論日本民眾對憲法第九條修正案的態度轉變 - 政大學術集成

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(1)International Master’s Program in International Studies National Chengchi University 國立政治大學國際研究英語碩士學位學程. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Why the Japanese people change their attitude toward Article 9? 治政大論日本民眾對憲法第九條修正案立的態度轉變. n. Advisor : 薛健吾. Ch. engchi. er. io. al. sit. y. Nat. 陳鏡羽. i n U. v. July, 2018. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(2) Abstract This research presents the shifting public opinion of the Japanese population towards the article 9 of their constitution. Based on the literature gathered, most information focuses on the influence and feasibility of the constitutional amendment in Japan. Rather than focusing on such, this study offers a more inclusive analysis through concentrating on the public opinion or public’s voice. This matters as public opinion is a requirement of referendum for the constitutional amendments. According to the Japanese constitution, the constitutional amendment requires not only two-thirds of all the members of each House, also needs more than half of the public’s approval. Recently, the public’s opinion toward Article 9 has obviously changed. An inquiry on. 政治大 this research aims to elucidate why the approval rate increases in recent years. This 立. the public attitude changes from disagreeing to agreeing is highly significant. Thus,. research believes that the change of international situation in China, Korea, and the. ‧ 國. 學. United States has made Japanese people feel more insecure, which influences the public opinion on supporting the constitutional amendment.. ‧ y. Nat. er. io. al. sit. 摘要. v. n. 本研究的目的在於分析近年來日本民眾對於日本憲法第九條修正案的態度轉變原因。相關的文獻大多討論憲法修正案的可能影響以及憲法修正案的可行性，較少將重點放在解釋日本民眾意見的變化上，本文試圖在這個部分作出貢獻。根據日本憲法的規定，修憲除了需要由各三分之二的參眾議員同意通過外，更需超過半數以上的民眾附議，因此民眾對於修憲的意見和支持程度至關重要。近年來，民眾對於憲法第九條的修正案出現了明顯的態度轉變，因此本研究將探討為何在近年來日本人民對於修憲的支持度逐漸增高。本文認為，由於近年來中國、韓國和美國的國際局勢開始出現變化，因此改變了日本人民心中的不安全感，所以影響了民意對於修憲的支持程度。. Ch. engchi. i n U. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(3) Contents 1.. Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5. 2.. 1 11 16 18 19. Literature and Argument 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4. 3.. 1. Background The Puzzle My Argument Research Method Arrangement of chapters. 22. The Causation for Changing the Defense Policy The Change of Public Opinion toward Article 9 Lack of Systematic Explanation for the Change of Public Opinion More Possible Reasons? (My perspective). The influence of Media Bias 3.1 3.2 3.3. 33. The Political Bias of Three Main Media in Japan Different Survey Questions to Discuss the Same Topic Different Questions and Age of Respondents led to Consistent Results. 政治大 4. Commitment and Cooperation – United States 立 4.1 Stable (2002 to 2005). ‧ 國. n. al. Economic Partnership Competitive Relationship. Conclusion. References. Ch. engchi U. y. sit er. io. Partner or Competitor – China 6.1 6.2. 7.. Stable (2002 to 2005) Decrease (2005 to 2014) Increase (2015 to 2016; Sharply in 2017) South Korea’s Attitude. Nat. 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4. 6.. 40 42 43 45. Maintaining the status quo and Facing the Missile Threat – North Korea 47. ‧. 5.. Decrease (2005 to 2014) Increase (2015 to 2016) Sharply Increase (2017). 33 34 37. 40. 學. 4.2 4.3 4.4. 22 25 28 29. v ni. 47 48 50 51. 55 56 59. 62 65. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(4) Illustrations Figure 1.1 GDP Figure 1.2 GDP (unit: Purchase Power Parity) Figure 1.3 GDP Growth Rate Figure 1.4 Approval Rates for the revision of Article 9(Different Media) Figure 2.1 Research Framework Figure 3.1 Media Bias in different Media Figure.3.2 The comparison between different Media’s survey question Figure 3.3 Approval Rates for the Revision of Article 9 (Age) Figure 5.1 Japan and South Korea’s perceptions toward each other Figure 6.1 Japan and China’s Trade Volume. 立. 6 7 8 12 32 34 35 39 54 58. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(5) 1. Introduction In recent years, North East Asia has been in the spotlight of world’s attention. Not only its location in Pacific Rim, but also its troublesome issues have let this area stay under lively discussion. Being one of the strong countries and the trustable ally for the United States, Japan’s attitude and policy toward Pacific affairs can never overestimate. Moreover, Japan’s security policy is one of the key factors that might affect the peace of this region. Due to the historical factors, Japan did not have a regular army, most of the security policies in Japan are deeply constrained by the Constitution. To be more concrete in my topic, the first chapter will give a brief introduction to the historical background, the puzzle related to the Constitution of. 政治大. Japan, my perspectives in this topic and the arrangement of chapters in this article.. 立. How does the Constitution influence Japan’s Security policy?. Nat. sit. y. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 1.1 Background. In the past decade, East Asia is the most controversial region in the globe. Several. io. n. al. er. issues are still heated, and these issues are likely to drive this region into conflicts or. i n U. v. worse, provoke war. Among all the East Asian countries, Japan is one of the powerful. Ch. engchi. and influential ones. Due to the interference of the United States, pacifism has been a main goal for Japan’s national identity since World War II. The United States inserted a clause renouncing war into the country’s postwar constitution. The Constitution of Japan promulgated in 1946 and came into effect in 1947. The Constitution has never been amended since then. However, there are signs that the public opinion has shifted in recent years, some of the laws are not suitable for modern society. Moreover, Japanese people’s attitude toward the Self-Defense Forces has also changed, due to the Prime Minister Abe’s policy. Basically, the whole constitution not only regulates the domestic law but also points out the obligation that Japan needs to be done in international society. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution is highly debated due to its specialty.. 1. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(6) Article 9 illustrates the main concept of General MacArthur’s instruction to Japan. After World War II, MacArthur cooperated with Japan’s bureaucracy to create the new version of Constitution. Article 9 prevents Japan from launching a war. The first clause of Article 9 clearly addressed the obligation/regulation: “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.”1 In other words, Japan is not allowed to conduct the following three things: War (The definition corresponds to International Law.), the use of force and deterring neighboring countries. Basically, every military movement is constrained by the law. However, due to the breakout of Korean War, Japan was allowed to rearrange their military force. Although the constitution did not offer Japan. 治政大 The treaty permitted Japan between the United States and Japan changed the situation. 立 to possess the minimum level of self-defense capability. Self-Defense Forces then. power to form a real armed force, the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. ‧ 國. 學. became the special forces to represent Japan’s military power. The existence of “SelfDefense Force” does not mean Japan can resolve the conflict whenever it wants.. ‧. Every action made by Self-Defense Force should be “passive”. In other words, the function of Self-Defense Force is “self-defense”, unless other countries actively. Nat. al. er. io. sit. y. invade or infringing on Japan’s sovereignty, Japan is not allowed to attack initially.. n. Over the past seventy years, Japan did not amend the constitution, but the tense. Ch. i n U. v. relationships with neighboring countries have brought different voice, politicians and. engchi. people gradually concerned about the necessity of increasing the power of the Self Defense. The threats of China and Russia make Japanese people change the attitude toward the constitution. Prime Minister Abe and the cabinets started to promote different ways to interpret the concept of the certain Article, especially Article 9. They tried to redefine the meaning of this clause. Japan’s cabinet approved the explanation of the constitution. This action brought about a remarkable change in Japan’s security policy. The reinterpretation of the constitution corresponds to three actions: collective self-defense(集團自衛權), allies protection(集團安全), grey zone (灰色地帶事態). Basically, these three actions refer to one simple meaning, that is, Japan will use force to defend allies under attack. Furthermore, if Japanese 1. Article 9 - The Constitution of Japan. (Accessed February 18, 2018.) https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html.. 2. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(7) sovereignty or people’s life and rights are threatened, Japan can seek for the possibility to enhance the capability of military force/weapons. Prime Minister Abe did not “revise” the constitution; he insisted that the explanation would still maintain the integrity of the constitution. The action made by him and the cabinet is “reinterpretation”. Despite the guarantee of Prime Minister Abe, the public has still concerns about this landmark military change. Abe’s policy has provoked criticism at home and aboard. Especially, Japanese people have various opinions toward this policy. Some of them worried that this move would break the post-war pacifist identity. Worst of all, it might let the country get involved in unnecessary conflicts. 