Chapter 2 Literature Review 2.1 Power Transition Theory
4. Satisfaction and dissatisfaction
2.3 China- Middle East Relations
2.3.5 From Non-intervention to Increasing Involvement
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penetrates local markets and floods them with cheap Chinese goods. This strategy resulted in a huge trade balance for China with non-energy suppliers Middle Eastern countries, such as Turkey.88
A unique characteristic of the Chinese economic policy, is that it does not only focus on trade, but also creates interdependency. China is doing so by investing great sums of money in infrastructure as well as accelerated exports, and not only in the energy sector. China's message is that it is not a temporary actor, it is here to stay. This policy is also applied to the Middle East, and thanks to this policy, energy suppliers to China such as Iran and Sudan became dependent on China not to a lesser extent than China is dependent on them.89
2.3.5 From Non-intervention to Increasing Involvement
In Embracing Interdependence: The Dynamics of China and the Middle East (2015), Chaoling Feng explains that after years in which energy and economic interests dominated the Chinese policy in the Middle East, the Chinese government realized the politics and economics cannot be completely separated. Moreover, China had to develop foreign policy tools to handle with complicated situations such as the Syrian civil war that incurred substantial losses to China.90 Moreover, as a country enjoying the Middle East benefits, it was expected to start bearing some responsibilities.
China's record of active involvement in the area in previous decades is not very impressive. China did not intervene in the War in Afghanistan, even though it entailed massive soviet presence in its backyard91 and even though it advocated a peaceful solution of the Iraqi invasion to Kuwait in 1990, it abstained on a UN resolution authorizing the US-led coalition to expel Iraq from Kuwait by force.92 More than ten years later in 2003, China opposed the US invasion to Iraq, but it was not as assertive as other UNSC members, such as France and Russia, and remained rather passive.93 Yet, China's record seemed to have changed. In Chinese Involvement in the Middle East: The Libyan and Syrian Crises (2013), Yoram Evron presents the relatively new
88Yitzhak Shichor, “China and the Middle East: Testimony before the U.S - China Economic and Security Review Commission”. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (2013): p.p. 1-2. Accessed June 29, 2015, http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/SHICHOR_testimony.pdf
89Ibid, p.p. 3-4.
90 Chaoling Feng "Embracing Interdependence: The Dynamics of China and the Middle East" (paper presented at the Brookings Doha Energy Forum, Doha, Qatar, March 25-26, 2015), p. 3.
91 Shichor, "China's Upsurge: Implications for the Middle East", p. 667.
92 Kumaraswaky, China and the Middle East: The Quest for Influence, p. 115.
93 Yetiv and Lu, "China, Global Energy, and the Middle East", p. 216.
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patterns of Chinese involvement in the area: how China evacuated its citizens from bombarded Libya in 2011and supported Bashar al-Assad's regime and blocked more than once UNSC sanctions resolutions upon him.94 Evron's assessment that these two cases indicate the new trend in China's Middle East policy proved right as China again sent military vessels to evacuate Chinese citizens from Yemen in 2015.95
In Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and Policy since the Cold War (2010) Robert G. Sutter lays out China's increasing involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the 1990s.96 This trend was later fortified by China's peace proposal for the Middle East from 201397 and Yiyi Chen from the Middle East Institute98 predicts that it is inevitable that China will become more involved in the Middle East peace process.99
In conclusion, the patterns of Chinese involvement in the Middle East has changed greatly in the last decades, especially in recent years, and it's still evolving. From a marginal actor that is not taken seriously, not by international major actors and not by the local players, China has become a power one cannot ignore. The Middle East is the largest source of energy resources, mostly oil, and accounts for about 60 percent of China's oil imports, a number that is likely to increase in the upcoming years. Moreover, China is the largest trade partner for most Middle Eastern countries, and is invested in huge infrastructure development projects, mostly in the energy sector. Recently, as part of China's more active foreign policy, it has taken a leading role, actively blocking sanctions on the Assad regime, as opposed to its much more subtle opposition to use force against Saddam Hussein and China's active military missions to far away
94 Yoram Evron, "China's Patterns of Involvement in the Middle East: Libya and Syria Crises as Case Studies", Strategic Assessment 16 (2013): p.p. 79-91.
95 Kevin Wang, "Yemen Evacuation a Strategic Step Forward for China", The Diplomat, April 10, 2015, accessed May 16th, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/yemen-evacuation-a-strategic-step-forward-for-china/.
96 Robert G, Sutter, Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and Policy since the Cold War, (Plymouth:
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2010), p.p. 303-307.
97 "Chinese President Makes Four-Point Proposal for Settlement of Palestinian Question", Xinhuanet, May 6, 2013, accessed May 16 2015,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-05/06/c_132363061.htm.
98 Yiyi Chen is the Director of the Institute for Hebrew and Jewish Studies at Peking University, and a member of the The Middle East Institute (MEI): a non-profit, non-partisan think tank and cultural center in Washington, D.C., founded. The MEI primary goal is to increase knowledge of the Middle East among the citizens of the United States and to promote a better understanding between the people of these two areas.
99Yiyi Chen, "China is Destined to Intervene in the Conflict between Israel and Palestine" Quartz, May 11, 2015, accessed May 16th, 2015, http://qz.com/401368/china-is-destined-to-intervene-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-palestine/#.
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countries such as Libya and Yemen. Given all that, it is highly possible that China's role in the Middle East will become more and more dominant, and might even challenge the current state of affairs of American preponderance in the area.
In this chapter I laid out the three legs of my study: power transition theory, China's foreign policy and China's relations with the Middle East. After reviewing ad analyzing each leg, I have learned that there is a widespread discourse of China's rise and the forecast that a power transition will occur, a transition that could make China the most powerful nation globally. In the following chapters I will try to apply power transition theory to the Middle East and assess whether a power transition between China and the US in the area is applicable given China's current foreign policy and the growing presence of China in the Middle East.
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