第五章 結論與建議
5.2 未來研究方向與建議
本研究之理論模型，係修正一般傳統經常帳現值估計模型，考量貨幣變動的 影響，以六大工業化國家含貨幣效果的經常帳現值估計模型進行分析，加強了貨 幣與經常帳之間的關聯性。亦即利用與經濟活動有密切關係的訊息，來預測美 國、英國、法國、德國、日本及加拿大等國經常帳的態動走勢。此種關聯經由 Granger 因果關係檢定之後，確實發現在非線性模型下，各國的經常帳餘額顯著 地受到貨幣存量變動之影響。因此，政府在制定貨幣政策時，應該更為謹慎。
但是，在預測精確性檢定的結果上，我們卻發現，法國的資料有大部份的檢 定皆無法判別出線性或非線性 VAR 模型何者預測能力較佳。因此，本研究建議，
可再修正傳統經常帳現值估計模型，加入諸如利率、匯率等等重要且會影響經常 帳餘額變動的解釋變數，進一步探討這些因素是否能增加模型的解釋能力，以提 高非線性 VAR 模型的預測力。
最後，由於本文研究的對象主要是針對已開發國家，因此，我們建議在後續 研究中亦可將開發中國家的資料納入，或者仿照 Ghosh and Ostry (1995) 的作 法，將國家以分區的方式進行分析，探討使用非線性 VAR 模型來預測開發中國 家的經常帳餘額，是否也能得到較佳的預測能力。
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附錄 A
在 no-Ponzi game 及截斷條件(terminal condition) 成立下由於
1 0
上式中，等號左邊代表終身消費的折現值 (present-value of lifetime consumption, PVLC)，等號右邊代表終身所擁有資源的折現值 (present-value of lifetime resources, PVLR)。
附錄 B
利用 Bellman’s equation，價值函數為 (value function)：
)
首先，我們解B1為
最後我們將 (B.5)、(B.10) 及 (B.13) 式代入 (B.7) 後，即可求得 (3.9) 式為
[
t i t i]
i
t i
t
Q M
E r
CAm
+ +∞
=
Δ
−
⎟ Δ
⎠
⎜ ⎞
⎝
⎛
− +
=
∑ η
1
*
1 1
其中，Δ
Q
t+i =Q
t+i −Q
t+i−1，ΔM
t+i =M
t+i −M
t+i−1，) 1 ( 1 1
+
r
− −
=