2 The media even criticized that this is violated. 治政 current international 大 situation.. Article 9 of the constitution. On the other hand, others thought that the change is necessary to interact with. 立. Supporters of the. increasingly severe security environment.. 3. 學. ‧ 國. reinterpretation stated that the change is vital for Japan’s security as it confront an The security environment is more. complicated than the past. From the foreseeable rapid development of Asia and the. ‧. closer relationships of Asian countries, supporters believe that the constitutional amendment can strengthen the SDF’s capability. Then, it will help the country to. y. Nat. sit. effectively defense security threats. Security threats refer to two dimensions; one is. al. er. io. from foreign countries, such as China, North Korea. The other dimension is terrorism.. n. Most people think that China has become a threatening neighbor in the past decades.. Ch. i n U. v. Also, Asia-Pacific area can be said as one of the unstable regions in the world.. engchi. Regional conflicts are foreseeable. On the other hand, Japan is one of the powerful countries in the world, the government of Japan is in fear of the terrorists. On account of the possibly effects from the two dimensions, the transformation of Self-Defense Force is inevitable. 4 Most of the Japanese people were opposed to the change.. In spite of the splitting opinions among people, the reinterpretation of the constitution has already announced since 2014.5 The first practice of this move was 2. Berger, Thomas, and James J. Orr. “The Victim as Hero: Ideologies of Peace and National Identity in Postwar Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 28, no. 2 (2002): 435. doi:10.2307/4126821. 3. Liff, Adam P. “Japan’s Defense Policy: Abe the Evolutionary.” The Washington Quarterly 38, no. 2 (July 30, 2015): 79-99. 4. Katzenstein, Peter J. Rethinking Japanese Security: Internal and External Dimensions. (Routledge, 2008.) 59-71. 5. Mia, A. “Abe Wins Battle to Broaden Defense Policy.” The Japan Times. (Accessed January 2,. 3. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(8) the Japan Self-Defense Force (SDF) deployment to the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. The action gave Japan opportunities to cooperate with foreign militaries and also provided the examination to new security policy. According to the media, Japan did loads of military deployment in South Sudan in November of 2016. 6 Compared to previous Peace Keeping Operation (PKO) deployments, Japan’s deployment in South Sudan not only proved that the capacity of the SDF was sufficient for foreign aid but also made Abe’s security policy succeed. Although people still concerns about the tension and the consequence of amending the constitution, people gradually change their attitudes.. First, the security problem has become more and more important after the. 治政 of issues, the territory dispute, region has its own problem. Asia-Pacific area has loads大立 historical problem and security dilemma. Many scholars have given various idea and. dissolution of Soviet, the threat in all over the world did not disappear, and every. ‧ 國. 學. concept on this topic. Peou pointed out that: “Regional peace and stability rests on the inability of Russia, China, or Japan to transform the world’s unipolar system into a. ‧. bipolar or multipolar world.”7 From his words, we can conclude that the stability of East Asia can cause great impact on world peace.. sit. y. Nat. al. er. io. Scholars like Pang addressed that even states in the Asia-Pacific have signed free. n. trade agreements, but the pursuit of wealth and welfare in this area still depend on the. Ch. i n U. v. stability. 8 Moreover, he suggested that stability rests on the security guarantees. engchi. provided by the United States. Judging from his words, it conveys a simple idea: he regards the United States as “World Police”. Whether the fact is true or not, the United States does play a vital role in this area. Being one of the strongest allies of the United States in East Asia, Japan’s security policy is also vital for the stability of this area. That is the reason why the constitutional amendment should be taken seriously.. 2018.) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/07/01/national/coalition-agrees-on-scrapping-pacifistpostwar-defense-policy/#.Wv4jXtOFMWo. 6. Bearak, Max. “Japan’s First Gun-toting Troops since WWII Have Deployed - to South Sudan.” The Washington Post. (November 21, 2016. Accessed January 12, 2018.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/21/japans-first-gun-toting-troopssince-wwii-have-deployed-to-south-sudan/?utm_term=.8d20e06d431e. 7. Chachavalpongpun, Pavin. “Peace and Security in the Asia-Pacific: Theory and Practice.” Contemporary Southeast Asia32, no. 3 (2010): 494. doi:10.1355/cs32-3j. 8. Pang, Eul-Soo. “Embedding Security into Free Trade: The Case of the United States — Singapore Free Trade Agreement.” Contemporary Southeast Asia29, no. 1 (2007): 1-32. doi:10.1355/cs29-1a.. 4. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(9) Second, according to power transition theory, dominant power tends to have more opportunities to establish a hierarchical order, but this does not infer the long-lasting hegemonic power. 9 After a certain time, a rising power might want to replace the original hegemony, the world system might fall into chaos or transfer peacefully to a new era. So, there are two conditions that might let the rising power be willing to challenge the dominant power or worse, call for war: (1) A rising power reaches power parity with the dominant power. (2) A rising power is dissatisfied with the dominant power. 10 Generally, the evaluation of power refers to a state’s economy power. Take China and the United States for instance, China has been stronger in recent years. Despite the fact that the United States still holds its leading status quo in. 治政 1.3) Some of the scholars and already surpassed the United States. (Figure 1.2 and 大立 critics even believe that China might surpass U.S economy in the future. Regardless GDP (Figure 1.1), China’s GDP purchase power parity and GDP growth rate have 11. ‧ 國. 學. of the consequence, these predictions from the experts indicated that current international environment has changed, and been adding more uncertainties.. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 9. Kang, David C. “The Theoretical Roots of Hierarchy in International Relations.” Australian Journal of International Affairs58, no. 3 (2004): 337-52. doi:10.1080/1035771042000260110. 10. Lemke, Douglas, and William Reed. "Regime Types and Status Quo Evaluations: Power Transition Theory and the Democratic Peace." International Interactions 22, no. 2 (1996): 143-64. doi:10.1080/03050629608434886. 11. McFarland, Susan. “China to Surpass U.S. Economy by 2030, New Report Says.” UPI. (December 26, 2017.) (Accessed April 19, 2018). https://www.upi.com/China-to-surpass-US-economy-by-2030new-report-says/4651514311721/.. 5. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(10) Figure 1.1 GDP. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi U. v i n. 6. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(11) Figure 1.2 GDP (unit: Purchase Power Parity). 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi U. v i n. 7. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(12) Figure 1.3 GDP Growth Rate. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi U. v i n. 8. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(13) China is a rising power, and obviously, it has become the leading power in East Asia or even Asia. The huge population makes China become more capable in several aspects. For instance, if the number of population refers to market; then, China has already become the largest market in the world. 12 Although there are regional imbalances issues in China, it would not change the fact that big cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou are promising cities. It is possible to assume that China has the capability to threaten the status of the United States. Under this assumption, why does Japan matter? As I mentioned before, Japan is the United States best partner and ally in East Asia, or to be more convincing, compared to neighboring countries, this nation is more stable and possibly to offer supports when the United States is in need of help.. 政治大 exchanged “partnership” in international society. The dominant nation gives the 立 foundation in the international community, and its allies gain beneficial goods Scholars like Kim has stated out that dominant nation and its allies share an 13. ‧ 國. 