Chart 2-11: Turkmenistan's GDP Growth Rate
2.3 Security Concerns of Central Asian Countries
The Tajik Government adopted “The National Development Strategy for 2006–2015”
whose goal is to attain sustainable economic growth, improve social services and reduce poverty. 101
Kyrgyzstan has adopted the "National strategy for sustainable development of Kyrgyz Republic for 2013-2017.” 102 This has a goal aimed at mining resources and also includes a means of dealing with natural resources and the economic potential of this mountainous country, from activities such as pastoralism, tourism and protection of biological diversity.
Using the energy potential of the mountains helps to reduce other negative impact on the environment. 103
2.3 Security Concerns of Central Asian Countries
Critical security issues in the Central Asia region include political unrest in Kyrgyzstan (uprising in April 2010), transnational crimes (drug smuggling across borders), conflicts over resources among Central Asian states (such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan being reluctant to supply energy to neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), water disputes on the Fergana border (due to the upstream countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, insisting on building large hydro power stations, while the downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are opposed), factions within Central Asian nations (crackdowns on opposition parties in order to maintain monopolies of political power) and the complex and interwoven relations between major world powers (such as the competition among Russia, the U.S., China and other great powers).
-creates-regional-tension.html, (accessed: 20131128).
101 “National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the Period To 2015 (Draft),” State
Committee on Investments and State Property Management of the Republic of Tajikistan, Aug 2006, available at:
http://amcu.gki.tj/eng/images/stories/nds_en.pdf, (accessed: 20131201).
102 “Kyrgyzstan approves National Strategy for Sustainable Development for 2013-2017,” Amu Darya Basin Network, available at:
http://amudaryabasin.net/news/kyrgyzstan-approves-national-strategy-sustainable-development-2013-2017, (accessed: 20140203).
103 “The national goal of sustainable development,” KyrgyzTour, Feb 11, 2012, available at:
http://kyrgyztour.com/?p=145, (accessed: 20140120).
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The independence of Central Asian countries has been rather brief. In addition, their economic development has been subject to constraints placed upon them by their external environment and this has been further bogged down by several periods of economic recession.
The region’s security situation has always been volatile. There was first in the early 1990s a drop in production and hyperinflation brought about by the disruption of conventional economic links and financial difficulties.
Subsequently in 1998, the Central Asian countries were dealt a double blow by the Asian and Russian financial crises. The Color Revolutions in 2005 sent shock waves through the region as well. Lastly, in 2008, Central Asia encountered the detrimental effects of the global financial crisis and heavy security pressure imposed by the ongoing war in Afghanistan. It is due to these factors that Central Asia is unlikely to succeed in achieving social and political transformation. 104
There have been a few fundamental problems hindering the economic development of the five Central Asian countries since their independence from the Soviet Union. These can be elaborated by three points: 105
1) The economic development of Central Asian countries is impeded by their geopolitical environment. As basically landlocked countries they naturally have less access to the outside world, economic ties are hence more difficult to be established. Central Asia lacks direct access to ocean transport and must bypass and/or rely on countries such as China, Russia, and Iran to connect them to ocean transport routes.
2) After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the existing industrial foundation was shattered due to its lack of competitiveness, ultimately downgrading most Central Asian countries to raw material exporters and primary industry producers. Moreover, past economic links and markets were associated with, or oriented towards, prior “domestic” partners within
104 Sun, Zhuangzhi. “The social and political transformations among Central Asian countries: principles, characteristics and difficulties,” Russian Central Asian & East European Studies, 2011, available at:
http://euroasia.cass.cn/news/161514.htm, (accessed: 20110227).
105 王承宗，「中亞經濟發展與商機」，問題與研究 6 (台北: 2003): 118。[Wang, Chengtzung. Zhongya Jingjifazhan Yu Shangji (Central Asia's Economic Development and Business Opportunities) Wenti Yu Yanjiu (Issues & Studies) 6 (Taipei: 2003): 118.]
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the former Soviet Union. Despite their intention to taper reliance on these Soviet era
“domestic” regions or neighboring newly independent states, Central Asian countries found this goal unattainable in the short run.
3) In the past, the economy and finances of Central Asian countries depended much on reimbursement and provision from the Soviet Union’s central government. Suddenly these countries were cast adrift on their own. As their finances were mired in adversity, Central Asian countries were in need of external support and assistance, particularly in establishing new market economies and propelling necessary reforms.
2.3.1 Critical Security Issues in the Central Asia region 106
2.3.1.1 Political Unrest in Kyrgyzstan
Since the violent uprising in April 2010, and an insurgency in the south in June 2010, the nation has been nearly paralyzed and the central government’s authority completely disintegrated.
