第五章 結論與建議
5.2 後續研究建議
ㄧ、其他航站以及其他變數的擴充：本研究之主要對象為高雄國際機場之各 種運量，後續研究者可以試著以國際及國內航線之座位數、航線數需求 作為研究之對象，並建立各航線之預測模式。
二、其他統計方式的運用：本研究方法採取時間數列方法作為研究工具，針 對短期需求模式建立預測模式；後續研究者可試著採取其他研究方法，
針對短期之需求建立預測模式，例如多元迴歸、指數平滑等方式的使用，
來做進ㄧ步的預測能力比較探討。
三、自變項時間週期的選擇：本研究所探討之資料為民國 93 年 1 月至 97 年 12 月的月資料，預測之對象也為民國 98 年 1 月至 5 月的月資料，模式預 測能力準確；後續研究者可採用不同頻率（週、季）作為研究資料，探 討何種頻率下的資料有更佳的呈現。
四、研究時間的選取：本研究的時間為93 年 1 月到 97 年 12 月為範圍，其 ARIMA 模式的短期預測能力皆有相當的精準度；後續研究者可試著用更 短期的時間，如三年，來作為研究的時間範圍，甚至將時間擴充到十年 以上，並針對長期以及短期的模式來做區辨，看何種的解釋力最佳。
五、其他介入變數的影響：研究中之介入變數為國際油價及兩岸三通的政策 開放因素，對於航空運輸市場產生相關性之影響；後續研究者可建立此 其他介入變數之研究，並探討隨之而來的影響及衝擊。
參考文獻
ㄧ、中文報告
1﹒林聰明、吳水丕，「指數平滑法之選擇與應用」，華泰書局，民國 71 年。
2﹒吳柏林，「時間數列分析導論」，華泰書局，民國 84 年。
5﹒陳耀茂，「時間數列分析的 SPSS 使用手冊」，鼎茂出版社，民國 93 年。
4﹒南部國際空運發展專案研究－產業及空運需求評析，交通部民用航空局，
民國95 年。
5﹒南部國際機場設置於高雄彌陀海濱場址可行性研究案，高雄縣政府，民國 98 年。
6﹒溫裕弘，「航空運量預測與航空網路設計之研究-應用灰色理論」，國立交通 大學運輸研究所碩士論文，民國86 年。
7﹒莊明穎，「產業結構特性對貨運需求之影響--以臺灣地區為例」，國立交通 大學運輸研究所碩士論文，民國86 年。
8﹒黃皇基，「台灣地區航空貨運需求相關變數分析與預測」，國立臺灣海洋大 學航運管理學系，民國 86 年。
9﹒陳俊叡，「南部第二國際機場關鍵成功因素之研究」，長榮大學經營管理研 究所，民國 88 年。
10﹒陳欣欣，「台鐵旅運需求與預測之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理學系碩 士論文，民國 90 年。
11﹒楊蕙如，「國內外機場規劃設計規範之初探－以高雄國際機場為例」，國立 成功大學交通管理學系碩士論文，民國90 年。
12﹒鄭益興，「以類神經網路建立國際港口營運量預測模式-以花蓮港為例」，
國立東華大學企管系，民國90 年。
13﹒張雲萍，「國際航空客運之需求預測模式」，國立交通大學運輸研究所碩 士論文，民國 93 年。
14﹒楊文瑋，「中正國際機場需求預測模式建構與評估─時間序列之應用」，淡 江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國93 年。
15﹒林佳慧，「台灣國際航空貨運量之預測」，國立高雄第一科技大學運輸倉 儲營運所，民國93 年。
16﹒蘇承正，「中國大陸經濟發展對亞洲航空站運量之分析與預測」，國立交 通大學運輸科技與管理學系碩士論文，民國94 年。
17﹒張惠如，「應用模糊時間序列預測與分析桃園國際航空站運量」，國立臺 灣海洋大學航運管理學系，民國95 年。
18﹒邱妍菁，「高速公路短期交通資訊之灰預測模式」，逢甲大學交通工程與 管理所，民國 95 年。
19﹒蔡宗憲、楊治綱、魏健宏，「短期列車旅運需求之類神經網路預測模式建 構與評估 1」，運輸計畫季刊，第 35 卷第四期，民國 95 年，頁 475～頁 506。
20﹒林伯倫，「由產業觀點分析航空貨運需求之研究－以南部區域高科技產業 為例」，國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩士論文，民國 96 年。
21﹒陳俊男，「臺灣地區國際商港營運量預測模式之探討」，逢甲大學交通工 程與管理所，民國 96 年。
22﹒鍾政棋、徐嘉陽，「兩岸三地整體船噸結構及其成長趨勢之分析 1」，運輸 計畫季刊，第 36 卷第四期，民國 96 年，頁 425～頁 450。
二、英文報告
1 ﹒ Adler, N.,Berechman,”Meausring airport quality from the airlines”
Transportation Policy , 2001 , pp.171-181。
2﹒Box, George E. P.,” Time series analysis：forecasting and control” San Francisco：Holden-Day , 1976。
3﹒Cryer, Jonathan D., Time series analysis, Boston : Duxbury Press , 1986。
4﹒Hamilton, James D , Time series analysis , Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press, 1994。
5﹒Matthews, ”Forecasting Peak passenger Flow at Airports”，Transportation Journal 22(1),pp55-72 1995。
三、網路資料
1﹒交通部民用航空局：http://www.caa.gov.tw 2﹒交通部運輸研究所：http://www.iot.gov.tw
3﹒高雄國際航空站：http://www.kia.gov.tw 4﹒台灣高鐵公司：http://www.thsrc.com.tw 5﹒經濟部能源局：http://www.moeaec.gov.tw
附 錄
國際油價對國內到站架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_65
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98127998 Standard Error of Rho .02528786
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .05332437 R-Squared .00284349
Adjusted R-Squared -.03214446
Standard Error 103.08486 Durbin-Watson 2.4301211Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 1727.24 1727.241 Residuals 57 605709.89 10626.489
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T 油價 .73278370 1.8175831 .05332437 .40316379 .68833605
國際油價對國內離站架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_66
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98131681 Standard Error of Rho .02526321
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .04442954 R-Squared .00197398
Adjusted R-Squared -.03304447
Standard Error 103.0444 Durbin-Watson 2.4474684Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 1197.09 1197.086 Residuals 57 605234.45 10618.148
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 .61007601 1.8169610 .04442954 .33576725 .73827919
國際油價對國內到站人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_67
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .9760913 Standard Error of Rho .02854089
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .14290969 R-Squared .02042318
Adjusted R-Squared -.01394794
Standard Error 11345.813 Durbin-Watson 2.7065014Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 152978700.9 152978700.9 Residuals 57 7337466070.1 128727474.9
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 216.27801 198.39581 .14290969 1.0901339 .28024132
國際油價對國內離站人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_68
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97887225 Standard Error of Rho .02684859
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .10515925 R-Squared .01105847
Adjusted R-Squared -.02364123
