中國在中亞的能源外交戰略及政策行為 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學程 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Science National Chengchi University. 碩士論文. Master’s 治 Thesis. 立. 政. 大. ‧ 國. 學. 中國在中亞的能源外交戰略及政策行為. n. al. y. er. io. sit. Nat. Diplomacy in Central Asia. ‧. The Strategy & Policy Behavior of China’s Energy. Ch. i n U. v. e n g cShih-Yuan hi Student: Chen, Advisor: Dr. Teng, Chung-Chian. 中華民國一〇三年六月 June 2014.

(2) 中國在中亞的能源外交戰略及政策行為 The Strategy & Policy Behavior of China’s Energy Diplomacy in Central Asia. Student: Chen, Shih-Yuan. 研究生：陳思源. Advisor: Dr. Teng, Chung-Chian. 指導教授：鄧中堅. 立. 政治大國立政治大學. ‧ 國. 學. 亞太研究英語碩士學程. Nat. al. er. io. A Thesis. sit. y. ‧. 碩士論文. n. v i n Submitted to International C hMaster’s ProgramUin Asia-Pacific Studies engchi National Chengchi University In partial fulfillment of the Requirement For the degree of Master in China Studies. 中華民國一〇三年六月 June 2014.

(3) Acknowledgements. Thesis writing requires certain academic standards. Any author must consider the overall structure and format in order not to obfuscate the thoughts conveyed in the narrative of that thesis. It’s like a long journey requires patience and takes considerable time. To my supervisor, Professor Teng, Chung-chian, whose invaluable comments and support which made the completion of this thesis possible, I would like. 政治大. to express my deepest gratitude. Also I am grateful for the precious guidance and. 立. advice from Professor Fu Jen-kun and Professor Wei Bai-ku. In addition, I’d like to. ‧ 國. 學. take this opportunity to give a special thanks to my father Chen Bi-jong as without his. ‧. encouragement, I would not have aspired, nor had the patience, to complete this thesis. Finally, I would like to thank my IMCS classmates and all of my friends who not only. y. Nat. io. sit. have shared their fine experiences but also offered me their support and concern. n. al. er. during the thesis writing period. Thanks to all such warm supports as the aforementioned, it has led to successful fruition.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(4) i. ABSTRACT. As China shifted to being a net energy importer in 1993, petroleum and natural gas became an issue of the greatest importance to China in order to prevent any energy shortage. Sea-borne energy imports are open to threats from piracy or conflicts with great powers, especially in the Straits of Hormuz, and the Straits of Malacca. The Central Asian nations possess abundant energy resources, especially Kazakhstan and. 政治大. Turkmenistan, and are geographically much closer to China, which easily allows these. 立. sources to supply energy to China via overland routes, and offer far reduced risks to. ‧ 國. 學. delivery of imported petroleum and gas. In this study, China’s energy security and how China can avoid energy shortage crises are the focus while discussing the role. ‧. Central Asia plays in China’s oil strategies within its SCO’s framework. Also an. Nat. n. al. Ch. engchi. er. io. powerful oil-consuming countries is offered.. sit. y. analysis of political and economic features of the competition within the region by. i n U. v. Key Words: Central Asia, New Great Game, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Collective Security Treaty Organization.

(5) ii. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 China started to diversify energy route to prevent energy shortage since 1993 ....... 1 1.1.2 The 2014 Ukrainian Crisis........................................................................................ 5 1.1.3 China’s “Go West” Policy ........................................................................................ 8 1.2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 9. 政治大. 1.2.1 Thesis Questions ....................................................................................................... 9. 立. 1.3 Defining Concepts .......................................................................................................... 10. ‧ 國. 學. 1.3.1 The Definition of “Energy” .................................................................................... 10 1.3.2 The Definition of “Central Asia”............................................................................ 11. ‧. 1.3.3 The Definitions of “Strategy” and “Energy Strategy” ............................................ 11. sit. y. Nat. 1.3.4 The Definitions of “Energy Diplomacy” and “Policy Behavior” ........................... 12. io. er. 1.4 Research Literature Review ............................................................................................ 12 1.4.1 Geopolitics.............................................................................................................. 12. al. n. v i n 1.4.2 The Perspective of NewC Realism 18 U h e ............................................................................ i h ngc 1.4.3 Diagram of Research Framework ........................................................................... 23. 1.5 Research Limitations ...................................................................................................... 25 2. Overview of the Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation and Strategies of Development Planned for Central Asia ................................................................................... 26 2.1 Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation in Central Asian Countries ................... 26 2.1.2 Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation in Kazakhstan .............................. 30 2.1.3 Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation in Turkmenistan........................... 45 2.1.4 Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation in Other Central Asian Countries 58 2.2 Development Strategies of Central Asian Countries ...................................................... 66.

(6) iii. 2.2.1 The Development Strategy of Kazakhstan ............................................................. 66 2.2.2 The Development Strategy of Turkmenistan.......................................................... 75 2.2.3 The Energy Strategies of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ......................... 81 2.3 Security Concerns of Central Asian Countries ............................................................... 83 2.3.1 Critical Security Issues in the Central Asia region ................................................. 85 3. The Strategy of China’s Energy Diplomacy in Central Asia .............................................. 89 3.1 Current Circumstances of China's Energy Usage, Supply and Demand and the Strategic Security of China ................................................................................................................. 89. 治政 3.1.1 Current Circumstances of China's Utilization of Energy 大 Resources ...................... 89 立 3.1.2 The Challenge to the Energy Security of China ..................................................... 93 ‧ 國. 學. 3.2 Energy Interests of China in Central Asia ...................................................................... 97 3.2.1 China Seeks to Exploit Multiple Energy Routes due to Increasing Energy Demands. ‧. ......................................................................................................................................... 97. sit. y. Nat. 3.2.2 The Benefits for China to exploit energy in Central Asian Countries .................. 100. al. er. io. 3.3 Energy Strategy and Policy Behavior of China in Central Asia ................................... 105. v i n C h Construction andUCooperation with China .......... 113 3.4 Central Asia’s Oil and Gas Pipeline engchi n. 3.3.1 China’s Energy Strategy in Central Asia .............................................................. 105. 3.4.1 Oil Pipeline Construction ..................................................................................... 113 3.4.2 Natural Gas Pipeline Construction ....................................................................... 116 4. The Challenges to China's Energy Cooperation with Central Asia ................................... 124 4.1 Prior Russian Domination of Central Asia's Economic Infrastructure and Orientation and Recent Russian Measures to Preserve or Regain that Dominance .................................... 124 4.2 Diplomatic Initiatives and Interaction between the United States, China, Russia and Other Countries in regard to Central Asia ................................................................................... 125 4.2.1 China’s Diplomatic Policy Initiatives in Central Asia ......................................... 125 4.2.2 China's Main Challenges in the “New Great Game” in Central Asia ................. 127.

