中國中東介入政策的評估：權力轉移現象的浮現? - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi University 碩士論文 Master’s Thesis. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 sit. y. Nat. Assessing China's Engagement in the Middle East: Emerging Power Transition?. n. al. er. io. 中國中東介入政策的評估：權力轉移現象的浮現?. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Student: Roni Oren Advisor: Alan Hao Yang. 中華民國 104 年 7 月 July 2015.

(2) Assessing China's Engagement in the Middle East: Emerging Power Transition? 中國中東介入政策的評估：權力轉移現象的浮現? 研究生：松柔霓指導教授：楊昊. Student: Roni Oren Advisor: Alan Hao Yang. 國立政治大學. 政治大. 立亞太研究英語碩士學位學程. ‧ 國. 學碩士論文. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. e nA gThesis chi. i Un. v. Submitted to International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies National Chengchi University In partial fulfillment of the Requirement For the degree of Master in China Studies. 中華民國 104 年 7 月 July 2015.

(3) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT. I would like to thank my advisor, professor Alan Yang Hao, for guiding me through the challenging process of writing. Professor Yang helped me in finding and defining the topic of my research, and assisted me in the research and writing process. It would be extremely difficult to complete this research without his insights and hopeful ideas. I would also like to thank the department of International Master’s of Asia Pacific Studies for the past wonderful two years. When I applied to. 政治大. IMAS program more than two years ago, I had no idea that it will lead me. 立. to such an adventure. I have learned so much from NCCU professors and. ‧ 國. 學. from living in Taiwan, and for that I am grateful.. I have no doubt I am going back home more knowledgeable and with a. ‧. larger perspective of Taiwan, China and the Asia – Pacific.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i. i Un. v. Roni Oren Taipei, Taiwan.

(4) ABSTRACT. This study aims at examining the different aspects of China’s involvement in the Middle East: security, energy and economy, in the context of its evolving foreign policy and changing international status. The main question of the research is whether a power transition between the US and China is possible in the region of the Middle East. Hence. The power transition theory developed by AFK Organski in the 1950s is the basis of this research. The main question is answered by several secondary. 政治大 it combine into its overall foreign policy; What are the strong points as 立. questions: What is China's foreign policy in the Middle East, and how does. ‧ 國. 學. opposed to the weak points of China's relations with Middle Eastern countries; Is China on the course of achieving parity with the US in the. ‧. region of Middle East? And the last one, is China satisfied with its current role in the Middle East and the regional existing order, or it would like to. y. Nat. sit. alter it in order for it to be able to replace the US as the hegemonic power. er. io. in the area. If China is indeed becoming more powerful in the area and is. n. a l hegemony, the transformation challenging the American of the current iv n U e ngames order and accepted rules of the g c hini the region could be changed to. Ch. accommodate China’s needs, and this might lead to tension between China and the US or even conflicts. Keywords: China, United States, Middle East, Power transition theory, parity, overtaking, economy, military, energy.. ii.

(5) 摘要本研究主要探討中國如何介入中東地區，並且檢視其多重戰略操作現況，其中包括了安全議題、能源議題、以及經貿議題。透過中國藉由上述議題介入中東事務的發展，本研究期望能呈現中國的中東外交政策及其未來發展趨勢。本研究以中國與美國兩強是否會在中東地區發生權力轉移的可能作為研究問題，有鑑於此，本研究以 AFK Organski 的權力轉移理論作為全文的概念化基礎，並且重新檢視權力轉移理論在近年來的發展與實踐。就此，本研究將回應下列幾. 政治大. 個問題:中國的中東外交政策之主要戰略目的為何?此一政策在中國. 立. 全方位外交政策中的權重與定位為何?中國與中東國家的交往及雙邊. ‧ 國. 學. 關係中，所具備的優勢與劣勢為何?從結構層次來說，中國與美國在中東是否將達到權力平衡的局面?最後，中國是否滿意現階段自身在. ‧. 中東的地位以及中東地緣政治本身的現況?又或者中國傾向改變中東. y. Nat. sit. 現狀，並且有意取代美國。本研究透過對上述問題的重新檢視，發. er. io. 現如果中國在中東所介入的勢力與議題越廣泛，並且以挑戰美國霸. n. a. v. l C 權為前提全力推進中國的中東介入政策，這意味著中東的現狀與規 ni. hengchi U. 則將會被調整與改變，進而產生權力轉移的情況。不過，中國現階段並未有意、有能力挑戰美國在中東的戰略地位，因為這將使得中國與美國的結構性矛盾導向衝突。. iii.

(6) TABLE OF CONTENTS. Chapter 1 Introduction.................................................................................................. 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................... 1.2 Purpose of Research .............................................................................................. 1.3 Research Questions ............................................................................................... 1.4 Framework ........................................................................................................... 1.4.1 Independent Variables .................................................................................. 1.4.2 Dependent Variables ...................................................................................... 政治大. 1.4.3 Intermediate Variable..................................................................................... 立. 1.5 Methodology ............................................................................................................... ‧ 國. 學. 1.5.1 Scope .................................................................................................................. ‧. 1.5.2 Limits and Challenges ........................................................................................ sit. y. Nat. 1.5.3 Chapter Layout ................................................................................................... io. er. Chapter 2 Literature Review ......................................................................................... al. 2.1 Power Transition Theory ....................................................................................... n. iv n C h eTransition 2.1.1 Development of Power i U .................................................. n g c hTheory 2.1.2 Application of Power Transition Theory to the Rise of China ...................... 2.2 China's Foreign Relations 1949-2015 .................................................................. 2.2.1 Foreign Policy in the Revolutionary Era 1949-1976 ................................... 2.2.2 Reform and Opening up Starting in Late 1970s .......................................... 2.2.3 International Organizations and Regional Mechanisms .............................. 2.2.4 New Foreign Policy Initiatives 2012-2015 ................................................. 2.3 China- Middle East Relations .............................................................................. 2.3.1 Marginal Influence and Attempts in Spreading Ideology ............................. iv.

(7) 2.3.2 Expansion of Diplomatic Relations .............................................................. 2.3.3 Deeper Involvement through Arms Sales and Economic Incentives............ 2.3.4 Energy and Economic Interests Drive China to the Middle East ................. 2.3.5 From Non-intervention to Increasing Involvement ...................................... Chapter 3 Military and Security Involvement ............................................................ 3.1 China ..................................................................................................................... 3.1.1 Military Strategy ........................................................................................... 3.1.2 One Belt One Road Initiative ........................................................................ 3.1.3 Chinese Participation in International Military Missions .............................. 政治大. 3.1.4 Naval Capabilities .......................................................................................... 立. 3.1.5 Arms Sales ..................................................................................................... ‧ 國. 學. 3.1.6 The ISIL Crisis .............................................................................................. 3.2 The US ................................................................................................................... ‧. 3.2.1 Arms Sales ..................................................................................................... y. Nat. er. io. sit. 3.2.2 Military Campaigns ...................................................................................... 3.2.3 Routine Military Presence.............................................................................. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. 3.3 Local Reactions to Military & Security External Involvement ............................. engchi. 3.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ Chapter 4 Energy and Economy Involvement ............................................................ 4.1 China ..................................................................................................................... 4.1.1 Oil and Natural Gas ...................................................................................... 4.1.2 Trade and Investment .................................................................................... 4.2 The US .................................................................................................................. 4.2.1 Oil and Natural Gas ...................................................................................... 4.2.2 Trade and Investment .................................................................................... v.

