第五章 、 實證結果分析
第二節 、 未來研究建議
本研究利用橫斷面資料 (cross-sectional data),探討公共設施面積比例、百貨公司 數量、商業區面積比例與人口密度對收益資本化率之影響,因此無法針對於不動產總 體經濟變數之時間變化因素做有效的掌握。在未來的研究中,尋找適當的收益資本化 率的時間數列,並建立一個能同時掌握住宅屬性的橫向資料特性,以及掌握收益資本 化率與總體經濟環境變化的時間因素。同時,再依據行政區域與建物特性劃分次市場 樣本分別建立估計模型,來進一步縮小預測誤差,是未來進行的研究方向。
本研究係將租金除以房價所得之毛收益資本化率,未來研究者可依不動產估價 技術規則之相關費用比例,如不動產估價技術規則第36 條規定將閒置期間、總費用 等項目,由總收入扣除後之餘額即為有效總收入來衡量。至於勘估標的總費用之推 算,應根據相同或相似不動產所支出之費用資料或會計報表所載資料加以推算,其 項目包括地價稅或地租、房屋稅、保險費、管理費及維修費等(不動產估價技術規 則第38 條),中華民國不動產估價師公會全國聯合會亦有發佈「第5號公報-不動產 估價技術公報-收益法之直接資本化法」,內容載明各項費用之比例;或其他方法求 得實際相關費用來扣減,即可求得淨收益資本化率,如國際評價人員協會 (The International Association of Assessing Officers, IAAO)早於1990 年即有公佈是類參數 (Woolery, 1990 : 219),對美國不同財產類型訂有費用率表(如附錄),以提高收益資本 化率精準性。
收益資本化率在不同地理空間與住宅類型下並不相同,其亦可能會受到當地民情 習慣與文化而有所差異,因此對於不同區域,例如北部與南部地區其收益資本化率之 異同,後續可以再加以討論。而建立不同地理空間與不同住宅類型之收益資本化率,
提供消費者購買不動產的參考,也是值得再進一步研究的課題。
由於不動產所注重的特徵,會因時因地因類型而不同,未來亦可針對不同住宅類 型─大樓、公寓與套房之收益資本化率為依變數,依其住宅類型所注重之特徵為自變 數,加以探討,以縮小次市場,增加收益資本化率之準確度。
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附錄:美國不同財產類型費用率表
財產類型(type of property) 比例(%) 購物中心(Shopping center) 20-30
辦公空間(Office space) 25-35
高級辦公大樓(High-rise buildings) 25-35 零售商店(Retail stores) 20-30 公寓大樓(Apartments, high-rise) 30-40 庭院公寓(Apartments, garden) 25-40
倉庫(Warehouse) 15-25
資料來源:Wooler(1990:219)