(7) iv. 4.2.3 American Diplomatic and Policy Initiatives in regard to Central Asia ................ 129 4.2.4 Russia’s Foreign Policy and Diplomatic Initiatives in Central Asia .................... 144 4.3 Competition between United States, China, Russia and other countries in Central Asia over pipelines ............................................................................................................................. 155 4.3.1 The Start of the New Great Game in Central Asia ............................................... 155 4.3.2 Competition for Central Asian Energy: the US’s Strategies ................................ 157 4.3.3 Competition for Central Asian Energy: Russia’s Strategies................................. 163 4.3.4 Competition for Central Asian energy: the EU’s Strategies ................................. 170. 治政 4.3.5 Competition for Central Asian energy: Japan’s Strategies 大 ................................... 173 立 4.3.6 Competition for Central Asian energy: India’s Strategies .................................... 178 ‧ 國. 學. 4.3.7 Other Initiatives: the Russian-Korea Gas Pipeline ............................................... 182 4.4 International Energy Companies Involvement in Central Asia .................................... 185. ‧. 4.4.1 International Energy Companies Involvement in Kazakhstan ............................. 185. y. Nat. sit. 4.4.2 International Energy Companies Involvement in Turkmenistan .......................... 196. al. er. io. 4.4.3 Export of Energy from Central Asia..................................................................... 202. n. v i n Ch In Central Asia....................................................................................................................... 204 engchi U 5. The Influence of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to China’s Diplomacy Policy. 5.1 China and the SCO: Its Structure and Development..................................................... 204 5.1.1 The Founding of the SCO..................................................................................... 204 5.1.2 Main Features and Basic Principles of the SCO ................................................. 206 5.1.3 Iran's admission to the SCO ............................................................................... 213 5.2 The Influence of the SCO on China’s Diplomacy Policy in Central Asia .................... 217 5.2.1 The Guidance of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping..................................... 217 5.2.2 The New Security Concept ................................................................................... 217 5.2.3 The SCO as a Means of Implementation of the New Security Concept............... 219.

(8) v. 5.2.4 The Discrepancies in regard to the Energy Cooperation between China and Russia within the SCO framework .......................................................................................... 220 5.3 Achievement of Cooperation between China and the SCO .......................................... 221 5.3.1 Ensuring Energy Exports ...................................................................................... 221 5.3.2 Maintenance of Regional Security and Measures to deal with Terrorism, Extremism and Separatism ............................................................................................ 222 5.3.3 Developing the Economy of China’s Western Regions ....................................... 225 6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 228. 政治大. 6.1 The Importance of Central Asia to ensuring China’s Energy Security through. 立. Diversification of Routes of Energy Importation .............................................................. 228. ‧ 國. 學. 6.1.1 The Establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) ................ 229 6.2 Research Findings ......................................................................................................... 230. ‧. 6.2.1 Authoritarian Nature of Central Asian States Helps to Strengthen Relations with. y. Nat. China ............................................................................................................................. 230. er. io. The SCO plays a Key Role to China’s Strategy in Central Asia ..................... 231. al. n. 6.2.3. sit. 6.2.2 China uses the SCO to interact with Great Powers in the Region ........................ 231. Ch. i n U. v. 6.3 Policy Ramifications based upon the Findings of this Study ........................................ 233. engchi. 6.3.1 China could develop a deep and lasting partnership with Russia to develop greater energy cooperation in the Central Asia region under SCO’s framework ...................... 233 6.3.2 China could work to further integrate economically and politically with the Nations of the Central Asian region............................................................................................ 234 6.4 Future Prospects for Research ...................................................................................... 234 6.4.1 Research on the Impact on Geopolitical Circumstances in Eurasia and Central Asia arising from the still developing Ukraine Crisis ............................................................ 235 6.4.2 A Further Analysis of China’s Future Energy Supplies ....................................... 236 6.5 Final Comments ............................................................................................................ 238.

(9) vi. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 239 Chinese Sources .................................................................................................................. 239 English Sources................................................................................................................... 242 Internet Sources .................................................................................................................. 244. . 立. . . y. sit er. al. n. . io. . Nat. . ‧. . ‧ 國. . 學. . 政治大. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(10) vii. LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Comparison of Realism and Neo-realism............................................................ 22 Table 2-1: The Proven Reserves of Crude Oil in Barrels (Billion Barrels), at end of 2012 . 28 Table 2-2: The Stock of Proven Reserves of Natural Gas in Central Asia (Trillion Cubic. 政治大. Meters) .............................................................................................................................….29. 立. Table 2-3: Statistics for Oil & Natural gas Production and Consumption in Kazakhstan .... 41. ‧ 國. 學. Table 2-4: Statistics for Oil Exports from Kazakhstan ......................................................... 44 Table 2-5: Value of Oil Exports from Kazakhstan ............................................................... 44. ‧. Table 2-6: Statistics for Oil & Gas Production and Consumption in Turkmenistan............. 48. sit. y. Nat. Table 2-7: Statistics for Oil & Gas Production and Consumption in Uzbekistan ................. 60. al. er. io. Table 2-8: Kazakhstan's GDP Growth Rate.......................................................................... 68. v i n C hgas Production andUConsumption in China ............. 91 Table 3-1: Statistics for Oil & Natural engchi n. Table 2-9: Turkmenistan's GDP Growth Rate ...................................................................... 79. Table 3-2: Statistics for Oil Imported, Consumption and Dependency Rate in China ......... 91 Table 3-3: China Total Petroleum Consumption .................................................................. 96 Table 4-1: 2012 Propotions of Production of Main Oil Companies in Kazakhstan ........... 192 Table 5-1: Trade Volume between China and the five Central Asian Countries ................ 226 Table 6-1: A Brief Analysis of China’s Oil Supplies ......................................................... 237.

(11) viii. LIST OF CHARTS. Chart 1-1: World Oil Transit Chokepoints ............................................................................. 2 Chart1-2: China's Oil Production and Consumption Diagram(1999-2013) ...................……..4 Chart 1-3: New Geopolitical Theory .................................................................................... 16 Chart 1-4: Diagram of Research Framework ........................................................................ 24. 政治大 Chart 2-2: Caspian Pipeline Consortium(West Bound) ........................................................ 39 立. Chart 2-1: Samara-Atyrau Oil Pipeline (North Bound) ........................................................ 38. Chart 2-3: China-Kazakhstan Oil Pipeline(East Bound) ...................................................... 40. ‧ 國. 學. Chart 2-4: Kazakhstan’s oil production and consumption, 2004-2014................................. 42. ‧. Chart 2-5: Kazakhstan’s Liquid Fuels Exports by Destination, 2012 ................................... 43 Chart 2-6: Value of oil exports from Kazakhstan ................................................................. 45. y. Nat. sit. Chart 2-7: Central Asia-Center(CAC) Natural Gas Pipeline ................................................ 56. n. al. er. io. Chart 2-8: China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline ............................................................ 57. i n U. v. Chart 2-9: Uzbekistan’s Total Oil Production and Consumption 1992-2010 ..................... 61. Ch. engchi. Chart 2-10: Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth Rate. ...................................................................... 69 Chart 2-11: Turkmenistan's GDP Growth Rate .................................................................. 80 Chart 3-1: China Total Crude Imports .................................................................................. 92 Chart 3-2: Oil Prices vs. Natural Gas Prices 1994 to 2011 ................................................... 94 Chart 3-3: The China-Kazakhstan Oil Pipeline .................................................................. 115 Chart 3-4: The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline Route ..................................................... 118 Chart 3-5: The West-East Gas Pipeline Project .................................................................. 120 Chart 3-6: The Route of Central Asia Natural Gas to Hong Kong ..................................... 122 Chart 4-1: Chronology of Color Revolutions ..................................................................... 141.

