第六章 研究結論與政策建議
第二節 政策建議
B、 各個變數之 EViews 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: SQR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.652464 0.0925
Test critical values: 1% level -3.632900
5% level -2.948404
10% level -2.612874
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SQR(-1) -0.351051 0.132349 -2.652464 0.0122
C 0.026378 0.011275 2.339525 0.0255
二、 普考錄取率
普考錄取率（JQR）檢定結果如附表 B.2 存在單根，為非定態數列：
附表 B.2 變數 JQR 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: JQR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.265817 0.1882
Test critical values: 1% level -3.632900
5% level -2.948404
10% level -2.612874
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
JQR(-1) -0.269263 0.118837 -2.265817 0.0301
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Null Hypothesis: D(JQR) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.511760 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -2.634731
5% level -1.951000
10% level -1.610907
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(JQR(-1)) -0.958002 0.173810 -5.511760 0.0000
三、 高考錄取人數
高考錄取人數（SQN）檢定結果如附表 B.4 存在單根，為非定態數列：
附表 B.4 變數 SQN 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: SQN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.122020 0.2376
Test critical values: 1% level -3.632900
5% level -2.948404
10% level -2.612874
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SQN(-1) -0.240111 0.113152 -2.122020 0.0414
C 565.9408 278.1534 2.034636 0.0500
將該數列進行 1 階差分 d(SQN)，檢定如附表 B.5 即成為定態數列：
附表 B.5 變數 d(SQN)單根檢定結果
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Null Hypothesis: D(SQN) has a unit root Exogenous: NoneLag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.389900 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -2.634731
5% level -1.951000
10% level -1.610907
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(SQN(-1)) -1.104752 0.172890 -6.389900 0.0000
四、 普考錄取人數
普考錄取人數（JQN）檢定結果如附表 B.6 不存在單根，為定態數列：
附表 B.6 變數 JQN 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: JQN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.618642 0.0995
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
JQN(-1) -0.333842 0.127487 -2.618642 0.0139
D(JQN(-1)) 0.226623 0.171769 1.319348 0.1974
D(JQN(-2)) 0.206944 0.175868 1.176696 0.2489
C 649.4319 301.9726 2.150632 0.0400
五、 高考薪資占民間薪資比
高考薪資（SWR）檢定結果如附表 B.7 不存在單根，為定態數列：
附表 B.7 變數 SWR 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: SWR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 7 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.401294 0.0195
Test critical values: 1% level -3.689194
5% level -2.971853
10% level -2.625121
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SWR(-1) -0.271898 0.079940 -3.401294 0.0030
D(SWR(-1)) -0.316944 0.180509 -1.755838 0.0952
D(SWR(-2)) -0.182639 0.163226 -1.118935 0.2771
D(SWR(-3)) 0.117980 0.154776 0.762261 0.4553
D(SWR(-4)) 0.331787 0.148974 2.227148 0.0382
D(SWR(-5)) 0.294930 0.160163 1.841439 0.0812
D(SWR(-6)) 0.295732 0.143842 2.055953 0.0538
D(SWR(-7)) -0.005336 0.122044 -0.043723 0.9656
C 0.333268 0.096719 3.445737 0.0027
六、 普考薪資占民間薪資比
普考薪資占民間薪資比（JWR）檢定結果如附表 B.8 不具單根為定態數列：
附表 B.8 變數 JWR 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: JWR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 7 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.690968 0.0881
Test critical values: 1% level -3.689194
5% level -2.971853
10% level -2.625121
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
JWR(-1) -0.202576 0.075280 -2.690968 0.0145
D(JWR(-1)) -0.113768 0.195128 -0.583042 0.5667
D(JWR(-2)) -0.124304 0.177744 -0.699341 0.4928
D(JWR(-3)) 0.131411 0.169918 0.773377 0.4488
D(JWR(-4)) 0.260974 0.163792 1.593327 0.1276
D(JWR(-5)) 0.161912 0.170548 0.949365 0.3544
D(JWR(-6)) 0.233956 0.158009 1.480650 0.1551
D(JWR(-7)) -0.087396 0.148624 -0.588034 0.5634
C 0.194342 0.070286 2.765008 0.0123
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Null Hypothesis: UR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 8 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.055335 0.0187
Test critical values: 1% level -4.339330
5% level -3.587527
10% level -3.229230
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
UR(-1) -0.880319 0.217077 -4.055335 0.0009
D(UR(-1)) 0.539820 0.200772 2.688721 0.0161
D(UR(-2)) 0.373859 0.225904 1.654943 0.1174
D(UR(-3)) 0.309268 0.209621 1.475364 0.1595
D(UR(-4)) 0.223768 0.223663 1.000468 0.3320
D(UR(-5)) 0.348343 0.241582 1.441922 0.1686
D(UR(-6)) 0.301318 0.238019 1.265942 0.2237
D(UR(-7)) 0.398551 0.233928 1.703733 0.1078
D(UR(-8)) 0.513193 0.241627 2.123906 0.0496
C 0.000122 0.002835 0.042990 0.9662
@TREND(1978) 0.001178 0.000300 3.921945 0.0012
