5 第五章 結論
5.4 研究限制與未來研究方向
產
本研究主要是針對連鎖超市量販店為主的資料庫，然而，不同的產業會有不
2、未考量到其它顧客潛在價值的因素
由於資料庫上無提供其它潛力的因素，例如：顧客滿意度、推薦行為、品牌 態度等，因此無法完整的考量所有顧客潛在因素。
3、顧客資料庫僅有兩年的資料
若有可長年限的資料考量，或許能更加 完瑧。
5.4.2 來研究方向
果
來應用顧客關係管
2、 它的顧客潛在發現的模式
obit mod
3、找出每位顧客的價格敏感 5.4.1 研究限制
本研究主要的限制歸納如下：
1、 業別的差異
同的現象，因此本研究結果會因不同產業而被限制。
本研究的資料庫僅參考兩年資料，倘
未
未來可行的研究方向，本研究歸納如下：
1、可以以本研究所建立的模式為基礎，建立一套顧客關係管理系統
目前的顧客關係管理系統少有針對顧客獲利為基礎來分群，根據分群後結 理策略，甚至目前沒有一套系統考量顧客潛在價值，因此可以 以本研究所建立的模式為基礎來開發一套顧客關係管理系統。
比較以及採用其
顧客潛在價值分析模式尚有其它種，例如：迴歸分析、類神經網路、pr els等，因此可以使用其它的預測模式來發展出更完臻的結果。
度，建立出第三個構面
由於價格敏感度在顧客潛在價值中亦是重要的變數，是否是黃金顧客群的價 感度會很低，而危險游離顧客群的價格敏感度會很高，抑或是黃
格敏 金客群中，
的 幫助
由於本研究主要是探討模式的可行性，驗證結果是值得開發的，因此未來研
究可以針對本研究的模式 算、視覺呈現的即時運作系
統，以利管理者得到最新以及最快的資訊。
5、針
如： 行為做深入分析，應是另
為，
析以及資料探勘技術整合的概念，提出流
構出完 整的
有部份的價格敏感度高，這些問題的釐清對於顧客關係管理上的應用會有正面
。
4、建立自動化更新的分析模式
來提供自動更新、轉換、計
對其它集群，來找出其潛在顧客行為
本研究僅針對黃金顧客群的潛在行為做深入探討，倘若亦針對其它族群，例 值得開發顧客群、須挽回顧客群、游離顧客群等的
一個有趣的研究議題，尤其是值得開發顧客群，若能夠有效的得知此族群的行 並且加以提供行銷方案，或許可以比較行銷方案執行前以及執行後的有效 性，對於此價值發現的效益更能夠去衡量出來。
本研究主要是提出顧客終身價值分
程及架構，利用實證來加以驗証，未來此方面仍須學者來多加研究，以建 顧客價值發現模式，以提昇顧客關係管理上的效益及效果。
參考文獻
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中文部份
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1 各集群之 析表
Cl
附件 OLAP 分
Gender*Age*Cluster 多維度分析
CLV uster
Age Gender 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 總計
F 4582.61 285 .15 4 364 .72 2122.109 29 .859 3691.20 631.03 17830.66 15-19
M 3972.78 343 .78 8 380 .651 97 .013 75 .275 3024.28 16 4.216 17629.97 15-19 合計 8555.39 6292.93 7451.36 3095.11 1055.13 6715.47 2295.24 35460.62 F 16585.23 10322.55 19256.70 6539.98 3461.23 19349.33 8 35 .14 16888.39 93256.54 20-29
M 17721.84 10263.79 18738.52 10137.09 6377.50 17796.22 1510.25 16159.29 98704.49 20-29 合計 34307.07 20586.33 37995.21 16677.06 9838.73 37145.55 2363.39 33047.68 191961.04
F 18332.61 11607.32 17526.88 10457.05 4355.68 23950.61 712.26 1870.99 18832.93 107646.32 30-39
166 6 4 1914 4
M 69.91 12138.39 22291.68 6080.76 7191.92 17227.89 129 .5 .22 134 1.86 98253.16 30-39 合計 35002.52 23745.71 39818.56 16537.80 1154 59 41178.50 20087. .80 3785.21 32274.79 205899.49
F 18381.95 10689.97 18641.48 8093.05 6401 9 21752.30.0 1307.27 24750.31 110017.44 40-49
M 18594.35 10740.19 16805.12 7259.40 6240.93 24308.60 1440.04 10103.40 95492.03 40-49 合計 36976.31 21430.16 35446.60 15352.45 12642.03 46060.90 1440.04 1307.27 34853.71 205509.47
F 18434.02 8393.31 16559.49 10306.48 5488.41 24343.09 62 .696 1193.73 12924.60 98269.82 50-59
