本文中,我們建立一個勞動供給內生化的小型開放內生成長模型,並且透過 生產函數,我們試圖將貨幣引進經濟體系。在購買力平價說成立之下,根據本國 資本與外國債券的無套利條件,本國資本邊際生產力等於固定參數。當央行以名 目貨幣供給成長率指標作為貨幣政策時,透過固定的本國資本邊際生產力,本國 資本-實質貨幣餘額比與勞動雇用量彼此之間具有互補關係。若勞動的生產彈性 較低,促使本國資本-實質貨幣餘額比與勞動雇用量之間的敏感程度(彈性)較 小,則經濟體系的均衡具有不確定的特性,此時民眾的自我信念將足以驅動景氣 的波動。若勞動的生產彈性較高,促使本國資本-實質貨幣餘額比與勞動雇用量 之間的敏感程度(彈性)較大,則經濟體系的均衡存在確定的特性;此時民眾若 預料到未來央行將提升名目貨幣供給成長率,則短期下本國貨幣貶值率與資本
(產出)成長率將暫時增加,並且同時降低本國實質貨幣成長率,直到長期下所 有經濟變數成長率緩慢調整至原先固定的本國消費成長率,故均衡成長路徑上的 貨幣超中立性成立。當央行以通貨膨脹率為貨幣政策的指標時,透過資產間的無 套利條件,本國資本與實質貨幣的邊際報酬率皆等於固定參數,此時經濟體系的 均衡必具有確定的特性,則民眾的自我信念與景氣波動無關。此外,由於勞動雇 用量、本國消費-實質貨幣餘額比,以及本國資本-實質貨幣餘額比皆不需經過 動態調整過程,即可瞬時調整至靜止均衡狀態,則本國資本成長率與實質貨幣成 長率也都不需要動態調整過程,馬上就能達到均衡成長路徑,並且等於固定的消 費成長率。此時可想而知,即使央行欲提升本國通貨膨脹率,於長、短期下皆無 法影響任何經濟變數的成長率;增加的通貨膨脹率只能透過購買力平價說,促使 本國貨幣貶值率同幅的上漲。據此,在本文中,當央行以通貨膨脹率指標作為貨 幣政策時,經濟體系內的相關經濟變數都將以穩定的成長率進行成長,並且能有 效的避免景氣受外在不確定因素的影響而產生波動,但是卻同時失去貨幣政策影 響短期經濟成長率的有效性。
附錄 A
本附錄擬說明利用交易成本(transaction cost)的概念將貨幣引進經濟體系的 模型架構,與貨幣藉由生產函數參與經濟體系的方法具有一致性。首先我們根據 Shaw, et al. (2005)的方法,假設本國生產函數為勞動內生化的
Ak
生產函數,而且 生產者在生產的過程中,必須額外支付交易成本ψ
(例如廠商採買生產要素時,必需透過銀行進行交易所需的手續費)。此外,遵循 Pagano (1993)及 Sala-i-Martin (1995)的設定,我們假設該交易成本
ψ
為金融發展指標 F (the indicator of financial development)的函數,並且ψ
′ < ,0ψ
′′ ≥ ;因此,本國的淨產出 y 為: 0( )
1
y= Aknβ⎡⎣ −
ψ
F ⎤⎦ , 0< < ,β
10 < < F 1
, (A1) 其中交易成本ψ
必須滿足lim
F→0ψ( ) F = 1
,以及lim
F→1ψ( ) 1 F <
的條件。接著,我們根據 Gylfason and Herbersson (2001)與 Gylfason and Zoega (2002)利用本國實 質貨幣-國內實質生產毛額比m Akn/ β來衡量本國的金融發展程度,則本國的金 融發展指標F =m Akn/ β。據此,我們令本國交易成本函數
ψ
為:1
1 0 m Akn
α
ψ
= −ψ
⎛⎜⎝ β ⎞⎟⎠− , 0<ψ
0 < , 10 < <
α1
, (A2) 我們將式(A2)代回式(A1),可得本國的淨生產函數為:1
y=
ψ
0A k mα α −α αβn , (A3) 仔細觀察式(A3)與正文中的式(2.3),兩者的函數形式具有一致性;因此,我們可 以直接推論,不論貨幣藉由交易成本的概念進入經濟體系,或是透過生產函數直 接參與經濟體系,這兩種方法都具有一致性。附錄 B
附錄 C
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