(12) ix. Chart 4-2: Post-Soviet Eurasian Economic integration processes by Chronology ............. 150 Chart 4-3: Chronology of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ............... 152 Chart 4-4: Major Caspian Oil and Natural Gas Export Routes ........................................... 156 Chart 4-5: The BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) Oil Pipeline ................................................... 161 Chart 4-6: The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline ....................................................................... 162 Chart 4-7: The CPC Oil Pipeline (Caspian pipeline consortium) ....................................... 165 Chart 4-8: The Central Asia-Center gas pipeline ................................................................ 166. 政治大 Chart 4-10: The Turkmenistan-China-Japan Gas Pipeline Project ..................................... 177 立. Chart 4-9: The South Stream and Nabucco Gas Pipelines.................................................. 167. Chart 4-11: The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline .................... 181. ‧ 國. 學. Chart 4-12: The Russian-Korea Gas Pipeline ..................................................................... 184. ‧. Chart 4-13: Shareholdings of Tengiz Oil Field ................................................................... 188 Chart 4-14: Shareholdings of Karachaganak Oil Field ....................................................... 189. y. Nat. io. sit. Chart 4-15: Shareholdings of Kashagan Oil Field .............................................................. 191. n. al. er. Chart 4-16: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Shareholders .................................. 194. i n U. v. Chart 4-17: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Consortium Shareholders ......................... 195. Ch. engchi. Chart 4-18: The Khazar Project .......................................................................................... 198 Chart 4-19: The Cheleken Offshore Project Shareholders.................................................. 200 Chart 4-20: Offshore Blocks 11-12 Shareholders ............................................................... 202 Chart 5-1: A Chronology of Significant SCO Summits: Presidential Summits ................. 215 Chart 5-2: A Chronology of Significant SCO Summits: Prime Ministerial Meetings........ 216 Chart 5-3: A Chronology of the SCO’s Joint Military Anti-terrorism Exercises ................ 224 Chart 5-4: Trade Volume between China and the five Central Asian countries ................. 227 Chart 6-1: China’s Oil Import Sources in 2012 .................................................................. 238.

(13) 1. 1. Introduction. 1.1 Motivation As China shifted to being a net energy importer in 1993, petroleum and natural gas became an issue of the greatest importance to China in order to prevent an energy shortage which almost certainly would have a very significant negative impact on China’s economic development and national security. Sea-borne energy imports are open to threats from piracy or conflicts. 政治大 Malacca. The Central Asian nations, geographically much closer to China, which can supply 立 energy via overland routes, not only offer far reduced risks to delivery of imported petroleum with great powers, especially in the Suez Canal, the Straits of Hormuz, and the Straits of. 學. ‧ 國. and gas products but other potential benefits to China as well.. 1993. ‧. 1.1.1 China started to diversify energy route to prevent energy shortage since. sit. y. Nat. io. er. China's economy has experienced tremendous expansion over the past decades, beginning with the economic reforms of the late 1970's, resulting in a dramatic increase in the demand. n. al. for energy by which to fuel that growth.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Though China, in its current geographical delineations, is well endowed with natural resources to such a degree that prior to 1993, when last being an exporter of energy, it used to be self-sufficient in regard to its use of energy resources for economic development. However, after 1993, China’s role shifted from that of supplier to one as an ever growing consumer and importer of energy resources. As such China now faces the necessity of securing those energy resources from current and future markets simply to maintain its current levels of economic growth, and this search for stable supplies of energy resources has become essential not only for China’s economic development but also for its national security. When China assumed the role of a net energy importer in 1993, petroleum and natural.

(14) 2. gas became an issue of the greatest importance to China in order to prevent an energy shortage which might have a huge impact on China’s economic development and national security. By far the majority of these two resources that are imported to China come from the Middle East and North Africa. However, this gives rise to concerns regarding the security -as well as additional costs -- of such imports due to ongoing and potential future conflicts that impinge upon the successful delivery of such imports. Hot spots and disruptions to export and even production exist currently in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, the eastern oil-producing provinces of Saudi Arabia and by extension the entire littoral of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, piracy concerns are particularly an issue in the Red and Arabian Seas and. 治政大 at the Suez Canal, the Straits of perspective Chinese oil imports face potential throttle points 立 Hormuz, and the Straits of Malacca, even prior to reaching potential zones of conflict in the Northern Indian Ocean as the range of Somali pirates extends further. From a strategic. ‧ 國. 學. Taiwan Strait and East China Sea. The Persian Gulf, and especially the Strait of Hormuz, is quite narrow so it can easily be blocked (Please see Chart 1-1 below).. ‧. Chart 1-1: World Oil Transit Chokepoints. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=wotc&trk=p3..

(15) 3. It is therefore in the security interests of China to alter its sole dependence on sea-borne energy imports particularly those which originate or must traverse these areas of current and possible conflict. Particularly, should a conflict arise, either regionally in the Middle East or one that might involve China directly, China's energy supply chain could be, for the most part, cut off and China’s economy would suffer enormous loss. Thus, finding stable sources of energy for import is of crucial importance to China.. The Central Asian nations and overland imports through Eurasia, hence offer a far better strategic scenario for China’s energy security as well as being geographically much closer. 政治大 petroleum and gas delivery but other potential benefits to China as well. Recent events have 立. than the Middle East or sources. Such Central Asian sources not only offer far reduced risks to highlighted both the potential risks to China’s imports and offered newly gained advantages. ‧ 國. 學. for China not only through direct imports of energy from Russia but from closer cooperation with Russia and the nations of Central Asia, thus significantly changing the balance of. ‧. interests in the region in China’s favor. These events will be briefly summarized hereafter.. y. Nat. sit. As can be seen from the data depicted hereon, China’s oil production is not increasing;. al. er. io. however its consumption is increasing sharply. The net difference between China’s oil. v. n. consumption and production has increased dramatically since 1993 (Please see the Chart 1-2 below).. Ch. engchi. i n U.

(16) 4. Chart 1-2: China’s Oil Production and Consumption Diagram (1990-2013). 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 y. Nat. io. n. al. er. (August, 2012). sit. Source: U.S Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics and Short-Term Energy Outlook. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(17) 5. 1.1.2 The 2014 Ukrainian Crisis 1.1.2.1 The 2014 Ukrainian Revolution In the Ukraine, burdened by various problems such as bureaucratic corruption, economic recession, ineffective governance and other factors, the people who were dissatisfied with the situation started a protest movement culminating in the overthrow of the elected government in February 2014. In the capital of Kiev, a series of violent clashes caused casualties and led the then President Viktor Yanukovych to step down and to flee abroad. Arseniy Yatsenyuk. 政治大 after presidential elections that were held on May 25 , 2014. However, given the deteriorating 立 security situation in the country and lack of full participation, it is uncertain if the validity of currently leads Ukraine's interim government, which is slated to rule until a transfer of power. 學. ‧ 國. th. such elections can be widely accepted. The new government is recognized by the United States and the European Union and other Western countries,. 1. but Russia refuses to. ‧. recognize the legitimacy of the provisional government, and asserts that that government is a proxy of the United States and other Western countries who were behind the planning of the. y. Nat. n. al. 2. er. io. Ukraine’s current government.. sit. coup, and particularly objects to the participation of Fascist far-right, ultranationalist parties in. Ch. i n U. 1.1.2.2 The Crimea holds a Referendum to rejoin Russia. engchi. v. Beginning on February 26th, as the security situation began to deteriorate and in response to measures against ethnic Russians by the Kiev government, local self-defense units formed and, along with Russian troops already stationed in the peninsula, assumed control of security functions and supported the authorities of the then semi-autonomous Republic of Crimea of Ukraine taking control of Crimea's parliament building. (This gave the Russian majority the opportunity to return to Russia, a simmering issue since the dissolution of the USSR, only previously avoided due to diplomatic accords forming the CIS and frozen by the vow to 1. “Yatsenyuk visits Washington: Ukraine will 'never surrender,” Deutsche Welle, Mar 12, 2014, available at: http://www.dw.de/yatsenyuk-visits-washington-ukraine-will-never-surrender/a-17493270, (accessed: 20140510). 2 “Russian official accuses US of fueling Ukraine crisis,” Press TV, Feb 6, 2014, available at: http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/02/06/349524/us-accused-of-funding-ukraine-rioters, (accessed: 20140321)..

