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第五章 結論與建議
本研究探討審計品質與經理人能力對於分析師盈餘預測行為之影響及 其相對有用性，以美國 1996 年至 2011 年之公開發行公司為樣本，研究結 果顯示，審計品質與經理人能力確實會對分析師盈餘預測行為產生影響。
審計品質良好或經理人能力佳之公司，分析師預測準確度較高，離散度較 低。由此可知，公司不論是在審計品質良好或在有能力的經理人領導之下，
提升了財務報表品質，分析師將傾向依賴財務報表資訊進行預測，故其預 測之誤差下降，且一致性上升。
由於企業之經營權與所有權分離，管理當局所擁有的資訊往往較投資 大眾多，為消弭此一資訊不對稱之現象，公司必須定期揭露財務報表及營 運狀況等相關資訊予外部人士，而專業之財務分析師便成為投資人與企業 之間傳遞資訊之角色，其專業意見與分析報告，可作為資本市場進行投資 決策的依據。分析師使用得資訊來源主要可分為公開資訊及私有資訊，當 公開資訊之數量與品質提升時，分析師將減少對於私有資訊之依賴，進而 降低了分析師盈餘預測之不確定性，提高了分析師預測之共識程度。因此，
當公司的財務報表經過四大會計師事務所或是產業專家查核，較佳的審計 品質將使財務報表確信程度上升；而能力較佳的經理人，對於總體經濟、
產業環境與公司所營事業較為知悉，故在衡量公司盈餘時具備較佳的判斷 及預測能力，公司之盈餘品質因此較佳。此兩項因素促使分析師更加仰賴 公司所發佈之財務報表資訊，使得盈餘預測準確度提升，離散度下降。
此外，本研究進一步將樣本區分為沙賓法案施行前後，檢驗沙賓法案 的施行是否將改變分析師的盈餘預測行為。本研究發現，在沙賓法案施行 後，審計品質及經理人能力與分析師盈餘預測準確度及離散度呈顯著相關。
上述結果說明，在沙賓法案的嚴格規範下，影響財務報表品質之因素如公
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司治理、內部控制或外部審計服務皆獲得明顯改善，故專業之分析師亦懂 得將這些因素納入考量。
最後，對於分析師盈餘預測行為而言，經理人能力之相對有用性高於 審計品質。其可能原因為，外部審計須等到財務報表產出後方能就其進行 檢驗，係屬事後監督之功用，審計品質僅是對於財務報表品質之加強；然 而，經理人能力將直接影響財務報表之產出過程，故經理人能力與審計品 質對於財務報表之影響有如事前預防與事後治療。
本研究亦有其限制。本研究之資料係來自 Compustat 與 I/B/E/S 資料庫，
由於年代問題，較早期之資料，多有遺漏，尤其非經四大會計師事務所查 核之公司，遺漏値較四大會計師事務所查核之公司多，加上四大事務所之 市占率高，導致樣本有比例不均之狀況，若能將早期資料補齊，提升非四 大會計師事務所於樣本中之比例，將能使研究更為完備。
本研究其中一個研究目的，係探討經理人能力與分析師盈餘預測行為 品質特性之關係，而本研究推論其中可能之影響過程為，因經理人能力良 好使公司的盈餘品質提升，分析師因此仰賴財務報表資訊提出預測，進而 使預測準確度提高且離散度降低。但另一可能之影響過程為，公司因經理 人能力良好而改善了資訊環境，進而使經理人自願揭露公司相關資訊，主 動提出管理當局預測。相較於財務報表提供歷史資訊，具未來性之相關預 測資訊可能對財務報表使用者而言更具攸關性(Baginski and Hassell 1990)。
Hassell and Jennings (1986)認為，管理當局預測之公佈可能透露公司相關內 部訊息，因而增加分析師預測準確度，本研究認為管理當局預測之公佈也 將使分析師仰賴此相關資訊進行盈餘預測，而減少了預測離散度，此一可 能之影響過程為本篇研究尚未探討的部分。此外，未來或許可利用分析師 盈餘預測之修正程度(revision)進行更詳細之探討，藉由分析師自身修正其 盈餘預測之情形，來知悉其決策過程之相關細節。
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