第五章 結論與建議
第二節 後續研究建議
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第二節 後續研究建議
本研究針對臺灣北部區域進行房價漣漪效應之分析，實證結果發現臺灣北部 縣市間確有存在房價之相關性與領先程度，更細至行政區尺度下亦可觀察出房價 之傳遞具有落後期存在，而房價之影響程度隨著距離中心房價區域增加而削弱。
然本研究基於研究限制與範圍，仍尚有未臻完善之處，故於此提出後續研究之相 關建議與發展可能。
政府之區域政策應考量區位相近行政區之影響
實證結果可得臺灣北部區域房價漣漪效應以地理區位為主要影響因素，若政 府針對一地區進行政策規劃與實施時，應考量實施地區與鄰近地區的房價影響，
於政策規劃時，一併將鄰近地區之房價影響納入考量。
房價指數之資料取得尚有未臻完善之處
由於本研究採用之房價指數資料源自於好時價房價指數，其資料來源係由不 動產實價登錄平台取得，然其實行時間仍短，資料時間長度仍略顯不足，而少數 地區之交易案例不足未能建立該區之房價指數。又於Granger 因果關係之測試中 發現最大落後期的設定對於後續因果關係有相當程度之影響，未來實價登錄資料 更加齊全後，能延長研究之時間範圍，並找尋建置完整之房價指數資料以利更完 善後續之研究。
增加相關影響房價之因素進行討論
由於影響房價之因素有很多難以逐步篩檢與釐清，本研究非著重在探究房價 因果關係背後之原因，而是經實證來檢視是否具有房價擴散現象，後續研究則可 進一步檢視其影響的背後原因，並增加影響房價的因素進行分析討論。
進一步研究房價漣漪效應背後之影響因素
本研究實證結果發現以大安區為房價漣漪中心之漣漪效應現象是依地理位 置影響，本研究亦將相關區域相關特徵加入圖層進行分析，如：捷運路線、工廠 設廠數及商圈數量，然上述因素並不顯著影響房價漣漪效應之現象，仍有其他未 被發現之因素，後續研究可進一步以交通可及性或地域性特徵進行背後成因之探 討。
拓展研究範圍
本研究僅針對臺灣北部區域之四縣市以及以大安區為中心之外圍行政區進
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行分析，而臺灣各區域間之經濟條件與次市場有所不同，未來可針對其他區域、
不同層級如：不同次市場或找尋各縣市之房價中心以進行房價衝擊反應與因果關 係檢定，更豐富臺灣房價漣漪效應之研究。
定期更新區域間之房價漣漪效應研究
過往政府在進行相關政策、空間規劃的擬定與地方建設的評估時，鮮有評估 該政策對於整體周遭區域房價之衝擊，而不動產市場瞬息萬變，為有利後續政府 規劃政策，任何一項區域政策、規劃手段或地方建設，皆有可能對當地與鄰近區 域的房價產生影響，若能定期進行房價漣漪效應傳遞與領先程度評估，將有助於 政府對於後續可能產生之房價反應做出相對應之政策。
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網頁參考文獻
財團法人國家政策研究基金會，取用日期：2018 年 11 月 13 日 https://www.npf.org.tw/
內政部主計處，取用日期：2018 年 11 月 15 日 https://www.moi.gov.tw/stat/index.aspx 內政部戶政司，2018 年 11 月 15 日
https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal
內政部不動產資訊平台，取用日期：2018 年 11 月 16 日 http://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/Default.aspx
國政研究報告，取用日期：2018 年 11 月 29 日 https://www.npf.org.tw/2/1843
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附錄一
大安區與信義區 大安區與松山區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 2.797892 2.993731 1 1.029593 1.227028 2 -1.893014 -1.566616 2 -2.050585 -1.721527
3 -2.491392* -2.034434*
3 -2.474674 -2.013992*4 -2.470220 -1.882703
4 -2.497873*
-1.905568 5 -2.363898 -1.645822 5 -2.450447 -1.726518 6 -2.321655 -1.473020 6 -2.346024 -1.490471大安區與中山區 大安區與中正區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 2.363811 2.559650 1 2.599698 2.795537 2 -2.355335 -2.028937 2 -0.220283 0.106116 3 -3.314516 -2.857559*
3 -0.663392* -0.206434*
4 -3.368105*
-2.780588 4 -0.640448 -0.0529315 -3.297939 -2.579863 5 -0.535061 0.183015 6 -3.238768 -2.390133 6 -0.480334 0.368301
大安區與文山區 大安區與南港區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.538289 1.734128 1 0.682322 0.879757 2 -2.128600 -1.802201 2 -2.276523 -1.947465
3 -3.122530* -2.665572* 3 -2.660682* -2.200000*
4 -3.058122 -2.470605 4 -2.582069 -1.989764 5 -3.001525 -2.283449 5 -2.477802 -1.753873 6 -2.915035 -2.066400 6 -2.372650 -1.517098
註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
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大安區與內湖區 大安區與大同區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.230173 1.426012 1 2.504264 2.700102 2 -3.074074 -2.747676 2 -0.791957 -0.465559 3 -3.713888 -3.256930*
3 -1.839712* -1.382754*
