氣候變遷對薩爾瓦多食物保存之影響 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學商學院國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程 International MBA Program College of Commerce National Chengchi 治 University. 政. 立碩士論文. 大. ‧ 國. 學. Nat. sit. y. ‧. Master‟s Thesis. n. er. io. 氣候變遷對薩爾瓦多食物保存之影響 The Influence ofathe effects of Climatev Change on Food i l C n Security in El Salvador U h. engchi. Student: Irene Maria Blanco Avelar Advisor: Prof. Jack Wu 中華民國一百年六月 June 2011.

(2) 氣候變遷對薩爾瓦多食物保存之影響 The Influence of the effects of Climate Change on Food Security in El Salvador 研究生：柏愛琳指導教授：吳文傑. Student: Irene Maria Blanco Avelar Advisor: Prof. Jack Wu 國立政治大學. 治. 政商學院國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程大立碩士論文. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. A Thesis. Submitted to International MBA Program. y. Nat. er. io. sit. National Chengchi University. in partial fulfillment of the Requirements. n. al. i n Cfor the degree of U hengchi. v. Master in. Business Administration. 中華民國一百年六月 June 2011. i.

(3) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to start by thanking God for giving me the opportunity to come here, study and endure the program. I have to acknowledge that without his support and guidance I wouldn‟t have been able to overcome this task. I would also want to express my love and gratitude to my beloved family; for their understanding & endless love, through the duration of my studies.. 政治大 This research project would not have been possible without the support of many people. I 立. ‧ 國. and offered invaluable assistance, support and guidance.. 學. wish to express my gratitude to my advisor, Prof. Jack Wu, who was abundantly helpful. ‧. Also, special thanks also to all my graduate friends, for sharing the literature and invaluable. y. Nat. er. io. invaluable moments.. sit. assistance. Not forgetting to my best friends who have always been there for me and shared. al. n. iv n C h e ntogallcofhthose Lastly, I offer my regards and blessings i U who supported me in any respect during the completion of the project.. ii.

(4) ABSTRACT. The Influence of the effects of Climate Change on Food Security in El Salvador By Irene Maria Blanco Avelar Climate change is natural process that refers itself to variations in weather caused by nature. 政治大. or human activity, mainly due to fossil combustion and deforestation that had raised the amount of gas emissions of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere. Due to geographical. 立. situation some countries are more sensitive to these changes than others. Adapting to the. ‧ 國. 學. new climate conditions becomes a challenge that entails economic costs and resources that affect significantly to countries in their economic development conditions. There is a need. ‧. for solutions to create a proper setting to generate long-term sustainable growth strategies. Recent studies have pointed out that the most affected area by this phenomena will be. Nat. sit. y. Central America and among that region El Salvador1. This research will be directed to the. er. io. possible outcome that climate change will have in agriculture and for that in food security.. al. n. iv n C U that been extremely important in heng throughout time. There have been different kinds c hofi crops El Salvador has been an agriculture base economy that has experienced minor changes. Salvadoran economy, one of them is Corn. It constitutes almost half of the dietary pattern of Salvadoran families. The reintroduction of Agriculture could be a viable alternative for the country‟s economy to regain its strength. The main objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between the economic growth model, climate change and the scarce demand of corn consumption in El Salvador.. 1. Juan Luis Ordaz, Diana Ramírez, Jorge Mora, Alicia Acosta y Braulio Serna (2010). Climate change effects on agriculture.. iii.

(5) Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................... iii INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER 1: SIDE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ........ 3 1.1. Implications of Economic development. ............................................... 3. 1.2. Climate Change ..................................................................................... 9. 1.2.1. Agriculture....................................................................................... 9. 1.2.2. Food Security ................................................................................ 11. 1.3. CHAPTER 2: AGRICULTURE IN EL SALVADOR .............................. 21 Supply of Basic Grains ........................................................................ 21. 2.2. Cultivation and production of Corn ..................................................... 31. y. sit. The Difference in Supply and Demand: Food Gap ........................... 38 Availability of Corn in an open economy ..................................... 39. er. io. 2.3.1. al Market of Corn .................................................................................... 41 iv n. 2.4. Demand of basic grains ................................................................. 35. Nat. 2.3. ‧. 2.1. 2.2.1. 3. 學. 2. 政治大 Current Awareness 立of Climate Change ...............................................13. ‧ 國. 1. Un. C. 2.4.1. engchi Production processh ........................................................................ 41. 2.4.2. Transformation Process ................................................................. 42. 2.4.3. Commercialization process ........................................................... 42. 2.4.4. Market price .................................................................................. 42. CHAPTER 3: FOOD SECURITY IN EL SALVADOR........................... 45 3.1. Dimensions of Food Security. ............................................................. 45. 3.1.1. Food availability ............................................................................ 47. 3.1.2. Food security: Access.................................................................... 55. 3.1.3Food access and availability in El Salvador: Structural perspective . 61 4. CHAPTER 4: ADAPTATION MEASURES ............................................ 65 iv.

(6) 4.1. Reintroduction of the Agricultural Sector ........................................... 65. 4.1.1 4.2 5. Adaptation measures for agriculture ............................................. 68. Policies ................................................................................................. 73. CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION .................................................................. 75. REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 77 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................... 79. LIST OF TABLE S. 政治大. Table 1. GDP Structure 1980-2010 in El Salvador ........................................................................... 23. 立. Table 2. Optimum Area to Cultivate Corn ........................................................................................ 34. ‧ 國. 學. Table 3 Basic Food Basket: National Average and by sectors. Current until Dec. 2010 .................. 36 Table 4 Demand for Corn from 1962 to 2010 ................................................................................... 37 Table 5. Imports of Corn from 1992 to 2010 .................................................................................... 40. ‧. Table 6 Average Price of Wholesaler for Corn ................................................................................. 43. y. Nat. Table 7 Annual Variation of Corn Price .......................................................................................... 44. sit. table 8 Estimations of temperature and precipitation variations ....................................................... 48. n. al. er. io. Table 9 Drought and its effect in Corn production............................................................................ 49. v. Table 10 Events of Floods in El Salvador from 1962 until 2010 ...................................................... 51. Ch. i Un. Table 11 Floods in El Salvador by Department ................................................................................ 52. engchi. Table 12 Personal Expense for Corn ................................................................................................. 59 Table 13 Population by livelihood evaluated .................................................................................... 60 Table 14 Comparative Table of Adaptation Measures and Vulnerability reduction......................... 71. LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1 World Population Growth ..................................................................................................... 4 Graph 2 . GDP and Agriculture Value added. 1920-2000. (mill.) .................................................... 22 Graph 3 Evolution of the Agriculture GDP in Central America ...................................................... 24 Graph 4 GDP of Agricultural and Non Agricultural Sectors in El Salvador .................................... 25 Graph 5 Surface Occupied by product .............................................................................................. 26 Graph 6 Structure of the Agriculture GDP, 2009. ............................................................................. 27. v.

