第五章 結論與建議
5.2 對投資者與政策決策者之建議
本研究透過銀行績效的動態變化為觀察，再以分段成長模型來捕捉金融危機之變 化，端看政府干預前/後成長趨勢的差異表現，做為投資者慎選投資標的物與金融市場之 參考依據。
決策者可以學習南韓和香港所採用的有效方法，作為治療與補救的金融危機的手 段。在金融危機發生的早期階段，執行良好設計的救援政策，應用實施在適當的時機、
範圍和手段，以達到更好的效果。
5.3 研究限制及後續研究建議
本文所僅探討的轉折點為固定的時點(政府干預的時間)，並未詳加考慮時間的遞延效 果，時間之遞延效果可以留作後續研究。雖然本研究已使用分段潛伏趨勢模型分析法，
但研究過程中仍有一些值得後續研究，如：標準的事件研究方法，可更深更廣用於在未 來研究政府干預前後之差異比較，獲得更多的銀行財務績效影響的洞察力。因此，衡量 銀行的長期績效表現是值得未來後續研究。在金融危機期間，除銀行業之外，其他行業 可能也受惠於政府的幫助。金融危機期間政府干預對其他各種行業績效影響的有效性和 效率性，亦可採用分段潛伏趨勢模型進行探討，以獲得更多有關政府干預行為之資訊。
我們認為，欲探討特定事件前/後成長趨勢之變化，分段潛伏趨勢模型應是值得採行的研 究方法。
49
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附 錄：SAS 分析程式
.* ANALYSIS FOR BANK PERFORMANCE DATA WITH THE PIECEWISE LATENT TRAJECTORY MODEL;
DM 'LOG;CLEAR;ODSRESULTS;CLEAR;OUTPUT;CLEAR;';
OPTIONS REPLACE PS=60 NODATE PAGENO=1;
PROC IMPORT OUT=WORK.WHOLE DATAFILE= "D:\Bank.xls"
DBMS=EXCEL REPLACE;
SHEET="ttt";
GETNAMES=YES;
MIXED=NO;
SCANTEXT=YES;
USEDATE=YES;
SCANTIME=YES;
RUN;
PROC SORT DATA=WHOLE;
BY ECONOMY;
RUN;
PROC UNIVARIATE DATA=WHOLE;
BY ECONOMY;
VAR DA DF ABDL LRNPL ROA GRA;
TITLE 'SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS BY ECONOMY';
RUN;
55
PROC CORR DATA=WHOLE;
BY ECONOMY;
TITLE2 'CORRELATION';
VAR DA DF ABDL LRNPL ROA GRA;
RUN;
DATA GROWTH;
SET WORK.WHOLE;
IF INTERNATIONAL=0 THEN INT=0; ELSE INT=1;
IF ECONOMY='Japan' THEN DO; C1=1; C2=0; C3=0; C4=0; END;
56
PROC PRINT DATA=GROWTH;
TITLE 'THE DATA FOR 11 QUARTERS WITH TIME SETUPS T1 AND T2 FOR PIECEWISE GROWTH MODELING';
RUN;
%MACRO REPEAT(INDICATOR);
PROC MIXED DATA=GROWTH COVTEST;
CLASS ID;
MODEL &INDICATOR= C1-C4 INT T1 T2 C1*T1 C2*T1 C3*T1 C4*T1 C1*T2 C2*T2 C3*T2 C4*T2 T1*INT T2*INT / SOLUTION;
REPEATED / SUB=ID TYPE=AR(1);
RANDOM INTERCEPT T1 T2 / SUB=ID TYPE=UN;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT1_T1' T1 1 C1*T1 1 T1*INT 1/ E;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT1_T2' T2 1 C1*T2 1 T2*INT 1/E;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT1_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C1*T2 1 T2*INT 1 T1 -1 C1*T1 -1 T1*INT -1/E;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT0_T1' T1 1 C1*T1 1/E;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT0_T2' T2 1 C1*T2 1 / E;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_INT0_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C1*T2 1 T1 -1 C1*T1 -1 /E;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT1_T1' T1 1 C2*T1 1 T1*INT 1/E;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT1_T2' T2 1 C2*T2 1 T2*INT 1/E;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT1_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C2*T2 1 T2*INT 1 T1 -1 C2*T1 -1 T1*INT -1/E;
57
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT0_T1' T1 1 C2*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT0_T2' T2 1 C2*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_INT0_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C2*T2 1 T1 -1 C2*T1 -1 /E;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT1_T1' T1 1 C3*T1 1 T1*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT1_T2' T2 1 C3*T2 1 T2*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT1_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C3*T2 1 T2*INT 1 T1 -1 C3*T1 -1 T1*INT -1/E;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT0_T1' T1 1 C3*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT0_T2' T2 1 C3*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_INT0_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C3*T2 1 T1 -1 C3*T1 -1 /E;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT1_T1' T1 1 C4*T1 1 T1*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT1_T2' T2 1 C4*T2 1 T2*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT1_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C4*T2 1 T2*INT 1 T1 -1 C4*T1 -1 T1*INT -1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT0_T1' T1 1 C4*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT0_T2' T2 1 C4*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_INT0_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 C4*T2 1 T1 -1 C4*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT1_T1' T1 1 T1*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT1_T2' T2 1 T2*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT1_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 T2*INT 1 T1 -1 T1*INT -1;