4 -3.697961 -3.110444 4 -1.755234 -1.167717
5 -3.739930*
-3.021854 5 -1.761599 -1.0435236 -3.656795 -2.808159 6 -1.675893 -0.827258
大安區與萬華區 大安區與永和區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.809526 2.006962 1 0.639617 0.837052 2 -1.237676 -0.908618 2 -2.341741 -2.012682 3 -1.524839 -1.064157* 3 -2.729257 -2.268575*
4 -1.596414*
-1.0041094 -2.800620*
-2.208314 5 -1.494704 -0.770775 5 -2.756440 -2.032511 6 -1.426594 -0.571041 6 -2.687035 -1.831483大安區與汐止區 大安區與士林區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.873940 2.069779 1 2.360952 2.556791 2 -2.691597 -2.365199 2 -0.747752 -0.421354
3 -3.978402* -3.521445*
3 -1.168712 -0.711754 4 -3.916431 -3.3289144 -1.331305* -0.743788*
5 -3.939839 -3.221763 5 -1.311062 -0.592986 6 -3.920272 -3.071637 6 -1.308226 -0.459590
大安區與三重區 大安區與板橋區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 0.615579 0.811418 1 1.239798 1.435637 2 -3.012754 -2.686356 2 -2.305123 -1.978725
3 -3.996463* -3.539505*
3 -3.576820 -3.119863*4 -3.953247 -3.365730
4 -3.656077*
-3.068561 5 -3.929596 -3.211520 5 -3.629505 -2.911429 6 -3.860719 -3.012084 6 -3.588017 -2.739382註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
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大安區與中和區 大安區與新店區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.087378 1.283217 1 -0.218568 -0.021133 2 -2.921356 -2.594958 2 -2.867240 -2.538181 3 -3.898574 -3.441616*
3 -3.535035* -3.074353*
4 -3.919408*
-3.331891 4 -3.499022 -2.9067175 -3.888696 -3.170620 5 -3.429864 -2.705935 6 -3.801192 -2.952557 6 -3.402203 -2.546651
大安區與北投區 大安區與蘆洲區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.496086 1.693521 1 0.144485 0.340324 2 -0.702265 -0.373207 2 -2.696864 -2.370466
3 -1.143402* -0.682720*
3 -3.728572 -3.271614 4 -1.056693 -0.4643884 -3.955229* -3.367712*
5 -1.052879 -0.328951 5 -3.924787 -3.206711 6 -0.978155 -0.122602 6 -3.841513 -2.992878
大安區與新莊區 大安區與土城區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.451134 1.646973 1 1.391056 1.586894 2 -0.798929 -0.472531 2 -2.499888 -2.173490 3 -1.262491 -0.805534*
3 -3.325944* -2.868987*
4 -1.343453 -0.755936 4 -3.284458 -2.696942 5 -1.264370 -0.546294 5 -3.285631 -2.567555
6
-1.351819*
-0.503183 6 -3.173243 -2.324608大安區與基隆市
落後期 AIC SBC 1 1.028058 1.223897 2 -1.589648 -1.263250 3 -2.109118 -1.652161*
4 -2.155533*
-1.568016 5 -2.073759 -1.355683 6 -1.999373 -1.150738註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
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附錄二
大安區與信義區 大安區與松山區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 2.409961 2.615813 1 0.879280 1.086907 2 -1.865518 -1.522432 2 -2.002334 -1.656289 3 -2.410377 -1.930056* 3 -2.417209 -1.932746*
4 -2.423870 -1.806315
4 -2.467915*
-1.845034 5 -2.312134 -1.557345 5 -2.398524 -1.637225 6 -2.346792 -1.454767 6 -2.308239 -1.408522 7 -2.368731 -1.339473 7 -2.228661 -1.190527 8 -2.393321 -1.226828 8 -2.222469 -1.045916 9 -2.287964 -0.984236 9 -2.162530 -0.84756010 -2.444485*