(7) Graph 7. El Salvador‟s National Production of Corn, Beans, Rice and Sorghum 2000-2009. (thousand of quintals) ........................................................................................................................ 27 Graph 8 Overview of Cultivated Area and Production of Corn from 1962 to 2010 ......................... 32 Graph 9. Overview of Performance of Corn from 1962 to 2010 ...................................................... 33 Graph 10. FOOD GAP OF CORN IN EL SALVADOR. 1962-2010 Source: Self made ................. 38 Graph 11. Food Gap of Corn including Imports from 1992 to 2010. ............................................... 40 Graph 12 Evolution of the minimum wage for farmers and the basic rural food basket .................. 57 Graph 13 Evolution of the minimum wage for the commerce and services sector and the basic urban food basket ........................................................................................................................................ 58 Graph 14 Evolution of the minimum wage for the textile sector and the basic urban food basket ... 58. 立. LIST OF FIGURES. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect .................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2 Overview of the literature ............................................................................................................. 12. ‧. Figure 3 Corn plantation in El Salvador for the year 2002/03 .................................................................... 54. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. vi. i Un. v.

(8) INTRODUCTION The world is changing; communities face new realities each time more challenging. Since every country is different a deeper approach is needed to improve their strengths and diminish their weaknesses to create sustainability for its economies. There are different types of issues that have risen to the consideration of many; one in particular has caught the attention of every country in the world in one way or another, this is the environmental issue. Climate change has recently started to gain more attention but. 政治大. there is still some discrepancies on the approach that should be taken.. 立. There are also many other issues emerge, one of the most important one‟s to consider is. ‧ 國. 學. Food Security, which has been considered “the most basic problem of mankind” (World Food conference, 1974). This issue is affected by different factors; one of those is the. ‧. environment. This approach will be considered for the purpose of this research.. y. Nat. Something as basic as full access to food should be satisfied in every nation, but given the. sit. different types of economic development that each country has, appears to be impossible.. n. al. er. io. With this concern in mind, many strategies have been created to overcome this situation,. i Un. v. but still some countries have more difficulties and challenges that create major steps back.. Ch. engchi. Food Security has four components: availability, stability, accessibility and utilization2. For this, a key element to consider is agriculture, it has been present since the beginning of civilization and its importance is sometimes overlooked. Nevertheless, agriculture continues for some to be a fundamental instrument for sustainable development and poverty reduction. However, agriculture activities have a negative impact in the environment. It has been considered a major driver in deforestation and together with forestry has contributed to up. 2. Climate change and food security: A frame document. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.. 1.

(9) to 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions 3 , contributing to the climate change phenomenon. Climate change is natural process that refers itself to variations in weather caused by nature or human activity, mainly due to fossil combustion and deforestation that had raised the amount of gas emissions of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere. Climate change is noticeable in the changes in precipitation patterns, rising of average temperatures, rising sea levels, glacier melt and alterations in extreme events; resulting generally from emissions of greenhouse gases.. 治政 others. Adapting to the new climate conditions becomes 大a challenge that entails economic 立 costs and resources that affect significantly to countries in their economic development Due to geographical situation some countries are more sensitive to these changes than. ‧ 國. 學. conditions. There is a need for solutions to create a proper setting to generate long-term sustainable growth strategies.. ‧. Recent studies have pointed out that the most affected area by this phenomena will be. sit. y. Nat. Central America and among that region El Salvador4. This research will be directed to the. io. al. er. possible outcome that climate change will have in agriculture and for that in food security.. v. n. El Salvador has been an agriculture base economy that has experienced minor changes. Ch. i Un. throughout time. There have been different kinds of crops that been extremely important in. engchi. Salvadoran economy, one of them is Corn. It constitutes almost half of the dietary pattern of Salvadoran families and for that, the main objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between the economic growth model, climate change and the scarce demand of corn consumption in El Salvador.. 3. Gockowski, J., & Sonwa, D. (2010). Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions. 4 Juan Luis Ordaz, Diana Ramírez, Jorge Mora, Alicia Acosta y Braulio Serna (2010) Climate change effects on agriculture.. 2.

(10) 1 CHAPTER 1: SIDE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT When considering economic growth and environment conservation in the same picture it turns out in a dilemma. Development for countries had depended on industries that require pollution to function in order to create wealth. Even so, the awareness of the rising economies has also become a problem that could lead to an environmental disaster. This chapter is targeted to describe the relation between development, growth style and. 政治大. climate change. Moreover, it is intended to address the relation between agriculture and climate change, given that the last one could limit the country‟s capacity to produce. 立. products and therefore deteriorate food security.. ‧ 國. 學. It is also considered a review of actions taken to overcome and diminish the climate change effects. So, it is expected to illustrate that the study of the consequences of the climate. Nat. sit. 1.1 Implications of Economic development.. y. ‧. change represents a challenge.. er. io. The development concept has been around for centuries and has been subject to. al. n. iv n C U for many great thinkers, such as the ways to generate it became the h main e nobject g c hofistudy modifications. In a beginning development was associated to the wealth of a nation; in fact. Adam Smith.. According to Adam Smith, there are five factors that contribute to the wealth of a nation, these are: the weather, quality of the land, geographical extension, work productivity and the relation of productive and non productive work5. Smith‟s ideas related especially to work and productivity to contribute to the understanding of capitalist economies. However, there was a step down in the development of the other factors because of the boom of industrialization.. 5. Smith, Adam (1776), The wealth of nations.. 3.

(11) The industrialization model was born in Europe in 17506, that later reached countries like United States and Japan changing the world‟s economic dynamic. The technical development transformed productive process, mechanizing them and creating efficiency in the usage of resources. All built the ground for increasing productivity and allowed to improve the quality of life of the world‟s population, which became transcendental since society hadn‟t experienced significant changes in life quality for the last 250 years (Martinez, 2007). The development of industrial process allowed many countries that did not have energy. 治政 industrialization gave place for the agronomic revolution 大that permitted the world supply of 立 food, which brought a sustained increase in the population growth rate.. resources to gain a comparative advantage that coupled with revolution and the peak of. ‧ 國. 學. Overall, human population growth is tied with the increase use of natural and man-made resources, energy, and land for growing food and for living. Naturally, the exponential. ‧. population growth, since the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution until today – about. sit. y. Nat. 250 years – has had an increase of world human population of six billion people, leading to. io. graph belows.. n. al. er. exponential requirements for resources, energy, food and housing as it can be seen in the. Ch. i Un. v. Graph 1 World Population Growth. engchi. Source: The Industrial Revolution in World History 6. Tearns, Peter N. (1998), online version The Industrial Revolution in World History.. 4.

(12) The birth of the Industrial Revolution would alter medicine and living standards resulting in a population explosion. In only 100 years after the onset of the Industrial Revolution, the world population would grow 100 percent to two billion people in 1927 (about 1.6 billion by 1900). During the 20th century, the world population would take on exponential proportions, growing to six billion people just before the start of the 21st century. That‟s a 400% population increase in a single century7. In addition, the increase in population rate and the degree of industrial development held at the moment permitted an urbanization process. So, with the passing of the years the amount of people living in rural areas decreased every time more and cities demanded more space. 政治大. and energy to host its rising population.. 立. The countries that implemented industrialization process suffered more the migration. ‧ 國. 學. phenomenon to the city than others that did not adopt this model. The migration to the city was mainly caused by higher income that industry generated in comparison to the ones that. ‧. agriculture generated. The increase in the urban income produced higher demand of. sit. y. Nat. products; which at the same time elevated the demand for energy in industrialized countries.. io. er. From the beginning of 19th century until the first half of the 20th century there was an increase in energy consumption, this increase did not become a problem for economies that. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. were in constant growth. The improvement of technologies and the discovery of the new. engchi. sources of energy like oil and natural gas compensated the increase in consumption. These fuels that in the beginning were used exclusively for the industry were later introduce to urban homes allowing major improvements in the economy and livelihood. The difference between the way of living of the inhabitants of industrialized countries and inhabitants of the countries that did not adopt this model was noticeable. Also, the difference in the degree of technological and social breakthroughs led to the creation of develop and developing countries concept. In a develop country there is sustainable growth in the productive capacity of the country distributed in different economic activities.. 7. Tearns, Peter N. (1998), online version The Industrial Revolution in World History.. 5.