(8) 4.3 Local Reactions to Energy & Economy External Involvement ............................ 4.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ Chapter 5 Research Findings and Future Scenario.................................................... 5.1 Research Findings ................................................................................................ 5.2 Future Scenario .................................................................................................... Bibliography .................................................................................................................. Appendix Questions asked during the conducted interviews ......................................... 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. vi. i Un. v.

(9) LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The 15 Countries with the Highest Military Expenditure in 2014 .................. Figure 2: China’s Import Transit Routes & Critical Checkpoints and Proposed/Under Construction SLOC Bypass Routes ................................................................................ Figure 3: The Top 10 Arms Exporters by Country, 2010-2013: Percent of Global Share Figure 4: The 10 largest importers of major weapons and their main suppliers, 2010–14............................................................................................................................ Figure 5: Global Military Expenditure versus Oil Dependence .................................... Figure 6: China’s Oil Imports by Country, 2013 ............................................................. 政治大. Figure 7: China’s Energy Mix, 2013 ............................................................................... 立. Figure 8: China – Middle East Trade Volume in Millions of USD 2005-2013 .............. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 9: US Crude Oil Imports from Arab Countries 1994-2014 .................................. ‧. Figure 10: The US Energy Mix, 2014.............................................................................. sit. y. Nat. Figure 11: US Imports from MENA Countries/Territories, 2011 ................................... io. al. er. Figure 12: US Exports to MENA Countries/Territories, 2011 ........................................ v. n. Figure 13: US-MENA Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 2011 ...................................... Ch. engchi. i Un. Figure 14: Comparison between China and the US in the Middle East .......................... vii.

(10) Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background The Middle East, the cradle of Western civilization, has a long history of being occupied and influenced by different powers. The Middle East has always served as an axis between Europe and Asia, enabling passage of military forces and trade delegations, and therefore, time after time, foreign and local empires sought to secure their control over it. The Middle East was under the rule of, inter alia, the Persian Empire, the Hellenistic Empire, the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire and currently, it is deeply influenced by the United States of America (US), the most significant international power in the region.1. 政治大 least affected warring country 立 in the war. In the postwar period, the US economy soared. After World War II, the US emerged as the new international power, as it was the. ‧ 國. 學. and it was able to achieve an unprecedented economic prosperity, an invaluable contribution to its becoming a great power. The US has successfully maintained its new dominant position during the Cold War and even after the fall of the Soviet Union in. ‧. 1991, and remained the most powerful and uncontested country in the world until this. sit. y. Nat. very day.2. al. er. io. Nowadays, the general consensus in International Relations research, is that we are. n. in the process of a power transition between the US and China. There are still dissenting. Ch. i Un. v. views regarding the future relations between these two world powers, but it is rather. engchi. consensual that they will determine global dynamics in the decades to come.3 Both the US and China have big stakes in the Middle East. The US is involved in this region since last century in the 1930s, importing energy resources, intervening in regional military conflicts in Lebanon (1982), Kuwait (1987) Iraq (1991, 2003),. 1. John W. Graver and Jon B, Alterman, The Vital Triangle. China, the United States, and the Middle East (Washington D.C, The CSIS Press, 2008), p.p. 1-2. 2 "The Postwar United States, 1945-1968", Library of Congress, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.loc.gov/teachers/classroommaterials/presentationsandactivities/presentations/timeline/post war/ 3 Peter Shearman, Power Transition and International Order in Asia (New York: Routledge, 2014), p. 8.. 1.

(11) dispatching tens of thousands to the Persian Gulf and so on so forth. Moreover, the US is also diplomatically invested in the region, most notably in the Arab-Israeli conflict.4 For China, the Middle East is the most important resource for energy, as more than two thirds of imported oil to China originates in the Middle East, a trend that is predicted to be continued to the point that by 2035, three quarters of China's oil will be imported from there. 5 Nevertheless, China's relations with the Middle East go far beyond oil. China's trade with Middle Eastern countries has increased 50-fold in the past 20 years to nearly 300$ USD in 2013. In 2010, China replaced the US as the largest trade partner of the Middle East biggest economy: Saudi Arabia, and since then became the most important trade partner to many other countries in the area.6 A growing Chinese presence in the Middle East and interaction with American. 政治大 unclear what it is that China 立 wants to achieve in the Middle East: secure more energy. traditional allies such as Saudi Arabia might lead to conflicts, especially when it is still. ‧ 國. 學. resources and multiply the volume of trade relations? Or perhaps it plans to limit the American influence in the area, by, for example, by restraining the US military activities in the region? I will try to address these questions in this study and determine. ‧. whether the US and China are in the process of a power transition in the Middle East.. y. Nat. io. sit. 1.2 Purpose of Research. n. al. er. In this study I intend to examine China's different aspects of involvement in the. i Un. v. Middle East, such as energy, economy and security, in the context of its evolving. Ch. engchi. foreign policy and changing international status and determine the degree of importance of this area of the world for China: is this a region of utmost importance for China, or is it a mere part of China's policy to diversify its energy resources and potential allies as part of an outreach to the developing world. If the latter assumption is correct, the meaning is that China will invest more inputs in the area, both financially and politically. This trend will lead to extensive consequences in the area, such as. 4. Ibid, p.p. 93-94. Varij Kāzemi, Abbās and Xiangming Chen, "China and the Middle East: More than Oil", The World Financial Review, November 26, 2014, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=3177 6 Frank Kane, "China Blazes a Trail as Trading Partner for Middle East", The National, April 27, 2014, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.thenational.ae/business/industry-insights/economics/china-blazesa-trail-as-trading-partner-for-middle-east 5. 2.

(12) transformation of the current order and accepted rules of the games, and possibly, to conflicts. As China's traditional foreign policy revolves around concepts of "peaceful development" (Hépíng fāzhǎn 和平發展) and conflict avoidance7, I am interested in examining how its involvement in the Middle East fits in this policy. Not only the Middle East suffers ongoing wars and conflicts, especially since the Arab Spring8, the Middle East is also the center of clashes between the West, usually led by the US and pariah countries like Iraq and Iran. Instability in the Middle East cannot be ignored as insurgents like the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (‫الدولة اإلسالمية في العراق والشام‬ ISIL) take over 9 and power struggles in Yemen lead to a sectarian Sunni – Shiite conflicts that expands beyond Yemen's boarders to include many major players in the Middle East.10. 立. 政治大. Therefore, if involvement in the area will force China to get more involved in. ‧ 國. 學. regional conflicts, which also constitute a risky adventure, than perhaps China will prefer to stay away from the area and limit its involvement to specific aspects, such as. ‧. confined economic involvement.. Moreover, it is important to emphasize that the Chinese involvement in the Middle. y. Nat. sit. East is not in void. For many years now the Middle East is under the influence of many. al. er. io. international and regional powers, the most powerful and influential of them is the US.. v. n. The US has many close allies in the region to whom it sells arms, has intimate. Ch. i Un. intelligence collaboration with, and provides other financial and security backup and assistance.. engchi. The American military has soldiers posted in many Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Kuwait, Bahrain,. Jianwei Wang, "China’s Peaceful Rise: A Comparative Study", The East Asia Institute(EAI) (2009): 3, accessed May 15, 2015, p. 3, http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/2009052017544710.pdf 8 Muhamad S. Olimat China and the Middle East from Silk Road to Arab Spring (New York: Routledge, 2013), p.p. 89-90. 9 Jessica Lewis Mcfate, " Here's All of the Area That ISIS Controls", Business Insider, March 5, 2015, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-all-of-the-area-that-isis-controls-2015-3 10 Martin Reardon, "Saudi Arabia, Iran and the 'Great Game' in Yemen", Aljazeera, March 26, 2015, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/09/saudi-arabia-iran-greatgame-ye-201492984846324440.html 7. 3.