-1.003523 10 -2.322290 -0.868901 11 -2.399285 -0.821089 11 -2.257196 -0.665389 12 -2.428522 -0.713092 12 -2.247757 -0.517533大安區與中山區 大安區與中正區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 2.314019 2.519871 1 2.290858 2.496710 2 -2.454429 -2.111343 2 -0.143788 0.199298 3 -3.395284 -2.914963*
3 -0.567336* -0.087015*
4 -3.491144 -2.873589 4 -0.537296 0.080259 5 -3.373523 -2.618733 5 -0.418706 0.336084 6 -3.368372 -2.476348 6 -0.388495 0.503529 7 -3.271359 -2.242101 7 -0.290555 0.738703 8 -3.344197 -2.177704 8 -0.307682 0.858811 9 -3.391058 -2.087331 9 -0.199306 1.104422 10 -3.470859 -2.029897 10 -0.200328 1.240634 11 -3.466075 -1.887878 11 -0.116404 1.461792
12 -3.520936*
-1.805505 12 -0.059581 1.655850註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
大安區與文山區 大安區與南港區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.568049 1.773901 1 0.465297 0.672923 2 -2.153899 -1.810813 2 -2.199593 -1.853548
3 -3.136913* -2.656592* 3 -2.601663* -2.117200*
4 -3.080504 -2.462949 4 -2.512903 -1.890022 5 -3.042330 -2.287540 5 -2.386811 -1.625512 6 -2.943808 -2.051784 6 -2.327803 -1.428086 7 -2.840770 -1.811512 7 -2.321209 -1.283074 8 -2.752285 -1.585792 8 -2.368218 -1.191665 9 -2.789858 -1.486131 9 -2.277205 -0.962234 10 -2.701502 -1.260540 10 -2.262532 -0.809144 11 -2.606766 -1.028570 11 -2.282006 -0.690199 12 -2.552287 -0.836856 12 -2.352995 -0.622770
大安區與內湖區 大安區與大同區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.198613 1.404464 1 2.451956 2.657807 2 -3.158845 -2.815759 2 -0.796514 -0.453427 3 -3.715660 -3.235339* 3 -1.911415 -1.431094*
4 -3.713161 -3.095606 4 -1.856176 -1.238621
5 -3.720813*
-2.966024 5 -1.896110 -1.1413206 -3.689561 -2.797537 6 -1.896438 -1.004414 7 -3.643634 -2.614375 7 -1.865162 -0.835903 8 -3.531168 -2.364675 8 -1.766626 -0.600133 9 -3.464740 -2.161012 9 -1.694484 -0.390756 10 -3.472154 -2.031192 10 -1.886041 -0.445079 11 -3.528494 -1.950297 11 -1.866516 -0.288320 12 -3.422014 -1.706583
12 -2.089584*
-0.374153註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
大安區與萬華區 大安區與永和區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.399230 1.606857 1 0.346754 0.554381 2 -1.193469 -0.847424 2 -2.290403 -1.944358 3 -1.504685 -1.020222* 3 -2.690891 -2.206428*
4 -1.585877*
-0.9629964 -2.730829*
-2.107948 5 -1.477478 -0.716179 5 -2.718162 -1.956863 6 -1.441773 -0.542056 6 -2.705055 -1.805338 7 -1.548290 -0.510155 7 -2.649690 -1.611556 8 -1.460722 -0.284169 8 -2.590229 -1.413676 9 -1.374562 -0.059592 9 -2.665871 -1.350900 10 -1.506217 -0.052828 10 -2.632573 -1.179184 11 -1.397474 0.194333 11 -2.670155 -1.078349 12 -1.349774 0.380450 12 -2.691392 -0.961168大安區與汐止區 大安區與士林區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.966607 2.172458 1 1.806153 2.012005 2 -2.713339 -2.370253 2 -0.701224 -0.358138 3 -4.083074 -3.602754* 3 -1.108211 -0.627891
4 -4.087406*
-3.4698514 -1.316949* -0.699394*
5 -4.072629 -3.317839 5 -1.254000 -0.499210 6 -4.072793 -3.180769 6 -1.234493 -0.342469 7 -4.030833 -3.001574 7 -1.191662 -0.162403 8 -3.955676 -2.789183 8 -1.170021 -0.003528 9 -3.834080 -2.530352 9 -1.120167 0.183560 10 -3.764893 -2.323931 10 -1.054718 0.386244 11 -3.685194 -2.106997 11 -0.978277 0.599919 12 -3.694369 -1.978938 12 -0.886802 0.828629