(13) The technological progress expanded in all levels achieving homogeneity; even so, population had very low involvement in the agriculture sector and the process was highly technified. Unlike develop countries, developing countries had its productive structure in primary-export activities, low productivity in the agricultural sector and the power of purchase of the people did not allow them to diversify their consumption trend. The third industrial revolution allowed the total consolidation of the industrialization model and made clear the differences between countries. So, in order to diminish these differences the industrialization process was adopted by developing countries, like Latin America, for example, the industrialization model of import substitution was adopted in that time.. the energy consumption worldwide.. 學. ‧ 國. 治政 Regardless of the reasons that motivated the success大 or failure of the industrialization 立 models implemented, the reality is that the change of the growth model impacted most of The above happened since the income from. developing countries was used to buy cars, machinery and others devices that consumed. ‧. energy.. sit. y. Nat. The intensifying energy consumption was not acknowledged as a problem, in fact, it was used as an indicator of the progress in an economy. At the same time, the introduction of. io. n. al. er. technologies that improve quality of life led to the development of the industry, which. i Un. v. transformed the paradigm that would allow for developing countries to reach finally the. Ch. engchi. developed status. The way of life of industrialized countries became a role model. However, it doesn‟t necessarily imply that the way of life of develop countries must be condemned as something bad and that developing countries must follow a prehistoric way of life; what is intended is to evidence on how the expansion of the industrial model is the main responsible of the increase of the world‟s energetic consumption, which occurred between the 18th and 20th century. Furthermore, such increase is not the main problem, but rather the sources where the energy is obtained. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the main source of energy has been fossil fuels. Initially, carbon based fuel were used but further research made possible the positioning of oil as the main source of energy in the world.. 6.

(14) Nevertheless, it should be noted that the usage of fossil fuel as the main source of energy is no accident, in fact, is due to economic and technological factors. Also, the safety and capacity to generate energy from fossil fuels is relatively high compared to others in the short term. So, according to profit maximization and cost reduction, until now, fossil fuel has been the best alternative (Latin America Energy Organization, 2008). However, fossil fuel efficiency is reduced if it is considered the side effects originated from its usage. In the combustion process of a fuel: coal, natural gas or any oil derivative, their carbon (C ) molecules become in contact with the oxygen (O2) molecules and produce a gas called carbon dioxide (CO2 ). This gas is found in its natural form in the atmosphere of. 政治大. the Earth and it is the main responsible of the Greenhouse Gas Effect (GHGE).. 立 Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effec. t. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Source: United Nations Environment Programme. 7.

(15) The greenhouse effect is the natural process by which the atmosphere traps some of the Sun's energy, warming the Earth enough to support life. About 30 percent of the sunlight that beams toward Earth is deflected by the outer atmosphere and scattered back into space. The rest reaches the planet's surface and is reflected upward again as a type of slow-moving energy called infrared radiation. The heat caused by infrared radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone and methane, which slows its escape from the atmosphere. Although greenhouse gases make up only about 1 percent of the Earth's atmosphere, they regulate our climate by trapping heat and holding it in a kind of warm-air blanket that surrounds the. 政治大. planet.. 立. The problems begin when human activities distort and accelerate the natural process by. ‧ 國. 學. creating more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than are necessary to warm the planet to an ideal temperature.. ‧. . Burning natural gas, coal and oil -including gasoline for automobile engines-. . y. sit. al. n. nitrous oxide.. er. Some farming practices and land-use changes increase the levels of methane and. io. . Nat. raises the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Many factories produce long-lasting industrial gases that do not occur naturally, yet contribute significantly to the enhanced greenhouse effect and global warming that is currently under way.. . Deforestation also contributes to global warming. Trees use carbon dioxide and give off oxygen in its place, which helps to create the optimal balance of gases in the atmosphere.. . Population growth is another factor in global warming, because as more people use fossil fuels for heat, transportation and manufacturing the level of greenhouse gases continues to increase.. 8.

(16) Ultimately, more greenhouse gases means more infrared radiation trapped and held which gradually increases the temperature of the Earth's surface and the air in the lower atmosphere.. 1.2 Climate Change The presence of GHGE in the atmosphere is a natural and positive thing to develop life on Earth. However, population growth and development of different sectors have raised the Greenhouse Gas emissions in alarming levels of concentration into the atmosphere. These increases have altered the balance of the climate system which looks to reestablish the lost. 政治大 in the atmosphere circulation, increase of sea level, etc. All of these variations of climate 立 balance with adjustments like warming Earth‟s surface, variations in precipitation, changes. parameters summed up to what is known as the climate change phenomena (MENR, 2007). ‧ 國. 學. The climate change has been discussed broadly and lately the major part of the scientific. ‧. community acknowledges it as an irrefutable fact of global magnitude. Nonetheless, general consent estimates that the main forms of manifestations of the climate change are. io. n. al. er. 1. Changes in the temperature regionally and worldwide.. sit. y. Nat. (IPPC, 2007):. Ch. i Un. 2. Alterations in the precipitation and rain patterns.. engchi. v. 3. Variation in atmospheric pressure, humidity, speed and direction of wind, sunshine and cloudiness. 1.2.1. Agriculture. According to estimations of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), regions with the lowest level of development will suffer the worst consequences due to the high levels of poverty and low adaptability. Also, these regions have another characteristic that could be seriously affected: Agriculture production, which is one the main sources of income.. 9.

(17) Despite the latest technological achievements there is strong dependence between agriculture and climate that is more evident in countries with low development since many of the agriculture techniques they use still have not change substantially in the last hundred years. Agriculture is still considered a key economic activity for those countries that rely on agriculture for its livelihood. Solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation are the main drivers of crop growth; therefore agriculture has always been highly dependent on climate patterns and variations. Since the industrial revolution, humans have been changing the global climate by emitting high amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, resulting in higher global. 政治大. temperatures, affecting hydrological regimes and increasing climatic variability according. 立. to the Climate Institute.. ‧ 國. 學. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce performance of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation.. ‧. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines.. sit. y. Nat. It is known that plants depend on four basic factors for its growth and optimal performance:. io. n. al. er. amount of water or humidity, temperature, luminosity and quality of the soil. Any alteration. i Un. v. on these four factors will compromise the development and performance of any type of. Ch. engchi. crop. For example, the ideal temperature to grow white corn is 23 degrees Celsius; however if a proper irrigation is kept, it can even be cultivated at 28 degrees Celsius. In the other hand, if the corn plant does not get enough water, performance is seriously jeopardized, unless fertilizer is used (Fontg et all, 1993). The example of the corn plant allows having an insight on the climate change effects and agriculture poorly technified. The increase of the temperature and pluvial precipitation variation could have an impact in crop performance. It is necessary to clarify that when referring to crop performance it is referring to the amount of product (measured in weight units) that is obtained when planted in soil extension (measured in area units).. 10.