(13) Oman, Israel and Qatar11. There are a few dozen American military bases for both naval and aerial operations in the area. As China's military is still inferior to that of the US, is China capable of challenging what is considered to be the American uncontested Middle East hegemony? This is a complex question, as even though China and the US represent rivaling points of view, they are also partners. China and the US have stakes in their perspective economies. One cannot act independently from the other, and there is no zero-sum game between the two. China is the second largest trading partner of the US while the latter is China's largest trade partner. Thus, if the American economy takes a blow, it does not necessarily benefit the Chinese economy, or even more likely, it might damage it.12 As the US heavy military presence in the Middle East is mostly aimed at securing. 政治大 motivation to challenge 立 the American supremacy? China now enjoys the status of a the safety of the sea lanes used for oil transportation, does China even have any. ‧ 國. 學. 'free rider': it does not dispatch military force to the Middle East, but only enjoys the benefits of the American maintenance of security in the area, especially those of the sea lanes which are crucial for China's economy.. ‧. It is because of this unique relations between these two world powers that I decided. y. Nat. sit. to apply power transition theory in order to analyze the rise of China in the Middle East.. al. er. io. The power transition theory was developed in the 1950s by the political science theorist. n. A.F.K Organski. 13 This theory examines relations between global powers as they. Ch. i Un. v. compete over power, influence and dominance. More specifically, this theory explains. engchi. transformation of power between a dominant power that maintains the current world order, and a smaller rising power that challenges its preponderance. It is important to emphasize that power transition usually does not only end with a shift of power from one country to the other, but with a change of the global order represented by the power in decline14.. 11. Jules Dufour, "The Worldwide Network of US Military Bases", Global Research, July 1, 2007, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-worldwide-network-of-us-militarybases/5564 12 Ronald L. Tammen and Jacek Kugler, "Power Transition and China-US Conflicts", in Chinese Journal of International Politics, 1 (2006), p.p. 43-45. 13 A.F.K Organski, World Politics (New York: Random House, 1958). 14 Ibid. An exception is the power transition between the United Kingdom and the US that although resulted in the US becoming the new world leader, did not result in a change of world order.. 4.

(14) In my opinion, the discourse of China's rise fits to this pattern, as many scholars predict it will come at the expanse of the current global power, the US, a notion that for years now raises fear and suspicion in the US15. Therefore, in this study I plan to explore the idea of power transition not globally, but regionally – in the Middle East. I selected this region for two reasons. The first, is that I am from the Middle East, and thus, the future of the area does not interest me only from an academic point of view, but because the dynamics between the US and China in the Middle East will have an impact on my country's future. Israel is relying on the US in its conflict with the Arab world. It is not only that since 1962 Israel received military aid from the US in the value of more than 100$ billion, 16 but it also provides Israeli with substantial political support in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, in international. 政治大 In case the US involvement 立 in the Middle East will decline, the relations between. organizations such as the United Nations (UN), etc.17. ‧ 國. 學. the US and Israel are likely to change as well. Moreover, the Middle East will not be the same without the American push for democracy, without the war on terrorism it is leading, and without involvement in critical issues such as the Iranian nuclear program.. ‧. The second motivation is that is seems like this topic is not researched thoroughly. y. Nat. sit. enough, comparing to China's involvement in other areas in the world, such as Latin. al. er. io. America and Africa. It is much easier to find academic material about these two topics,. n. but books written about the relations of China with the Middle East, especially in the st. Ch. i Un. v. 21 century, are rather scarce. I do not know what is the reason behind the relatively. engchi. scarcity of material on this subject, but it motivated me to conduct this research.. 1.3 Research Questions In this study I intend to examine the relations between China and the Middle East through the lens of power transition theory, in order to answer several questions. The main question is, whether there is a possibility for process of power transition between. 15. Michael Schuman, "Why Do We Fear a Rising China?", Time, June 7, 2011, accessed May 15, 2015, http://business.time.com/2011/06/07/why-do-we-fear-a-rising-china/ 16 Moti, Bassok, "U.S. Military Aid to Israel Exceeds $100 Billion", Haaretz, August 18, 2014, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.611001 17 "U.S. Relations With Israel ", U.S Department of State, March 10, 2014, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3581.htm. 5.

(15) China and the US in the Middle East. I plan to answer this main question through answering the following secondary questions: 1. What is China's foreign policy in the Middle East, and how does it combine into its overall foreign policy. 2. What are the strong points as opposed to the weak points of China's relations with Middle Eastern countries; 3. Is China on the course of achieving parity with the US in the region of Middle East? 4. Is China satisfied with its current role in the Middle East and the regional existing order, or it would like to alter it in order for it to be able to replace the US as the hegemonic power in the area.. 1.4 Framework. 立. 政治大. The goal of this thesis is to understand China's involvement in the Middle East in. ‧ 國. 學. the context of China's rise in the international arena and assess whether it can replace the US and become the new regional hegemon. As the ways to assess a country's. variables I use in this study to support my hypothesis.. Nat. er. io. Intermediate Variable. sit. y. ‧. influence can vary from one to the other, I hereby define the dependent and independent. n. a l influence in the Middle American v East in aspects i n C hand security, energy of military U and economy engchi. Independent Variables. Dependent Variables 1. China's ability to exercise power in the Middle East 2. Reactions among Middle Eastern countries to Chinese and American influence in the region. • •. kk •. Source: The author. 6. Relations with Middle Eastern countries divided to: 1. Military and security 2. Energy 3. Economy.