(18) 6. territorial integrity by signatory countries of the 1994 Alma-Ata Accords.) The Crimean parliament voted to join the Russian Federation and to hold a popular referendum to poll citizens’ sentiment. The measure to rejoin Russia was approved with an overwhelming 97% of the vote in March 2014.. 3. Crimea's parliament declared the region's independence from the. Ukraine and formally applied to join Russia.. 4. This event caused strong opposition to be. voiced from powers such as the United States and the European Union. Many Western governments believe that the referendum violated the Ukrainian constitution and international law, so that they do not recognize the legitimacy of the Crimean referendum, claiming that Russia should not intervene in the internal affairs of the Ukraine. The situation is ongoing. 政治大. with sanctions now placed on Russia and this has consequences for its energy cooperation with the West.. 5. 立. ‧ 國. 學. Moreover the Ukraine has defaulted on payments to its natural gas suppliers in Russia, currently owing US $3.5 billion. And sitting astride one of the main pathways for delivery of Russia’s marketing disposition of its energy resources.. ‧. Russian natural gas and oil to the rest of Europe this aspect of the crisis has an impact upon 6. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. 1.1.2.3 China may enhance mutual Trust and Cooperation with Russia in Central Asia. Ch. i n U. v. Crimea’s accession to Russia is an event that deepens antagonisms between some Western. engchi. governments and Russia, particularly in regard to energy security as the EU may even see fit to significantly reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. If that proves to be the case, Russia’s gas export earnings from Europe may be greatly reduced and therefore they must 3. “RPT-INSIGHT-How the separatists delivered Crimea to Moscow,” Reuters News Service, Mar 13, 2014, available at: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/ukraine-crisis-russia-aksyonov-idINL6N0M93AH20140313, (accessed: 20140518). 4 “Crimea Applies to Join Russia,” VOA, March 17, 2014, available at: http://www.voanews.com/content/voting-under-way-in-crimea-referendum-to-join-russia/1872380.html, (accessed: 20140503). 5 “U.S., EU to work together on tougher Russia sanctions,” Reuters News Service, Mar 26, 2014, available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2P0VB20140326, (accessed: 20140503). 6 “Russia Says Ukraine Must Pay In Advance For Gas As Kiev's Natural Gas Bill Stands At $3.51B,” International Business Times, May 9, 2014, available at: http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-says-ukraine-must-pay-advance-gas-kievs-natural-gas-bill-stands-351b-1582219, (accessed: 20140510)..

(19) 7. look for an alternative potential market. Previously deadlocked negotiations between Russia and China on the issue of natural gas from Siberia had been ongoing for over 20 years and the two nations could not reach a consensus on the price of the natural gas. Facing a heightened risk from European countries possible reduction of their reliance on Russia for energy has increased the importance of exporting its energy products to China instead. In response to the act of China’s goodwill (their passive support for Russia in regard to the events of the 2014 Crimean crisis) Russia has reacted by immediately expressing willingness to reduce the price of natural gas in the near future, and to sign a crucial trade agreement with China in this regard.. 7. 治政大 on Russia through sanctions Moreover, while Western countries keep applying pressure 立 and other measures, Russia, from a geopolitical point of view, needs to seek strong allied ‧ 國. 學. support for its position in Eurasia. Though China naturally has been favoring a policy of non-interference in affairs of sovereignty, in order to avoid giving any precedent for. ‧. minorities’ (such as Tibet or Xinjiang) independence from its territory for any reason, it has implicitly supported Russia in this crisis. In response to the events, China hopes to maintain. Nat. sit. y. good relations with Russia and even looks forward to future deepening of mutual trust and. er. io. cooperation between the two nations. China has been reluctant to weigh in on the question of the Crimean referendum but says that the countries should resolve the dispute through. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. international negotiation mechanisms, and believes that Russia has the ability to successfully. engchi. deal with the issues. Purportedly, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a call to Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing his concern and respect.. 8. 1.1.2.4 Results and possible implications of the CICA in May of 2014 On May 21st, 2014 Russia and China signed the aforementioned agreement along with numerous other agreements greatly expanding their trade and cooperation. 7. 9. In addition,. Lelyveld, Michael. “Crimea crisis may cut China gas price,” Asia Times Online, Apr 8, 2014, available at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-080414.html, (accessed: 20140523). 8 “Xi, Putin discuss China-Russia ties, Ukraine crisis on phone,” Xinhua News Agency, Mar 5, 2014, available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/05/c_133160618.htm, (accessed: 20140523). 9 “Russia and China seal historic $400bn gas deal,” RT (Russia Today), May 22, 2014, available at: http://rt.com/business/160068-china-russia-gas-deal, (accessed: 20140526)..

(20) 8. China also signed further trade and cooperative agreements with Kazakhistan, and indirectly proposed the creation of a new security structure to participants of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Shanghai, China on May 20th. From such agreements and discussions among Eurasian leaders we can anticipate a new level of cooperation that may even come to extend to security issues or possibly a fully mature Eurasian alliance at some point in the future. Such recent events must be taken into account tempering the findings of this research made prior to these momentous events.. 10. 1.1.3 China’s “Go West” Policy. 政治大 According to the review, “Marching Westwards: The Rebalancing of China’s Geostrategy” in 立 the Global Times, written by Dr. Wang, Jisi, Dean of the School of International Studies,. ‧ 國. 學. Peking University, if China wants to go west, it should first rebalance its internal economy, and help to develop its neighboring western countries. As a first step, China should develop. ‧. its western regions and sell goods to the Central Asian countries nearby. Xinjiang Province is adjacent those Central Asia nations, so its goods can be sold to Central or even to Turkey or to. y. Nat. sit. the Mediterranean region, for example. China can sell merchandise to its customers in Europe,. er. io. and even to the global market, by establishing a New Silk Road. However, through the opening of cultural and economic links with the adjacent Central Asian states there is so risk. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. that Xinjiang, which is culturally, ethnically and religiously similar to those states, can. engchi. become even further alienated to Chinese rule. It is of high importance for China to maintain stability in its western regions and prevent any threats to its territorial integrity from spreading into its own territory.. 10. 11. “Nazarbayev Visits China as Countries Sign Investment Deals and Bolster Political Ties,” The Astana Times, May 20, 2014, available at: http://www.astanatimes.com/2014/05/nazarbayev-visits-china-countries-sign-investment-deals-bolster-political-ti es, (accessed: 20140526). 11 Wang, Jisi, ““Marching Westwards": The Rebalancing of China's. Geostrategy,” Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University, Oct 7, 2012, available at: www.ciss.pku.edu.cn/Code/AccessoriesMaker.aspx?id=2270, (accessed: 20140416)..

