建議

最後，本研究建議未來可以朝以下幾個研究方向繼續努力：

一、探討不同船型的影響：全球商船船隊由各類船舶所組成，不同類別之船舶亦 是市場區隔的基礎之一，然當某船型之運費高於市場預期，產生超額利潤 時，將會促成其他船型之船舶加入競爭，故海運市場間其實有潛在的替代 性。未來可將波羅的海乾散貨運價指數的代表船型－海岬型、巴拿馬型及超 極限型的運價指數納入參考，以更深入探討不同船型間的關係及其對運價的 影響。

二、五年二手船價與新船船價之間是否存有明顯的互動現象，後續研究尚可考慮 採用長時間的三種散裝船價為研究數據，探討三型散裝新船船價對運價的變 動是否存在顯著相關連動。

三、由於本研究的國際原油價格數據為2002年一月至2007年十二月，當時的油價 最高為每桶89.42美元，而現在的國際原油價格已突破每桶130美元，所以原 油價格的影響是否顯著，可再深入的探討。

四、本研究所提出9項影響波羅地海運價指數的因素，仍未完全健全，其中有些 無法以量化考量之因素，仍有影響力，故建議後續研究可針對重大事件之影 響因素加以進一步探討。

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五、本研究僅考量新興國家中的中國大陸經濟發展作討論，但運輸需求會隨著地 理性需求或供給型式的改變，全球散裝貨物的消費重心應當會有所轉變。除 了中國外，印度、俄羅斯、巴西等國家經濟實力逐年增加，此發展趨勢會對 全球海運市場產生何種影響，均可再深入探討。

參考文獻

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附錄

Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Residuals -3

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Expected Normal Value

Predicted vs. Residual Scores Dependent variable: BDI

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Predicted Values -1500

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Residuals

95% confidence