M 16043.73 13612.28 20306.73 7335.77 7341.15 17570.08 3327.10 1840.74 15923.36 103300.95 50-59 合計 34477.75 22005.59 36866.21 17642.25 12829.57 41913.17 3953.79 3034.48 28847.96 201570.77 F 17253.28 11723.34 17107.41 12773.58 4544.46 18064.46 657.10 2735.04 16548.05 101406.70 60-69
M 17194.19 11408.93 17386.91 10467.02 6291.87 22178.82 4166.27 7866.64 96960.64 60-69 合計 34447.46 23132.27 34494.32 23240.60 0836.33 40243.28 4823.37 2735.04 24414.69 198367.351
F 18687.29 11111.72 16353.42 9864.63 3963.80 19962.68 639.34 1305.43 9874.75 91763.06 70-79
M 16296.66 12153.29 19222.22 8396.29 6158.78 22747.71 1256.34 1521.37 17641.28 105393.93 70-79 合計 34983.95 23265.02 35575.64 18260.92 0122.57 42710.39 1895.68 2826.80 27516.03 197157.001 F 12795.49 8181.34 13281.34 8682.88 2438.55 16014.30 2032.09 12378.42 75804.40 80-89
M 11632.58 8193.73 14569.26 7036.63 6641.85 16104.46 602.37 593.73 8812.53 74187.15 80-89 合計 24428.07 16375.07 27850.59 15719.51 9080.40 32118.76 602.37 2625.81 21190.95 149991.54 總計 243179 156833 255498 126526 77952 288086 14724 18678 204441 1385917
年
計 * 587.36 33946.30 57589.85 2 875.37 16216.30 67293.84 4 9 88.02 37 38.42 3 1060.25
N 2126.60 1063.63 2115.52 1461.42 1144.79 2164.14 607.52 10683.63
$110K -
$130K Y 10 60.04 4 5846.91 10409.66 3231.87 3 79.83 9479.63 16 302.1 2577.2 58 6 074.62 2062.01 5
$110 $13
合計 * K - 0K 1 586.64 6910.54 12525.18 693.30 4824.62 11643.77 1 02.18 2577.26 5682.14 2745.63 2 4 3 6 N 2364.95 1545.44 1317.49 158.30 494.37 2316.19 52.56 1254.70 5021.15 6225.16 1 7 1
$130K - N 33807.90 20164.29 38568.92 1 002.22 12257.29 41982.16 55.68 2789.28 32781.09 2 0108.84 7 7 0
$30K -
$50K Y 4 64.67 29 71.29 4 00.70 236 2 71 2262.91 13887.82 48792.93 1458.5 4531.0 42347.53 254 1 3317.41
$30 $50
計 * K - K 合 4 94 5 92 1 214.2 7320.3 75 5
77 72.57 4 35.58 8 669.63 3 65.13 26 45.11 90775.10 2 3 0 128.62 4 3426.26 N 1 437.17 13026.70 18641.92 129.03 5671.68 21678.74 44.16 1198.94 12851.17 1 2379.52 9 9 7 0
$50K
$70K Y -
26207.42 17475.03 24322.67 1 861.08 6479.86 30172.64 1 06.83 758.93 14958.25 1 3542.70 1 3 3
$50K - $70
$90K Y 143.30 8764.12 15332.49 569.59 5179.48 22304.19 1 91.04 730.66 20215.81 8530.68
$ K 合
計 * 70K - $90 28
334.19 17405.22 29060.03 16520.11 8347.73 36137.78 1917.73 2783.41 29219.25 169725.43 N 2157.35 2137.40 1970.51 1472.68 1429.42 1720.06 2226.78 13114.20
$90K -
$110K Y 8660.04 4790.65 7502.03 5835.28 1674.16 11445.15 639.34 596.45 6206.83 47349.93
$90K - $110K