(16) 1.4.1 Independent Variables 1. Military and Security Relations with Middle Eastern Countries As mentioned above, the US military is heavily invested in the Middle East, while China is yet to establish military presence as well. There have been several exceptions to that: Chinese soldiers as part of U.N peacekeeping missions,18 Chines navy patrolling the Gulf of Aden against pirates19 and missions to evict its citizens from Libya (2011) and Yemen due to external military intervention by NATO and Saudi-led Arab coalition.20 The American forces official duties in the Middle East include, inter alia, maintaining peace and security in the area, keeping the sea lines of communications (SLOC) open21, training Syrian rebels and Iraqi soldiers22 and participating in the war. 政治大 such as Israel, Egypt and立 Saudi Arabia gigantic military aid worth billions of dollars.. waged against ISIL23. Moreover, the US is providing some Middle Eastern countries, 24. ‧ 國. 學. With the US providing significant military support both in funds and military presence, it is difficult for China to stand up the competition. Yet, as China is increasing. ‧. its military capabilities and expenditures, I would like to inspect whether China is increasing its role in the Middle East in the security and military aspect compared with. y. Nat. sit. the US. I will do so by reviewing arms and military technology transfer to Middle. n. al. er. io. Eastern countries, military activities and presence and joint military exercises.. 18. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Gill Bates and Chin-Hao Huang, "China's expanding Peacekeeping Role: Its significance and the Policy Implications", SIPRI Policy Brief (2009), accessed May 15, 2015, http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/SIPRIPB0902.pdf 19 "Chinese Naval Fleet Carries Out First Escort Mission off Somalia", People's Daily Online, January 6, 2009, accessed May 5 2015, http://en.people.cn/90002/96181/ 20 "Evacuation Shows China Will Protect its Citizens", China daily, April 1, 2015, accessed May 5, 2015, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-04/01/content_19965848.htm 21 Christopher P. Cavas and Mustafa Awad, "Expansion of 5th Fleet Base Underscores Long-Term Gulf Presence", Navy times, March 27, 2014, accessed May 5, 2015, http://archive.navytimes.com/article/20140327/NEWS/303270034/Expansion-5th-Fleet-baseunderscores-long-term-gulf-presence 22 Andrew Tilghman, "DoD: 1,000 New Trainers Could Deploy to Middle East", Military Times, January 16, 2015, accessed May 5, 2015, http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/01/16/syrian-trainersdeploying/21873945/ 23 Russell Berman, "The War Against ISIS Will Go Undeclared", The Atlantic, April 15, 2015, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/04/the-war-against-isis-willgo-undeclared/390618/ 24 Armin Rosen, Jeremy Bender and Amanda Macias, "The Most Powerful Militaries In The Middle East [RANKED] ", Business Insider, October 27, 2014, accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-middle-east-2014-8?op=1. 7.

(17) 2. Energy Relations with Middle Eastern Countries China's quest for energy is one of the global economy's main locomotives and is an enormous concern for China's leadership as an increasing amount of energy resources are required to maintain its economic growth. China became a net oil importer in 1993, and since then its hunger for energy grew rapidly. Currently, China is the world's second largest oil consumer, rated second only to the US, and became the largest energy consumer already in 2010.25 Energy resources are not just a commodity, but a factor that influences foreign policy, as well as a potential tool of foreign policy. As Brenda Shaffer explains in Energy Politics: "Stable access to oil, including during war time, is a component of military planning. 政治大 During periods of tight international energy market conditions, energy tends to become 立 and national security policies, and lack of access creates a diminished military capacity.. ‧ 國. 學. a more a more prominent factor and tool in states' foreign policies and a higher priority on their policy agenda" 26. ‧. Hence, energy is a significant component in every country's foreign policy, notably in the case of an enormous energy consumer, producer and importer such as China.. y. Nat. sit. Energy has also a great impact on a country's economy and military capacity, and since. al. the two sides is crucial to assess their general relations.. er. io. the main source for China's imported oil is the Middle East, energy relations between. n. iv n C h e Inwill In order to measure this variable, h i UChina's imports of energy sources g cexamine. from the Middle East compared to that of the US, mostly, but not limited to oil, forecasts for energy resources imports in the decades to come, as well as bilateral investments in long-term energy projects. 3. Economic Relations with Middle Eastern Countries In power transition theory, international economic relationships are inseparable from power relations, and one cannot be explained without the other. According to the theory, political interactions between competing states can be explained and understood only by measuring their basic power relations which are conditioned by, inter alia, their. "China Country Analysis Brief Overview", U.S Energy Information Administration (2014). Accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH 26 Brenda Shaffer, Energy Politics, (Pennsylvania: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009), p. 28. 25. 8.

(18) economic growth. Similarly, economic relations cannot be understood without taking into account power hierarchy between states. This notion is opposed to traditional policy analysts who contend that economic interactions are completely distinct from political interactions and that economic considerations are secondary in importance to security considerations. Therefore, economic relations between China and the Middle East compared with the US is an important variable that I have decided to examine.27 Moreover, economic relations are a testimony to satisfaction or dissatisfactions from other states. Economic interactions among satisfied nations result in a more cooperative approach. In other words, satisfactions will result in augmented economic relations: increasing economic transactions, bilateral economic delegations, rising volumes of trade, a growing number of foreign direct investment, agreements of cooperation etc.. 政治大 cooperative approach, meaning weak economic relations. 立. Vice versa, economic interactions among dissatisfied nations will be reflected in non28. ‧ 國. 學. Therefore, analyzing the strength and depth of economic relations between China and the Middle East compared with the US will help to establish whether there is a cooperative or non-cooperative approach among them, and whether Middle Eastern. ‧. countries accept or reject the Chinese regional presence. I will measure this variable by. sit. y. Nat. examining trade relations financial investment as well as investment in long-term projects, focusing on infrastructure, as the latter indicated a commitment to be invested. io. n. al. er. in the Middle East in years to come and help it establish a stronghold in the area.. 1.4.2 Dependent VariablesC. hengchi. i Un. v. 1. China's Ability to Exercise Power in the Middle East Since I am interested in finding out whether there is a possibility for a power transition in the Middle East between the US and China, I have to measure China's power in the region. I will do so by examining how effectively China can exercise its policy, or whether it has to yield to dictations by other players. It is undeniable that China has a great impact in the Middle East, but as David M. Lampton explains in The Free Faces of Chinese Power there is a distinction between having an impact and exercising power:. 27. Tammen, Ronald L. et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000), p.p. 107-108; p. 203, p. 204: footnote 1. 28 Ibid, p. 109.. 9.

(19) "…The exercise of power involves the purposeful use of resources to achieve goals efficiently. Power is demonstrated when a leader or national leadership efficiently achieves goals throughout the entire cycle of policy making, from agenda setting to formulation, implementation, and subsequent adaptation. A powerful nation is one that authoritatively sets its own agenda as well as the international agenda over a broad range of issues, wins support for (or compliance with) its policies both internally and externally, influences the implementation process so that there is a high degree of correspondence between initial intentions and actual outcomes, and desists from pursuing policies that prove ineffective or counterproductive". 29 Having an impact can describe China's status in the Middle East since mid-1990s and even more so in the 21st century. What I want to find out is whether China has a. 政治大 China today in a position where it sets its Middle East policy and able to implement it 立 with the consent of international and local players or despite their contest? It is crucial coherent policy in the Middle East in various issues beyond its economic benefits? Is. ‧ 國. 學. to determine the nature of power China has in the Middle East in order to identify a power shift in the area between the US and China. Therefore, I will be mindful to how. ‧. China's policy in the Middle East serves its general foreign policy, and whether its. sit. y. Nat. policies in the area are effective in realizing China's goals and interests.. io. er. 2. Reactions among Middle Eastern countries to Chinese and American influence in the region. n. al. i Un. v. A derivative of China's ability to exercise power is the Middle East is how its. Ch. engchi. involvement, as well as that of the US are perceived among local actors. If China's increasing involvement in the area is seen as a positive trend, China can proceed in increasing its involvement without encountering too many objections and obstacles. The same goes the other way around. If China is perceived to be overstepping and meddling in Middle Eastern affairs, it will face difficulties to promote its agenda in the area, such as boosting trade, mobilizing political support, suggesting itself as a mediator in local affairs, sending military forces to the area and so on so forth. It is also a possibility that China's presence in the Middle East is welcomed by some countries while it is opposed by others. It is likely that China's economic interest in the. 29. David M. Lampton, The Free Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds (Berkley: University of California Press, 2008), p. 9.. 10.