(18) From an economic point of view, considering costs, higher performance is associated with higher profit and vice versa. A decrease in crop performance or an increase in cost to maintain a level of production will translate into an increase in price to continue having the same profit. A situation that turns out to be advantageous for suppliers is that the demand for this type of food is inelastic. A more cyclical approach can be seen for example in drought and floods which reduces the supply. Nevertheless, climate change entails in the near future a decrease in national agricultural products and due to market forces it will increase the price of them. 1.2.2. Food Security. 立. 政治大. Agriculture has two main functions in the economy: to produce products and raw material. ‧ 國. 學. for the industry, to ensure the reproduction and growth of the economic system (Castro, 2008). The food security concept allows measuring the capacity of the economy to. ‧. guarantee social reproduction. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), food security is a state in which people enjoy, in timely matter,. y. Nat. sit. physical, economic and social access to the quantity and quality of food needed for its. n. al. er. io. proper consumption and biological usage, ensuring general well being. (PESA, 2002) Food security implies four basic components: . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Availability: The existence of sufficient amount of food of proper quality, supplied by the country‟s production or by imports.. . Access: Access to the adequate resources for production: land, labor, agricultural input, knowledge, technology, etc. in order to acquire suitable and nutritious food.. . Stability: solving the cyclical problems related to food campaigns, either for the lack of product or the lack of access to resources such as storage infrastructure, contingency food supply, etc.. . Consumption and biological usage: it refers to food supply that fulfills nutritional necessities for people considering hygiene and equal distribution.. 11.

(19) Furthermore, the decrease of the food demand will have as a consequence an increase in price. So, even if there was a proper availability of food in the market still they will have high prices, preventing people with low income to have access to them. Also, climate change threatens food security from an availability and access perspective. Figure 2 Overview of the literature Industrialization Increase in productivity Means of transportation and media. Economic Development. 立. 治政 Demand and Supply 大 of resources. y. sit. CO2 Emissions. Temperature variations. n. al. er. io. Decrease in performance. Intensive use of fossil fuels. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Nat Agriculture Sector. Energy Demand. Losses due to climate events. Ch. ni U Variation in rainfall e n g cpatterns hi. v. Other climate variations. Reduction of food supply Food Availability. Food Security Food Access. 12. Climate Change.

(20) 1.3. Current Awareness of Climate Change. The culture driven so far is intended to maximize profit at all cost, people had got used to living at the expense of the environment since awareness had just been realized in the 70‟s (Mc Lamb, 2008). Since everything was working its way to achieve progress it seems that more suitable alternatives were not even considered and because of that, a not so bright future was in the horizon. Nevertheless, Technological breakthroughs and improvement in the way of life was always more important to achieve. A catastrophic ending was never considered given that. 政治大 issue, which now has created the need for awareness in the system. 立. eventually a change was going to be made, but unfortunately it has become an uncontrolled. ‧ 國. 學. The concern of human actions in the behavior of the climate alerted the international community in the end of the „70s. The first world conference about climate change was. ‧. held in 1979 in the United Nations (UN). Later, the goal to promote research and adopt international agreements to solve this issue got to the creation of the World Commission of. Nat. sit. y. the environment and development known as Brundtland Commission.. er. io. The commission, runned by Gro Harlem Brundtland, made a report in 1987 where he. al. n. iv n C and effects of climate change, monitor the weather and establish international h escientifically ngchi U politics to reduce the emissions of Green House gas. Also, the report emphasized in the acknowledge the necessity to start negotiations for a world treaty to research the origins. sustainability of social and economic development, considering as key concepts to elaborate politics the following: . Satisfy the human necessities of feeding, dressing, housing and health.. . Technological and Social development must be limited due to its impact in natural resources.. . The capacity of the biosphere to absorb such impact.. 13.

(21) Later to this report, in 1988, the UN absolved the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), which would function under the United Nations Program for the Environment (UNPE) and would also work with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The objective of the IPCC is to be a source of objective information for policymakers and the general public. Moreover, the IPCC is not directly responsible for any research; their reports are created from a comprehensive review, objective, open and transparent to the latest scientific and socio-economic literature (IPCC, 2008). As a result of the first IPCC report, a series of negotiations were held and lead to the adoption of the United Nations. 政治大. Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.. 立. The Convention proposed as a main objective to stabilize GHGs in the atmosphere of the. ‧ 國. 學. Earth, so as to reduce emissions while not interfering with human activities. To date, 165 countries have ratified the Convention, including El Salvador.. ‧. According to UNFCCC, Climate Change is "a common concern to humanity ". If the. Nat. sit. y. atmosphere is considered that way, all countries have to be concerned and must have the. io. er. duty to protect it against serious damages. Nevertheless, countries have a common but differentiated responsibility to fight climate change (MARN, 2008).. al. n. iv n C The signing countries of the convention recognized that due to the dynamics of the global hen hi U c g economic growth, the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere have increased substantially related to natural levels due to anthropogenic activities, making it impossible until now, that the amount of energy released into space as radiation is equal to the one received (AEA, 2004). Industrialized countries have been throughout time the main responsible for the excessive increase of GHGs in the atmosphere, but given that climate change is a global reality, the responsibility to maintaining adequate levels of GHG has turned global. However, and for purposes of assigning levels of participation in this struggle, the UNFCCC sets out a distinction between countries, which have been divided in Annex I and Annex II countries. This division is performed to establish the form of contribution of 14.

(22) each signing country, differentiation also responds to the economic, technological and political capacities, that each country presents. (UN, 1992) The objective of the UNFCCC is established in Article 2, and says: "... achieve, in accordance with the relevant propositions of the Convention, the stabilization of concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” This should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable. 政治大. economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (UN, 1992).. 立. The Convention's basic principles are three: The precautionary principle, common but. ‧ 國. 學. differentiated responsibilities (it is assigned to the industrialized countries the leadership to fight against climate change), and contribution to sustainable development.. ‧. The Convention sets out ten general commitments that can be applied to both developed. Nat. sit. y. and developing countries. In the case of a developing country like El Salvador, the. io. n. al. er. commitments are the following:. Ch. i Un. v. •To create national inventories of greenhouse gas sources and sinks8.. engchi. •To develop policies, plans and programs for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change. •To strengthen scientific and technological research. •To promote education programs and public awareness on Climate Change. Convinced on the importance of taking action to mitigate climate change, the signing parties of the UNFCCC adopted in 1997 the foundations to implementing the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force when 55 industrialized countries had ratified it. The goal. 8. Among the carbon sinks are the oceans that have absorbed about a third of CO2 emitted now, the photosynthesis of terrestrial vegetation and marine plankton.. 15.

