WATER SECURITY

Relevance of water security can be demonstrated by just thinking about the importance of water firstly for human biological needs for fluid and water and secondly for the ecosystem. Food production heavily depends on water supplies and thirty-six percent of all food is produced on artificially irrigated land. The percentage is as high as fifty percent in countries such as China, Egypt, India and Jordan along with many others.

Further analyses try and demonstrate the impact of China’s increasing water shortage on global food security. (Postel 1997)

Water, food and energy nexus is a framework that shows us how the three parts are interconnected; specifically it tries to explain how management of one can affect the other two. The main objective of the nexus is to ensure sufficient amount of water, food and energy to meet the needs of the growing world population. (GRACE Communications Foundation 2014) Depletion and at the same time mismanagement of any of the three

‧

國

立 政 治 大 學

‧

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

32

resources can lead to a series of issues, while good governance of one always needs to include the other two as well. In most cases facing water shortage issues, scholars warn that the water mismanagement long predates the droughts; therefore the main reason for water scarcity is the government’s inability to adapt to and mitigate the effects of water scarcity and increased demand by the growing population. (De Châtel 2014) Although all three components of the nexus are interconnected, this thesis will focus on the water part of the nexus and try to show how scarcity of water can cause or exacerbate civil and regional security issues. These issues stem from the limited ability of our planet to supply the increasing demands of the growing population.

When assessing the value of water, its irreplaceable nature can be linked to human well-being, economic growth and even national security. The biggest problem regarding the water nexus is (mis)management, which if not changed will lead to serious global issues, starting with geopolitical disputes. A hint of future problems can be sensed whenever drought strikes certain area and consequently food prices go up. In a world where food demands are getting higher and higher, this poses a serious problem. However, agriculture is not the only industry that relies heavily on water supply, although it is without a doubt the biggest consumer – energy sector, industries and urban areas with domestic needs all require their fair share of water supplies. Agriculture accounts for 71%

of water consumption, followed by the industry sector (including energy sector) which uses 16% and is expected to rise due to industrialization of countries such as China and India. Domestic use of water accounts for 14% of water supplies. (World Economic Forum Water Initiative 2011, 29) We are thus faced with a question of how to start producing more with less water. Investing in agricultural technologies has traditionally been one of the most neglected areas. Common action supported by strong institutions

‧

國

立 政 治 大 學

‧

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

33

could address this, however weak international regime and a complex arrangement of tariffs and subsidies has (until now) only exacerbated this problem. (World Economic Forum Water Initiative 2011, 24)

Economists and experts have examined the relationship between water and economic growth, showing that growth is positively influenced by increased water use. If we categorize water as a non-excludable good provided by the government, then scarcity can mean that the government needs to invest in less accessible alternatives such as dams, desalinations plants, and other infrastructure, meaning that the costs would exceed gains in productivity. At the same time, the absolute availability of water may restrict the utilization. However, studies from 2004 show that so far, these two scenarios are not as widespread as some would claim, hence sceptics suggest exercising caution when giving warnings of future (economic) water crisis. At the same time, they admit that in the case of water-stressed countries, empirical analyses do not reject the adverse effects moderate to extreme water scarcity would have on economic growth. They conclude with an observation that water stress varies between and within countries; with transboundary water resources and limited outsourcing options presenting an additional obstacle to efficient water utilization. (Barbier 2004)

Why has the issue of water security not been properly addressed? If we look at the table below, we can see that natural water distribution has been (unfairly) divided between the arbitrary boundaries of nation-states (Allal and O'Connor 1999, 110):

‧

國

立 政 治 大 學

‧

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

34

Figure 5 Water Availability in the Middle East (Allal and O'Connor 1999)

The predicted water availability shows a significant drop in the already water stressed countries. The area has been known for its many cases of river water diversion schemes, for example water supply has been listed as one of the reasons for the 1967 Israeli occupation of the West Bank. (Allal and O'Connor 1999) Without a sustainable solution, water security in this as well as in many other areas around the world could become a source of competition.

Because water is so essential to all human activity, it seems obvious that lack of water could lead to disputes over remaining resources. Indeed, there is a thriving discourse that links water shortage to migration, ethnic or international conflicts, war and terrorism.

This link will be further discussed in the next section, with some attention also given to the importance of shared waters in international relations.