(20) Middle East and the enormous benefits entailed are widely accepted, while attempts of being involved in political processes taking place in the region are not acceptable. Furthermore, it is important to establish how positive China's involvement is perceived relatively to that of the US. Perhaps Middle Eastern countries would prefer no external global power to be present in the area at all, but they still prefer Chinese presence to Western presence or vice versa. Local attitudes toward foreign presence in the Middle East will help to assess power transition between the US and China in the region. Therefore, when I collect data about Chinese and American involvement in the area I will pay attention to Middle Eastern countries' reaction to it.. 1.4.3 Intermediate Variable – American Influence in the Middle East. 政治大. There is a complex inter-relationship between China, the US and the Middle East, meaning, Sino – Middle East relations have an impact on the US, American – Middle. 立. East relations have an impact on China and Sino – American relations influence the. ‧ 國. 學. Middle East.30 This relationship is among three players, a triangular relationship. In this case, the triangular relations are among three important powers, and can be understood influenced by each player’s relationship to the third.31. Nat. y. ‧. as a “strategic triangle” in which the relationship between any two participants is. sit. If I am interested in assessing China’s involvement in the Middle East, I have to. er. io. research the US involvement in the Middle East and asses its influence on Sino –. al. n. iv n C U relations relations h ande US-Middle n g c h i East. Middle East relations as well. In this study, I will review two relations of this triangle: China– Middle East. and examine mutual. influence.. 1.5 Methodology My research was conducted using two research methods: data collection and interviews. This research relies mainly on secondary data resources obtained mostly from the social sciences library and Institute of International Resources library in National Cheng-chi University (NCCU). I also collected data from online sources: reports written by think-tanks such as the Jamestown Foundation, government agencies. 30. Graver and Alterman, The Vital Triangle. China, the United States, and the Middle East, p.p. 1-2. Lowell Dittmer, “The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game – Theoretical Analysis”, in World Politics, 33 (1981), p.p. 485-491. 31. 11.

(21) such as the US energy information administration (EIA), and news articles from Western, Chinese and Middle Eastern sources. I also included primary data in my research, although to a lesser extent, such as information released by China and Middle Eastern government agencies and embassies, China's white papers on defense, energy, foreign relations, and speeches regarding these issues. Additionally, in order to support my data collection, I conducted interviews with two experts of China – Middle Eastern relations. The first expert I interviewed is Liu Chang-Cheng (劉長政) from the Department of Arabic Language & Culture in NCCU. The interview was conducted on June 5th, 2015 at NCCU. The second expert I interviewed is Liu Kuo-Hsing (劉國興), a former Taiwanese diplomat to several Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Turkey, and Kuwait, the last posting in 2011- 2014.. 政治大 NCCU (IIR). I find it important to conduct in depth interview beyond the data 立. The interview was conducted in June 8th, 2015 at Institute of International Relations at. collection, as interviewing these experts provided me with insights it would be difficult. ‧ 國. 學. to obtain from data collection alone.. 1.5.1 Scope. ‧. Defining the scope of the research was a hard task to do, as the Middle East is a large. y. Nat. sit. and encompassing dozens of countries with mixed populations, each potentially. al. account, the Middle East has different definitions.. er. io. representing different aspects of Chinese relations with the Middle East. On that. n. iv n C In the World Factbook of the h eCentral h i U Agency (CIA) of the US the n g cIntelligence. Middle East is defined as containing the following countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan,. Bahrain, the Palestinian Authority, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, UAE and Yemen.32 Yet, in the MerriamWebster dictionary, the Middle East is defined as the area that lies between Afghanistan in the East to Libya in the West.33 At the same time, the World Bank refers to the Area as MENA – the Middle East and North Africa that includes even more countries (although it excludes Afghanistan): Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,. 32. "Middle East", Central Intelligence Agency. Accessed May 15, 2015, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/wfbExt/region_mde.html 33 "Middle East", Merriam-Webster.com. Accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.merriamwebster.com/dictionary/Middle East.. 12.

(22) Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, the West Bank and Gaza and Yemen.34 As this research is limited in time and reviewing and researching this long list of countries would have been broad, I decided it is best to focus on the Persian Gulf area as the countries in this area pose opportunities and challenges for China, including political crisis, such as the international effort to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state, inexhaustible business and economic opportunities, including, but not limited to energy resources, as well as challenges such as the question of the security of sea lanes, as about 30 percent of the seaborne-traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz35 every day.36 Even though the Persian Gulf area is the focus of this research, I also included other. 政治大 and the 2011 military intervention 立 in Libya. I believe that the role China played in these issues of importance such as the recent crisis in Yemen, the ongoing civil war in Syria. ‧ 國. 學. critical international events is crucial to for understanding China's future prospects of involvement in the Middle East. By the same token, included data for other Middle Eastern countries in case I found to be contributing to my research.. ‧. As for the scope of time, my research focuses on trends of China’s current foreign. Nat. sit. y. policy, mostly the so called China’s rise. In order to analyze this trends, I relied on the. al. er. io. most updated sources I could find. Generally speaking, I found that sources from. n. several years are too outdated and irrelevant. Therefore, besides the historical overview. Ch. i Un. v. of China's foreign policy and China's relations with the Middle East in chapter 2, the. engchi. rest of my research is be based mostly on the last few years.. 1.5.2 Limits and Challenges Predicting the outcome of political developments is not an easy, and some might say, a treacherous task, and in the past, political scientists had failed over and over to predict different events starting from the unpredictable fall of the Soviet Union to "Middle East and North Africa" The World Bank. Accessed May 15, 2015, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/0,,menuPK:247619~page PK:146748~piPK:146812~theSitePK:256299,00.html 35 The Strait of Hormuz is bordered by Iran, Oman's Musandam Peninsula and the UAE. Through its waters, passes most of the oil originating from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 36 "World Oil Transit Checkpoints", United States Energy Information Administration (2014). Accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbriefs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/wotc.pdf 34. 13.