合計 * 10817.39 6928.05 9472.54 7307.96 3103.58 13165.21 639.34 596.45 8433.61 60464.13 總計 * 243178.52 156833.07 255498.50 126525.70 77952.35 288086.03 14724.05 18678.00 204441.05 1385917.27
教
Current Cluster
育程度*婚姻狀態*集群
Ed Marital
Status 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 總計
ucation
M 30294.90 21607.34 32919.19 16574.21 9797.60 39597.96 1277.29 1 04.43 3 25976.88 793491 .8 B
Degree S 3 21 30 1 09 6 384 5 4
achelors
1806.46 382.96 3 52.14 14 49.12 9 0.79 35 41.07 1 .5 4717.78 26044.0 177268.9 Bachelors Degree 合計 * 62101.36 990.30 42 65971.33 30723.33 18888.39 75239.03 2661 4 .8 6022.21 52020.9 356618.7 2
M 6511.90 24.97 68.11 248 61 713.2 2438.1 4856.8 6 39 752.56 6386.69 6 34652.0 Gra
Degree S 7 3 649 517 195.7 76 1277.71 6209.35 9
duate
853.23 269.27 2.09 7.68 2 3 75.22 40150.2
Graduate Degree 合計 * 14365.14 094.24 1 660.19 7 90.96 4 3.90 12 31.61 8 2 8 63 5 752.56 1277.71 12596.0 4 74802.35 M 33531.78 20226.46 3 269.36 18 79.53 14546.31 41553.36 1383.50 2702.33 29872.33 200164.98 0 High School
Degree S 35819.08 424.46 3 262.33 15 89.36 14 79.59 39 08.59 3386.91 2058.86 34067.8 206196.923 8 0 3 7 1
H g
* igh School De ree 合計 69350.87 650.92 7 531.69 33 68.89 28925.90 81 61.95 443 6 1 2 770 1 4761.19.4 63940.1 406361.94
M 11492.76 619.63 1 912.33 9 51.03 1 38.99 13 81.80 7 1 7 8 5 65 .232 8055.8 64904.646 Partial
College S 11611.88 8589.94 1 834.47 6 18.11 923.77 13092.36 1 2 1898.77 9124.20 63293.49 Partial College 合計 * 23104.64 16209.57 2 746.80 15 69.14 2762.76 26674.16 3 9 2551.00 17180.06 128198.1 M 36638.84 352.62 3 105.45 18 75.39 10 24.74 44 44.73 323 8 1 2 4 288 4 .2 1338.75 32002.2 207570.92 Par
School S 3 8 5
tial High
7617.69 22535.42 3 483.04 20 98.00 12516.67 47934.54 3250.99 2727.14 26701.67 212365.1 Partial High Schoo
* l 合計 74256.53 45888.03 7 588.49 38 73.38 22741.41 92379.27 6539.23 4065.90 58703.89 419936.16 7 總計 * 243178.5 156833.0 2 5498.5 12 525.7 7795 6 52.35 288086.0 14724.05 18678.00 204441.0 1385917
擁有 表
Current Cluster
小孩數*國家*集群
Total
Children Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 總計
Canada 1133.82 21 .87 92 3184.97 6511.67
Mexico 645.29 1701.38 5338.45 1160.32 9 8.0619 7188.37 25231.87 0
0.02
USA 2186 13509.00 15092.23 10005.59 8624.47 12 60.025 1898.03 9034.31 92583.66 0 合計 * 23639.13 17403.25 23615.65 10005.59 9784.79 21 58.077 1898.03 16222.68 124327.20
Canada 1417.46 4744.08 6397.62 12559.16
Mexico 563.19 4335.75 11900.04 842.44 1523.74 21 78.524 10962.26 51605.94 1
685
