未來研究方向與建議

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第二節 未來研究方向與建議

由於本研究在實證分析上存有一些限制，未來可繼續突破這些限制，茲提出 幾點建議如下:

過去探討景氣循的文獻皆以 GDP 為資料，本研究企圖探討其他可能造成景 氣循環的變數，但結果並不如預期，原因是原油價格與黃金價格皆有太多干擾因 素，並不能完全表徵景氣，因此不建議繼續以原油價格與黃金價格來探討景氣循 環。

本研究在模型配適方面，由於套件的限制，使用固定轉移機率的馬可夫轉換 模型進行估計，未來可調整以時間轉移機率進行估計，加強模型的解釋能力。

由於國發會公布之景氣循環判定日期只到 2009 年，故在 2009 年之後的資料 皆無法針對景氣加以探討，未來待國發會公布後即可更完整的探討景氣循環。

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