58
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT0_T1' T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT0_T2' T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'TAIWAN_INT0_T2_VS_T1' T2 1 T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_TAIWAN_T1' C1*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_TAIWAN_T2' C1*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_TAIWAN_T1' C2*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_TAIWAN_T2' C2*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_VS_TAIWAN_T1' C3*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_VS_TAIWAN_T2' C3*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_VS_TAIWAN_T1' C4*T1 1;
ESTIMATE 'SINGAPORE_VS_TAIWAN_T2' C4*T2 1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_KOREA_T1' C1*T1 1 C2*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_KOREA_T2' C1*T2 1 C2*T2 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_HK_T1' C1*T1 1 C3*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_HK_T2' C1*T2 1 C3*T2 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_SINGAPORE_T1' C1*T1 1 C4*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'JAPAN_VS_SINGAPORE_T2' C1*T2 1 C4*T2 -1;
59
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_HK_T1' C2*T1 1 C3*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_HK_T2' C2*T2 1 C3*T2 -1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_SINGAPORE_T1' C2*T1 1 C4*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'KOREA_VS_SINGAPORE_T2' C2*T2 1 C4*T2 -1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_VS_SINGAPORE_T1' C3*T1 1 C4*T1 -1;
ESTIMATE 'HK_VS_SINGAPORE_T2' C3*T2 1 C4*T2 -1;
ESTIMATE 'INT0_T1_VSINT1_T1' T1*INT -1;
ESTIMATE 'INT0_T2_VSINT1_T2' T2*INT -1;
ESTIMATE 'INT0_T1_ACROSS_ECON' T1 1 C1*T1 0.2 C2*T1 0.2 C3*T1 0.2 C4*T1 0.2;
ESTIMATE 'INT0_T2_ACROSS_ECON' T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2;
ESTIMATE 'INT0_T2_VERSUS_T1_ACROSS_ECON' T1 -1 C1*T1 -0.2 C2*T1 -0.2 C3*T1 -0.2 C4*T1 -0.2 T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2;
ESTIMATE 'INT1_T1_ACROSS_ECON' T1 1 C1*T1 0.2 C2*T1 0.2 C3*T1 0.2 C4*T1 0.2 T1*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'INT1_T2_ACROSS_ECON' T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2 T2*INT 1;
ESTIMATE 'INT1_T2_VERSUS_T1_ACROSS_ECON' T1 -1 C1*T1 -0.2 C2*T1 -0.2 C3*T1 -0.2 C4*T1 -0.2 T1*INT -1 T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2 T2*INT 1;
60
ESTIMATE 'T1_ACROSS_ECON_INT' T1 1 C1*T1 0.2 C2*T1 0.2 C3*T1 0.2 C4*T1 0.2 T1*INT 0.5;
ESTIMATE 'T2_ACROSS_ECON_INT' T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2 T2*INT 0.5;
ESTIMATE 'T2_VERSUS_T1_ACROSS_ECON_INT' T1 -1 C1*T1 -0.2 C2*T1 -0.2 C3*T1 -0.2 C4*T1 -0.2 T1*INT -0.5 T2 1 C1*T2 0.2 C2*T2 0.2 C3*T2 0.2 C4*T2 0.2 T2*INT 0.5;
RUN;
%MEND REPEAT;
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for DA WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(DA)
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for DF WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(DF)
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for ABDL WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(ABDL)
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for LRNPL WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(LRNPL)
61
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for ROA WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(ROA)
TITLE 'GROWTH MODELING for GRA WITH TYPE=AR(1) FOR LEVEL-1 ERRORS AND TYPE=UN FOR LEVEL-2 ERRORS';
%REPEAT(GRA)