USA 4 7.85 24442.22 25390.76 21627.55 14591.27 34 99.66 1 35.38 1841.59 19473.11 190959.387 9 1 合計 * 48838.50 33522.05 43688.42 22469.99 16115.01 56278.18 1935.38 1841.59 30435.37 255124.48
Canada 1984.31 4604.43 7783.42 14372.17
Mexico 466.41 3777.96 11158.33 686.70 2002.97 22349.61 12491.71 52933.69 2
USA 42994.34 24895.45 32295.44 26056.90 16778.27 37634.39 2079.62 1254.06 23036.53 207025.00 2 合計 * 45445.07 33277.85 51237.19 26743.59 18781.24 59984.00 2079.62 1254.06 35528.24 274330.86
Canada 2290.71 3846.96 8440.22 250.81 14828.69
Mexico 911.08 4250.38 11419.74 1673.04 25146.72 637.32 13292.85 57331.13 3
USA 48157.93 21413.73 30220.19 26380.40 15705.74 35018.31 4714.95 5958.04 26868.10 214437.40 3 合計 * 51359.72 29511.07 50080.15 26380.40 17378.78 60415.84 4714.95 6595.36 40160.95 286597.22
Canada 1894.28 4370.97 8205.44 14470.69
Mexico 987.34 2754.26 13345.56 263.45 1409.88 25428.70 16383.79 60572.98 4
USA 44522.07 21938.96 35037.20 27460.44 10389.28 35175.53 3966.48 4085.19 35647.53 218222.69 4 合計 * 47403.70 29064.19 56588.19 27723.89 11799.16 60604.23 3966.48 4085.19 52031.32 293266.35
Canada 842.81 1656.12 5685.79 8184.72
Mexico 353.21 1874.87 5660.45 802.80 11891.49 712.26 10797.43 32092.51 5
USA 25296.40 10523.67 18942.65 13202.24 3290.57 17154.22 1315.36 3003.77 19265.06 111993.93 5 合計 * 26492.41 14054.66 30288.89 13202.24 4093.37 29045.71 2027.62 3003.77 30062.49 152271.16 總計 * 243178.52 156833.07 255498.50 126525.70 77952.35 288086.03 14724.05 18678.00 204441.05 1385917.27
職業*會員卡別*集群
Current Cluster
Occupation Member
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 總計
Bronze 3500.57 2221.59 3963.03 1036.94 242.27 2886.81 705.21 2638.37 17194.78 Golden 307.41 744.02 250.15 244.54 742.91 652.23 613.89 3555.14
Normal 80.28 71.27 174.57 326.12
Clerical
Silver 843.01 431.88 62.64 478.10 807.97 2623.60 Clerical 合計 * 4731.28 3468.75 4450.40 1759.58 242.27 4437.69 1357.43 3252.26 23699.65
Bronze 23129.15 15487.63 21256.72 12081.49 7957.79 29217.21 1441.24 3203.65 22029.68 135804.54 Golden 5462.60 3734.79 6838.61 3444.72 1242.29 6263.94 674.92 730.66 4321.32 32713.85 Normal 1795.29 1562.88 1712.36 2262.05 969.10 1144.95 1394.91 10841.53 Management
Silver 3191.62 2876.44 5359.41 1854.92 1701.28 4529.44 1919.68 21432.80 Management 合計 * 33578.66 23661.74 35167.10 19643.18 11870.46 41155.53 2116.16 3934.31 29665.59 200792.73
Bronze 28437.51 16059.82 27306.71 11310.00 10417.15 32468.68 1467.95 1267.16 20433.75 149168.73 Golden 4775.40 2964.62 5767.84 1897.90 2835.01 8347.92 1464.78 7275.39 35328.87 Normal 27087.42 16239.07 28369.94 14548.50 5153.85 24409.69 2583.36 592.58 14644.70 133629.10 Manual
