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立 政 治 大 學
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N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
第六章 結論
本研究從結合模擬的回顧分析方向，使用中國發改委價格監測中心 2009 年 1 月至 2011 年 5 月，36 個大中城市主要 295 個車款平均市場成交 價格資料，控制汽車特徵及時間趨勢後，衡量 2009 年 11 月中國長安、
哈飛、昌河汽車結合行為對價格的影響效果。本研究以實際價格資料來分 析的結果，發現價格變動情況與結合模擬預測結果並非完全相同，首先，
結合模擬分析是採用靜態模型去估計，未考量到市場結構改變的問題以及 事業結合後會影響創新和產品多樣性。另外，結合發生後，可能產生成本 協同（Cost Synergy）效應，企業在經營上產生綜效，而使其邊際成本下降 的很劇烈，以至於最後並未觀察到價格上漲的現象。最後，結合方結合後，
為了要發展與擴張新市場，就原本生產車款中，可能會對產品進行重新定 位（Reposition），主力生產在部分車款，有些車款則可能會被淘汰，而這 不斷持續的過程，並未考慮在模型裡進行控制，以至於最後得到的結果與 原本預期有些出入。
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