2.3.1.2 Transnational Crimes
Transnational drug smuggling has been a dominant threat that has haunted the Central Asian countries for more than a decade. These activities are also closely related to circumstances in Afghanistan. In order to ensure the unobstructed nature of “drug trafficking corridors,”
international criminal organizations disrupted Central Asia’s border security.
2.3.1.3 Conflicts over Resources among Central Asian States
Although natural resources in Central Asia are abundant, their distribution is as yet uneven.
106 孫壯志，「中亞地區安全的熱點問題與走勢分析」，俄羅斯中亞東歐研究 2 (北京: 2011)。[Sun, Zhuangzhi.
Zhongyadiqu Anquan De Redian Wenti Yu Zoushifenxi (An analysis of hotspots and developments in Central-Asian security) Eluosi Zhongya Dongou Yanjiu (Russian Central Asian & East European Studies) 1 (Beijing: 2011)
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This not only contributes to huge gaps between each of the Central Asian country’s economic development potential, but also it has planted the seeds for clashes and conflicts between the newly-independent republics. In recent years, issues of “energy security” became more and more prominent. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as hydrocarbon exporters, are reluctant to supply energy to neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as they lack sufficient foreign exchange reserves to afford the high cost of imported hydrocarbons. This further leads to frequent energy crises in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, thus affecting relations between
nations in Central Asia. Consequently the level of tensions has escalated as a result.
2.3.1.4 Water Disputes on the Fergana Border
The Fergana region is situated at the border of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with a dense multiethnic population of over 10 million people. The existence of ethnic enclaves and scarcity of irrigation water sources explain why the three countries till now have failed to complete border demarcation. The upstream countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, insist on building large hydro power stations with the aim to intercept more water for economic gain.
The downstream nations of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are nonetheless more powerful
nations in comparison, also have taken a strong stand on the matter. As upstream water is vital to Uzbekistan's agricultural industry, Uzbekistan has continually issued warnings to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, even threatening to adopt measures such as economic sanctions. Small-scale violent clashes have erupted at the border. For example, President Almazbek Atambayev of Kyrgyzstan announced in December of 2013 that a US$1 billion Kyrgyz-Russian arms deal was made to prevent any ”foreign army attack.” If an agreement cannot be reached between upstream and downstream countries, large-scale clashes may arise. The complexities of unresolved disputes remain at issue. 107
2.3.1.5 Factions within Central Asian Nations
In order to maintain monopolies on political and economic power or prevent reform, some
107 Satke, Ryskeldi. “Kyrgyz president fears war in the south,” Asia Times Online, December 20, 2013, available at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-201213.html, (accessed: 20140208).
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Central Asian nations crack down on opposition parties labeling them as terrorists or factors of instability towards their respective nations. Events in Uzbekistan are a prime example of this. Uzbekistan’s president Islam Karimov labels his political opponents as “Islamic Fundamentalist terrorists.” He labels unaffiliated opponents, as “Hizb ut-Tahrir” (an actual political organization founded in 1953 as a Sunni Muslim organization in Jerusalem, known as HT, Party of Liberation) which aims to restore Islamic rule in Muslim lands. HT supports democracy and is opposed to religious wars, ethnic favoritism and discrimination against women. Karimov announced that it was HT members who had a connection to a 30th of July, 2004 Tashkent bombing though there is a lack of evidence. More than 85 alleged HT
members were subsequently arrested. 108
2.3.1.6 The complex and interwoven relations between major world powers
The Central Asia region is adjacent to China, Russia, and Iran, serving as an important crossroads for traffic from all directions. Its abundance of oil and gas reserves and crucial strategic position endow the region with extraordinary economic and security values in the eyes of major world powers. The power struggle between Russia and the U.S. over this region has been ongoing for over a decade, vying with each other on energy and disposition of armed forces, which can be exemplified by first the fight over “westbound” and “northbound”
pipeline transit routes and then the dispute over military base construction in Kyrgyzstan. As the deadline for troop withdrawal from Afghanistan approaches and Iran’s problems with Israel and the West continues, the geopolitical and strategic position of Central Asia is once again illuminated. China’s investments in Central Asia’s economy are ever-expanding; the European Union has given more substance to new strategies concerning Central Asia; Japan clings onto a “Central Asia plus Japan” meeting that opens up dialog among foreign ministers of the group; Turkey has advanced by hosting the 2010 Conference on Interaction and
Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA); and India is proactively seeking opportunities for northward entry. Each of these major world powers has its own stakes in Central Asia, yielding intertwined relationships and leaving little room for negotiations. Thus, the
108 Schwartz, Stephen. “Hizb ut-Tahrir in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan,” Center for Islamic Pluralism, August 11, 2004, available at: http://www.islamicpluralism.org/1268/hizb-ut-tahrir-in-uzbekistan-and-kazakhstan, (accessed:
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occurrences of collision of interests can be expected to increase.
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