(21) 9. 1.2 Methodology Research methods are the means and procedures of data gathering and processing. This study engages document analysis and historical method as research methods. They can be defined as follows: -. Document Analysis A method purely based on review of research literature, through which the research is. conducted, and thus indirect in nature. Document analysis, to some extent, involves sorting, classifying, comparing, summarizing, and analyzing aggregated data from research literature.. 治政 reports from businesses, corporate organizational data, library 大 collections, dissertations, 立Analyses are then carried out regarding the statements of journals, and/or news articles.. The sources of research literature may well be reports from government agencies, research. ‧ 國. -. 學. scholars made in these documents to meet the research purpose of this study. Historical Method. ‧. This method adopts a scientific approach to examine history. A brief overview of the five Central Asian countries recent post-Soviet history helps to examine China and Central Asia's. Nat. sit. n. al. er. io. 1.2.1 Thesis Questions. y. geo-development as well as their cooperation.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 1) Given the abundance of energy resources to be found within the five Central Asian states, what are the overall energy development strategies of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan? 2) What is China's overall diplomatic strategy in regard to energy exploration and the establishment of pipelines in Central Asia? 3) What are the energy strategies among powerful nations in regard to the Central Asian Region and how are the international energy corporations exploring and exploiting the energy resources of the region?.

(22) 10. 4) What is the role of the SCO’s development in economic cooperation among member states? How does China use the SCO to develop its energy strategy and current development to cooperate with SCO member states? In this study, we will focus on the role Central Asia plays in China’s oil strategies. Also we will analyze the political and economic features that arise therefrom, and the competition by powerful oil-consuming countries in the region as well as looking at the feasibility and reality of Central Asia being an important source of oil and natural gas for China. Moreover we will explore issues of national energy security, transportation, and utilization of those oil and natural gas resources.. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. 1.3 Defining Concepts 1.3.1 The Definition of “Energy”. ‧ y. Nat. Upon the invention of steam engines in the 18th century, humanity had stepped into the “era. sit. of coal” in regard to energy consumption. By the end of the19th century, petroleum had. al. er. io. eclipsed coal entirely as recorded in 1965. During the 12th World Energy Council in 1986,. n. v i n C that may be converted which refers to all energy resources h e n g c h i U into mechanical, thermal, electric, energy was given the definition as “the capability of a system generating external activity,” chemical energy and the like.. 12. Taiwan's Bureau of Energy under the Ministry of Economic. Affairs also defines the term “energy” in its Energy Control Act. Energy includes petroleum, coal, natural gas, nuclear fuel, electricity, and other resources determined by the central competent authorities.. 13. Energy in this thesis, however, mainly refers to petroleum (oil) and. natural gas.. 12. 龔祥生，「中共能源外交戰略之日本因素研究」，國立政治大學碩士論文 (台北：2006 年)，頁 3-19。 [Kung, Shian-Son. Zhonggong Nengyuanwaijiao Zhanlue Zhi Riben Yinsu Yanjiu (Factoring in Japan in regard to CPC’s energy diplomacy strategy), unpublished thesis, National Chengchi University (Taipei: 2006), p. 3-19.] 13 Energy Administration Act, Ch.1, Art.1, amended on July 8, 2009, available at: http://law.moj.gov.tw/Eng/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=J0130002, (accessed: 20101201)..

(23) 11. 1.3.2 The Definition of “Central Asia” Russian scholars generally regard Central Asia as the area of the Hari River and the Murghab River systems, namely the four nations Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan plus Kazakhstan. For this reason, the five states of Central Asia are often called in Russian sources 'Central Asia and Kazakhstan.' The international community has generally accepted the geographical term “Central Asia” as referring to the five Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan after the heads of state of these countries proclaimed their countries to be so in a resolution made at a summit in January. 政治大 conformity with current international standards within this thesis. 立. 1993, and likewise “Central Asia” and likewise “Central Asia” refers to these five nations in 14. ‧ 國. 學. 1.3.3 The Definitions of “Strategy” and “Energy Strategy”. ‧. “Strategies” help actors wield power, and serve as the foundation for developments and the deployment of national power so that particular ultimate goals can be achieved. Due to. y. Nat. sit. limited resources, choosing what strength to develop constitutes an integral part of a nation's 15. al. n. the international community.. er. io. strategies. Only by making the correct decision can the state then maximize its influence in. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. “Energy strategies,” on the other hand, signify the related policies a nation drafts to protect national energy security, regulate domestic supply and demand for energy, balance national energy structures, and avoid energy shortages and their potential damage to the national economic well-being. Essential measures include developing energy conservation techniques, exploring for oil reservoirs, and collaborating on external investment projects. The wide array of aspects involved all belong to the arena of national policies. Were there to be energy shortages, not only would citizens' well-being and the economy be subject to direct 14. ，三文印書館：台北）發現中亞，傅仁坤2005 頁，（年 4。[Fu, Jenkun. Faxian Zhongya (Discovering Central Asia) (Taipei: Sanwen Publishing, 2005), p. 4.] 15 Goldstein, Joshua S. International Relations (New York: Longman Publishers, 2008), p71-74..

(24) 12. effects, the survival and security of the nation would also be threatened.. 16. 1.3.4 The Definitions of “Energy Diplomacy” and “Policy Behavior” Foreign policies are the policy guidelines governments rely on when envisioning international interactions. They not only proclaim the goals that governments intend to pursue, but also represent the tactics governments are prepared to use. Factors influencing the determination of foreign policies originate from a variety of analytical levels and they exert their influence simultaneously. Among others, individual decision-makers are considered a key factor. These. 政治大 and constraints from the international community. 立. policies are often under the influence of regimes and social forms, the global environment, 17. ‧ 國. 學. Energy diplomacy can be regarded as any diplomatic activities carried out between energy exporting or consuming states, transnational oil companies, or international. ‧. organizations. The purposes of such diplomacy are to maintain and strengthen the nation's security of energy import and export, pursue geopolitical economic advantages, and maximize. Nat. io. sit. y. 18. n. al. er. national interests.. C. hengchi 1.4 Research Literature Review. i n U. v. 1.4.1 Geopolitics Scholars from around the world have considered the region of Central Asia and its geopolitical circumstances from a variety of perspectives. Western scholar, Lutz Kleveman, in his book The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia expresses that countries such 16. 龔祥生，「中共能源外交戰略之日本因素研究」，國立政治大學碩士論文 (台北：2006 年)，頁 3-19。 [Kung, Shian-Son. Zhonggong Nengyuanwaijiao Zhanlue Zhi Riben Yinsu Yanjiu (Factoring in Japan in regard to CPC’s energy diplomacy strategy), unpublished thesis, NCCU (Taipei: 2006), p. 3-19.] 17 Goldstein, Joshua S. International Relations (New York: Longman Publisher, 2008), p.122-147. 18 龔祥生，「中共能源外交戰略之日本因素研究」，國立政治大學碩士論文 (台北：2006 年)，頁 3-19。 [Kung, ShianSon. Zhonggong Nengyuanwaijiao Zhanlue Zhi Riben Yinsu Yanjiu (Factoring in Japan in regard to.

