Chart 4-9: The South Stream and Nabucco Gas Pipelines
4.3.6 Competition for Central Asian energy: India’s Strategies
4.3.6 Competition for Central Asian energy: India’s Strategies
Since 1991 India has been actively interacting with the five Central Asian countries to establish stronger diplomatic relations through technical personnel training, loans and other assistance. The “India-Central Asia Dialogue” was organized and held as well. India's goal is to establish a trust relationship with the Central Asian countries via those activities, and to expand that relationship into a level of energy cooperation. The TAPI pipeline is supported implicitly by the United States, which starts from Turkmenistan's Dauletabad gas field, pass through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and finally arrive at Fazilka in India.
With India’s increasing economic development, there is a growing demand for energy resources, and its external energy dependence is constantly increasing. However, India’s traditional source, Iran, is somehow not stable as an oil supplier. (After the United States broke diplomatic relations with Iran in the 1980s, the United States has repeatedly accused Iran of secretly making nuclear weapons. Consequently, there is a bad relationship between these two countries.257) Fearing that buying too much oil from Iran may irritate the United States (the U.S. having announced an embargo on Iranian oil),258 India is urgently looking for new sources of gas and oil and therefore the energy-rich Central Asian region has become a new option. 259
257 Borger, Julian. “US accuses Iran of secret nuclear weapons plan,” The Guardian, Dec 14, 2002, available at:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/dec/14/iraq.iran, (accessed: 20140503).
258 Lakshmanan, Indira A.R. and Pratish Narayanan, “U.S. May Sanction India over Level of Iran-Oil Imports,”
Bloomberg, March 15, 2012, available at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/u-s-may-sanction-india-over-level-of-iran-oil-imports.html (accessed: 20140505).
259 Hemant,S., Persis Taraporevala, Kailash K. Prasad and Rani D. Mullen, “India Central Asia Backgrounder,”
Indian Development Cooperation Research, Centre for Policy Research, Jan 6, 2014, available at:
http://idcr.cprindia.org/p/page-4.html (accessed: 20140505).
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Since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, India has been actively interacting with the five Central Asian countries to establish stronger diplomatic relations through technical personnel training, loans and other assistance. In 2003 an anti-terrorism military exercise was held along with Tajikistan, on Tajik territory, and the “India-Central Asia Dialogue” was organized and held as well. India's goal is to establish a trust relationship with the Central Asian countries via those activities, and to expand that relationship into a level of energy cooperation. Nonetheless, India’s energy cooperation activities in Central Asia have yet to reach fruition with no real progress to date. 260
4.3.6.1 India’s Failure to buy into the Kashagan Oil Field
Nonetheless, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation had originally concluded an agreement in November 2012 to purchase an 8.4 per cent interest in Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oil field.
However, in July 2013 the Kazakhstani state-owned energy firm KazMunaiGas bought that stake in the Kashagan field and then sold an 8.4 per cent interest to China’s Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for US$5 billion.261
4.3.6.2 The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline
The proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline is supported implicitly by the United States, 262 and India earnestly hopes to get energy resources from Central Asia through this pipeline. To this end, India is in consultations with their long rivals, Pakistan, the transit country of this proposed pipeline, in order to meet its own growing huge
260 Hemant, S., Persis Taraporevala, Kailash K. Prasad and Rani D. Mullen, “India Central Asia Backgrounder,”
Indian Development Cooperation Research, Centre for Policy Research, Jan 6, 2014, available at:
http://idcr.cprindia.org/p/page-4.html (accessed: 20140505).
261 Tanchum, Micha’el and Shalem College, “India’s Central Asia ambitions outfoxed by China and Russia,”
East Asia Forum, Oct 12, 2013, available at:
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/10/12/indias-central-asia-ambitions-outfoxed-by-china-and-russia, (accessed:
20140505).
262 “US supports TAPI not Pak-Iran pipeline: Olson,” Pakistan Today, March 5, 2013, available at:
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/03/05/national/us-supports-tapi-not-pak-iran-pipeline-olson/, (accessed:
20140507).
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demand for energy because of the advancing economic development of India. The TAPI pipeline is meant to start from Turkmenistan's Dauletabad gas field, pass through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and finally arrive at Fazilka in India 263 (Please see Chart 4-13 below). This pipeline has not yet been put into implementation. Moreover, the areas that the TAPI pipeline are planned to pass through in Afghanistan and Pakistan are inhabited by Islamic radicals and terrorists making transportation security nearly impossible. 264
Russia has its traditional influence in Central Asia. It has a huge voice and influence among the Central Asian countries. From Russia’s perspective, the TAPI pipeline represents a US violation of their sphere of influence in Central Asia and also it can damage Russia’s Central Asian natural gas monopoly. In fact, the 2009 China - Central Asia gas pipeline has in part already destroyed Russia’s monopoly. 265 However, because of the SCO mechanism, with interaction between China and Russia, they are closely related to each other. Russia may not be satisfied with, but they did not oppose the construction of China - Central Asia gas pipeline either. Being against Russia’s interest it can be expected that they will put great effort into obstructing the construction of such a pipeline.
Moreover, China has completed construction of the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, so there’s a steady stream of gas transported from the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan into China. If the TAPI pipeline construction were completed, part of the Turkmenstan’s Dauletabad gas field’s reserve will be delivered to India, so that there will be a significant reduction in the natural gas transported to China and it will impact China's energy security.
Therefore, the Chinese government is also opposed to the construction of the TAPI pipeline, The TAPI’s construction would be bound to cause China and India to compete for the same natural gas.
263 “Turkmenistan- Afghanistan – Pakistan-India [TAPI] Pipeline,” Ministry of Mines of Afghanistan, available at: http://mom.gov.af/en/page/4717, (accessed: 20140505).
264 Bhutta, Zafar. “TAPI gas pipeline: Kabul turns to Taliban for pipeline security,” The Express Tribune, May 22, 2012, available at:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/382332/tapi-gas-pipeline-kabul-turns-to-taliban-for-pipeline-security/, (accessed:
20140505).
265 Fitzpatrick, Catherine A. “US, Russia Compete for TAPI Role but China Enjoys Advantage in Turkmenistan,”
Natural Gas Europe, Oct 31, 2013, available at:
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國立 政 治 大 學
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Chart 4-11: The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline
Dauletabad, Turkmenistan
Herat, Afghanistan
Kandahar, Afghanistan
Quetta, Pakistan
Multan, Pakistan
Fazilka, India
Connecting to India Domestic
Market
TAPI(Turkmenistan‐Afghanistan‐Pakistan‐India) Gas Pipeline
Source: Compiled by author
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-russia-tapi-role-china-turkmenistan-advantage, (accessed: 20140507).