PLANNING OF POWER DEVEL OPMENT IN TAIWAN

(1)

indicate that indw

,

try has appreciably increased its share of totalsales during the paft decade.

It is essential, from Taipower's view poi肘， as well as from the viewpoint of the entire economy of Free China, that the load forecast be derived as correctly and scientific-ally as possible, taking into consideration all the applicable factors and trends.

The result of out 10-year load forecast, covering 1963、

1972 may be summarized as follows:

1. PE孔K LOAD for Taiwan is expected to increase to 2.315 MW in December 1972

,

which is about triple the actual peak load carried in December 1962. Thisnspresents an average annual cumulative increase of 1 I.6petc釘11.

2.ENERGY REQUIREMENTS is expected to reach 1,528 MW at the sending end in 1972. This represents an increase of 992.MW over the actual requirements in 1962 or、 an average 剖mual cumulative increase of 11.0%.

3.CAPABILITY of the Taipower sYstem will increase to 2,423.9 MW in December 19挖 if the Long-range Power Development Program as of April 1963 is carried 0心t satis-factorily. This is an increase of 1，637.θMWover the system

cap<:bility registered as of December 1962 0r an aver:ilge annual cumulative increase fo 11.9 percent for the 10-year period 1963-1972.

4.GROSS MARGIN will be maintained positive after July 1969. In December 1972, the margin will be 4.5%. However, from 1964 through early part of 1969, the capability falls short and ill December 1967 a shortage of 13% is

exp-ected.

To sum up, en 11.1第 average annual increase rate has

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HSU (徐正才) 任職臺灣電力公司協理之偉E方學畏，今秋會赴泰國曼谷出席聯合國亞經會議第九屆電力小組會議，會期自九月1廿日至十月七日，奉加該會議國家計十六國按國主要提案為投術合作方案，建議在臺設立電力技術人員訓練中心，自亞誼會主辦我方供給設備及訓練師資，誰學長吳訓流利，辭句中舍，提繞道來，漏堂動容，華報以制{掌聲。會期τ迫中，注學長演講四次，拉特將「台灣電扣發展之計到J 錯栽本刑，以警讀者，並可使旅美、日、東南亞等地校文明瞭祖國電一騙者一一力實況。

I would like to take this opportunity to explain to you the Planning of Power Development in Taiwan:

Electric power is an essential raw material for economic developme成立 is required, in varying amounts, by every industrial installation and every individual‘ Tεipower'(Tai-wan Power CompanY) is responsible for furnishing an ade-q叫e， reliable supply of this essential commodity at prices representing the true cost of service.

During the ten Years ending December 31. 1962, energy sales increased at an average annual rate of 14.25的 total sales in 1962 were 4,065 gwh. This rate of growth was achieved despite continuous and sometimes severe shortages in system capability, and in the face of sharply rising power rates.

Sales to industry accounted for 81.9% of total energy sold in 1962, with the remaining 18.1拓 going to residential and commercial customers. These figures, compared with 75.996 for industry and 24.1% for other ~customers in 主952，

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一 7

-been forecasted· for 1963-1972, correspO-nding to 11.680 Gwh of energY sales for the yearof1972. Wh:'-He the existing po-wer system was ba-reiycapable to meet the 1962 loads. it has to be 色xpanded ne-arly three times 111

the coming decade so as to keep pace

with the load grow-tho

How to satisfa-parity meet thislar-ge block of soaring

pow叫em叫 at 伽甜言哀主與亞經會科苔長字表

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_{lved from the following steps:}

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3. Comparative study for th~'selectionofthe importei;l

energy resources in variousstages of development. 4. Setting out the guiding principles for formulation.of

power development program to bestpuit the inter€;-sts of Taipower,· its customers and the Nationas,;a

whole.

5. Technical, financial and economic studies on individ... ual projects for their proper evaluation.

6. Formulation ofthe power development program by selecting among technically and financially. feasible projects in the light of adequacy ~mdeconomy. 7. Periodic review of the program for extensiolls,

am-plification, refinementandjor revision as desirablebr necessary.

The 1962 Taipowεr system was barely able to meet the system loads. To meet the load growth. it should be expa-nded. Th告 needed expansion for the forthcoming decade (1962-72) is estim:lted to be 100 MW of firm p0\ver and150 MW of dependable peaking capability per year in average plus a suitable system reserve. The Taipower development program during the coming decade should therefore achieve this purPose, with new generating capacity being brought into operation in advance of load requirement

,

whenever possible. Projects to be completed before 1975 should also

be considered if they are started before 1972.