(25) 13. as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Iraq, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are situated in Spykman's “heartland” have already become the focal point of the power struggle between the US, Russia, and other nations primarily due to their abundant oil and natural gas reserves. Chinese scholar, Xu Tao (許濤), asserts that Central Asian countries implement a balanced foreign policy. When the great powers involve themselves in Central Asia, these countries mediate between them so as to gain opportunities and space for self-development, and to obtain assistance and economic security. Taiwanese scholar Dr. Jen-Kun Fu also formulates a “New Geopolitical Theory” in regard to the policy behavior of these countries. This theory considers that the countries of Central Asia can obtain a balance among politics,. 政治大 Equilibrium theory, to rationalize the best responses. 立. geography, economy, and ideology (per their function in society), like John F. Nash's. ‧ 國. 學. These varying perspectives in consideration of the geopolitical circumstances in Central Asia are reviewed in greater detail in the subsections found hereafter.. Nat. sit. y. ‧. 1.4.1.1 Perspectives of Western Scholars. al. er. io. Historically, geopolitical studies can be traced back to 1897 to the German scholar, Friedrich Ratzel, who published a book, Politiche Geographic, providing a basic framework that. n. v i n viewed nations as organic entities. later, a Swedish scholar, Rudolf Kjellen first CFour U h eyears i h n c g created the term “Geopolitics” in his work Staten Som Lifsform (or 'The State as a Living Form'). This book had a strong influence on later geographic studies. During World War II and the late 19th century, works such as Halford J. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, Alfred T. Mahan’s Sea Power Theory, and Nicholas J. Spykman’s Rimland Theory were all affected by Kjellen’s work. However, due to changes in international relations, regional integration, and globalization, classical geopolitical theories could not meet the needs of fully informing scholars regarding evolving international conflicts after World War II. In 1960s, many scholars analyzed international political structure from multiple viewpoints and CPC’s energy diplomacy strategy), unpublished thesis, National Chengchi University (Taipei: 2006), p. 3-19.].

(26) 14. considerations including geographic factors to produce strategies for national security and development. In recent years, Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (1996) and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1998) have become most notable. In Brzezinski’s work, he provides his own insight on the importance of Central Asia. He dedicates an entire chapter (Chapter 5) to introduce Central Asia, discussing its importance, reviewing the strategic implications of its energy resources. Brzezinski focuses his argument mainly on the competition among ethnic groups in the region and powerful nations in Central Asia. He refers to the region as “Asia’s Balkans Peninsula.” However, Brzezinski’s theory is. 政治大. not without its flaws. He somewhat oversimplifies the strategies China had implemented to date in Central Asia in his book.. 立. 19. ‧ 國. 學. Nonetheless, we still can focus on the more important point. In Makinder’s point of view, his basic doctrine indicates that those who rule the “Heartland” or the pivot land can control. ‧. the world. While Spykman had a different claim, he claims that: “Who controls the rim land rules Eurasia; who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.”. sit. y. Nat. er. io. If we think deeply in regard to these two theories, we can see the importance of Central Asia and China. Central Asia could be said to be located in the “Heartland” whereas China. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. could easily be considered the “Rim Land.” Hence, both regions are in extensively vital. engchi. strategic locations. If Central Asian countries and China make great efforts to facilitate their cooperation, China will experience enormous economic development if one gives credence to the views of Makinder or Spykman or both given this interpretation. Another German scholar, Lutz Kleveman, used simple language in The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia to express that countries such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Iraq, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are situated in Spykman's “heartland” have already become the focal point of the power struggle between the US, Russia, and other nations primarily due to their abundant oil and natural gas reserves. This 19. Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1997), p.123-150..

(27) 15. indicates that Central Asian states are of vital importance in today’s world where demand for energy is enormous and competition among great powers is intense.. 20. In addition, this fact has been commented on, by Joseph Nye and other Western scholars, in regard to Central Asia’s role in the energy domain, and regarding the implementation of China’s foreign policies in the region. As opposed to Western studies, Russian and Central Asian scholars set out from different points of view. They emphasize the status quo and then follow along the same lines as their Western counterparts have taken in regard to the region.. 治政大 1.4.1.2 Perspectives of Taiwanese scholars 立 ‧ 國. 學. As Taiwanese scholar Dr. Jen-Kun Fu(傅仁坤) asserts, “Geopolitics emphasizes the functional behavior of a nation. That is, how a nation maneuvers its visible resources and. ‧. invisible potential, such as politics, geography, economy, and military, in compound with powerful space-time factors, to realize social prospects and visions.” Elaborating upon the. y. Nat. sit. aforementioned concept, he formulates the “New Geopolitical Theory,” which applies a. al. er. io. structural-functional theory to geopolitics. Aiming to obtain the balance among politics, geography, economy, and ideology (per their function in society), one must combine the. n. v i n structural behavioral science derived of these four actors and John F. C hfrom the interaction U i e h n ghow c best responses can be prompted in various Nash's Equilibrium theory, which rationalizes game situations.. 20. 21. Kleveman, Lutz, The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia (New York: Atlantic Books, 2003), p. 1-10. 21 陳章華，「中國與中亞能源合作之探究- 以地緣政治觀點為中心」，清雲科技大學碩士論文 (桃園：2011 年 12 月)，頁 3-4。[Chen, Changhua. Zhongguo Yu Zhongya Nengyuan Hezuo Zhi Tanjiu - Yi Diyuanzhengzhi Guandian Wei Zhongxin (The research on the energy cooperation between Central Asia and China from the.

(28) 16. Chart 1-3: New Geopolitical Theory. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. n. v i n C h stability and the U Source: Fu, Jenkun. “New Thinking: geopolitics, e n g c h i development of society,” 彥山學堂 yanshanxuetang, http://www.yscollege.com/news/html/?729.html.. geopolitics viewpoint), unpublished thesis, Ching Yun University (Taoyuan: December 2011), pp. 3-4.].

(29) 17. 1.4.1.3 Perspectives of Chinese Scholars As mentioned briefly prior, the Chinese scholar, Xu Tao(許濤), asserts in his writing ‘Central Asia’s Geopolitical Changes and Regional Security Trends’. 22. that Central Asia, facing the. upheaval and a complex regional situation, after the Cold War found themselves confined to weak positions. Feeling frustrated at the influence of external powers, they initiated a "balanced foreign policy" which has become a basic method by which the Central Asian countries interact with the rest of the world. This so-called “balanced foreign policy” means. 政治大 involving themselves in Central Asian affairs to mediate between those powers to gain 立 self-development opportunities and space to maintain stability and security in the region,. that the Central Asian countries utilize the assistance and influence of various strong nations. ‧ 國. 學. while gaining directly security and economic assistance. The crucial impact of this policy mode has significantly changed the geopolitical situation in Central Asia.. ‧. Regarding the strategies employed by the Central Asian countries who found themselves. y. Nat. sit. suddenly on center stage in the realm of international geo-politics, however, the Chinese. al. er. io. scholar, Zhang Lei (張磊), in his writing ’Foreign Strategies of the Five Central Asian. v i n C h Asian countriesUwhich share great similarity in history, regional circumstances, the five Central engchi culture , religion and ethnic identity have rationally selected four different external strategies, n. Countries and their Geopolitical Causes’ asserts that under these new international and. which he characterizes as: neutrality, alliance, balance of powers and equilibrium. Moreover, these different strategies focus on different priorities per varying diplomatic strategies, as described by country of utilization hereafter: Turkmenistan Turkmenistan borders the countries of Afghanistan and Iran, is land-locked geographically, making its exports of resources problematic. In order to avoid the ire of its 22. 許濤，「中亞地緣政治變化與地區安全趨勢」，現代國際關係 1 (北京: 2012): 29。[Xu, Tao. Zhongya Diyuanzhengzhi Bianhua Yu Diquanquan Qushi (Central Asia’s geopolitical changes and regional security trend) Xiandai Guoji Guanxi (Contemporary International Relation ) 1 (Beijing: 2012): 29.].