學. (collective and private ones) to support the dominant nation. In other words, the dominant nation can maintain or enforce the certain international order with the. ‧. assistance from its allies. This is the basic pattern for the dominant nation when the country does not have a “challenger.” Eventually, if the assumption of rising China. y. Nat. sit. comes true, there will be one question left to resolve. During periods of power. al. er. io. transition, how does the United States maintain its original position in an international. v i n key points to against rising China. be two power transitions forms, C hAlso, there could U i e h n c Another one might be China and one is China versus the U.S. in the globalgaspect. n. hierarchy? The connection between Japan and the United States would be one of the. Japan’s power struggle in East Asia.14. Speaking of the power struggle in East Asia, economic power and the military power will be the benchmarks. Compared to China, Japan lacks domestic markets. On the other hand, to keep the region stable, both of the countries would need military. 12. Barboza, David. “China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy.” The New York Times. (August 16, 2010.) (Accessed April 13, 2018.) https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.html. 13. Kim, Woosang. “Alliance Transitions and Great Power War.” American Journal of Political Science 35, no. 4 (1991): 833. doi:10.2307/2111496. 14. Lemke, D. (2002). Regions of war and peace. (New York: Cambridge University Press.). 9. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(14) forces.15 The constraint of constitution has let Japan be unable to develop a regular military force. This made constitutional amendment become vital. Just like other democratic countries, public opinion in Japan plays a key background role in policymaking. According to Japan’s law, people are the final decision makers for the constitutional amendment. 16 Thus, Japanese people’s opinion also needs to be included in the constitutional amendment. Despite the fact that the Japanese politician has called for the reform of constitution, the Japanese society seemed to have different opinion.. Focused on the elucidation of Article 9 and the change of international environment, this section hopes to give a brief history of Japan’s constitutional amendment.. 治政 article will mainly shed lights on the public rather than大 the politics elite. Why did the 立 public opinion change in recent years? Lots of considerations and political factor. Nonetheless, due to the importance of Japanese public opinion toward Article 9, this. ‧ 國. 學. might influence Japanese people’s attitude toward the constitution. Why and how do these factors affect it? Questions above would be the puzzle in this article aims to. ‧. solve.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 15. Roy, Denny. “Hegemon on the Horizon? China’s Threat to East Asian Security.” International Security 19, no. 1 (1994): 149. doi:10.2307/2539151. 16. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. “The Point of Regulation.” Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. ( 総務省. “総務省｜制度のポイント.)(Accessed January 2018.) http://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/kokumin_touhyou/syushi.html.. 10. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(15) 1.2 The Puzzle Public Opinions toward Article 9. Despite the fact that the Abe administration has bypassed the reinterpretation for three years, most of the people still disapproved the policy. Many of those opposed to it even called the reinterpretation “war legislation”. Although such a strong anxiety expressed by the public, Prime Minister Abe continued the process of the policy.. However, public opinion has changed in recent years. Figure 1.4 indicated the change of public opinion. Different media might have their own perspectives, so I. 政治大 Yomiuri. The available data in this paper is from 2002 to 2017. Constitutional 立 amendment has been heated topic in Japan for decades. However, as for the Article 9,. collected top three mainstream media to clarify the change; they are NHK, Asahi, and. ‧ 國. 學. not until 2002, a year after 911 attack did the public start to consider about the revision of Article 9. Asahi did not conduct the survey related to the revision of. ‧. Article 9 until 2013, so there would be no data in the past few years. To be noted that, even though the three mainstream media share the same result in figure 1.4, there are. y. Nat. sit. still differences in the question conducted by the three mainstream media. 17 As a. al. er. io. result, to have more subjective consequence, I will compare the difference of the three. v i n and government started to rethink C habout the necessityU of constitutional amendment. e n g claw h iof a country, it is hard to revise or Moreover, the Constitution is the fundamental n. mainstream media in the chapter 3. There are several reasons that Japanese people. even add the new paragraph(s).These conditions brought about difficulty to amend the constitution.. 17. Discuss the differences in Chapter 3.. 11. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(16) Figure 1.4 Approval Rates for the revision of Article 9(Different Media). 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi U. v i n. 12. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(17) An overview of public opinion toward Article 9. The history of the reform of Article 9 traced back to the Gulf War. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait stimulated the voice of reinterpretation of Article 9. Prime Minister Kaifu believed that the reinterpretation would legalize the SDF’s movement against Iraq. However, people were opposed to the reinterpretation at that time.18 Ever since then, the constitutional revision of Article 9 has become the political ramification.. Figure 1.4 indicates the public opinions toward Article 9. The data started in 2002; it was one year after the 911 attack in the U.S. The public discussion raised the. 政治大. amendment issue because of the fear of terrorism. However, judging from the approval rate in 2002 and the following years, people did not take amendment as the. 立. main method to fight against terrorism. The approval rate remained stable until 2005.. ‧ 國. 學. During Koizumi’s long term administration, he pushed through the 2001 AntiTerrorism Special Law. This law is specially promulgated as the corresponding. ‧. measures to terrorism. 19 Meanwhile most of the Japanese people were opposed to Koizumi’s concern. They did not approve that the SDF activities were a direct. io. sit. y. Nat. violation of Japan’s Constitution.20. n. al. er. The approval rate had a sudden drop in 2006. It was almost 60 years after the. i n U. v. enactment of the Constitution. At the same year, Prime Minister Abe continued. Ch. engchi. pushing the progress of amendment. He and the congress successfully established related law “Act on Procedures for Amendment of the Constitution of Japan” to reduce the obstacle of revising the Constitution. However, most of the Japanese people were satisfied with the situation at that time. If we date back to the nature of the Japanese Constitution, it will be easier to find out why most of the Japanese people had this kind of ideology. The nature of the Japanese constitution itself is a negotiation between the U.S. occupation forces and the Japanese government. It is 18. Panton, Michael A. “Politics, Practice and Pacifism: Revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.” Asian-Pacific Law & Policy Journal 11, no. 2 (April 2010): 163-218. 19. Shinoda, Tomohito. “Koizumi’s Top-Down Leadership in the Anti-Terrorism Legislation: The Impact of Political Institutional Changes.” SAIS Review 23, no. 1 (2003): 19-34. doi:10.1353/sais.2003.0031. 20. Panton, Michael A. “Politics, Practice and Pacifism: Revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.”. 13. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(18) based on three basic principles as prescribed by MacArthur: “Popular sovereignty, Pacifism, and human rights.”. 21. Article 9 corresponds to the concept of Pacifism.. More specifically, scholar concluded three of the possible reasons why Japanese continued resistance to the SDF deployment: fear of dragging the whole country into unnecessary conflicts, fear of undue influence by the U.S. and fear of becoming a target of radical extremist. 22 It can be asserted that people with the satisfaction of Japan’s situation believe the act might lead to those problems.. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) takes the constitutional revision as one of its main goal.23 Shinzo Abe became Prime Minister again at the end of 2012. There is no surprise that Abe was back to the route of constitutional amendment. With the high. 治政大 and the Constitution. The Abe would be able to hold transformations in economy 立 approval rate in 2013 went up the first time after the fall in 2006. Although the reform approval rates in 2013,24 some of the Japanese people believed that Prime Minister. ‧ 國. 學. seemed to be possible after Abe took the office. The approval rate fell down again after Prime Minister Abe bypassed the reinterpretation of the constitution in 2014.. ‧. Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet changed the definition of “collective self-defense” and attempted to stretch the constitution. Most of the Japanese people did not want to. y. Nat. sit. revise the constitution. The lowest point came after the reinterpretation; the data from. al. er. io. Asahi even indicated that only 19% of people support the amendment. However, the. n. public opinion gradually changed in recent years (2016, 2017). The approval rate has. Ch. i n U. v. a sharp increase in 2017. Both Asahi and Yomiuri surveys indicate that more and. engchi. more people reconsidered the whole amendment; they agree to have some adjustment for the constitution. The adjustment here is to put the SDF’s basic rules into Article 9. According to the survey held by the Yomiuri Shimbun, there are 49% respondents agree with the adjustment. 25 The result of the survey is highly related to the. 21. Maki, John M. “The Constitution of Japan: Pacifism, Popular Sovereignty, and Fundamental Human Rights.” Law and Contemporary Problems 53, no. 1 (1990): 73. doi:10.2307/1191827. 22. Panton, Michael A. “Politics, Practice and Pacifism: Revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.” 23. Ibid. 24. KYODO. “Support for Abe’s Cabinet Climbs to 57.7% in Latest Poll.” The Japan Times. (August 25, 2013.) (Accessed January 13, 2018.) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/08/25/national/politics-diplomacy/support-for-abes-cabinetclimbs-to-57-7-in-latest-poll/#.WkyazlT1UWo. 25. Yomiuri Online. “The Liberal Democratic Party’s Constitutional Amendment: Coming Next Year. 35 % Approval Rate” (自民改憲案「来年国会に」３５％...読売世論調査.) (December 12, 2017.). 14. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(19) international events. Over the past two years, Japan has been facing the threat of North Korea’s ongoing missile tests. This event raised some of the Japanese people’s awareness toward the constitutional amendment. Meanwhile, the factors mentioned in previous section also raised the public’s attention. Long been viewing itself as a “Pacifist” country, Japanese are more willing to stay in a “peaceful” situation, but we cannot infer that they would not take actions if their safety is threatened by the specific event. In fact, from the trend line of Figure 1.4, it is obvious that some of the international events do cause impact on the public’s attitude. The pattern of the changing attitude is the main purpose of this study.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. (Accessed February 13, 2018.) http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/TO000302/20171212OYT1T50017.html.. 15. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(20) 1.3 My Argument The discussion of the constitutional amendment is not new to the academic field. Over the past decades, some of the scholars and Japanese politicians have had numerous doubts about the compatibility of the constitution, whether the constitution is able to cope with the diversified international environment. Most of the suspicions lied behind the apparent unconstitutionality of the SDF.26 Generally, the content of the constitutional amendment, specifically Article 9, can be divided into four categories: the definition of the SDF, peacekeeping operation in international society, the clarification of giving up the military force, and oversea military operation. Literatures about constitutional amendment often put emphasis on Japanese. 政治大 revision of the constitution requires the public’s approval. In fact, this has also 立 become the obstacle to parties which support the constitutional amendment. Under. politicians and elites’ concerns. However, according to the Japanese Constitution, the. ‧ 國. 學. this circumstance, we can assert that the Japanese civic perspective plays a crucial role in constitutional amendment. Since the public’s opinion is likely to influence the. ‧. future path of the constitutional amendment, there is necessity to discuss the change of the public’s voice. Does the public change their attitude toward Article 9 of. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. constitution?. From figure 1.4, it is clear that there is a changing trend in recent years. 27 So, why. n. v i n does the public attitude change? neoclassical realism as the C hThis study anchors U i e h n g cAccording to Rose, neoclassical realists theoretical framework to solve this question. argue that states seek for seizing and shaping external environment to cope with the. uncertainties of international anarchy instead of seeking security. 28 However, foreign policymakers are likely to be trapped by the domestic institutional structure, also, external threats and opportunities. 29. Neoclassical realism can explain how the. immaterial variable, such as external threats, might influence a nation’s foreign policy. They argue that nation’s foreign policy should include systemic, domestic and. 26. Maki, John M. “The Constitution of Japan: Pacifism, Popular Sovereignty, and Fundamental Human Rights.” Law and Contemporary Problems 53, no. 1 (1990): 73. 27. Figure 1.4 in page 12. 28. Rose, Gideon. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy.” World Politics 51, no. 01 (1998): 144-72. 29. Ibid.. 16. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(21) other influence.30 Basically, the core concept of the Neoclassical Realism shed lights on the impact of the international system upon the state’s foreign policy. And, the state’s foreign policy should include some of the domestic factors. Scholar likes Ripsman, also states that, the international pressure might dominant the nation’s security strategy.31 In this study, Japan corresponds to one of the conditions, when the “threat” comes up, but the government does not provide actual or direct policymaking, domestic factor will influence the policy. Hence, for this study, neoclassical realism is the most relevant theoretical approach.. The whole framework of this study will base on the structure of neoclassical realism. External threat, which is the independent variable in the international system, will. 治政 feeling of insecurity. The feeling of insecurity refers to大 people’s direct feeling toward 立 the nation’s foreign policy. The public’s attitude toward Article 9 is the result.. decide the direction of a nation’s security. The shifting attitude might attribute to the. ‧ 國. 學. According to the logic of neoclassical realists, when the nation’s foreign policy is unclear, domestic factors, such as the public’s voice in this study, can influence the. ‧. policy. In my perspective, Japan’s diplomatic policy mostly includes the instruction from their ally, the United States. However, being one of the strongest nations in East. y. Nat. sit. Asia, Japan needs to have its own opinion to deal with international affairs. The. er. io. change of international environment let the Japanese people alert to change Japan’s defense policy. The government’s ambiguity in security policy made Japanese people. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. started to change their attitude toward Article 9. Despite of the fact that Japan has. engchi. been facing with the change of international environment, the coming up incidents, such as China’s aggressive policy in the South China Sea, U.S foreign policy in AsiaPacific region and the North Korea’s issues, brought about Japanese people’s concern. After all, to be noticed that, even though the change of Japan’s defense policy contains the concept of clarifying the concept of SDF, it does not only refer to the increase of Japan’s military capability, it can also imply to the abandonment of having military power. Nevertheless, I would concentrate on people’s shifting attitude toward Article 9, instead of talking about how to revise Article 9.. 30. Zakaria, Fareed, and Jack Snyder. “Realism and Domestic Politics: A Review Essay.” International Security 17, no. 1 (1992): 177. 31. Lobell, Steven E., Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro. Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), (2010).. 17. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(22) All in all, the main argument of this study would be based on a simple framework: if people’s feeling of insecurity raise, the approval rate of the revision of Article 9 will likely to increase. When people have the fear of the changing international environment, they will seek for the revision of Article 9. In short, Japanese people are more likely to support the revision of Article 9 when the change of the international environment makes them feel insecurity.. 1.4 Research Method My study is to seek for more inclusive explanations for the change of public opinion. 治政 held the discussion under the right or the necessity 大of having regular military. Restricted by the scope of立 elites’ perspectives, literature seldom covers the public’s. toward Article 9 of constitution. Traditional analyses to Japanese constitution often. ‧. ‧ 國. elites’ thoughts.. 學. viewpoint. As a result, my study will shed lights on the public opinion rather than the. Content analysis will be the research method for this study. The original source of. Nat. sit. y. this study is collected from printed publications and broadcast programs. By. io. er. arranging the results from the three mainstream media, Asahi, NHK and Yomiuri, this study aims to analyze the change of Japanese people’s attitude toward Article 9. My. n. al. i n U. v. research aims to predict Japanese people’s attitude toward the revision of Article 9 by. Ch. engchi. the change of Japan’s international environment. External threats from the neighboring countries alert Japanese people the necessity of the revision of Article 9. And, once the public’s feeling of insecurity increases, the approval rate of the revision of Article 9 will increase.. In order to elucidate the topic, this study will cover more details of the external threats. It can be categorized by countries, followed by the order: United States, North Korea and China. I would like to use the countries to illustrate how the international incident or the countries’ action influence Japanese public’s feeling. As I mentioned above, the increase of people’s feeling of insecurity might likely bring up their willingness of revising Article 9. To be noticed that this study will not focus on the actual content of the revision, more likely to shed lights on the reason of people’s 18. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(23) shifting attitude.. 1.5 Arrangement of chapters This article aims to analyze the possible reasons that might change Japanese people’s attitude toward Article 9 of constitution. To be more precise in this topic, this article will focus on the international level’s incidents instead of domestic ones. This article will divide into seven chapters to solve the puzzle: “Why do Japanese people change their attitude toward Article 9 of constitution?” Seven chapters will be followed by introduction, literature review, the influence of the media bias, and the change of attitude affected by three countries: The United States, North Korea and China.. 治政 For the introduction part, I will talk about the change大 of the public opinion in recent 立 years, and use three sections to elaborate my purpose of study. Firstly, the background ‧ 國. 學. aims to shape the basic knowledge of the Japanese constitution. Historical factors such as Pacifism ideology and the original principle of the constitution have deeply. ‧. affected Japanese people’s thought, so there is necessity to speak of the history of the constitution. Secondly, the puzzle seeks to illustrate the main purpose of this study.. y. Nat. sit. Figure 1.4 attempted to indicate the core concept of the study: the obvious change of. er. al. n. argument.. io. the public’s approval rate. Lastly, the section will give a brief summary of the. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The second chapter will cover some of the literature related to the constitutional amendment, also brief of my argument. Basically, literature often talks about the influence of constitutional amendment. Constitutional amendment not only refers to the revision of Article 9, also includes several laws in the Japanese constitution. Most of the literature have mentioned the legitimacy of the SDF during UN’s peacekeeping operation. The scale and the scope of the SDF has created controversial issue. The fundamental concept of the Japanese Constitution has constructed the ideology of Pacifism, but the operation of the SDF could not fully follow this concept. Thus, the SDF dispatch provoked the opposing voice. The public claimed that Japan could make a contribution to the international order as an economic superpower rather than. 19. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(24) military force. 32 However, the change of the international environment once again made the revision of Article 9 become a heated topic to discuss. There will be four sections in this chapter to talk about the change of the public opinion, also, the research framework of this study. The whole study will be constructed by the framework Chapter 3 will discuss about different media’s characteristics and features. In general, different media might put their own perspective into news and their surveys. To make the consequence of the survey more objective in this study, I would illustrate their features, and their viewpoints of the revision of Article 9. Three mainstream media (NHK, Asahi and Yomiuri Shimbun) have their own perspective to it, and the survey. 治政大 in order to have more illustrate the difference of the three media in this chapter, 立 comprehensive explanation for my study.. questions conducted by them also affect the respondents’ answers. Thus, I will. ‧ 國. 學. The following chapters will look at Japan and three countries’ bilateral relationships.. ‧. As I mentioned before, this study will take international incidents to analyze the. Nat. y. public’s attitude. To be more precise at the topic, I will put three countries (The. al. er. io. sit. United States, North Korea and China) in different chapters.. n. Chapter 4 details the strategic/security relationship between Japan and the United. Ch. i n U. v. States, elucidating how the level of the partnership between two countries and U.S. engchi. strategy on Asia-Pacific security affairs might affect the public’s attitude. This chapter will use power transition theory to illustrate Japan and U.S relationship. Japan has long been U.S best ally, two countries not only share the economic resource but also have cooperation in security policy, especially in the Asia-Pacific area. Article 9 is closely connected to Japan’s security defense policy, so it is vital to examine U.S viewpoint in this study. Incidents occurred in each period might possibly cause impact on the survey’s result, so chapter 4 will be divided into four sections, follow by the pattern of the survey: stable, decrease, increase and sharply increase to speak of the change of the public opinion.. 32. Dobson, Hugo. Japan and United Nations Peacekeeping: New Pressures, New Responses. (London: Routledge, 2003.). 20. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(25) Chapter 5 talks about how North Korea’s ongoing missile threat might panic the public, fearing that being attack by neighboring countries. Some of the literature have discussed about the public’s fear toward North Korea33, this made some of the people think of increasing the power of military force. The hardline policy conducted by the United States and Japan has provoked North Korea’s anger, and the situation got worse ever since Kim Jong-un became North Korea’s leader. According to the record, one of the missiles testing in 2017 caused a visible threat to Japan. The missile launch directly landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.34 This chapter will focus on the bilateral relationship between Japan and North Korea, and a section to talk about South Korea’s attitude toward Japan’s revision of Article 9.. 治政 why some of the Japanese people take the revision of大 Article 9 as a way to prevent 立 threat from China. This chapter will divide into two sections to specify Japanese. Chapter 6 aims to illustrate the influence of Japan’s perception of China and explain. ‧ 國. 學. people’s concern about China: economic partnership, security competitor. Also, China is an important factor in this issue; the bilateral relation plays a vital role in. ‧. regional stability. Japan’s revision of Article 9 is likely to influence China’s military policy, under this circumstance; there is necessity to discuss the role of China in this. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. issue.. n. The final chapter concludes the study with a summary of what possible reasons. Ch. i n U. v. might cause impact on Japanese people attitude toward Article 9. This study did not. engchi. focus on the domestic factors of Japan, mostly targeting the international factors. As a result, the main conclusion drawn from this study is that, the shifting attitude of the public resulted from believing revision of Article 9 might increase Japan’s defense capability.. 29. Chapter 2. 34. Berlinger, Joshua. “North Korea's Missile Tests: What You Need to Know.” CNN. (December 04, 2017.) (Accessed January 10, 2018.) https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/29/asia/north-korea-missiletests/index.html.. 21. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(26) 2. Literature and Argument. The constitution has long been a controversial issue in Japan. This issue involves in not only international society, also relates to domestic power struggle. For the international aspect, the United States and neighboring countries still deeply influence the direction of Japan’s defense policy. Scholars and politicians have brought about numerous opinions on this issue. Thus, this chapter is going to have a brief view on available literature, and look for further explanation for it.. 2.1 The Causation for Changing the Defense Policy. 立. 政治大. Traced back to the end of World War II, the Japanese constitution itself is a. ‧ 國. 學. negotiation between the U.S. occupation and Japanese government, the main purpose of the constitution is to eliminate Japan’s possibility to launch a war. Because of this. ‧. purpose, two governments added the concept of Pacifism into Article 9. The definition of Article 9 clearly clarifies that Japan is not allowed to have any military. sit. y. Nat. forces under any circumstance. Judging from the clause, the existence of the SDF itself is a paradox. Scholar argues that the legitimization of the SDF deployment was. io. n. al. er. supported by the UN Charter. 