The effect of buffer size of critical chain on project performance 劉錡霖、曾清枝
E-mail: 342130@mail.dyu.edu.tw
ABSTRACT
Today firms usually are situated in a high intensity of competitive and limited environment; hence the project is the very activity for the special needs. As well known, project is inherent with various levels of uncertainty and risk. To monitor and control project performance, Pajares and Lopez-Paredes (2010) combined Earned Value Management and the concept of risks analysis and presented two indexes, called Cost Control Index and the Schedule Control Index, to provide an early warning when project execution variance exceeds the allocated buffer size at any period proposed by them. However, the allocated buffer size may be too larger or less to lead in an excess or shortage. Hence, this study proposes an index, called Optimal Control Index, to adjust the buffer size based on project execution variance. Finally the study uses a simple example to illustrate.
Keywords : Earned Value Management、Monte Carlo Simulation、Project Buffer Table of Contents
中文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．ii 英文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．．iii 誌謝 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．iv 目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．．．．v 圖目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．vii 表目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．．．．．．．．．ix 第一章 緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．1 1.1研究背景與動機．．．．
．．．．．．．．．．．．．1 1.2研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．3 1.3研究架構．．．．
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．4 1.4研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．5 第二章 文獻探 討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．6 2.1實獲值管理．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．6 2.2蒙地卡 羅模擬軟體Crystal Ball．．．．．．．．．．．9 2.3整合實獲值管理以及風險管理：風險基準和專案緩衝 ．．
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．15 2.4 To Complete Schedule Performance Index．．25 第三章 演算 法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．27 3.1建立資料表．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．28 3.2定 義資料分佈型態．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．32 3.3設定預測值．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．34 3.4設定模擬次數並進行運算．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．35 3.5查看模擬結果．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．．．．．36 3.6根據模擬結果建立風險基線以及權重．．．．．．．．．．38 3.7計算專案時程緩衝與成本緩衝與累計時 程緩衝與累計 成本． 緩衝．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．41 3.8根據最佳控制指標計算當期時程緩 衝與成本緩衝調整係數．42 3.9專案緩衝績效指標．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．47 第四章 實例驗證．．．
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．49 4.1案例介紹．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．49 4.2計算專案案例 之預估緩衝值．．．．．．．．．．．．．．50 4.3建立專案實獲值．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．54 4.4使用 專案調整係數計算下一期緩衝值．．．．．．．．．．55 4.5專案緩衝績效指標．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．59 第五章 結論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．61 參考文獻．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
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