(23) forecasting the rise of new world powers such as Brazil in the mid-1970s and Japan in the 1980s and up to the recent so-called Arab Spring that came as an utter surprise to the Arab people, Arab leaders and the entire international community .37 As I intend to research and conclude whether China might overtake as the US as a dominant power or as a hegemon in the Middle East, I must take into consideration that it is a highly complicated question influenced by many factors, most of which are out of the scope of my research. Such factors might include changes in the priority of China and/or the US and the importance of this regions in their respective foreign policies, a change in the situation of the Uighur Muslim minority in the Western province of Xinjiang that might lead to a deterioration of relations between China and the Muslim world, new developments in the global energy market, rise of more terrorist. 政治大 Therefore, I define my 立research not as a prediction of a future development, but. organizations in the Middle, the fall of the Chinese Communist Party of China etc.. ‧ 國. 學. more, so to speak, as a theoretical hypothesis analyzing a certain political trajectory that may or may not be realized. Due to this complexity, all I can do is to analyze the variables I have defined as important to measure the relations between China and the. ‧. Middle East, and based on these variables to reach a conclusion.. y. Nat. sit. Another limitation is that my objects of research, China and other Middle Eastern. al. er. io. countries are not democratic countries and therefore not only they do not support. n. freedom of information, they often even hide information. 38 For instance, a report. Ch. i Un. v. prepared for the US Congress about implications of China's rise for the global interests. engchi. of the US, contends that the process of foreign policy decision making in China, as well as the decision makers themselves, are still considered to be a mystery. Even under special circumstances, such as the 2001 collision of a Chinese fighter jet and an American reconnaissance plane and an unexpected denial of access of American ships. 37. Jörg Faust, 2011" The Ability of Political Science to Predict Future Developments", German Development Institute (2011). Accessed May 15th 2015, http://www.diegdi.de/uploads/media/Column_Faust.04.07.2011.pdf; Shearman, Power Transition and International Order in Asia, p. 8. 38 "It Belongs to You: Public Information in the Middle East and North Africa", Transparency International (2013). Accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publication/it_belongs_to_you_public_information_mena. 14.

(24) to Hong Kong port in 2007, the American administration knew little to nothing about how China analyzed the situation and dealt with it.39 In a recent book about the Middle East, China and the Middle East from Silk Road to Arab Spring, the author, Muhamad S. Olimat, addresses this issue as well: "One of the challenges of doing research on China and the Middle East is the lack of data and accurate historical accounts of Sino-Middle Eastern relations. I was struck by the unavailability of major statistics and yearbooks on China at some Chinese diplomatic missions… while Chinese diplomats are accessible, it is difficult to get answers or conduct interviews on basic issues related to China's foreign policy in the Middle East" 40. 政治大. Therefore, I relied mostly on an outlook view of Sino – Middle East relations: what the Chinese and Middle Eastern sides decide to reveal, as well as the way these relations. 立. are measured and perceived by scholars, international organizations and the media.. ‧ 國. 學. There's no doubt that China is more accessible than it was in previous decades, but data collection is still more of a challenge in this area of the world rather than the US or. ‧. Western Europe. Therefore, my research and conclusions might be lacking intimate information from the inside of decision-making on this issue, and rely mostly on. y. Nat. sit. materials obtained from think-tanks and research institutes, international organizations,. n. 1.5.3 Chapter Layout a l. er. io. Western governments analysis and the media.. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. This is the end of the first chapter in which I explained the background and purpose of the research, my research questions, the definitions of the variables I used to answer these questions, the research methods I applied, as well as the scope of the research and finally, limits and challenges I faced in conducting this research. The second chapter is literature review in which I reviewed the sources I used in this study, divided into three topics:. Kerry Dumbaugh, "China’s Foreign Policy: What Does It Mean for U.S. Global Interests?", Congressional Research Center (2008): 3. Accessed May 15, 2015, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34588.pdf 40 Olimat, China and the Middle East from Silk Road to Arab Spring, p. 97. 39. 15.

(25) . Theoretical framework: explanation of power transition theory and why it is relevant for my research. I explained the original theory devised in the 1950s, as well as later developments and applications to China.. . Foreign relations of China: Developments of China's foreign relations since the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to current foreign policy. This section is relevant to understand the context of China's Middle Eastern policy.. . China's relations with the Middle East: While China's relations with the Middle East became meaningful quite recently, the historical context must be explained, in this section, I reviewed China's relations with the Middle East since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the reform era and up. 政治大 In the third chapter I discuss military and security dimensions of China and the US 立 involvement in the Middle East, while chapter four deals with energy and economic until what is widely called China's rise.. ‧ 國. 學. aspects.. ‧. In the fifth chapter I conclude my research: I summarize my findings, draw conclusions from the data collection and interviews and determine whether there is an. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. y. emerging power transition in the Middle East between the US and China.. Ch. engchi. 16. i Un. v.

(26) Chapter 2 Literature Review 2.1 Power Transition Theory 2.1.1 Development of Power Transition Theory Power Transition is a theory by A.F.K Organski, introduced in his book World Politics published in 1956. 1 The theory was later developed by theorists including Organski himself in the War Ledger (1980), The Handbook of War Studies (1989) and Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. More important contributions are Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger by Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke and latest addition by Ronald L. Tammen in The Organsky Legacy: A Fifty-Year Research Program.2 In this section I will explain power transition theory. 政治大. and how it was developed over the years and define its main concepts.. 立. As its name suggests, power transition theory describes the dynamics between. ‧ 國. 學. powers as they rise or decline in a hierarchical international system. As opposed to realist theory, it portrays international politics as a hierarchy instead of an anarchy.. ‧. Actors accept their position in the international order and recognize influence of other states according to the power distribution.3. y. Nat. io. sit. In order to explain the basics of power transition theories, I will define the main. n. al. er. concepts used in this theory: 1. Hierarchy. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. The existence of the hierarchy is a very important characteristic of power transition theory, and one of the features distinguishing it from realist theory. All nations recognize the hierarchy and the distribution of power between them, while the power distribution is uneven and shared between a few.4 Organski describes this structure as. 1. Organski, World Politics. A.F.K Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); Jacek Kugler and A.F.K. Organski, “The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation”, in Handbook of War Studies, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky. (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1989); Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century; Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, ed., Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996); Ronald L. Tammen, "The Organski Legacy: A Fifty-Year Research Program", International Interactions 34 (2008): p.p. 314-332. 3 Organski, World Politics, p. 354. 4 Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, p. 6. 2. 17.

(27) a pyramid, that on top of it is situated the dominant nation. The pyramid is divided to four different types of states: . A dominant nation: Has the largest proportion of power resources in the system, yet, not a hegemon, as it cannot control other powerful nations by itself. It maintains its dominant status by suppressing rivaling nations and maintaining the international system under rules that benefit itself and its allies.. . Great powers: Have a significant portion of the power of the leader. They share the allocation of resources and use their military and economic strength to maintain the international system. Usually, great powers possess influence beyond their geographic region. Some of the great powers might not be fully integrated into the dominant power's system, and they might become challengers to the status quo.. . 學. ‧ 國. . 政治大 to the dominant state and are unable to challenge current global order. 立 Small powers: The largest number of nations. They possess little power in their. Middle powers: Have less power than great powers, and thus are not potential rivals. geographic region and have no influence or very small influence out of it.5 2. Power. ‧. In The War Ledger, Organski and Kugler state that a country's power is a function. y. Nat. of three factors: population, productivity and relative political capacity. They further. sit. discuss the relationship between accumulating national power and the probability of. n. al. er. io. war resulting from these domestic structural transformations.6 . Ch. i Un. v. Population: perhaps the most important indicator as it is a given situation that cannot. engchi. be dramatically changed. Without having a large population, a nation cannot become a great power or a dominant state. Large population itself is a necessary condition, but not sufficient, and it also depends on how population is used by the government to enhance economic growth and the nation's resources.7 . National economic productivity: in Power Transition, Challenge and the (Re)Emergence of China, David Rapkin and William Thompson explain that in power transition theory, the most important indicator of national economic. 5. Ibid, 6-8; Organski, World Politics, p.p. 364-369. Organski and Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980), p. 34. 7 Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, p.p. 6-8; Organski, World Politics, p.p. 18-19. 6. 18.