Standard Error 10119.681 Durbin-Watson 2.6597532Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 65272896.3 65272896.3 Residuals 57 5837252944.8 102407946.4
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 141.94593 177.79655 .10515925 .79836155 .42797458
國際油價對國內到站貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_69
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 10 because:
Maximum number of iterations was exceeded.
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .94837336 Standard Error of Rho .04164463
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .23881899 R-Squared .42703451
Adjusted R-Squared .333948
Standard Error 100.05043 Durbin-Watson 2.637465Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 34510.77 34510.772 Residuals 57 570575.02 10010.088
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 2.9998725 1.6156393 .23881899 1.8567712 .06851391
國際油價對國內離站貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_70
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97277025 Standard Error of Rho .03043309
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .01070958 R-Squared .0001147 Adjusted R-Squared -.034969 Standard Error 114.98639 Durbin-Watson 2.5389349
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 86.45 86.450 Residuals 57 753646.58 13221.870
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 .16152516 1.9975855 .01070958 .08086020 .93583638
國際油價對國際入境架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_59
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .9876903 Standard Error of Rho .02053923
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .07910992 R-Squared .00625838
Adjusted R-Squared -.02860975
Standard Error 64.365444 Durbin-Watson 2.2498866Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 1487.20 1487.1980 Residuals 57 236145.89 4142.9103
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 .68464875 1.1427104 .07910992 .59914458 .55145048
國際油價對國際出境架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_60
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98761483 Standard Error of Rho .0206017
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .08621586 R-Squared .00743317
Adjusted R-Squared -.02739373
Standard Error 64.491964 Durbin-Watson 2.2426872Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 1775.42 1775.4181 Residuals 57 237075.16 4159.2134
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 .74801154 1.1448895 .08621586 .65334822 .51615875
國際油價對國際入境人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_61
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 9 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97642302 Standard Error of Rho .02834458
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .23531346 R-Squared .32537243
Adjusted R-Squared .2522276
Standard Error 15361.998 Durbin-Watson 2.4783829Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 788502732.0 788502732.0 Residuals 57 13451486256.5 235990987.0
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 491.31445 268.78538 .23531346 1.8279061 .07279888
國際油價對國際出境人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_62
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 8 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97870075 Standard Error of Rho .02695617
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .12494113 R-Squared .01561029
Adjusted R-Squared -.0189297
Standard Error 15603.038 Durbin-Watson 2.479554Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 220057901.1 220057901.1 Residuals 57 13876922647.6 243454783.3
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 260.55926 274.06096 .12494113 .95073466 .34575312
國際油價對國際入境貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_63
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98191992 Standard Error of Rho .02485589
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .30673365 R-Squared .54085533
Adjusted R-Squared .47229906
Standard Error 284.8799 Durbin-Watson 2.3124871Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 480434.4 480434.44 Residuals 57 4625923.8 81156.56
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 12.231742 5.0272798 .30673365 2.4330737 .01813136
國際油價對國際出境貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_64
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98321602 Standard Error of Rho .02395623
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .25275871 R-Squared .53388697
Adjusted R-Squared .42104089
