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第五章 結論
從過去的許多文獻中可知,金融體系可以透過各種不同的管道或政府政策影
響資本累積,進而促進經濟發展。
本文研究假定經濟體系為無窮交替的兩期跨代模型,以 Greenwood and
Smith (1997)的模型架構為基礎,並加入政府部門且多考慮經濟個體的風險趨避 程度後,探討政府支出政策如何影響經濟個體在不同金融體系下的長期投資比例、
經濟成長率及社會福利,並輔以數值模擬加以說明。
目前文獻上指出銀行導向與市場導向對經濟成長的貢獻沒有一定的優劣,皆
是在沒有考慮經濟個體的風險趨避程度下加以探討,而本文主要發現在加入政府
角色並多考慮經濟個體的風險趨避程度後,在不同的政府支出下,利用銀行或股
票市場進行長期投資所促進的經濟成長率將可辨別優劣。利用股票市場進行長期 投資後,可得到經濟成長最大的最適稅率為政府支出分額 (資本份額 ),而
Barro (1990)指出使經濟成長最大的最適稅率為政府支出份額 (資本份額 ),
其中本文假設 ,此時最適稅率為 0.5,此時最適稅率將與文獻相符,在此
稅率下,不論經濟個體的風險趨避程度為何,利用銀行進行長期投資所促進的經
濟成長率亦是最大,亦即使經濟成長最大的最適稅率,在銀行與股票市場皆相
同。
經濟個體利用銀行或股票市場進行資產配置後,將了解自己的流動性偏好,
爾後進行消費獲得效用,本文將每期經濟個體所獲得的效用折現加總,分別探討
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銀行或股票市場所形成的社會福利差異,並利用數值模擬加以分析,主要發現無
法區分何種導向的金融體制何者能促成較大的社會福利,且即使有較大的經濟成
長率亦無法保證能獲得較大的社會福利。
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其中將 與 兩者皆為常數,因此分別以 與 表示,並將 代
入上式,可得到:
其中
可得到社會福利為:
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附錄三
經濟個體利用股票市場進行資產配置後,將所獲得的報酬進行消費可獲得效
用,並將每一期經濟個體所獲得的效用折現加總後,可得到社會福利函數如下:
其中
為一常數,因此以 表示,
並將 代入上式,可得到:
其中
可得到社會福利為:
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(1) 的正負號判斷
因
,
→,
→→
,
→ (2) 的正負號判斷的正負號主要取決於 ,其中本文假設 ,因此以 判
斷:
,→ , →
→ , → ,→ , →
→ , → 綜合(1)(2)可知:
,
,
數學推導結果與數值模擬(圖二、圖三及圖四)結果相同。