(28) productivity is GDP, and this is also how the probability of power transition is measured.8 . Political capacity: the effectiveness of the political system in mobilizing the population to advance national goals. Many developing countries have large populations, but their national power is low since because of low political capacity, the government does not utilize the population effectively. A weak decentralized state and domestic conflicts will prevent nations from increasing their national power. 9 3. Overtaking and Parity In power transition theory, the two concepts of power and parity define a structural condition that increases the probability of war. These concepts are. 政治大. measured in terms of the distance between the dominant nation's GDP and the GDP of the overtaking dissatisfied great power.. 立. Parity is defined as a situation in which a great power possess 80 percent or more. ‧ 國. 學. of the dominant nation's power, as achieving the dominant power's 80 percent GDP means that parity between the two was reached. Parity holds until the overtaker's. ‧. GDP exceeds 120 percent of the former system leader's GDP. 10. sit. y. Nat. Overtaking occurs when a great power enters a phase of fast economic growth. io. al. er. measured by its GDP in a faster rate than that of the dominant nation.11. n. 4. Satisfaction and dissatisfaction. Ch. i Un. v. Satisfaction is important to power transition theory since it is the force behind. engchi. emergence of conflicts. Conflicts are generated by the desire of a nation to improve its position within the given hierarchy. Challenges are not automatic: rising powers do not always challenge the system, unless they have a good reason to do so. 12 According to Organski, a nation is defined as satisfied by its relation to global order. If it favors the global order it is satisfied, while if it does not favor it, it is dissatisfied.13 Kim Woosang deducts from Organski´s argument that the dominant. 8. David Rapkin and William Thompson "Power Transition, Challenge, and the (Re) Emergence of China", International Interactions, 29 (2003): p. 323. 9 Ibid, p. 318, p. 323. 10 Ibid, p. 323. 11 Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, p.p. 21-24. 12 Ibid, p. 9; Tammen, "The Organsky Legacy: A Fifty-Year Research Program", p. 320. 13 Organski, World Politics, p. 366.. 19.

(29) nation is always satisfied, while the dissatisfied challenger is the nation that does not have much in common with the dominant nation.14 Organski divides all world powers to five categories: powerful and satisfied, powerful and dissatisfied, weak and satisfied and weak and dissatisfied. The last one is the dominant state which must be satisfied as it is placed at the top of the pyramid, ruling the international order that it itself designed according to its world view.15 The powerful and satisfied states benefit from the status quo and help to maintain it. These states enjoy wealth and prosperity and wield most of the power in the international system.16 Powerful and dissatisfied nations usually became powerful only after existing international order was set. These states are challengers, and they seek to improve. 政治大 setting the existing international order as well, but they found a place within it. 立. their status in the international community. The weak and satisfied were not part of. ‧ 國. 學. Usually these are small and wealthy countries.17. The last kind is the weak and dissatisfied, which are interested in changing. ‧. world order, but lack the power to do so. These are usually small and underdeveloped countries that feel underprivileged by the current world order.. y. Nat. sit. Because they are weak they do not endanger the international order, but they can be. er. io. powerful collectively and try to challenge the system, at least in a confined area.18. al. n. iv n C h e n g c h iin U Werner and Kugler define dissatisfactions terms of military buildups (1996),. Defining and measuring satisfaction and dissatisfaction vary. In Parity and War,. while in Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975 (1989) Kim Woosang defines it by the similarity of a state’s alliances with that of the dominant state and in Extending the Bounds of Power Transition Theory (2007) Michelle Benson defines it by means of economic and security coordination.19. 14. Kim Woosang, "Alliance Transitions and Great Power War", American Journal of Political Science 35 (2002): p. 842. 15 A.F.K Organski, World Politics (New York: Random House, 1958), p.p. 364-368. 16 Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, p. 9. 17 Organski, World Politics, p.p. 364-368. 18 Ibid, p.p. 364-368. 19 Michelle Benson "Extending the Bounds of Power Transition Theory", International Interactions, 33 (2007): p.p. 211-215; Werner and Kugler, "Power Transitions and Military Buildups: Resolving the Relationship between Arms Buildups and War"; Kim Woosang “Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975”, Journal of Conflict Resolution 33 (1989): p.p. 833850.. 20.

(30) The structural change described in power transition theory does not necessarily lead to war, but as two great powers, one in rise and one in decline ae competing for preponderance and usually represent conflicting ideologies, periods of power transition tend to be risky.20 This conclusion was first reached by Organski and Kugler in The War Ledger (1980), the first empirical testing of the theory. In their empirical research they found out that no wars take place without a transition between contenders.21 An important extension to power transition theory was made by Douglas Lemke in Regions of War and Peace (2002) in which he explained that the theory does not apply to global powers only, but to regional hierarchies as well. Lemke demonstrated that regional conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and Latin American emanate from parity the same way as it works in global hierarchy.22. 政治大 the status quo. As Douglas 立Lemke and Jacek Kugler explain in Parity and War (1996). Peace is maintained when the dominant state and most of the great powers support. ‧ 國. 學. If a small or middle power, or even a great power is not satisfied with the status quo, there is not so much it can do to change the situation. However, if a great power has accumulated enough power to challenge the dominant power and is not satisfied with. ‧. the status quo, meaning, it believes that it can gain more by changing current global. sit. y. Nat. order, than it might lead to a conflict and transition of power.23. al. er. io. According to empirical evidence collected by Kugler and Organski in their revision. n. of the original power transition theory published in The Handbook of War Studies. Ch. i Un. v. (1989), the rising power will attack only once it achieves parity with the dominant state,. engchi. and not before that.24 This explains why the Cold War did not become 'hot': the USSR never reached parity with the United States, and thus did not wage an attack. Unlike the USSR, China did overtake the United States in terms of GDP. China did not yet achieve economic parity with the United States, but it most likely will get there in the future. When that happens, it might also achieve military superiority. In case that. 20. Rapkin and Thompson "Power Transition, Challenge, and the (Re) Emergence of China",p.p. 315316. 21 Organski and Kugler, The War Ledger. 22 Douglas Lemke, Regions of War and Peace, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002). 23 Kugler and Lemke, ed., Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger, p. 21; Kugler and Organski, “The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation”, p.p. 171174. 24 Kugler and Organski, “The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation”, p.p. 182-183.. 21.

