第五章 結論與建議
第二節 建議
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
56
而影響買賣實例選取作業之獨立性及客觀性。
二、後續研究建議
(一) 時間範圍拉長
本文僅針對高雄市地價基準地 95 年度至 99 年度共四次重估價業務進行分析，
時間範圍並不長，無法準確觀察信心水準值長期而言與景氣波動、市場價值變化 及其他重要總體經濟因素間之波動關係，未來隨基準地制度推動年期增加，應可 同步加長實證之時間範圍，做更全面及準確之觀察與估計。
(二) 空間範圍擴大
本文之實證地區僅包含高雄市，基準點樣本數過少易造成統計上之困難，其 所得之實證結果也無法有效反映全國基準地之評價情形，而基準地制度係推行於 全國各縣市，後續相關研究得增加實證地區，用更宏觀之角度觀察公部門評價之 部分調整情形。
(三) 市場資訊替代變數之推估方法改良
本文所運用之市場資訊替代變數推估方法，係由大量估價而得，而該替代變 數之品質，取決於產製特徵價格模型之資料庫是否能準確反映市場波動情形。誠 如本文所述，交易價格簡訊中交易案例之選取，可能因其目的為編列公告現值，
進而有避免價格差異過大之動機，造成案例選取上之偏誤，降低交易價格簡訊反 映市場真實情形之能力。
未來政府將積極推動實價登錄政策，後續研究應得藉此取得更加貼近市場真 實波動情形之交易資料，所產製之市場資訊替代變數品質應為更佳，進而得更加 精準地觀察信心水準值真實情形，以及估價人員之價格部分調整策略。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
57
參考文獻
1. 中文文獻
洪鴻智、張能政，2006，「不動產估價人員之價值探索過程：估價程序與參考點 的選擇」，『建築與規劃學報 』，第 7 期第 1 卷，頁 71-90。
游適銘，2009，「部分調整行為之估價平滑-以台中市地價基準地重估價為例」，
『2009 土地學術研討會論文集』。
游適銘，2007，「地價基準地與區段地價制度結合之研究」，內政部自行研究報告。
梁仁旭、陳奉瑤，2011，『不動產估價』，巨流政大書城經銷，台北。
賴靖雯，2008，「不動產估價師部分調整行為之研究-以不動產證券化重估價為例」，
國立政治大學碩士論文，台北市。
陳奉瑤，2011，『不動產估價行為研究』，中國地政研究所，台北。
廖彬傑、陳奉瑤、葉惠中、梁仁旭，2010，「應用克利金法於同質區之劃分」，『中 華民國 2010 都市計畫學會、區域科學學會、地區發展學會、住宅學會 2010 聯合年會暨論文研討會論文集』。
2. 英文文獻
Barkham, R. J. and Geltner, D. M., 1994, “Unsmoothing British valuation-based returns without assuming an efficient market”, Journal of Property Research, 11（2）, 81-95.
Baum, A. and Crosby, N., 1995, “Property Investment Appraisal”, Routledge, London.
Bond, S. A., S. Hwang, 2006, “An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?”, Working papers in Real Estate & Planning 17/06, Department of Real Estate & Planning, The University of Reading.
Bond, S. A., S. Hwang, 2005, “Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and
‧
Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices”, Paper presented at the AREUEA Annual Conference, Philadelphia, January 2005.
Brown, G. R., and G. A. Matysiak, 1998, “Valuation Smoothing without Temporal Aggregation”, Journal of Property Research, 15（2）:89-103.
Chen, Fong-Yao and Yu, Shi-Ming, 2009, "Client influence on valuation: Does language matter? A comparative analysis between Taiwan and Singapore", Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 27（1）:25-41.
Cho, H., Hawaguchi, Y. and J. Shilling, 2003,”Unsmoothing Commercial Property Returns: A Revision to Fisher-Geltner-Webb’s Unsmoothing Methodology”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 27:393-405.
Clayton, J., D. Geltner, and S. W. Hamilton, 2001, “Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuation: Evidence from Individual Appraisals”, Real Estate
Economics, 29（3） 337-360.
Crosby, N., Lavers, A. and Murdoch, J., 1998, “Property Valuation Variation and the ’Margin of Error’ in the UK”, Journal of Property Research, 15（4）, 305-330.
Diaz, J. and J. A. Hansz, 1997, “How Valuers Use the Value Opinions of Others”,
Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 15（3）:256-260.
Diaz, J. and M. Wolverton, 1998, “A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis”, Real Estate Economics, 26（2）:349-358.
Diaz, J., 1997, “An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimate on Appraisal Judgment”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 13（1）:57-66.
Fisher, J., Geltner, D. and R. Webb, 1994, “Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate:
A Comparison of Index Construction Methods”, Journal of Real Estate
Finance and Economics, 9:137-164.
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
59
Fisher, J., M. Miles, and R. Webb, 1999, “How Reliable are Commercial Property Appraisals? Another Look”, Real Estate Finance, 16（3）:9-15.