(23) imposed by the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce the GHG emissions by 5.2% related to the level of emissions held in 1990, for the period of 2008-2012 (Greenpeace, 2006) The Kyoto Protocol has as its ultimate goal the achievement of the objectives outlined by the UNFCCC and to achieve this it provides subscribed governments the following regulations: . Promotion of energy efficiency.. . Protection and enhancement of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases.. . Promotion of sustainable forms of agriculture in light of the climate change.. . Research, promotion, development and increase use of new and renewable energy,. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. sequestration technologies of carbon dioxide, technological advanced and innovative technologies that are environmentally sound.. ‧. . Progressive reduction or phasing out of market imperfections, tax incentives, tax. y. sit. io. Encouragement of appropriate reforms in relevant sectors to promote policies and. al. n. . er. Convention.. Nat. and duty exemptions and subsidies, that can be contrary to the objective of the. Ch. i Un. v. measures which limit or reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. . engchi. Measure to limit and / or reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the transport sector.. . Limitation and / or reduction of methane emissions through recovery and use in waste management. as well as production, transport and energy distribution (UN,. 1998). In the face of world events, El Salvador as a signing country of the UNFCCC is included in the Annex II, in 1998 ratified the Kyoto Protocol and even though in principle has no commitment to reduce GHG emissions (CEDARENA, 2006), can contribute to reducing emissions from the development and implementation of various mechanisms for that purpose, one of them is called: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). 16.

(24) The CDM allows developed countries to carry out projects and invest in reducing or preventing greenhouse gas emissions in the “Third World”. The purpose of CDM is to support sustainable development in developing countries and contribute to the key objective of the UNFCCC, and to assist the parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified commitments to limit emissions. The CDM can also be involved in the field of mitigation through the sale of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) for projects that encourage more efficient use of fuels, increase use of renewable energy, utilization of cleaner energy and reforestation. (Ayala, 2006).. 治政 It is also necessary to note that El Salvador signed the 大Central American Convention on 立 Climate Change in 1993 and ratified the UNFCCC in December 1995, entered into force ‧ 國. 學. since March 1996. In compliance with these commitments, until now, they have conducted three studies of vulnerability related to: Agriculture, water resources and coastal areas. Also,. ‧. they produced the "First National Communication on Climate Change”, which was officially presented to the convention in early 1999.. sit. y. Nat. In compliance with its commitments to move towards sustainable development, and in. io. n. al. er. view of their responsibilities towards the international community, El Salvador began in. i Un. v. September 1997 the draft National Plan for Climate Change, with funding from the Global. Ch. engchi. Environment (GEF), whose main objective is to produce the National Climate Change Plan in order to have an instrument that enables the transfer of technological and financial resources to ensure the enactment of the variable "Climate Change" in economic and environmental policies. Construction of the National Climate Change Plan would be in charge of a commission that was installed in March 2008 and is expected to deliver an assessment of the capacity of El Salvador in: Generating energy in a sustainable manner, adapt to Climate Change and manage the risks associated with the phenomenon.. 17.

(25) In the international level, the concern to tackle the climate change and its manifestations increases every time more. Since signing the Kyoto Protocol and the implementation of the UNFCCC, there have been at least a dozen of summits to discuss and solve the problem. Since 1990, the IPCC has delivered four official reports on the causes, behavior and scenarios posed by Climate Change. In addition, other programs in the United Nations system have issued reports related to the phenomenon, including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The Human Development Report published by UNDP in 2007, has the following title:. 治政 aspects are the social consequences of the manifestations 大of climate change. According to 立 the report, Climate Change systematically increases the risk of households exposed to the. "Fighting Climate Change: Solidarity in a divided world"; among the most noteworthy. ‧ 國. 學. climate crisis, especially the poorest and over time could damage the human capacity to cope (UNDP, 2007).. ‧. In addition, climate change will affect humankind and it will develop through five. . Lack of water stress and water insecurity.. . Increase in sea level and exposure to weather.. . Ecosystems and Biodiversity.. . Human Health (UNDP, 2007).. n. al. er. Agricultural production and food security.. io. . sit. y. Nat. mechanisms, which are:. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Of these mechanisms, agricultural production and food security have been the most important in the international environment, due to increases in food prices experienced over the last year. Two recent examples of global concerns about climate change are the Annual Conference of the Organization of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the annual summit of eight industrialized countries (G-8).. 18.

(26) The FAO meeting in Rome, during the month of June 2008 was called "High Level Conference on the World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy". The main objectives of the conference were: . Identify new challenges of global food security, supply and demand, and policy and market structure.. . A better understanding of the relationship between food security, climate change and bioenergy.. . Design a process involving the defense of food security international agreements related to climate change and bioenergy.. . 政治大. Discuss and adopt policies and strategies necessary to ensure food security in the world (IEO, 2008b). 立. ‧ 國. 學. On the other hand, the annual summit of G-8 in Japan during the month of July 2008 had as main themes: climate change, food security and energy security. In the summit's final. ‧. declaration included the following statement: "Climate change is one of the greatest global. y. Nat. challenges of our time "; they added: "... We commit to fighting climate change in. sit. accordance with our common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. n. al. er. io. to address the interlinked challenges of sustainable development, including energy and food security, and human health.”. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Obviously, there are other efforts of governments and civil societies to fight the effects of climate change. However, submission is not the goal of this section, but rather to demonstrate that there is an obvious concern for Climate Change and its consequences, particularly those related to food safety. The rapid growth of economic activities that rely on fossil fuel consumption is strongly related to GHG emissions, and the highest concentration of these gases is responsible for a higher frequency in the occurrence of extreme weather events. The main manifestations of climate variability will affect the agricultural sector, especially in the least developed countries. The effects of climate change will be reflected mainly in the production and consequently in the price of food. Therefore climate change could threaten food security due to the decrease of food availability or a limited ability to access them. 19.

(27) There is some level of consensus on the challenge of Climate Change. For this reason the international community has signed agreements and had conferences to design policies to cope with the phenomenon. Moreover, the organizations responsible for studying climate change agree that one major challenge that arises is ensuring the food security of the inhabitants, especially in least developed countries. Therefore, studying the relationship between Climate Change and Food Security in El Salvador is a necessity to face the changes ahead. Also, since it has been pointed out that the most affected countries are the ones in the developing status and they are expected to bear approximately with around 80% of the. 政治大. damage cost caused by climate variation according to the World Bank.. 立. Considering its extension and geographical location, Central America is one of the highly. ‧ 國. 學. affected regions, among Latin American countries, that periodically are strike by hurricanes and floods which impact negatively in the economical activity and well being of the. events.. ‧. population and it is very likely that the climate change will intensify these type of extreme. sit. y. Nat. It has come to the attention of many that among the Central American countries, El. io. n. al. er. Salvador is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to these effects. In recent years,. i Un. v. there has been a major impact in the economy of the country due to the number and. Ch. engchi. intensity of the natural disasters that have impacted it in its economical activities such as Agriculture.. 20.

(28) 2. CHAPTER 2: AGRICULTURE IN EL SALVADOR. 2.1 Supply of Basic Grains Throughout history, agriculture in El Salvador has been very important; it was for several years the most important economic sector due to its participation in the gross internal product and the income from exports of products like coffee, corn and sugar cane. It contributes to a great part of the generation of jobs, especially in the rural area.. 政治大 indigo. It was introduced by the Spanish throughout the 16 century, and then the anil 立 spread in the Central American region and became the main export product of the province,. The agriculture started having its major impact with anil, which is one of the sources of th. ‧ 國. 學. thanks to the increase in the world‟s demand for natural dyes.. ‧. In the XVII century, El Salvador produced 77.7% of the Central American exports of anil that were destined to Europe; it became the biggest producer of anil in Central America.. Nat. sit er. io. (Dada hirezi, 2000). y. The production kept on increased until it became 86.3% of the total exports of El Salvador.. al. n. iv n C in the diversification of the commercial h eagriculture; n g c h i soUexemptions were made for products. Given the great dependence of anil in El Salvador, Spanish authorities decided to incentive. like coffee, cotton, cocoa, sugar; in a way it gave the same advantage as to the producers of anil.. However, the discovery of synthetic dyes in the first half of the 19th century forced producers to slowly give up the anil production. So, in the last decades of that century anil stopped being the main export product, since its price decreased faster than the quantity produced and allowed the production of coffee. The exports of coffee started to reach the ones that anil had in a paused but constant process. So, in 1874 coffee exports represented 35% of the total and in 1892 got to 80%. The transition from anil to coffee had a big impact in the society. When the coffee production started, people from every social angle try their luck in this crop. 21.