註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
大安區與三重區 大安區與板橋區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 0.594005 0.799856 1 1.349094 1.554945 2 -3.030752 -2.687666 2 -2.321020 -1.977934
3 -4.008628* -3.528308*
3 -3.678679 -3.198359*4 -3.967178 -3.349623 4 -3.770658 -3.153103 5 -3.908071 -3.153281 5 -3.727609 -2.972819 6 -3.915116 -3.023092 6 -3.702362 -2.810338 7 -3.894178 -2.864919 7 -3.665827 -2.636569 8 -3.848816 -2.682323 8 -3.679015 -2.512522 9 -3.780708 -2.476980 9 -3.589025 -2.285297 10 -3.693131 -2.252169
10 -3.777870*
-2.336908 11 -3.782510 -2.204313 11 -3.703136 -2.124939 12 -3.702432 -1.987002 12 -3.588293 -1.872862大安區與中和區 大安區與新店區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.098354 1.304206 1 -0.319353 -0.111726 2 -2.924165 -2.581079 2 -2.772833 -2.426788
3 -3.901021* -3.420701* 3 -3.487235* -3.002772*
4 -3.890344 -3.272789 4 -3.458882 -2.836001 5 -3.864191 -3.109401 5 -3.414897 -2.653599 6 -3.801979 -2.909955 6 -3.420189 -2.520473 7 -3.726653 -2.697394 7 -3.362126 -2.323992 8 -3.761136 -2.594643 8 -3.336604 -2.160052 9 -3.655645 -2.351917 9 -3.229116 -1.914145 10 -3.697992 -2.257030 10 -3.130027 -1.676638 11 -3.751113 -2.172917 11 -3.092022 -1.500216 12 -3.655118 -1.939687 12 -3.038667 -1.308442
註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
大安區與北投區 大安區與蘆洲區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.331192 1.538819 1 0.139906 0.345758 2 -0.577383 -0.231338 2 -2.751401 -2.408315
3 -1.065216* -0.580753*
3 -3.721090 -3.240769 4 -0.953829 -0.3309484 -3.861651* -3.244096*
5 -0.943252 -0.181953 5 -3.795029 -3.040240 6 -0.887679 0.012037 6 -3.738841 -2.846816 7 -0.816894 0.221240 7 -3.737507 -2.708249 8 -0.796332 0.380220 8 -3.670308 -2.503815 9 -0.945248 0.369722 9 -3.609990 -2.306263 10 -0.866905 0.586483 10 -3.566830 -2.125868 11 -0.842479 0.749328 11 -3.596306 -2.018110 12 -0.811093 0.919131 12 -3.514688 -1.799257
大安區與新莊區 大安區與土城區
落後期 AIC SBC 落後期 AIC SBC
1 1.519567 1.725418 1 1.474721 1.680572 2 -0.672643 -0.329557 2 -2.646787 -2.303701 3 -1.114195 -0.633874*
3 -3.511457* -3.031136*
4 -1.237335 -0.619779 4 -3.485141 -2.867586 5 -1.130374 -0.375584 5 -3.470703 -2.715914 6 -1.282641 -0.390617 6 -3.369230 -2.477206 7 -1.290727 -0.261468 7 -3.341894 -2.312635
8 -1.300068*
-0.133575 8 -3.328759 -2.1622669 -1.198358 0.105370 9 -3.284361 -1.980633 10 -1.106774 0.334188 10 -3.307830 -1.866868 11 -0.997979 0.580218 11 -3.265077 -1.686881 12 -0.869812 0.845619 12 -3.273108 -1.557677
註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
大安區與基隆市
落後期 AIC SBC 1 1.084490 1.290342 2 -1.467769 -1.124683 3 -2.016667 -1.536347*
4 -2.086128*
-1.468573 5 -1.990502 -1.235713 6 -1.905561 -1.013537 7 -1.806181 -0.776922 8 -1.767399 -0.600906 9 -1.762835 -0.459108 10 -1.702081 -0.261119 11 -1.662923 -0.084727 12 -1.568731 0.146700註：*表示為該準則下之最小值。