Silver 3969.72 3539.94 4223.57 715.46 243.66 4868.27 2976.11 20536.72 Manual 合計 * 64270.06 38803.44 65668.06 28471.86 18649.67 70094.56 4051.31 3324.51 45329.95 338663.42
Bronze 54551.60 35663.28 54413.24 27331.86 18562.67 60871.49 2547.43 5899.53 45173.03 305014.14 Golden 10830.78 6912.48 11498.46 7475.84 2204.41 15377.85 1249.49 624.08 12911.05 69084.45 Normal 5037.79 3833.72 4812.86 2129.12 1823.83 6587.90 967.10 25192.31 Professional
Silver 10856.87 5965.62 10068.08 5064.00 2611.64 8306.62 695.88 661.21 8948.83 53178.74 Professional 合計 * 81277.04 52375.10 80792.65 42000.82 25202.55 91143.86 4492.80 7184.81 68000.01 452469.65
Bronze 25639.78 17382.84 31787.04 13889.79 9097.64 31783.81 1490.45 1281.49 29584.06 161936.89 Golden 4729.29 3082.10 6346.34 4613.10 1216.82 8136.90 7922.98 36047.53 Normal 25452.60 16095.28 25948.48 13325.68 11286.19 37677.67 2573.33 20686.20 153045.44 Skilled
Manual
Silver 3499.81 1963.81 5338.43 2821.70 386.75 3656.00 1595.45 19261.96 Skilled Manual 合計 * 59321.49 38524.04 69420.29 34650.27 21987.39 81254.39 4063.78 2876.94 58193.24 370291.82
總計 243179 156833 255498 126526 77952 288086 14724 18678 204441 1385917
媒體類別*集群
Store Sales Cluster
Media Type 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 總計 * Bulk Mail 1661.7 2150.9 837.8 280.7 515.9 186.03 57.64 1052 6742.6 Cash Register Handout 1479.3 2115.2 1465 1181.9 2358 345.7 463.98 2171.5 11580.86
Daily Paper 1529.9 2218.9 1734 1474.7 3033 360.25 399.13 3089.6 13839.54 Daily Paper, Radio 1046.5 1678.6 2796 1645.2 4341 101.76 215.99 1940.3 13764.66 Daily Paper, Radio, TV 2861.6 3291.2 2660 1111.4 2569 87.18 92.65 2982.2 15655.82 In-Store Coupon 757.93 601.81 1232 621.09 1340 72.69 198.96 2764.6 7589.06
No Media 102466.33 46683 65447 68404 38485 98158 7776.1 10016 68716 506152.5 Product Attachment 1783 2295.3 2629 1335.3 3457 48.28 189.56 791.1 12529.19 Radio 760.64 1057.9 601.3 246.11 354.2 85.18 45.94 103.97 3255.3 Street Handout 1157.6 2196.6 1058 383.9 1540 21.86 197.32 3033.2 9588.68
Sunday Paper 762.08 1279.7 1223 603.85 2278 105.59 424.98 1099.3 7776.4 Sunday Paper, Radio 738.77 1214.7 2110 1059.6 3101 131.59 280.63 2815 11452.1 Sunday Paper, Radio,
TV 415.2 444.04 609.7 195.89 726.1 211.18 34.2 2309.9 4946.11 TV 1571.6 2127.5 605.1 306.81 453.9 5064.9 總計 * 102466.33 63209 88119 87966 48931 124226.1 9533.4 12617 92869 629937.7