(29) Graph 2 . GDP and Agriculture Value added. 1920-2000. (mill.). 學. ‧ 國. 立. 政治大. Source: Oxford Latin America Economic History Data. ‧. The coffee production experimented an accelerated growth, due to exploitation of new land for cropping. Besides, the role that the government played was very determinant for its. Nat. sit. y. success. The economic change more important in the rural area was coffee and mining.. io. al. iv n C graph 2, the agriculture he n g c h i Uproduction. n. most profits to producers.. er. From these products, coffee was the biggest growth in exports and the one that represented. As it can be seen in the. is coming from almost. constituted the core of the gross internal product and for clarification, the value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. In El Salvador, where traditional agriculture was well established, the introduction of coffee cultivation techniques requiring more complex represents a serious problem. The introduction of new agricultural technology, the fact that coffee was a plant that bore fruit until three or four years, and new ways of organizing work, meant that producers had to learn new ways to finance your crop.. 22.

(30) During the „70s, El Salvador was a country mainly agricultural, with a contribution of 28% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Also, it generated around 67% of the total of exports, participated with more than 25% of the income from tax operations and was a source of employment for more than 50% of the population.9 Nevertheless, during the 80‟s, the economic politics that had been executed have not stimulated the productive investment in the agricultural sector. In one part, the government sector related to the rural development had weakened and in the other, the public investment in the rural areas decreased, provoking disincentives of private investment in the primary production and in the agro industrial activities.. 治政 In consequence, rural areas have suffered a strong 大 process of decapitalization which 立 implied a significant reduction in the participation of the agricultural sector in the economic ‧ 國. 學. structure of the country. In the last two decades of the last century, the agricultural GDP decreased from 27.1% to 9.8%, even though in the last years it has presented a modest. ‧. growth gaining a 11.9% in the year of 2010, given probably to a better environment for international prices in primary products.. sit. y. Nat. io. n. al GDP current prices (mill. of dollars) Agriculture Industry Services. 1980 3,322.2. 1990 4,800.9. er. Table 1. GDP Structure 1980-2010 in El Salvador. i 17.1% n C h27.1% U i e n g c h21.7% 15.6% 57.3%. v. 61.2%. 2000 13,139.1. 2007 20,372.6. 2010 22,114.6. 9.8%. 11.2%. 11.9%. 23.1%. 20.3%. 20.5%. 67.2%. 68.5%. 67.6%. Source: Central Bank of Reserve El Salvador. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of El Salvador in the document Public Expenditure for Agriculture Development of El Salvador (2010), Agriculture has had one of the lowest growth rates in Central America in the last four decades. Between 1960 and 2005, Agriculture in Costa Rica increased in more than 400%, Guatemala and Honduras in more than 300%, meanwhile El Salvador only increased a 58%, also below Panama and Nicaragua. The average growth rate of the agriculture in El. 9. Data from Central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador.. 23.

(31) Salvador for the whole period was of 1.4%, against 4.0% in Costa Rica, 3.7% in Honduras and 3.1% in Guatemala.. Graph 3 Evolution of the Agriculture GDP in Central America. Evolución del PIB agropecuario en países de Centro América (1960-65=100) 500 450 400 350. Costa Rica. El Salvador. Guatemala. Honduras. Nicaragua. Panamá. República Dominicana. 300. 立. 250. 370. 政治大. 227 204. 60-65. 66-70. y. Nat. 0. 71-75. 76-80. io. sit. 50. 81-85. 86-90. 91-95. 96-00. 01-05. er. 100. 158. ‧. ‧ 國. 150. 315. 學. 200. 457. Source: Ministry of Agriculture of El Salvador; Agriculture Public expense for the development of El. n. al. Ch. Salvador. engchi. i Un. v. So, in the last decades the agriculture sector has presented a strong decrease in coffee and cotton, which are traditional product, and at one point coffee became the main export product; an inertial behavior and limited growth of the basic grains and livestock until 2005 where a strong expansion follow in the next years. The limited growth of the agricultural sector in El Salvador responds to the dynamism of the rest of the sectors of the economy. Between 1990 and 2007, the agriculture only grew 40% meanwhile in the rest of the sectors grew more than 100%.. 24.

(32) Graph 4 GDP of Agricultural and Non Agricultural Sectors in El Salvador. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Source: InterAmerican Development Bank. ‧. The agricultural sector was for many years the most important one for the Salvadoran economy, but due to a war in the 80‟s and the many land reforms, that limited the land. sit. y. Nat. tenure, the agricultural sector began to lose importance to the industrial and service sector.. io. er. In the recent years, the lack of a politic that stimulates the sector, the climate factors and natural disasters and the fall on the export product prices have contributed to the poor. al. n. performance of the sector.. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Nevertheless with the return of peace, after 12 years of military conflict, general production has been able to recover and has become self-sufficient in basic grain matter. The country produces mainly coffee, sugar cane, basic grains (corn, rice, sorghum and soy).. The cultivated surface of El Salvador is around 700, 000 hectares of land of them more than 50% is destines to basic grains. The 90% of the production of basic grains is concentrated in small parcels of land throughout the country10. The crops are performed by farmers of low income and limited access to credit lines that is why is held subsistence farming with low tech and productivity and a modest part is destined to exports. 10. Data from Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of El Salvador. 25.

(33) Graph 5 Surface Occupied by product. 政治大 Source: minister of Agriculture and Livestock of El Salvador 立. ‧ 國. 學. The importance of the agriculture sector is not only the fact that it contributes to a great part of the economic growth but that is a sector that absorbs and employs a significant. ‧. quantity of labor. Around 40% of Salvadoran people live in the rural area of the country,. sit. y. Nat. and of it around 40% is employed in the agricultural sector. It employs approximately 17%. io. proportion being employed (Central Reserve Bank, 2011).. n. al. Ch. er. of the economically active population; however it has been presenting a decrease in the. i Un. v. There are 13 productive sectors in El Salvador; one of them is Agriculture which includes. engchi. the basic grain subsector. This sector has had an average participation share of 10.97 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2000 to 201011. The most important agriculture items in terms of their value in the production are the basic grains with a 21.3% in production; others agriculture productions like fruits and vegetables with 20.4% and with increasing importance; livestock with 18.4% and poultry farming 14.4%.. 11. Data from the central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador. 26.