(30) 18. neighbors if it were to side with other major powers the Turkmen have chosen a neutral strategy. Kyrgyzstan Though, Kyrgyzstan said it would follow the example of Switzerland in rigorously pursuing a policy of neutrality, it is also willing to take a pragmatic position in its bilateral and multilateral ties and cooperative relations. Tajikistan. 治政大by neighboring powers. The continuing unrest and factional rivalries while surrounded 立 presence of Russian and other large-scale military deployment has been causing a geopolitical Tajikistan is a small, mountainous country, small size. It experienced civil war and. ‧ 國. 學. dilemma. Before “911” it had adopted the policy of strategic alliances, yet after the events of 911 it has tended to utilize a balancing strategy.. ‧. Uzbekistan. Nat. sit. y. Uzbekistan is located in the center of Central Asia, having a large population while its has played a swing role between Russia and the U.S.. n. al. Kazakhstan. Ch. engchi. er. io. military enjoys a relatively strong industrial base comparative to others in the region, so that it. i n U. v. Acting as Eurasia’s center, Kazakhstan is close to its neighbors, Russia and China, two great powers. Kazakhstan wants to play the role of a “regional great power” acting as a balance; hence it has selected a balanced strategy at multiple levels.. 1.4.2 The Perspective of New Realism The common convention of both Realism and Neo-realism is that the international realm is in a state of “anarchy” without central government, and that states act as rational actors. While Realism defines the state as the main actor, which will pursue maximum benefit for its survival when considering its national interests, on the contrary, Neo-realism analyzes from.

(31) 19. the system level (three levels) including individual, the state and the international system. Neo-realism proposes pursuit of power as just a means to safeguard national security. It also points out capabilities of each state which result in distribution of power (ordering principles) in the international system.. 1.4.2.1 The Perspective of Realism Wilson and fellow Idealists proposed after the First World War that the establishment of international organizations through international cooperation would resolve discord and. 治政大 preserve peace. The outbreak of the Second World War nevertheless proved that the ideal of 立 maintaining international order by establishing international organizations was intangible. The conflicts and eradicate wars. Therefore the League of Nations was advocated as an attempt to. ‧ 國. 學. international community continued to be, again per the view of the theory of Realism, in a state of anarchy, and nation states still went on prioritizing their national interest of ensuring. ‧. survival by securing power and dominance.. Nat. sit. y. Such a phenomenon led to the prominence of postwar realism. Some significant figures. er. io. that may be included in this school of thought are Max Weber, Hans J. Morgenthau, George F. Kennan, and Henry Kissinger. Hans J. Morgenthau is by all means the most representative of. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. this school of thought in his views in comparison with others. His Politics among Nations has. engchi. also become a masterpiece of classical realism.. 23. Morgenthau's views of classical realism stem from the premise that human nature is evil. Under such an assumption, pursuing power becomes a necessary means and objective. National interests can only be defended when power is in the possession of the state, and the best method in power politics is the balance of power. Concepts such as “evil human nature,” “power politics,” “national interests,” and “balance of power” are all core principles of realism.. 23. Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Alfred A. Knopf,. 1967), p.4-11..

(32) 20. 1.4.2.2 The Perspective of Neorealism Classical realism became the mainstream of international relations after the Second World War. The surge of “behaviorism” in the 1960s, along with its viewpoints explaining the new phenomena being experienced by the international community, challenged the fundamental principles of classical realism and evoked fierce debates in academic circle. Realists hence have adopted the structural system and other new methods from behaviorism yet these are still based on classical realism, while offering corrections and amendments to classical realism. Concepts of systemic structure, power distribution, security awareness, and national interest. 治政大 realism.” Kenneth Waltz is of realism, which is generally called “neorealism” or “structural 立 the most prominent scholar of the school of neorealism.. were then developed into a sound and integrated theoretical framework as a re-interpretation. ‧ 國. 學. In Waltz's book Man, the State, and War published in 1959, he first introduces the three. ‧. levels employed in analyzing international political phenomena, which are respectively the individual, the state, and the international system. The individual level emphasizes human. Nat. sit. y. nature and behavior and claims that wars can only be avoided by correcting the individual's. er. io. mentality or moral values. The state level places the focus on a nation’s domestic factors. A country's politics, economics, and social structure are deemed to determine the pattern and. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. nature of its participation in international politics. The level of international system in turn. engchi. screens out individual or national domestic factors, and purely analyzes international phenomena from international perspectives. Its basic hypothesis is that the international community is in an “anarchic state.” It means that there is no sovereign body that governs the interactions between autonomous nation-states. Waltz in his Theory of International Politics articulates the theory of international system, which has contributed to the foundational framework of the theory of neorealism.. 24. Neorealism, as well as classical realism, reckons that the international community is in “a state of anarchy,” also that states are the main actors in the international community. States will pursue their interests through rational actions. The pursuit of power is consequently a.

(33) 21. nation's means to ensure its survival and development. Neorealism nonetheless asserts that power is a means rather than the objective, which is done to safeguard national security. Neorealism further asserts that when explaining international political phenomena, one should observe the overall distribution of power instead of evaluating it from a few, limited isolated events that occur under the influence of that power. Two of Waltz's critical factors for consideration are: 1) The system interacts with its units (components) Neorealism proposes that the relative positions, capabilities, and power distribution of units (sovereign states) that exists in an “anarchic” international political structure are. 治政 is in fact the definition of a structure. Only when relative大 positions change will the structure 立 alter. A sovereign state's capabilities dictate its influence in international politics and its. extremely crucial. Waltz even affirms that the “ordering or positioning arrangement of units”. ‧ 國. 學. impact on the overall structure. If a state's capability and ordering arrangement undergo changes, so will the international political structure. The change of power distribution among. ‧. sovereign states changes the systemic structure; structural changes will equally lead to shifts in states' behavior.. Nat. sit. y. 2) The balance of power is an inevitable state. er. io. Waltz is convinced that the balance of power is a norm among the international community; as long as two or more states are still striving for survival in the so-called. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. “anarchic environment,” then the balance of power will occur. Regardless of the willingness. engchi. of those states to do so, they all the same sustain the balance of power. Whether a state has any motive to maintain the balance of power is irrelevant, as states are likely to take actions which do so. As a result, the systemic structure is also strongly inclined to be influenced to act towards the same direction. This balance-of-power theory addresses not how long the balance may be maintained, but rather argues that the balance of power would certainly surge in another manner if the previous balance were in any way impaired.. 24. Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics (Boston: Addison-Wesley, 1979), p.79-101. .