(31) happens and China and the United States are in parity, if they are both satisfied with their place in world hierarchy, peace will be maintained. Otherwise, there is a high risk of war.25. 2.1.2 Application of Power Transition Theory to the Rise of China Usually, power transition theorists perceive China's rise as dangerous, as it is expected to pose a threat to other states that enjoy current international order under the American hegemony and that a rising China, that they define as dissatisfied with its status within this world order, will use its increasing power to build a new order to its liking.26 In Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (2000) it is contended that. 政治大. China would seek to change the US-led status quo by means of war. 27 Given disputes between China and the US about issues of importance such as Taiwan, in Power. 立. Transition and China-US Conflicts Tammen and Kugler also perceive a major war. ‧ 國. 學. between the sides as likely.28. In Power Transition, Institutions, and China's Rise in East Asia: Theoretical. ‧. Expectations and Evidence (2007), Avery Goldstein analyzes China's policies in the. y. Nat. Asian sphere – the South China sea conflict, the Korean peninsula rivalry and the. sit. dispute over Taiwan and concludes that once China gains enough power it will use it to. n. al. er. io. force its interests in the region.29. Ch. i Un. v. As the journalist Fareed Zakaria reverberated in an op-ed in November 2014: "If. engchi. China uses its growing clout to keep asking countries to choose between the existing arrangements or new ones, it might create conditions for a new kind of Cold War in Asia. It will certainly help to undermine and destroy the current international order,. 25. Tammen and Kugler, "Power Transition and China-US Conflicts", p.p. 43-45. M. Taylor Fravel, " International Relations Theory and China's Rise: Assessing China's Potential for Territorial Expansion", in International Studies Review, 12 (2010): 505; Avery Goldstein, "Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence", in Journal of Strategic Studies, 30 (2010): p. 640. 27 Tammen, et al, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century, p. 21. 28 Tammen and Kugler, "Power Transition and China-US Conflicts", p. 50. 29 Goldstein, "Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence". 26. 22.

(32) which has been a platform on which peace and prosperity have flourished in Asia for seven decades."30 In Power Transition, Challenge and the (Re) Emergence of China (2003), David Rapkin and William Thompson list scenarios of aggressive moves by China, as part of its power transition: claiming by force territories in the south China Sea, India, Vietnam or even Taiwan; Preventing emergence of power like India and Japan or protection of communities of ethnic Chinese and Chinese business interests. In addition, China might interfere with US regional alliances and business interests; Challenge the rules of regional forums such as APEC or international organization such as the WTO and the norms of curbing proliferations of weapons of mass destruction. 31 As opposed to the above mentioned theorists, Steve Chan in China, the US and the. 政治大 transition theory and concludes 立 that power transition between China and the US will Power-Transition Theory: A Critique (2010) analyzes China's rise according to power. ‧ 國. 學. not occur in the next three decades and even doubts the likelihood of such a transition. Anyhow, Chan contends that China is unlikely to initiate a confrontation with the US and that if a power transition will occur, it will be rather peaceful, although he does. Nat. y. ‧. assess there is a likely chance of a conflict over Taiwan.32 .. sit. In China's Ascent: Power, Security and the Future of International Politics (2008). al. er. io. Jack S. Levy sides with Chan's assessment and agrees that power transition theorists. n. are right when they identify China's ascent as the leading geopolitical event of the. Ch. i Un. v. upcoming decades and that it will pose a threat to the US preponderance, but that it is. engchi. unlikely to challenge American security interests globally. Levy concludes that while China will only compromise specific security concerns, including in Africa, and erode the dominant American position in global economy, it will not deteriorate to a full scale conflict.33. Fareed Zakaria, "Fareed Zakaria: China’s Growing Clout", The Washington Post, November 13, 2014, accessed May 13th, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-chinasgrowing-clout/2014/11/13/fe0481f6-6b74-11e4-a31c-77759fc1eacc_story.html 31 Rapkin and Thompson "Power Transition, Challenge, and the (Re) Emergence of China", p.p. 326327. 32 Steve Chan, China, The U.S., and Power-Transition. Theory: A. Critique, (Routledge: Abingdon, 2008). 33 Jack, S. Levy, "Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China", in China's Ascent: Power, Security and the Future of International Politics, (New York: Cornell University Press), p. 32. 30. 23.

(33) 2.2 China's Foreign Relations 1949-2015 China gained the status of a great world power already in mid-20th century after World War II when it was given a permanent seat at the UNSC, but China's international status at that time was mostly rhetorical and honorary and it had to go through a long journey before gaining great international status in practice. The rise of China is one of the most talked about phenomenon of our time is, who many believe will eventually replace the US as an international superpower. China already became the largest economy in the world with its GDP surpassing that of the US and the largest trade partner of many developing countries. In this section I will review China's foreign policy from 1949 up to now and explain the changes it underwent over time.. 2.2.1 Foreign Policy in the Revolutionary Era 1949-1976. 政治大 In China's Foreign Relations (1998) Denny Roy explains that Mao's revolutionary 立. ‧ 國. 學. Marxist agenda was the main force behind China's foreign policy. Mao believed that China should be self-reliant as he was concerned that foreign trade and investments will. ‧. be used as means to infiltrate and weaken China from the inside. Thus, in the first two. sit. y. Nat. decades of the PRC, Mao led a policy of alienation from the West, especially the US. n. al. er. io. which was perceived as a hostile imperialist power.34. i Un. v. China was engaged in major conflicts with its neighbors and the West at the time.. Ch. engchi. Mao dispatched 200,000 soldiers to fight in the Korean War and waged attacks against the outlying islands of Taiwan throughout the 1950s. Under the same revolutionary spirit, China was promoting armed struggle during the 1960s in order to weaken the capitalist block by supporting revolutionary liberation movements in Western influenced countries.35 Nevertheless, China did not seek to alienate itself from the entire world, and saw great importance in third world countries as a source of support in its status, its claim. 34 35. Denny Roy, China's Foreign Relations (Boston: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1999), p.p. 14-15. Ibid, p.p. 17-25. 24.

(34) over Taiwan, its sovereignty over Tibet, potential to form allies against the West and establishment of economic relations. According to this line of thought, in the Bandung Asian – African conference that took place in 1954 in Indonesia, China tried to settle down conflicts and strengthen its diplomatic relations with some of these countries.36 For example, China and India smoothed over their relations by holding a joint statement and signing a trade and communications agreement. Under the statement, China detailed for the first time its five principles of foreign policy. These five principles are: . Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity;. . Mutual non-aggression;. . Peaceful coexistence.. ‧ 國. . 學. . 治政 Non-interference in each other's internal affairs; 大立 Equality and mutual benefit; The importance of these principles is evident, as since the Bandung conference,. ‧. these five principle3s re-appeared in official documents establishment of treaties China has signed with other countries.37. er. io. sit. y. Nat. diplomatic relations between China and more than 160 nations, and in bilateral. 2.2.2 Reform and Opening a up Starting in Late 1970s. n. iv l C n Mao's death marked the end h ofe the Cultural iRevolution and for the first time since ngch U. he took power, a leadership change in China. In China Rising: Geo-strategic Thrust and Diplomatic Engagement (2008) Suisheng Zhao states that following the upheavals and instability characterizing Mao's rule, such as the short-sighted "The Great Leap Forward", a process of opening up to the world and comprehensive economic reforms aiming at economic modernization and political stability took place.38. 36. Ibid, p.p. 20-22; Yuefeng Mao, "China's Interests and Strategy in the Middle East and the Arab World", in China and the Developing World: Beijing's Strategy for the Twenty - First Century, (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2007), p.p. 114-15. 37 “Backgrounder: Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence”, Xinhuanet, June 14, 2004, accessed May 16, 2015. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/08/content_2803638.htm 38 Suisheng Zhao, "China Rising: Geo-strategic Thrust and Diplomatic Engagement", in China- US Relations Transformed: Perspectives and Strategic Interactions, (New York: Rutledge, 2008), 20-21.. 25.