(34) Graph 6 Structure of the Agriculture GDP, 2009.. 立. 政治大. Source: Central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador. ‧ 國. 學. Corn, beans, rice and sorghum are the most consumed grains in El Salvador, the last three do not exceed 5 million quintals in the last 10 years and their level of production is quite. Nat. y. ‧. stable as shown in the graph 6.. n. al. Ch. engchi. er. io. (thousand of quintals). sit. Graph 7. El Salvador’s National Production of Corn, Beans, Rice and Sorghum 2000-2009.. i Un. v. National Corn Production National Beans production National Rice production National Sorghum production. Source: self elaboration from data of the Central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador. 27.

(35) In the case of the corn grain is evident the upward trend in national production with an average of 15, 093 thousand of quintals for this period. There is a tendency to prioritize corn production than other basic grains and freeze out rice production. In average, the corn production equals eight times the bean production, 32.8 times rice production and 4.2 sorghum production. The Corn Production represent 69% of the total production of basic grains in the last 10 years, 19% for Sorghum, 10% for beans and only 3% for rice. Also, in the same graph can be identified a big drop in corn production for the year of 2001,. 治政 due to the earthquake that hit the country in the beginning 大of that year and a strong drought, 立 losing 80% of the crop in the most affected areas .. in which was only produced 19.17% of the production the previous year. This happened 12. ‧ 國. 學. Moreover, the effects of the climate on the production of basic grains have had a negative historic impact in production. In the case of drought, it represents an average of 14% of the. ‧. performance of corn, 9% of Sorghum, 13% of rice and 8% of beans when compared to. sit. y. Nat. normal years13.. al. er. io. Furthermore, abnormal rain causes an average reduction in the performance of 23% of. n. corn production, 15% of sorghum, 25% of rice and 13% of beans 14 . There is a strong. Ch. i Un. v. relation between the production of basic grains and temperature conditions, availability and rainfall pattern distribution.. engchi. So, considering that corn is one of the most important elements of the basic basket of food and it is a basic ingredient in the Salvadoran kitchen included in most of the local dishes, the production of corn will be from now on the main interest of this research when talking about basic grains and food security. The corn production is done mainly by small producers, in the context of an economy of self preservation, the priority is to fulfill the food needs in the family group, and with the surplus, generate income for other expenses of the household. In general, the small 12 13 14. Draught in El Salvador (2003) International Organization of the Red Cross OAPA,( 1998) MAG. idem. 28.

(36) producers cultivate in excluded lands, with limited access to technology and with low performance and profitability. In order to understand this situation a brief overview on agricultural production in El Salvador is later explained.. El Salvador's agriculture is characterized by having a monocultivation model. This model has been implemented according to geographical areas and climate and soil characteristics of the country. For example, in high mountainous areas was introduced coffee cultivation, while in coastal areas, originally grew cotton and later sugar cane. This agricultural strategy shifted the basic grains crops to small plots where farmers cultivated only the necessary. 政治大. amount for subsistence, so in the basic grains sector was developed a model of self subsistence.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. Furthermore, monocultivation also influenced the ownership structure. With the goal of achieving significant returns it was necessary to have large tracts of land devoted exclusively to coffee, cotton and sugar cane, so the ownership of property was just in the. ‧. hands of a few landowners which favored the agricultural strategy that El Salvador was. sit. y. Nat. taking.. al. er. io. This ownership structure led to inequality between the population and low production of. v. n. basic grains, which at the same time, resulted in a wide gap between the needs of the. Ch. i Un. population and the actual production. All this resulted in economic and political instability,. engchi. which in the late sixties and early seventies led to a land reform. Land reform looked to dismantle large landholdings and give them to small producers and cooperatives. The implementation of two of the three stages of the reform in the mid 1970's allowed a considerable increase in the area that was meant to be for corn and, consequently, this led to an increase in production. However, the implementation land reform did not prevent the increase in economic instability and social and political life, therefore, early in the decade of 1980 took place the beginning of the civil war in El Salvador.. 29.

(37) The conflict that lasted more than twelve years drove the decline in planting intentions by farmers. After the war and the signing of the Peace agreement, the trend change to an increase in plantings of corn, consequently resulting in historical harvests. Moreover, in parallel with the consolidation of the peace agreement was implemented the Structural Adjustment Program (SAPs), which among its goals was the consolidation of a model of commercial trade liberalization. Free trade generated losses in the agricultural sector of basic grains, as subsistence farmers could not compete with the price of imported products. Additionally, the reduction of state support to agriculture was evident with the shutting down of the Institute Regulator of. 政治大. Supply (IRS) and reduced the operational capacity of the National Center for Agricultural. 立. Technology (NCAT).. ‧ 國. 學. Both factors influenced so that the production of corn would decrease compared to previous years. To complete the analysis of the supply, it is undeniable that the current. ‧. government's commitment to the agricultural sector is paying off, as in the recent past years a clear upward trend in corn production was held.. sit. y. Nat. The understanding of the socio-political and economic factors affecting the supply and. io. n. al. er. demand of corn is important. However, as explained above, the purpose of the research is. i Un. v. related to the study of the influence of climatic factors on food security, so that from this. Ch. engchi. moment on the analysis of the variations will focus on climate aspects. As a first step in determining the influence of climate on food security is necessary to review in detail the production, an overview from 1962 on domestic production of corn is presented. Afterwards, it is added the imports (for the years in which the data is available) and compared with the estimated demand, thus to obtain a diagnosis of the food security situation in the country.. 30.

(38) 2.2 Cultivation and production of Corn In El Salvador there are 325,000 approximately of producers of basic grains, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. In terms of the area destined for the cultivation of basic grains adds up to more than 75%, which are concentrated in areas of less than 5 acres of land. Of all of these, corn absorbs 26.4%, sorghum 12.1%, beans 5.8% and rice 1.5%15. As shown before, corn cropping and production is one of the most important elements of the household food. It is necessary to have a broader view of the behavior of this grain in the Salvadoran economy, the Graph 7 and 8 present the official data on area planted,. 政治大 extended period; the variations can be identified in an easier way. 立. surface and performance of corn. The data is arranged from 1962 to 2010 since is an. ‧ 國. 學. In the graphs shown below it is possible to identify a clear upward trend between 1962 and 2010, increasing in over 400 percent. It is easy to appreciate the way in which production. ‧. has grown; in fact, production has grown at an average annual rate of 5.7 percent. However, there is evidence that can see periods in which production has had significant reductions.. y. Nat. sit. In the crop year ending in 1973, for example, production fell more 37 per cent over the. er. io. 1972 harvest. Other declines occurred in 1977, 1992, 1995 and 1998. Obviously, an. al. n. iv n C h e n gvariability however, the reasons explain this climatic c h i Uin the production will be discussed. immediate conclusion from the table and figure 2.1 is to offset increases in production losses,. later.. 15. Data taken from the minister of Agriculture of El Salvador. 31.

(39) Graph 8 Overview of Cultivated Area and Production of Corn from 1962 to 2010. 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Source: self elaboration from data of the Central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador. sit. y. Nat. For the area planted, between 1962 and 1981 there is a growing trend not so strong with a yearly average variation of nearly 4 percent, then, between 1982 and 1983 there is a drop of. io. n. al. er. more than 19 percent. From 1984 to 1991 it has been able to become stable and with a. i Un. v. sustainable growth, and until 1992 there was an abrupt change in planted area, peaking in. Ch. engchi. 1993 with 323.181 hectares due to the end of the civil war.. From this point on there has been greater variability in its behavior, however, the tendency to decrease in corn planted areas is clearer. Between 1993 and 2009 there have been further declines in surface planted, resulting in the loss of nearly 25 percent of the area destined for this product in the peace agreement.. 32.