35 In other words, the existence of the SDF did not. i n U. v. violate Article 9. On the other hand, the cost of maintaining hegemonic influence. Ch. engchi. around the world has caused the United States suffers from the economic restraint. Resulting from reason above, the United States gradually supports Japan for its constitutional revision. If Japan is able to defend itself independently, the self-fund policy might reduce America’s economic burden.36 Also, with the rise of China, Foot argues that, the U.S comes up with the great power management strategy cooperating with Japan to balance Beijing’s growing power.37 In general, the U.S attitude toward Japan’s defense policy is highly related to the stability of East Asia region.. 35. Hughes, Christopher W. “Why Japan Could Revise Its Constitution and What It Would Mean for Japanese Security Policy.” Orbis 50, no. 4 (2006): 725-44. doi: 10.1016/j.orbis.2006.07.011. 36. Panton, Michael A. “Politics, Practice and Pacifism: Revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.” 37. Foot, Rosemary. “Power Transitions and Great Power Management: Three Decades of China– Japan–US Relations.” The Pacific Review 30, no. 6 (2017): 829-42. doi:10.1080/09512748.2017.1303535.. 22. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(27) As for the domestic part, Japan’s government and oppositions politicians has been debating for the constitutional reinterpretation for decades. Constitutional reinterpretation has its limit, due to the constraint of the procedure and the public opinion. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is one of the representative parties, which tried to revise the constitution. After the Gulf War, their policy focuses on stretching the constitution to enable the SDF deployment.38 Basically, the LDP put the emphasis on the legal binding of the SDF. However, the opposition politicians, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), stated that the SDF deployment in the Gulf War and other combat operations were based on the concept of “international security” or “collective security”. To maintain the international stability and cooperate with. 治政大explanation, there is no need activity without violating Article 9. Resulting from this 立 to revise the constitution. Ever since then, the debate between the parties still cannot. international society, Japan can take part in any UN-centered multilateral military 39. ‧ 國. 學. reach the conclusion. In spite of the oppositions, the LDP has offered a set of policies to switch the explanation of Article 9 in 2014. Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet. ‧. allowed the forbidden “collective self-defense”, and gave a new explanation to the constitution in 2014.40 The reinterpretation provoked a public outcry. Despite the fact. y. Nat. sit. that Shinzo Abe did not gain support from the public and the oppositions, it can be. n. al. er. io. asserted that Japan’s defense policy has been changed.. Ch. i n U. v. Most of the Japanese considered their country as a peaceful country; they have. engchi. embraced the concept of renouncing war and not having a military for decades. Moreover, they believed in the U.S Coast Guard.41 There were several cases to prove that the Japanese public was reluctant to create any opportunity to trigger a war. One of the famous cases might be the nuclear weapon. Despite having the capability to. 38. Hughes, Christopher W. “Why Japan Could Revise Its Constitution and What It Would Mean for Japanese Security Policy.” 39. Ibid. 40. R., Shiratori. “The Change of Japan’s Country Constructive Model after WWII and Taiwan’s Security Policy.” (白鳥, 令. “第二次大戦後日本における国家形成モデルの変遷と台湾の安全保障政策.”) Speech, International Seminar: Japan’s New Defense Policy and East Asia., (2015.) 41. Traphagan, John W. “How Japan Sees Its Military?” The Diplomat. (August 17, 2012.) (Accessed February 14, 2018.) https://thediplomat.com/2012/08/how-japan-sees-its-military/.. 23. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(28) possess nuclear missiles, Japanese public could not tolerate government’s intention to design and deliver nuclear weapons.42. Scholar like Midford stated that Japanese public opinion began to change toward a “defensive realist” defense policy due to the change of international security environment.43 Other scholars also focus on the territorial dispute in Northeast Asia; they believed that the conflicts in Northeast Asia increased the Japanese public’s awareness of changing defense policy. 44 More precisely, the public concerns are related to the threat from neighboring countries. In other words, they begin to doubt whether the so-called protection from the U.S will still function? In this chapter, I will go through the details about why the public believes changing is better for Japan, and. 政治大. two more reasons in my perspective that might also alter the public’s attitude toward the revision of Article 9.. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 42. Kingston, Jeff. “Does the Nuclear Option Make Sense for Japan?” The Japan Times. (February 25, 2017.) (Accessed February 14, 2018.) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/02/25/commentary/nuclear-option-make-sensejapan/#.WltV1pP1UWo. 43. Midford, Paul. Rethinking Japanese Public Opinion and Security: From Pacifism to Realism? Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2011. 44. Hornung, Jeffrey W. “Japan Chair Platform: Increasing Security Awareness among the Japanese Public.” The New Southbound Policy | Center for Strategic and International Studies. (December 13, 2012.) (Accessed February 14, 2018.) https://www.csis.org/analysis/japan-chair-platform-increasingsecurity-awareness-among-japanese-public.. 24. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(29) 2.2 The Change of Public Opinion toward Article 9 Why did the public opinion change in recent years? Generally speaking, Japan’s security problem is related to two main factors, hegemonic assurances and anarchic threats.45 Generally, the level of Japanese security is deeply affected by the relationship with the United States. Anderson argues that if the United States provides more techniques or weapons to Japan, Japan might reduce their production of security. Aside from the assurance of the ally, anarchic threats also shape the basic direction for Japan’s security production. He suggested that the combination of these two factors lead to specific patterns of Japan’s behaviors.46 The. 政治大 in the past. However, with the rise of China and the increase of uncertainties in this 立 region, Japan is facing relentless pressure nowadays. Scholars believed that the two factors were in the suitable levels to create a relatively stable situation for Japan. ‧ 國. 學. economic constraint made the United States unable to maintain the hegemonic balance. 47 Furthermore, under this circumstance, Japanese politicians started to politicians attempted to revise the “Peace law”, Article 9.. Nat. sit. y. ‧. consider the possibility of constitutional reform. 48 To be more specific, Japanese. al. er. io. Unlike the politicians, most of the Japanese people agree with the constitutional. v i n change in 2005. The disagreement of war. Most of those think C his based on the fear U i e h n c a “war announcement.” Japan has that the amendment of the Article 9 wouldg become n. amendment, but when it comes to Article 9, most of the people disagree with the 49. 50. been a Pacifist country since World War II. Many believe that the change of Article 9 would put an end to postwar pacifism.51 This kind of thoughts can infer that most of the Japanese are not willing to link their country image towards “war”. To be more 45. Anderson, Nicholas D. “Anarchic Threats and Hegemonic Assurances: Japan’s Security Production in the Postwar Era.” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 17, no. 1 (2016): 101-35. doi:10.1093/irap/lcw005. 46. Ibid. 47. Mercado, Orlando S. “PKO Law, Japan’s Constitution and the Asian Fear.” World Bull 1411, no. 2 (1998). 48. Panton, Michael A. “Politics, Practice and Pacifism: Revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.” 49. Midford, Paul. Rethinking Japanese Public Opinion and Security: From Pacifism to Realism? 50. Ibid. 51. “Is Japan Abandoning Its Pacifism?” BBC News. (September 23, 2015.) (Accessed December 14, 2017.) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34278846.. 25. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(30) specific, they do not want to be involved in conflicts. Although Prime Minister Abe stated that the law is just a broader interpretation of the constitution, opponents said the related act is “war bills.” Protests were held in several districts, ever since the law has bypassed in 2014. The public opinions were against with the decision.. However, the public opinion has been changing over the past years. According to the survey conducted by several Medias in recent years, more and more people no longer insisted to maintain Article 9. In spite of the different forms of changing Article 9, the public seems to share a consensus: revising the constitution has its necessity. The following survey was conducted by NHK in July, 2015. This is the only survey dug into why the people agree with the revision of Article 9. The survey asked the. 治政 Answers can be categorized into four reasons: (a) the大 definition of the Self-Defense 立 Force (57%) (b) Peacekeeping Operation in international society (24%) and (c) The respondents to cite reasons why they agreed to the constitutional amendment.. ‧ 國. 學. clarification of giving up military force(8%)(d) Oversea military operation(7%). 