AIM OF STUDY

The above paragraphs demonstrated the importance of water in various civil and interstate conflicts. This thesis will focus on the interactions over transboundary rivers and the usage of water resources as foreign policy tools, all through examining the downstream-upstream riparian balance and its implications for inter-state dialogues over shared rivers.

Through two case studies of regional superpower and hydro hegemon India's water disputes with its neighbors, namely Pakistan and Bangladesh, the author would like to examine how water shortage produces cooperation and conflict over the shared water resources and how this further shapes inter-state relations. India is the upstream riparian of both the Indus and the Ganges River, thus having a geographical advantage over Pakistan and Bangladesh. After the breakup of British India, the newly formed countries faced a number of issues, including the sharing of transboundary rivers. The issues have been addressed at the international level; however, the solutions seem to have provided temporary relief that has not taken into account the changes in water demand and supply, as well as the broader regional context. India and Pakistan have until recently managed their shared water interests over the Indus River through the World Bank-brokered Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 by Prime Minister of India Shri Jawaharlal Nehru and President of Pakistan Field Marshall Mohammad Ayub Khan. The treaty divided the Indus River and its tributaries between the signatory countries (World Bank 1960) On the other hand, the Indian Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda and the then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed signed the Ganges Water Treaty of 1996, thus agreeing on a 30 year water sharing bilateral agreement. (Rahaman 2006) While the Indus Water Treaty survived three Indo-Pakistani wars, prevented India from exploiting its upper riparian status and was generally seen as a shining example of successful water negotiations, the treaty between India and Bangladesh still left the lower-riparian state in

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a disadvantaged position. Both treaties have had its supporters and critics, however due to increased water demand in the past couple of years, India is looking for new ways within the treaties to increase its water shares.

The thesis argues that cooperation and conflict are not mutually exclusive, an either/or scenario as it is often viewed in the literature, but rather that both concepts can coexist.

Thinking about conflict and cooperation on a continuum makes it hard for us to evaluate the actual situation in water negotiations, for example, the coexistence of joint data sharing between some Indian and Bangladeshi institutions on one hand and nuanced political conflict on the Ganges River on the other hand. To address such issues, this thesis proposes to follow Mirumachi's TWINS matrix that enables us to evaluate cooperation over water issues in a broader context, thus avoiding the black-and-white analysis. In this way, the thesis analyses the simultaneous interaction of conflict and cooperation within the inter-state water disputes. Furthermore, the thesis aims to identify the gaps between the literature on water-related conflicts and the water management policies in the selected cases.

The topic of water security and conflict has been more actively researched in the last couple of decades, (Gleditsch, Owen, et al. 2006) mostly due to the ever-depleting water resources resulting from industrial use, population growth and consequently the climate change. To further link the two concepts, this thesis hopes to explore the following questions in relation to the chosen cases:

First, to provide academic background on the importance of water security as a threat-multiplier or cause for conflict and furthermore, to apply these findings to the two case studies and analyze the possible discrepancies.

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Secondly, to use the literature and the case studies to discuss the questions of transboundary water resources, the conditions under which states cooperate with each other on this issue, and on the other hand, the conditions under which they abandon collaboration and instead find conflict to be more beneficial. The thesis aims to look into the water-related treaties between the two countries in the broader context of the increased demand due to population growth, irrigation needs, hydropower and industrialization; interstate political and economic relations and the country's involvement in international institutions. Where there are treaties dealing with transboundary water, how have the water treaties helped to build cooperation and how have they evolved with the changing conditions? Furthermore, do the treaties provide equitable solutions to water distribution, or do they further highlight the power relations between the upstream and downstream riparians? To answer this question, this thesis hopes to look into the differences between the upstream-downstream power relations in the two chosen cases.

According to some scholars in the literature review, conflicts arise when the downstream riparian is powerful enough to make claims and presents a considerable military threat.

Unlike most of the literature so far, the thesis also tries to define the interstate water relations in terms of interaction, instead of the black-white scenario of conflict or cooperation.

Lastly, the case study and concluding chapters will focus on the current situation and hope to demonstrate the policies and negotiations in the chosen cases, and the new developments in the water treaties and if they accommodate recent challenges of water management.

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立 政 治 大 學

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l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

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