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源自 2015 年 12 月的升息，將不只是單次的行動，而更像是一個升息循環的開始。
值得注意的部分，倘若未來美國通膨數據呈現走高壓力，目前 FED 訂定的 2%通 膨目標將是一個相當重要的觀察重點，此將決定未來 FED 調升利率腳步快慢的 程度與幅度。
第二節 建議
以 2015 年 1 月為統計起始點，比較已開發與開發中國家股市、加權匯率、
原油進口國、出口國與 G7(已開發國家)主權債券殖利率以及債券基金流動走勢，
至 2015 年 Q3，都可明顯看出已開發國家股市表現優於開發中國家；已開發國家 加權匯率跟年初比呈現升值，開發中國家加權匯率則呈現完全反向的貶值走勢，
並從 2015 年下半年起有加速貶值的跡象(主要受人民幣突然大幅貶值的影響) ； 而原油進口國、出口國與 G7(已開發國家)主權債券殖利率走勢，則明顯看出原 油出口國的主權債券受傷相當慘重，相較 G7 主權債券殖利率呈現下跌，國際資 金有從開發中國家流入已開發國家(高品質國家債券)， 導致開發中國家主權債 券無論原油進口或出口國，殖利率都呈現上漲(漲多或漲少) ；最後比較已開發 與開發中國家債券基金流動走勢，開發中國家債券基金從 2015 年年中開始呈現 相當罕見的連續淨流出，已開發國家雖然流入也有不若以往的情況，這部分可能 跟 FED 將升息一直是 2015 年國際金融市場熱門議題有關。整個國際金融市場趨 向已開發、避開開發中國家的大趨勢，無論從股市、加權匯率、主權債券殖利率 以及債券基金流動走勢觀察，都相當明確並且持續進行中。
因此，本研究建議應留意市場風險逐漸轉向開發中國家的趨勢，宜避開新 興國家的股市、債市與相對美元的弱勢貨幣。
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Rule.
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