52 I will explain more about the above four selective options in the following paragraph.. ‧ y. Nat. al. er. io. sit. (a) The definition of the Self-Defense Force. n. The establishment of the Self-Defense Force resulted from the breakout of the. Ch. i n U. v. Korean War. The United States was urgent to find a temporary military base in Asia;. engchi. Japan became the best choice. Despite the fact that the Self-Defense Force was established under the approval of Western Countries, the existence of the SelfDefense Force itself violated Article 9. Judging from the function of the Self-Defense Force, it is a military force. People have been asking for the constitutional explanation for decades, some of the people consider the reinterpretation as defining the position of the Self-Defense Force.. 52. Aramaki, Ma, and Miki Masaki. “Pros and Cons for Votes against the Constitutional Amendment.” NHK Broadcasting Research and Survey, (2015.) (荒牧, 央, and みき政木. "賛否が拮抗する憲法改正." NHK 放送研究と調查.). 26. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(31) (b) PKO in International Society Japan’s first actual PKO activity can trace back to 1990s. The Persian Gulf crisis in 1990 and the Gulf War were the two challenges to regional peace and international security after the end of Cold War. Due to the constraint of the constitution, Japanese government drafted the UN Peace Cooperation Bill, but failed to pass it. At the end, Japan was too late to take part in the war. 53 Over the past decades, Japan’s contribution to PKO is financial support. According to the statistics, Japan is the second contributors to UN peacekeeping budget.54 The case of South Sudan is the first time; Japanese government dispatched the SDF to cooperate with foreign military troops after the reinterpretation of the constitution. Some of the people think that the. 治政大Article 9 should revise. order to simplify the procedure of attending PKO event, 立. reinterpretation is not enough to legitimize the action of the SDF in PKO activities. In. ‧ 國. 學. (c) The clarification of giving up military force. ‧. Contrary to renew the definition of the Self-Defense Force, some of the people suggest that Japan should stick to the original concept of Article 9, which is. y. Nat. sit. renouncing war. Military forces should never be established, so does the Self-Defense. n. al. er. io. Force. The clarification should prevent the existence of any military forces.. Ch. (d) Oversea military operation. engchi. i n U. v. Japan is strictly forbidden from attacking foreign countries, but some of the supporters believed that Japan should proactively attack countries with potential threat. To enhance their own military capability when having oversea operation, the constraint of constitution might force the Japanese army hardly react immediately. This might put the army at a disadvantage.. 53. Watanabe, Kōji. “Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange.” In Humanitarian Intervention the Evolving Asian Debate, 33-56. Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange, (2003.) 54. “Top 10 Financial Contributors to UN Peacekeeping Budget (Dec 2015) | Global Peace Operations Review.” Global Peace Operations Review Thematic Essays. (December 10, 2015.) (Accessed January 05, 2018). http://peaceoperationsreview.org/infographic/top-10-financial-contributors-to-unpeacekeeping-budget/.. 27. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(32) The survey indicated that, most of the Japanese people think that the definition of the SDF should be clarified. Opinions from the survey are mostly related to the actual function of the SDF. To conclude, people who agree with the constitutional amendment seek for the clarification and the legitimacy of the SDF. Meanwhile, the opponents still believe that the revision of the constitution would drag Japan into conflicts or war. 55. 2.3 Lack of Systematic Explanation for the Change of Public Opinion Literatures seldom put emphasis on Japanese people’s attitude toward Article 9. Most of the articles focus on the struggle between policy makers and international society. 政治大 has involved in many factors, 立 but we cannot ignore the importance of the public (including the U.S and China). There is no denying that the constitutional amendment. ‧ 國. 學. opinion. Why does the public opinion play a vital role in constitutional amendment? According to the Act on Procedures for Amendment of the Constitution of Japan (日. ‧. 本国憲法の改正手続に関する法律), after a concurring vote of two-thirds or more of all the members of each House, the constitutional amendment should be submitted. sit. y. Nat. to the people for referendum.56 In short, amending the constitution requires approval. io. er. by a majority of voters in a national referendum. Public opinion has been wavering in the past decades. The trend of the approval rate in figure 1.4 can prove the wavering. n. al. i n U. v. of the public opinion. Despite of the fact that the public opinion can partially affect. Ch. engchi. the direction of constitutional amendment, the literature did not address much about the change of the public opinion. Scholar like Zou Xiao-ning published a related article in 2004 specified the constitution amending movement of Japan after the 1990s. He found that the change of public opinion toward the constitution can be divided into three reasons. First, most of the Japanese people are aware of the change of international security environment, and the domestic social ideology has strengthened ever since the uncertainty of Taiwan-China relationship increased. Furthermore, politicians and the media made Japanese people believe that the constitutional amendment has its own necessity. Finally, the author stated that Japanese people 55. Aramaki, Ma, and Miki Masaki. “Pros and Cons for Votes against the Constitutional Amendment.” 56. “Act on Procedures for Amendment of the Constitution of Japan.” (E-Gov 法令検索. December 12, 2016.) (Accessed March 14, 2018.) http://elaws.egov.go.jp/search/elawsSearch/elaws_search/lsg0500/detail?lawId=419AC1000000051&openerCode=1.. 28. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(33) desire to create Japan’s new image. Japan’s new image refers to the new position in international society.. 57. Even Zou’s article covers the issue of constitutional. amendment by emphasizing public opinion, but it mainly focused on the whole constitution, not Article 9. NHK also conducted several surveys to find out people’s attitude toward constitutional amendment. NHK’s reporters believed that due to the actively operation of the SDF in the Gulf War, Japanese people realized the necessity of the constitutional amendment. The ideology of revising the constitution has pushed forward after Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet tried to reinterpret the constitution. Aside from revising the constitution, people also considered that the constitutional amendment should discuss in sincere way. 58 Another literature indicated that more than 79% of people agree with revising the constitution due to the vicissitudes of. 治政 to raise the public’s attention to consider Prime Minister Abe, is one of the key factors 大立 examine the constitutional amendment. The concept has been brought out through. time. 59 Literature available discussing about the constitutional amendment often 60. ‧ 國. 學. the surveys, but most of the literature did not head straight to the public opinion. As a result, attributed to the lack of systematic explanation, this study hopes to elaborate. ‧. more on the change of public opinion.. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. 2.4 More Possible Reasons? (My perspective). i n U. v. When it comes to Japan’s defense policy, it is usually connected to the reasons I. Ch. engchi. mentioned above. In spite of having lots of scholars discussed about the effect of defense policy, most of the scholars seldom draft a page for the detailed reasons for the change of public opinion. I would like to discuss more in my study, try to find out reasons for the change of public opinion toward Article 9. There are many possible reasons to explain why Japanese people have changed their attitude toward Article 9 57. Zou, X. “New Foundation and Background in Constitution Amending Movement of Japan After the 1990s— — Analysis on Emphasizing Public Opinion.” Journal of Guizhou Normal University (Social Science)129 (2004): 31-36. 58. Aramaki, Ma, and Miki Masaki. “The Change of Ideology toward the Japanese Constitution.” NHK Broadcasting Research and Survey, (2017). (荒牧, 央, and みき政木. “憲法をめぐる意識の変化といま.” NHK 放送研究と調查) 59. Ibid. 60. Aramaki, Ma, and Miki Masaki. “Pros and Cons for Votes against the Constitutional Amendment.” NHK Broadcasting Research and Survey, 2015. (荒牧, 央, and みき政木. "賛否が拮抗する憲法改正." NHK 放送研究と調查.). 29. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(34) in recent years. Related literature focused on the Self-Defense Force did not talk about further factors. Anderson’s conclusion of Japan’s security production can also illustrate the concerns of public opinion. To be more comprehensive, I will redefine the factor for external threats.. The external threat refers to two aspects, the instability of neighboring countries and the terrorism. Over the past decades, Japan’s preferences have been straightforward. Japan relied on the United States security guarantees and maximized the prosperity. Japan seeks for the protection from the United States; also it accepted the risk to become the United States best ally.61 Risk can be covered through countries which has hostile relationship with the United States. Scholars have tied up the relationship. 