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第 五 章 結論
本文以 Lai and Chin (2013) 模型為基礎架構，引進資本使用率的設定，透過 貨幣內生成長模型，在投資有無調整成本的情況下，進行通貨膨脹率指標的政 策分析，並探討提高通貨膨脹率指標對經濟成長率的影響，其中，為了使投資 有調整成本的情況下存在可析解，我們將在折舊函數最小的條件下討論。研究 結果顯示：
當通貨膨脹率增加，無論投資是否有調整成本，皆會產生兩種效果—直接 效果與間接效果。直接效果發生的原因為民眾因通貨膨脹率的增加，使得持有 貨幣的成本增加，他們會減少商品的消費數量，導致消費成長率下降，不利於 經濟成長率。而間接效果發生的原因為民眾減少持有貨幣，致使貨幣邊際生產 力增加，有利於經濟成長率。
其中，間接效果又可分解為資本使用率效果與資產組合效果。在投資無調 整成本的情況下，通貨膨脹率的增加，會導致資本使用率的降低以及資產組合 的改變，前者不利於經濟成長率，而後者有利於經濟成長率。在投資有調整成 本的情況下，通貨膨脹率的增加，不確定對於資本使用率的影響，但仍然會改 變資產組合，前者不確定對於經濟成長率的影響，而後者有利於經濟成長率。
整體而言，無論投資是否有調整成本，資本使用率效果皆會大於資產組合效果，
表示兩種情況下間接效果均有利於經濟成長率。
此外，在投資有調整成本的情況下，因為動態體系呈現不確定性，故本文 採取誠實的政府設定，將動態體系轉變為確定性。
為了簡化分析，本文假設總要素生產力為外生參數，然而既有文獻表明，
資本使用率的高低對於總要素生產力有相當重要的影響。因此未來研究可以考 慮將總要素生產力內生化，如此能夠更正確的體現資本使用率的效果。
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附錄二：政府預算限制式的推導
假設政府可藉由發行貨幣與國內債券來融通對私部門的移轉性支付及國內 債券的利息，如此方能使政府達到預算平衡的目的。是故，政府預算限制式設 定如下：
M˙ P +
B˙
P = T r + RB
P (1)
式(1)可改寫成：
M˙ M
M P + B˙
B B
P = T r + RB
P (2)
基於 m = M/P 、b = B/P ，可得以下關係式：
˙ m m = M˙
M − P˙ P = M˙
M − π (3a)
˙b b =
B˙ B − P˙
P = B˙
B − π (3b)
將 m = M/P 、b = B/P 及式(3a)、式(3b)代入式(2)，整理並移項，即可得 到式(2.32)之結果。
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