• 沒有找到結果。

第五章 實例應用

6.2 建議

1. 本研究採用格位傳送模式(CTM)來預測車輛到達型態,未來亦可採用其他預測 模式來進行旅行時間的估算,檢視不同預測方法之間的差異。

2. 偵測器佈設的多寡與準確的佈設位置對推估結果應有顯著性的影響,若偵測 器佈設能蒐集到的路段流量資訊越齊全,必能提高動態起迄旅次矩陣的推估正 確性,未來應可就偵測器佈設之議題進行分析。

3. 進階卡門濾波模式中可適度考慮當推估誤差增大時,應如何建立收斂機制以 控制誤差範圍,以及反應偵測器所蒐集到的路段流量之誤差。

4. 真實之動態起迄旅次矩陣資料難以獲得,對模式之推估結果便難以進行驗證。

5. 未來可朝向建構具有路徑選擇的推估與預測模式,期能進ㄧ步應用於一般都 市路網。

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