治政 of the evidences. Scholar stated that, none of the U.S. 大 policy toward the North Korea 立 will succeed without Japan and South Korea’s support and cooperation. Japanese between the United States and Japan in several issues. The North Korea issue is one 62. ‧ 國. 學. people are suffered from the fear of the ongoing missile testing by North Korea. Some of the people think that if the testing continues, the regional instability will. ‧. dramatically increase and threaten the safety of Japan’s territory. On the other hand, being the world’s third-largest economy, Japan is an alluring target for terrorists,. y. Nat. sit. whether the terror attack would occur in Asia. In the past, Japan often relies on the. er. io. cooperation with the United States to deter or defense the external threats. However, is the United States still capable of paying attention to Asia’s affair while there are. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. problems occur inside the country? Or, does it still have the great power to interfere. engchi. Asia’s affair when the rising China tries to control this region? Meanwhile, although Japan can possess the minimum level of military capacity, the function of the SelfDefense Force is for “counterattack”. In other words, Japan needs to “wait for” others’ attack, and then the Forces can eventually fight back. Due to the constraint, Japan is not allowed to have any “precaution”, this might let Japan fail to protect its territory. Scholar found that “When Japanese people felt entrapment fear, they naturally hoped to alleviate it by resisting to strengthen its military or increasing its alliance. 61. Samuels, Richard J. Securing Japan Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia. (Ithaca, NY: Cornell Univ. Press, 2008.) 62. Perry, William J. “Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations.” Washington DC 12 (1999).. 30. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(35) commitments to the United States” 63 This concept is to illustrate Japanese people have long been satisfied Japan’s role as Pacifism, and they are more willing to keep the same path, not involving or participating in war. However, on contrary to this statement, the survey which conducted in October 2017 by NHK, overthrew the point of view. According to the statistics, people who possessed the feeling of insecurity are more likely to support the revision of Article 9. 64 They believed that the revision of Article 9 might be insurance for Japan’s safety. The survey also indicated that Japan’s alliance commitments to the United States became less important than past decades.65 This description does not infer to the worsening of current relationship between the United States and Japan. Some of the Japanese people just started to consider that with the increasing threats from neighboring countries, Japan needs to form a “real”. 治政大 the feeling of insecurity. corresponded to the concept I mentioned in previous section, 立 People feel the danger or the increasing threats from neighboring countries, then, they. army, instead of only relying on the assistance of the United States. This also. ‧ 國. 學. tend to seek for substantial method, such as the revision of Article 9.. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 63. Izumikawa, Yasuhiro. “Explaining Japanese Antimilitarism: Normative and Realist Constraints on Japans Security Policy.” International Security35, no. 2 (2010): 123-60. doi:10.1162/isec_a_00020. 64. Aramaki, Ma, and Miki Masaki. “The Change of Ideology toward the Japanese Constitution.” NHK Broadcasting Research and Survey, (2017). (荒牧, 央, and みき政木. “憲法をめぐる意識の変化といま.” NHK 放送研究と調查) 65. Ibid.. 31. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(36) Research Framework Figure 2.1 Research Framework. Dependent Variable The approval rate of the revision of Article 9 increases.. Mechanism Feeling of Insecurity. Independent Variables External Threat. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Discussion of this topic will follow the research framework in figure 2.1. I use the independent variables and the dependent variable to explain why Japanese people. Nat. sit. y. change their attitude towards Article 9. In previous sections, I have briefly talked. io. er. about the external threat, such as international incidents; will change the public’s attitude. The following chapters will use the United States, South Korea and China to. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. dig out more details about how the external threat will influence public attitude.. engchi. Basically, the framework above is to illustrate the concept of this study. External threat might lead to Japanese people’s feeling of insecurity, and bring about the consequence. In short, the increase of people’s feeling of insecurity might let people more likely support the revision of Article 9.. 32. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(37) 3. The influence of Media Bias. Public opinion in this thesis based on three main media in Japan. As we all know that, media will have their own perspective in same topics, I would like to point out the difference between each media. Media bias might affect the result of the surveys. Thus, I would like to specify three media’s perspective in this chapter. I chose NHK, Yomiuri and Asahi’s data as my reference. 3.1 The Political Bias of Three Main Media in Japan. 政治大 viewers’ payments of television license fee. This makes its perspective neutral, and 立. NHK is a public service broadcaster; the funding of the company comes from. focus on the public opinion. According to the statistics made by Media Bias/Fact. ‧ 國. 學. Check, it is the most credible media sources in Japan. 66 The Yomiuri Shimbun is the newspaper with the largest circulation in Japan. Due to its largest circulation, it is. ‧. called “the public’s paper”( 大眾紙 ). Its perspective is highly influenced by the. y. Nat. Liberty Democratic Party (LDP). The political perspective of the Yomiuri Shimbun. sit. will lean to the LDP. When it comes to the constitutional amendment, it often. al. er. io. supports the revision of the constitution. The Asahi Shimbun’s circulation is the. n. v i n C support the constitutional newspaper. As a result, it does not h e n g c h i U amendment.. second behind that of Yomiuri Shimbun. It has been considered as the left-leaning. The Yomiuri Shimbun and the Asahi Shimbun share different points of view in various topic. Some of the scholars suggested that Japanese media can be categorized into two different group. One is the Yomiuri Shimbun, which represents conservative, supports the government. The other one is the Asahi Shimbun, this media often against the government, can be seen as the rebel group.67 In other words, the media in Japan is polarized. Scholar Takekawa found that the two media’s perspectives are mostly opposite. The Yomiuri Shimbun often stands for conservative nationalism, and 66. “NHK World.” Media Bias/Fact Check. (May 24, 2017). (Accessed March 14, 2018.) https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/nhk-world/. 67. Nanri, Keizo. “The Conundrum of Japanese Editorials: Polarized, Diversified and Homogeneous.” Japanese Studies 25, no. 2 (2005): 169-85. doi:10.1080/10371390500226258.. 33. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.

(38) the Asahi Shimbun leans to pacifism. As for the attitude toward the United States, the Yomiuri Shimbun is in favor of the United States policy. In contrast, the Asahi Shimbun often stands against American policy.. 68. In general, the two media have. opposite perspective in various topics. Thus, in order to maintain the fairness, I will take three media as the reference for my topic.. Figure 3.1 Media Bias in different Media. Tend to oppose the constitutional amendment. 立. Tend to support the constitutional amendment. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學 The Yomiuri Shimbun Simbun. Neutral: NHK. The Asahi Shimbun. ‧. io. sit. y. Nat. al. er. 3.2 Different Survey Questions to Discuss the Same Topic. n. v i n C h collected from Useveral media. Different media The survey data in this thesis were engchi. share different attitude toward Article 9. The survey questions are designed in specific perspectives. Sankei news has listed the questions to indicate the question might affect public opinion. 69 Based on the chart from Sankei news, I highlight the difference and the focus of the question in figure 3.2. It might be easier to distinguish the perspective of different media.. 68. Takekawa, S. “Forging Nationalism from Pacifism and Internationalism: A Study of Asahi and Yomiuri’s New Year’s Day Editorials, 1953-2005.” Social Science Japan Journal 10, no. 1 (2007): 5980. doi:10.1093/ssjj/jym030. 69. Sankei Digital Inc. "Why Does Different Media Have Different Outcome?" Sankei News, (June 10, 2017.) (“世論調査、各社でばらつきなぜ？.” 産経ニュース.) (Accessed January 5, 2018.) http://www.sankei.com/politics/photos/170603/plt1706030011-p1.html.. 34. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.018.2018.A06.