(40) Graph 9. Overview of Performance of Corn from 1962 to 2010. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Source: self elaboration from data of the Central Bank of Reserve of El Salvador. ‧. It is important to note that the performance presented in the graph is a direct construction of. sit. y. Nat. the area and output variables and does not represent the actual "Natural"16 returns of crops.. er. io. Between 1962 and 2010, corn performance has risen by more than 179 percent,. al. n. iv n C "qualitative leap" in yield has beenhobserved in the e n g c h i Uperiod 1993-2003 when the annual maintaining a growth rate of more than four percentage points per year. However, the more. growth rate of income exceeds the rest of the period in more than three percentage points.. According to the Directorate General of Agricultural Economics (DGAE) of the Ministry of Agriculture, according to the technical level of 2005 expected corn performance were about 3.3 ton / Ha (MAG, 2008). The level of expected return is higher by more than 50 percent to average higher performance were observed between 2000 and 2007. Climate variability has been affecting the production of basic grains throughout the history, in the reduction of physical performance. As mentioned before, the climate change phenomenon caused considerable damages in the agricultural years of 1986, 1987/88, 16. There is no natural performance itself, since most of seeds in the country have been genetically improved, that is, through human intervention.. 33.

(41) 1991/92, 1994 and 2001/02; not meeting the expected production. It can be acknowledged in the rainfall pattern when transitioning from the dry to the wet season, making the dry season longer and creating an impact on agriculture. Considering all of the above, various factors influence the variation in performance of corn and other grains in between them can be mentioned: . The quality of the soil. 70% percent of corn production is done in slopes; it is not possible to expect higher returns.. . An increase in the price of inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) prevents increased. 政治大 Instability in the price of agricultural products specifically for grains may discourage 立 their production for consumption and on the other hand, to guide farmers to produce utilization and thus higher returns.. 學. ‧ 國. . corn for biofuel. . Changes. in. weather. associated. climate. change.. For. example,. ‧. increasingly constant presence of. with. the phenomenon "El Niño", which increase the. sit. y. Nat. duration of the dry season.. io. er. In addition, based on the historical conditions observed in corn crops many studies have been conducted to obtain optimum conditions for harvesting and also to have a reference. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. line; one of them was presented in the First National Communication for Climate Change. engchi. from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources developed by Gerardo Merino (1998). The results are presented in Table 1 and are made of Based on data from the National Center for Agricultural Technology and FAO.. Table 2. Optimum Area to Cultivate Corn Crop. CORN. Altitude. Temperature. Precipitation. (masl). ( Co). (mm). 0-600. 18-30. 600-1200. Source: CENTA- FAO. 34. Km2. 5,346.43.

(42) According to official data for 2007, as mentioned before, in El Salvador were idle 343 000 hectares, of which 40 percent was suitable for the cultivation of basic grains (Muñoz, 2008). Therefore, there are at least 137 000 hectares of land available to grow corn, that is, there is still room to expand production significantly. 2.2.1 Demand of basic grains. The information presented so far has been about the behavior of corn production, however, one of the objectives of this research is to analyze whether the level of production allows having the necessary amount of food for survival and reproduction of the Salvadoran. 政治大. population.. 立. There is no single criteria to determine which is the amount of food needed for a person to. ‧ 國. 學. achieve the satisfaction of their needs. It depends on the age, physique and level of physical activity, among other factors. However, to facilitate the analysis concepts such as dietary. ‧. patterns and food basket are used.. sit. y. Nat. As mentioned before, a dietary pattern is a set of food consumed by the majority of the population, of which they get the highest amount of energy they need. However, it is. io. n. al. er. impossible to limit the population's diet to one or two products; therefore, from the dietary pattern is built what is known as basic food basket.. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. The food basket is a wide range of food that provides the minimum amount of food needed to obtain the necessary nutrients to ensure proper use and exploitation by the population. According to the Department of Statistics and Census (DIGESTYC) the food basket consists of the following product.. 35.

(43) Table 3 Basic Food Basket: National Average and by sectors. Current until Dec. 2010 Urban-Daily food Intake. Rural -Daily food Intake. Average Daily food intake. per person (gr). per person (gr). per person (Gr). Corn(Tortilla). 223. 402. 312.05. Beans. 79. 60. 69.5. Rice. 55. 39. 47. Meat. 60. 14. 37. Milk. 106. 31. 68.5. Egg. 28. 30. 29. Vegetables. 127. Fruits. 157. Sugar. 69. 65. 36. 14. 49. 0. 979. 671. Flour (bread). 86.5 67 25 24.5. ‧. Total. 63.5. 學. Fat. 政治 0大 86. 立. ‧ 國. Article. 830. sit. y. Nat. Source: General Direction of Statistics and Census of El Salvador.. io. er. In table 4 the information presented shows that the urban basket contains 11 products while the rural only has 9. It is also clear that the quantities vary according to the area where the. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. population is located, making it difficult to know exactly how much is the amount needed to meet the needs of all population.. engchi. Returning to the fact of interest of this research, a parameter to determine the demand for grains should be set. Official surveys use as a minimum requirement per person 307.35 grams of corn per day. Then, the information gather from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of El Salvador (MENR) will be use to determine the demand corn. Once the minimum requirement per person is established, is necessary to determine the population to which it will be applied. The results of the latest population and housing census conducted in 2008 will be use. Once the population data is obtained it is necessary to apply the daily requirements of corn and then get the total requirements for each particular year. The results are presented below.. 36.

(44) Table 4 Demand for Corn from 1962 to 2010 Year Corn (TON). Corn (ton). 1962. 291,608.00. 1963 1964. 301,876.10 312,505.90. 1965. Year. Corn (ton). 1987 1988. 526,280.00 535,536.30. 1989. 544,955.50. 323,509.90. 1990. 554,540.20. 1966. 334,901.40. 1991. 564,293.60. 1967. 346,694.00. 1992. 574,218.50. 1968. 358,901.90. 1 1 1. 政治1993 大 1994 371,539.60 立 1997. 412,295.00. 1998. 419,546.50. 1999. y. 426,925.50. 2000. al. 2001. n. 1976. 405,168.80. io. 1975. 1996. 587,613.20 1 592,147.20 1. Nat. 1974. 398,165.70. 434,434.40. 1977. Ch 442,075.30. 1978. engchi. 596,716.20 1. 601,320.40. sit. 1973. 1995. er. 1972. 1. 384,622.30. ‧. 1971. 1 583,114.00. 學. 1970. ‧ 國. 1969. 1 578,649.10. i Un. v. 1 605,960.10 2 610,635.70 2 615,347.30 2. 2002. 620,095.30. 449,850.60. 2003. 624,879.90. 1979. 457,762.70. 2004. 629,701.40. 1980. 465,813.90. 2005. 634,560.20. 1981. 474,006.70. 2006. 639,456.40. 1982. 482,343.70. 2007. 644,390.40. 1983. 490,827.20. 2008. 649,362.45. 1984. 499,460.00. 2009. 654,372.87. 1985 1986. 508,244.60 517,183.70. 2010. 659,421.94. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2. Source: Selfmade. 37.