Taiwan is endowed with relatively rich hydro-electric potential. But coal reserve on the Island is very much limited and expansion of coal production is confronted with increasing difficulty. Crude oil reserveof any size hasnot been discovered in Taiwan. Natural gas has been found and

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- 9 一 After carefulevaluation, eleven sites are selected for

earlier development. The Tachien reservoir project on the Tachia River inolnding extensions of Kukuan and Tienlun power stations has been thoroughly investigated. It is found to be technically and economicallY feasible.

These favorable sites listed above will be able to fur-nish about 1.246 MW of dependable peakIng capability sup-ported by 375 MW of firm power. These peaking develop-ments together with thermal base-load plants wiil be suitable r.nd adequate to meet the future load demand for the next two decades.

Coal for Power Generation

According to the results of successive survey, the total extr<lctable coal reserve in Taiwan at the end of 1958 amo-unted to 209 million tons. including 109 million tons of fuel

coal and 80 million tons of coking coal. 16 million tons have bee_n mined since 1958. leaving only about 193 million tons at the end 1962. Coal fields are generally located in Northern Taiwan. Producing strata dip at steep angles and are extremely thin (0.25 to 1m). The deepest mine sinks 2

km below the ground surface. Two-thirds of the reserves contain in seams less than 2 feet thick. At present, the annual coal production and consumption are equal, about 4.3 million tons. In 1969, the consumption is expected to increase gradually to 6 million tons, at this rate the known depOsits will be depleted in :about 30 years.

Coal miniug is essentially a manual operation. Modern equipment may not pay because of the thin and discontinued beds. Labour and other mining expenses are increasing as easily accessible and relatelY rich dePosites are gradually

一 10 -.

大會實沌，主克第三九為徐正方學長

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sources of energy: 1. Hydro power 2. Coal

3. Oil & gas 4. Imported fuels. Hydro-Electric Potential

Taipower has made comprehensive

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firm power is low, hydro will be developed to supply system peak-load.

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$10.75 5.25 16.。σ 4.75 0.75 1.00 US$22.50

exhausted. It is estimated that coal price will increase

pr伽blyata 叫“f2-4% annually.Meamvhile，做 METe

in production would not be able to match the increasein consumption.After 1964, the aIlticiPGted shortage of coal supply wili bB100,ooo-700,OOOMT PEr year, TIIh limits the

extension of the extension of the coal-firing facILities-Natural Gas 的d 。在

Preliminary information indicated 的tively promis1一 s at one field is prospect for natural gas. Proven reserves

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at 23 bil.lion M'

H叫 value of 伽 gas is 呵!

1,000 Btu per cubic feet under atmospheric pr己ssure. yye are planning to iller己ase the productivity -from the PTEEeI1t daily capacity of 870,ODO M3to1.7m1IlionLV in 1968. However, very little of tHs producticn will be available fOT power generatiOI1.One another field isreported to have DOES1bly richer depGEitsthan Chingstllli The results Of exp-loration are bein又 closely watched.

we now supplies 600,OOO M3Ilatuml gas daily to afert一 ilizer plant in MiaoH at 46 US cents per IT,i1lion

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The

price is expec叫 to 帥 to c叫e此ve 1叫 W的 more

gas from new fields is available forpower generauon. So far, crude oil is practicallY import巴d (99.8何) Known deposits are insignificant.

Imported Fuels

when 1ocally available fuels are insufficient for needed power generation, fuel oil will first be 1rnported and later may be followed bY nuclear fuels.

Importation of large amount of fuel-oii for power

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will begin

in 胸叩∞∞州eUo叫加油onfj

Shenao No.3 unit. The imported quantity will increase W1W n

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bfeqt:er-t，a己Ci ticn rf 1'EW ttEl'-rr:;;] nitB. Ai ailabilhy cf

irrpcrted oil ccεs not anea.l :J,t presert to be a problem. The presently estim:Jtecl cost will then be US$22.5 per ton with breakdown as follows:

FOB Tann日ra， 6.5 US bhls @ $1.65

Freight and Insurance

Total ClF Taiwan port Import duties and taxes. equivalent to Bank charge and interest

Storage, ham11ing 且nd loss

Grand Total, per M. T.

This is equivalent to 57 US cents per million Btu at heating value of 18,000 Btu per pound.