Gallimore, P. and Wolverton, M., 1999, “Client feedback and the role of the appraiser”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 18（3）:415-431
Geltner, D., 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story—A Comment”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=131459, Working Paper, Department of Finance, University of Cincinnati.
Geltner, D., 1991, “Smoothing in Appraisal-based Returns”, Journal of Real Estate
Finance and Economics, 4:327-345.
Geltner D., 1993a, “Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices”, Journal of
the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 21:141-166.
Geltner D., 1993b, “Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 8:325-345.
Hansz, J. A., 2004, “Prior Transaction Price Induced Smoothing: Testing and Calibrating the Quan-Quigley Model at the Disaggregate Level”, Journal of
Property Research, 21（4）:321-336.
Ibbotson, R., and L. B. Siegel, 1984, “Real Estate Return: a Comparison with Other Investment”, AREUEA, 12:219-242.
Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1973, “On the Psychology of Prediction”,
Psychological Review, 80（4）:237-251.
Kinnard, W. N., M. Lenk and E. M. Worzala, 1997, “Client Pressure in the Commercial Appraisal Industry: How Prevalent Is It?” Journal of Property
Valuation and Investment, 15（3）: 233–244.
Lai, T.Y., and K. Wang, 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of Story”, Real
Estate Economics, 26（3）: 511-535.
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
60
Levy, D. and Schuck, E., 1999, “The influence of clients on valuations”, Journal
of Property Investment and Finance, 17（4）:380-400.
McAllister, P., A. Baum, N. Crosby, P. Gallimore and A. Gray, 2003, “Appraiser behavior and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence”, Journal of Property Research, 20（3）: 261-280.
Mullainathan, S. and R. Thaler, 2001, “Behavioral Economics”, International
Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Oxford,
UK:Pergamon.Quan, D. C., and J. M. Quigley, 1991, “Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4:
127-146.
Ross, S., and R. Zisler, 1987, “Managing Real Estate Portfolio, Part 3: A Close look at Equity Real Estate Risk”, Goldman Sachs Real Estate Research, November.
Vanderford, S. E., Mimura, Y. and Sweancy, A. L., 2005, “A Hedonic price Comparison of Manufacture and Site-built homes in the Non-MSA USA”, The
Journal of Real Estate Research, 27（1）: 83-104.
‧
Sub CollectData() Dim oSheet
strCurWorkbook = ActiveWorkbook.Name '產生標題
For Each itm In vFiles
If itm <> ActiveWorkbook.Name Then Set oSheet =
CreateObject("Excel.application").Workb ooks.Open(ActiveWorkbook.Path & "\"
& itm).Sheets("報告")
Cells(wkR, wkC) = Left(itm, Len(itm) - 4) ' 案名(去掉副檔名)
Cells(wkR, wkC) = oSheet.Cells(3, 2) '基準地編 號"
‧
Function vDir(inp_path) Dim n As Integer End Function
‧
FILENAME DAT
'C:\Users\william\Desktop\R.prn'
;
DATA TEST;
INFILE DAT;
INPUT Price D96 D97 D98 D99 Road LnRoad Floor Area Capa lnAge Train Mrt Main Mall Med DN DM NR2 NR3 MR2 MR3 SR2 SR3@@;
LIBNAME resample 'C:\sasdata';
PROC SURVEYSELECT DATA=TEST METHOD=SRS n=382
OUT=SampleOut OUTALL;
RUN;
DATA TEST1model TEST1out;
SET SampleOut;
IF selected=0 THEN OUTPUT TEST1model;
IF selected=1 THEN OUTPUT TEST1out;
/*分別將樣本內及樣本外的資料建立虛擬變 數與平方項等*/
DATA TEST2model;
SET SampleOut;
ppPrice=Price;
SET TEST2model;
PROC PRINT DATA=TEST2model;
VAR selected Price ppPrice;
RUN;
/*分別樣本內資料OLS*/
PROC REG DATA=TEST2model;
MODEL Price= D96 D97 D98 D99 Road LnRoad Floor Area Capa lnAge Train Mrt Main Mall Med DN DM NR2 NR3 MR2 MR3 SR2 SR3 / DW SPEC COLLINOINT;
OUTPUT OUT=test21
PREDICTED=yhat1 RESIDUAL=resid1;
RUN;
DATA resample.NO1out;
/*以此檔名resample.NO1out貼上MAPE和 HR的set叫出資料*/
SET TEST21;
/*model1(500m)的MAPE*/
DATA m1;
SET TEST2model ; IF selected=1;
RUN;
DATA m11;
SET test21;
IF selected=1;
RUN;
‧
keep Price yhat1;
RUN;
/*model1(無GIS變數)的HIT RATE*/
DATA TESTm1HR;
SET resample.NO1out;
ppPrice=Price;
yyhat1=yhat1;
pp1=(ppPrice-yyhat1)/ppPrice;
mape=abs(pp1);
hr=0;
IF (mape<=0.1) THEN hr=1;
hr2=0;
IF (mape<=0.2) THEN hr2=1;
TITLE '重複實驗第一次90%預測 10%--model1的HIT RATE';
PROC FREQ;
TABLE hr hr2;
RUN;