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day. One way that Taiwanese can express their opinions on the current issues of the day is through surveys. National Chengchi University in Taipei, Taiwan hosts the Taiwan‟s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS). “Taiwan‟s Election and Democratization Study
(abbreviated as TEDS) is a continual large-scale survey research project supported and funded by the Department of Humanities and Social Science (hereafter, DHSS) of the Ministry of Science and Technology.”65 This organization provides invaluable data in regards to how Taiwanese voters view issues and how that translates into voting practices. These four data sets will show how the 2012 election played about and how the voters that view China as an
opportunity vote KMT and those that view the Mainland as a threat vote DPP.
VII. TEDS Data National Identity
One of the first questions I researched on TEDS was that of national identity. In the TEDS 2012 survey on national identity, one of the first questions asked is “Do you consider yourself as Taiwanese, Chinese or both?”66
Values Categories n percentage
1 Taiwanese 1033 56.6%
2 both 669 36.6%
3 Chinese 73 4.0%
90 others 3 0.2%
95 refuse to answer 19 1.0%
98 don't know 29 1.6%
Frequency : 1826 100%
(Source: TEDS)
For my question corresponding with this one the three individuals who are pan-green said they are Taiwanese, one said both. Two individuals from pan-blue said both and two said Chinese. The two remaining independent voters said they are both Taiwanese and Chinese. These answers, along with the TEDS data, would go to prove that more and more Taiwanese view themselves as either Taiwanese or
65 Teds Website http://teds.nccu.edu.tw/intro/super_pages.php?ID=intro1 accessed June 2, 2015
66 TEDS Website, http://teds.nccu.edu.tw/teds_plan/list.php?g_isn=62&g_tid=2&g_cid=15 accessed June 3, 2015
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both Chinese and Taiwanese. This shows the growing distance from China and Chinese identity over time.
It proves a problem for Chinese leadership in claiming legitimacy over Taiwan based off of historical continuity. It also is an issue for Taiwanese political parties and politicians that cling to a Chinese only national identity. In future elections political parties that emphasize a purely Chinese identity run the risk of alienating voters, especially younger voters. This could have serious implications for the KMT and other pan-blue parties in future election cycles.
VIII. The 1992 Consensus
The second question deals with the 1992 Consensus. “Some people say that we should continue using the 1992 Consensus as the basis of Cross-Strait negotiations while other people say we should reject the 1992 Consensus. What do you agree with?”67
Values Categories n percentage
1 continue using the 1992 Consensus 794 43.5%
2 reject the 1992 Consensus 246 13.5%
3 there is no 1992 Consensus 340 18.6%
4 support both 19 1.0%
5 support neither 8 0.4%
95 refuse to answer 16 0.9%
96 it depends 18 1.0%
97 no opinion 67 3.7%
98 don't know 318 17.4%
Frequency : 1826 100%
(Source: TEDS)
67 TEDS http://teds.nccu.edu.tw/teds_plan/list.php?g_isn=62&g_tid=2&g_cid=15 accessed June 3, 2015
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The overall consensus on the 1992 Consensus seems to be that it is a good thing and should be continued to be used by Taiwan when it comes to China. However, there is still a sizeable
minority that either wants to reject the 1992 Consensus or simply denies the existence of the 1992 Consensus. The scope that the 1992 Consensus played in the 2012 election, namely many
Taiwanese voters being apprehensive about Tsai Ing-wen‟s position on the Consensus, shows how important it is. The data supports the train of thought that Taiwanese wanted to maintain the relationship with Mainland China that the 1992 Consensus had afforded them up to that point.
IX. ECFA
The third question I used has to deal with ECFA directly. “After signing the cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), do you think Taiwan‟s economy has gotten better, worse or is about the same?”68 As the data shows the majority believed that the economy stayed about the same when it came to ECFA. This is an interesting result as ECFA was promoted by the government and the KMT as being a way for Taiwan to continue economic expansion and avoid marginalization. However, the date seems to say that the voters felt that ECFA did not bring about this result.
Values Categories n percentage
1 get better 677 37.1%
2 get worse 215 11.8%
3 stay about the same 667 36.5%
95 refuse to answer 6 0.3%
96 it's hard to say 32 1.8%
97 no opinion 27 1.5%
98 don't know 202 11.1%
Frequency : 1826 100%
(Source: TEDS)
68 TEDS, http://teds.nccu.edu.tw/teds_plan/list.php?g_isn=63&g_tid=0&g_cid=9 accessed June 4, 2015
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Because there is sometimes a discrepancy when it comes to how people feel about the nation‟s overall economic performance versus their own personal economic situation, the next question asked related to how they felt personally about ECFA. “Thinking about your own economic situation, do you think it has gotten better or gotten worse as a result of ECFA, or stayed about the same?”69 Below is the TEDS data from 2012.
Values Categories n percentage
1 get better 109 6.0%
2 get worse 173 9.5%
3 stay about the same 1387 76.0%
95 refuse to answer 8 0.4%
96 it's hard to say 12 0.7%
97 no opinion 16 0.9%
98 don't know 121 6.6%
Frequency : 1826 100%
(Source: TEDS)
It is clear that in 2012 out of the people TEDS polled the majority believed that ECFA had neither harmed nor helped their personal economic situation. It was perhaps still too early to fully appreciate the effect ECFA would have on Taiwan‟s economy. What can be said for sure from the data is that the debate over ECFA was split down party lines. Those falling into the pan-blue camp viewed ECFA as an important step in not only maintaining cross Strait relations; but also for Taiwan to avoid being economically marginalized. The pan-green voters were naturally skeptic of any agreements that, in their view, would bring Taiwan and China closer together.