(34) 22. Table 1-1: Comparison of Realism and Neo-realism Comparison between Realism and Neo-Realism Realism. Neo-Realism The system level (three levels) including individual, the state and the international system:. State as main actor (unit actor. y. al. Power. Rational actor. v i n Ch State's final goal: pursuing i ofUpower is just a means to safeguard national e n g cPursuit h maximum power for survival security n. Balance of. sit. Rational actor. io. Power. Anarchy. er. Nat. State. Anarchy. ‧. Status. perspectives. 學. International. 2. The state level: focuses on state's domestic factors 治政 nature is evil hence the state such as politics, economics and social structure. 大 will pursue maximum benefit 3. International system level: purely analyzes 立 international phenomena from international level): human. ‧ 國. Analysis Level. 1. The individual level: emphasizes human nature. State decision maker's design:. Capabilities of each state results in distribution of. alliances against external threats. power (ordering principles) in the international system. Source: Zhang, Yazhong. (張亞中), International Relations, p. 48, Yangzhi Publishing Company.

(35) 23. 1.4.3 Diagram of Research Framework This thesis aims to explore China's energy security issues. Due to the fact that China has become an energy-importing country since 1993 and its demand for energy has surged, issues such as how to avoid energy shortages, evaluating maritime transport risks, unrest in oil-producing countries and consequences of natural disasters on infrastructure necessary to the nation’s energy security, among others, must be addressed. The Central Asian region is geographically close to China, especially those energy-rich countries such as Kazakhstan and. 政治大 ensure China's energy security. However it is because the Central Asian region is rich in 立. Turkmenistan, if a more secure way to transport energy to China overland is adopted it will energy resources that there are great powers choosing to become involved in the region’s. ‧ 國. 學. affairs and to compete for energy exploitation opportunities and the building of strategic pipelines therein, which is a key focus of the research presented in this thesis as well. (Please. ‧. see the Diagram of Research Framework that follows immediately hereafter).. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(36) 24. Chart 1-4: Diagram of Research Framework. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(37) 25. 1.5 Research Limitations In some general contexts, the best approach to study a country is by exploring its official documents. However, due to the fact that the general topic of this study is the issue of energy and concerns national security greatly, acquiring first hand official data or materials has been a difficult task. The research subjects of this research are China and the five nations of Central Asia. Language barriers have posed additional difficulties in obtaining data from the five states. It was mainly through official websites, namely that of the People's Republic of China's,. 政治大 (nengyuan.net), that the preliminary 立 data on energy reserve evaluation publicized by various Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Energy Administration, and the energy news portal. ‧ 國. 學. organizations and production capacity estimates by energy companies could be obtained.. Furthermore, the numbers for production capacity and consumption of oil and natural gas. ‧. vary among different sources. To approximate more accurate numbers, this study incorporates. io. al. y. sit. obtained from the Internet for further analysis.. er. Nat. in part materials from all channels including research by scholars in the field and materials. n. v i n Cofhthe production sitesUof oil and natural gas, transport conducted. First hand observation engchi. Owing to geographic constraints, fieldwork in China and Central Asia could not be. pipelines, refineries, perspectives of local governments and inhabitants were therefore not possible. The objectivity and completeness of research materials and resources used are therefore somewhat compromised..

(38) 26. 2. Overview of the Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation and Strategies of Development Planned for Central Asia. 2.1 Current Circumstances of Energy Exploitation in Central Asian Countries Central Asia is composed of five nations: the republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Central Asian states’ (formerly domestic) economic ties with Russia were cut. The development of. 政治大. energy resources requires capital and technology. Western companies became involved in the. 立. race to exploit energy in Central Asia immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union in early. ‧ 國. 學. 1990’s. Russia, Central Asia’s former dominant player, is less capable in bringing capital and technology to bear upon energy exploitation. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, the reserves amount of oil and natural gas in Central Asia are estimated to be. ‧. well in excess of 33.3 billion barrels and 20.2 trillion cubic meters respectively.. y. Nat. io. sit. Central Asia is composed of five nations: the republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,. n. al. er. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. They all were formerly member states of the USSR.. i n U. v. However, their energy reserves still remained largely underdeveloped. After the collapse of. Ch. engchi. the USSR in 1991, the Central Asian states former domestic economic ties with Russia were initially cut or impeded. In addition, the threat of regional conflict resulted in an economic downturn within the newly independent republics. Later, the economies in Central Asian countries began to recover. This was due in part to the fact that they managed to take advantage of their rich energy resources, as these states came up with practical strategies to adjust aspects of their economies by establishing rules on their resources of energy exports.. 25. The development of energy resources requires capital and technology. Western 25. 劉磊，「淺論中國與中亞的能源合作」，中國社會科學院碩士學位論文(北京：2010 年 5 月)，頁 7。[Liu, Lei. Qianlun Zhongguo Yu Zhongya De Nengyuanhezuo (Discussions on energy cooperation between China and Central Asia), unpublished thesis, GSCASS (Beijing: May 2010), pp. 7.].

(39) 27. companies got involved in the race to exploit energy in Central Asia immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union in early 1990’s. These companies have the capability to intensively focus their capital and technology upon development of the oil and natural gas fields efficiently. Russia, Central Asia’s former dominant player, is less capable in bringing capital and technology to bear upon energy exploitation.. 2.1.1 Energy Reserves in Central Asian Countries Currently, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, the reserve amounts. 治政大 states the Republic of Kazakhstan and 20.2 trillion cubic meters respectively. Among all these 立 has the greatest potential. Its prospective oil reserves are estimated at 30 billion barrels and of oil and natural gas in Central Asia are estimated to be well in excess of 33.3 billion barrels. ‧ 國. crude oil and17.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.. 學. 1.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, followed by Turkmenistan with 600 million barrels of 26. ‧. Additionally, it is worth noting that the Caspian Sea region is able to contribute to oil. Nat. sit. y. production. Although the statistics on the amount of estimated oil and natural gas reserves. er. io. under that sea are varied, but with planned exploration and consecutive development, the final figure for these reserves of both oil and natural gas in this region will undoubtedly rise.. n. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The bountiful resources in Central Asia draw not only the attention of the Caspian's littoral countries but also international powers as well. Thus, Russia, China, the U.S., Europe, Iran, and Japan among others are all competing to exploit the Caspian's resources. It may easily be predicted that the cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in regard to pipeline construction, competition will only intensify for the energy resources in the region.. 18. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013,” BP Global, available at: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf, (accessed: 20121201)..

(40) 28. Kazakhstan has the largest proportion of oil reserves in Central Asia, at nearly 30 billion barrels, followed by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at 0.6 billion barrels respectively. (Please see Table 2-1 below).. Table 2-1: The Proven Reserves of Crude Oil in Barrels (Billion Barrels), at end of 2012 Country. Crude Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels). Republic of Kazakhstan. 30.0. Turkmenistan. 0.6. Uzbekistan. 0.6 2.1. 學. ‧ 國. 立 Other Eurasia. 政治大. Total. 33.3. ‧. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(41) 29. Turkmenistan has the largest proportion of natural gas reserves in Central Asia, at nearly 17.5 trillion cubic meters; followed by Kazakhstan at 1.3 trillion cubic meters and Uzbekistan at 1.1 trillion cubic meters (please see Table 2-2 below).. Table 2-2: The Stock of Proven Reserves of Natural Gas in Central Asia (Trillion Cubic Meters) Country. Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Meters). Republic of Kazakhstan. 1.3. Turkmenistan. 17.5. Uzbekistan. 1.1 0.3. 學. ‧ 國. 立 Other Eurasia. 政治大. Total. 20.2. ‧. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.