Standard Error 394.47696 Durbin-Watson 2.464202Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 605343.8 605343.83 Residuals 57 8869888.3 155612.07
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
油價 13.752313 6.9726253 .25275871 1.9723292 .05343048
兩岸三通對國內到站架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_53
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98174531 Standard Error of Rho .02497452
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .04941695 R-Squared .00244204
Adjusted R-Squared -.03256
Standard Error 103.05223 Durbin-Watson 2.4338684Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 1481.85 1481.847 Residuals 57 605326.40 10619.761
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 12.935762 34.629616 .04941695 .37354621 .71012773
兩岸三通對國內離站架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_54
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .9816968 Standard Error of Rho .02500737
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .02871213 R-Squared .00082439
Adjusted R-Squared -.03423441
Standard Error 103.0604 Durbin-Watson 2.4519321Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 499.51 499.514 Residuals 57 605422.48 10621.447
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 7.5105786 34.633106 .02871213 .21686125 .82909081
兩岸三通對國內到站人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_55
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97840817 Standard Error of Rho .02713868
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .05335978 R-Squared .00284727
Adjusted R-Squared -.03214055
Standard Error 11438.118 Durbin-Watson 2.7397886Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 21293663.3 21293663.3 Residuals 57 7457340955.0 130830543.1
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 1552.9403 3849.3212 .05335978 .40343226 .68813970
兩岸三通對國內離站人次的影響
MODEL: MOD_56
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98018131 Standard Error of Rho .02601213
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .06316165 R-Squared .00398939
Adjusted R-Squared -.03095835
Standard Error 10151.391 Durbin-Watson 2.6691858Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 23527126.7 23527126.7 Residuals 57 5873892236.0 103050741.0
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 1631.0770 3413.6231 .06316165 .47781402 .63460993
兩岸三通對國內到站貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_57
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 3 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .9729368 Standard Error of Rho .03034116
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .28788951 R-Squared .46288037
Adjusted R-Squared .36070073
Standard Error 97.545141 Durbin-Watson 2.6319463Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 49013.06 49013.062 Residuals 57 542358.11 9515.055
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 74.684716 32.906482 .28788951 2.2696050 .02703250
兩岸三通對國內離站貨物的影響
MODEL: MOD_58
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 3 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .97434555 Standard Error of Rho .02955146
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .22153258 R-Squared .21907668
Adjusted R-Squared .11571095
Standard Error 112.10762 Durbin-Watson 2.4984017Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 36972.16 36972.161 Residuals 57 716382.75 12568.118
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 64.825232 37.795648 .22153258 1.7151507 .09174979
兩岸三通對國際入境架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_47
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98826743 Standard Error of Rho .02005487
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .14162168 R-Squared .0200567
Adjusted R-Squared -.01432728
Standard Error 63.819296 Durbin-Watson 2.2454031Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 4751.57 4751.5729 Residuals 57 232155.44 4072.9025
Variables in the Equation:
B SEB BETA T SIG T
三通 23.097085 21.384076 .14162168 1.0801068 .28464373
兩岸三通對國際出境架次的影響
MODEL: MOD_48
Split group number: 1 Series length: 60 No missing data.
Conclusion of estimation phase.
Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because:
All parameter estimates changed by less than .001
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Estimate of Autocorrelation Coefficient
Rho .98825642 Standard Error of Rho .02006422
Cochrane-Orcutt Estimates
Multiple R .15690035 R-Squared .02461772
Adjusted R-Squared -.00960622
Standard Error 63.823064Multiple R .15690035 R-Squared .02461772