八、 失業率標準差
失業率標準差（URSD）檢定結果如附表 B.10 不存在單根，為定態數列：
附表 B.10 變數 URSD 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: URSD has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.231243 0.0008
Test critical values: 1% level -4.243644
5% level -3.544284
10% level -3.204699
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
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URSD(-1) -0.926056 0.177024 -5.231243 0.0000
C 0.003169 0.000780 4.060278 0.0003
@TREND(1978) -4.53E-05 2.58E-05 -1.755176 0.0888
九、 人均國內生產毛額（PCGDP）
人均國內生產毛額（PCGDP）檢定結果如附表 B.11 具單根，非定態數列：
附表 B.11 變數 PCGDP 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: PCGDP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 9 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.857439 0.6472
Test critical values: 1% level -4.356068
5% level -3.595026
10% level -3.233456
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
PCGDP(-1) -0.810749 0.436487 -1.857439 0.0844
D(PCGDP(-1)) 0.557001 0.416686 1.336741 0.2026
D(PCGDP(-2)) 0.160312 0.374794 0.427733 0.6754
D(PCGDP(-3)) 0.299416 0.318931 0.938811 0.3637
D(PCGDP(-4)) 0.127069 0.267011 0.475896 0.6415
D(PCGDP(-5)) -0.069645 0.292164 -0.238377 0.8150
D(PCGDP(-6)) 0.177150 0.291422 0.607882 0.5530
D(PCGDP(-7)) 0.313963 0.265627 1.181971 0.2569
D(PCGDP(-8)) 0.519348 0.266061 1.951990 0.0712
D(PCGDP(-9)) -1.050405 0.290454 -3.616426 0.0028
C 35121.09 11382.58 3.085512 0.0081
@TREND(1978) 13627.63 7069.586 1.927642 0.0744
將數列進行 1 階差分 d(PCGDP)，檢定如附表 B.12 為不具單根的定態數 列：
附表 B.12 變數 d(PCGDP)單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: D(PCGDP) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.174474 0.0001
Test critical values: 1% level -4.262735
5% level -3.552973
10% level -3.209642
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(PCGDP(-1)) -1.653815 0.267847 -6.174474 0.0000
D(PCGDP(-1),2) 0.422377 0.175911 2.401085 0.0230
C 15916.77 4903.630 3.245917 0.0030
@TREND(1978) 512.2018 228.3462 2.243093 0.0327
十、 臺股指數
臺股指數（TAIEX）檢定結果如附表 B.13 存在單根，為非定態數列：
附表 B.13 變數 TAIEX 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: TAIEX has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.512040 0.3206
Test critical values: 1% level -4.273277
5% level -3.557759
10% level -3.212361
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
TAIEX(-1) -0.450230 0.179229 -2.512040 0.0185
D(TAIEX(-1)) 0.352356 0.203641 1.730282 0.0954
D(TAIEX(-2)) -0.038333 0.193476 -0.198129 0.8445
D(TAIEX(-3)) 0.164536 0.193573 0.849992 0.4031
C 772.5836 551.0656 1.401981 0.1727
@TREND(1978) 89.34121 47.82901 1.867929 0.0731
將數列進行 1 階差分 d(TAIEX)，檢定如附表 B.14 即不具單根的定態數列：
附表 B.14 變數 d(TAIEX)單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: D(TAIEX) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.108589 0.0000
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Test critical values: 1% level -2.634731
5% level -1.951000
10% level -1.610907
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(TAIEX(-1)) -0.886344 0.173501 -5.108589 0.0000
十一、 臺股指數標準離差率
臺股指數標準離差率（TAIEXV）檢定如附表 B.15 不具單根，為定態數列：
附表 B.15 變數 TAIEXV 單根檢定結果
Null Hypothesis: TAIEXV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.821765 0.0665
Test critical values: 1% level -3.653730
5% level -2.957110
10% level -2.617434
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
TAIEXV(-1) -0.752070 0.266525 -2.821765 0.0089
D(TAIEXV(-1)) 0.016756 0.256547 0.065315 0.9484
D(TAIEXV(-2)) 0.157879 0.229523 0.687856 0.4974
D(TAIEXV(-3)) 0.310848 0.183792 1.691310 0.1023
C 0.100277 0.039911 2.512475 0.0183
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Dependent Variable: SQR Method: Least Squares Date: 06/08/14 Time: 17:06 Sample (adjusted): 1979 2013
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.323971 0.092323 3.509108 0.0017
DSQN 1.96E-05 4.94E-06 3.958005 0.0005
SWR -0.208788 0.084603 -2.467853 0.0205
UR -2.555841 0.678401 -3.767448 0.0009
URSD 0.270487 3.758383 0.071969 0.9432
DPCGDP -7.49E-08 4.57E-07 -0.163991 0.8710
DTAIEX 1.04E-06 4.19E-06 0.247387 0.8066
TAIEXV 0.084082 0.044403 1.893596 0.0695
T 0.003289 0.001251 2.630096 0.0142
R-squared 0.704008 Mean dependent var 0.074819
Adjusted R-squared 0.612933 S.D. dependent var 0.041637 S.E. of regression 0.025904 Akaike info criterion -4.251785 Sum squared resid 0.017447 Schwarz criterion -3.851839 Log likelihood 83.40624 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.113724
F-statistic 7.730011 Durbin-Watson stat 1.791156
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000029
再經由該計量軟體得出式 (5) 當期 SQR 受前期經濟變數影響模型之迴歸 分析結果如下附表 C.2 所示：
附表 C.2 當期 SQR 受前期經濟變數影響模型迴歸分析結果
Dependent Variable: SQR Method: Least Squares Date: 06/08/14 Time: 15:03