In Taiwan,nuclear plant will compete with conventional plant burning imported fuel-oil in not too distant future. Presently, plaht investment and production costs~re still considered to be higher than ths conventional plant for most areas of the world. Progress mticle in recent years has cut both the construction and production costs by a substantial amo<.mt and will continue to decrease. With these trends continued, nuclear power will probably become directly competitive in cost with coal-fired pbnts in Taiwan in

19700r 1972. 、

Construction cost for 3 300 MW cap3citY nuclear POwer plant in Taiwan for initbl operation in、 1971 is estimated to be US$ 64,650.000

According to the afore-mentioned appraisal of energy reseurces in Taiwan, the integrated Taipower system will continue toconsist d two corrponents: peak-loan stations by hydro and base-load stations by thermal. This combination represents an economic;}l utilization of both hydro and th-erm31 capacity 3nd is fvnctionally suitoble.

Basic consider;:-,tions in selecting new proiectsforthe1963 -72 progr3minclude adequacy, technical fe且sibility， fin3ncial

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tior·s fer f;;,cilitatir.g pe.aking oj':t'r~tlcn. The additioral re1dng capability will cest only US$75 per kw incremental. Shenao No. 3 (200 MW) is designed to burn lecal coal. It will cost US$l£O per kw.

To meet the growing energy demand immediately after 1966, gas or oil-fired station is the only logic solution. If gas supply is 3dequate, the station will burn gas, other-wise the imported oil. Sive of the unit will be 300 MW. This may be large initially but will become toao small long before retirement.

The Tachien reservoir Project includes the Tachien reservoir to be created by a concrete arch d:am 207 拉 eter high, a power plant housing 8 units of 85 MW each, a supplemental diversion system,<lnd the Kukuan ar.d Tienlun extensiors. The anrH.'.al power ber.efit is estirr ateda,t US$15.2 million and the annual power cost at US$11.6 million. Bes-ides, there are irrigation and other benefits.

The first nuclear power unit will I:e completed in 1971 and will be for base-load operatioD. The second unit (to be completed in 1975) will probably be of similar design and will be installed <It the same site for eC01lOmy.Itis expected that by 1971 or later, nuclear Power will be cheap盯 than

the conventional.

A numder of alternative prcgrams for comparison with the selected program to provide for the system peaking capability have been studied including the convt;ntional thermal (A1ternatiγeA), the peak<load thermal (Alternative

B) and the nuclear and the pumped storage combination (Alternative C). The following is a comparison of the annual costs;

The selected program Alternative (A) Alternative (B) Alternative (C) -14 一 Annual Cost

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US$ 1 million 11.6 15.2 19.1 14.9

feasib1lity

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cerendnbi1ity of fuel 芒 upp八， st3bi1ity of production ccst and general socio-ecorr.iccesirability. AιeqU3.cy. technical feasibility 2.nd financial feasibility are considered 的 pre-requisites﹒ Economy and ether factors determine the choice among alternatives.

Adequate power supply is a major responsibility of any power utility-Power curtailmEIIts in the zecent ycarsm Tdwan caused tremendcus economic and financial daItages nct only during cMailm叫 but also in the years followed Accelerated development of rower is mandetory for impro-vement of the situation in the future.

The target of the development program is an adequate but not extravagant, power supply at all times. System.

Supply OI tputumdEr average hydrologic comditicns be 1Ilsufficient to meEt the dEInand-Likewise, the system capzbility should be adequgte to suppIy systeIB peak load at all times.The system reserve capacity is preferably no less than mpcrocnt of the largest unit in the system, whichever is larger.

In the composite system, the additional output of the hydro component during wet se且sons is useful not only for repkcement of thermal outpus to Eave fuel, but also for compematirlg the thezmal capacity shut down for schRd111ed maintenance-Therefore, in the system, independent stand-by units will not be necessary.

According to the basic consideratior;s outlined above, the projects given below are selected to form the IO-year power development program:

In 1963: a new thermal unit (125 MW) was completed 4 days ago and Shihr叫 Hydro Plant (90 MW) will be completed in November 1963. Kukuan (如MW) :lnd Tienlun (26Mmqexte11sics will be completed in1964at an 1IIcrem-EIItal ccst of US$55per LEw-The IIlinor hydros wiil make me of the existing facilities and their everago production cost will be less than 4 miles per kwh. Hydro improvement project includes provision of pondage for Wul到， Liwu and