6 Developments During the Ma Administration and Conclusion
6.2 Recommendations and Conclusion
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89 has decided the outcome of many important military engagements throughout history.204 The purpose and importance of I&W is that it allows a defensive actor to ascertain whether or not an enemy is preparing to launch a military offensive. This allows the defensive country to muster its forces and potentially deter aggression.
The existence of a well-developed human surveillance network inside the Mainland would make it much more difficult for the PRC to conduct a surprise military operation against Taiwan. Large-scale military operations require massive logistical preparations and movement of people. Well placed ROC spies would likely be able to pick up on changes and developments in PLA operations. The more spies the ROC has, the more information it could acquire. Conversely, if the ROC has lost a substantial part of its HUMINT network then it could miss key
developments of a PLA mobilization. ROC analysts could fail to discover PRC intentions if they can’t gather enough pieces of the intelligence puzzle.
The loss of ROC HUMINT sources in the Mainland also adversely impacts Taiwan’s ability to conduct a wide spectrum of military analysis on the PLA. Human sources can provide vital intelligence on key military topics such as the development of new weapons systems, order of battle (OB) and military training and exercises. The value of human sources in this endeavor was revealed when Tsai Der-sheng , the direct of Taiwan’s NSB, claimed that ROC intelligence had a long-term focus on developing human sources in China to collect intelligence.205
6.2 Recommendations and Conclusion
As this study has shown, PRC HUMINT operations against Taiwan have evolved over the past two decades to take advantage of the growing human interaction between China and Taiwan. China now aggressively seeks to recruit spies among the Taiwanese population who live and reside in the PRC. It has also taken advantage of Taiwan’s open society to conduct a wide variety of HUMINT operations on the island.
The PRC’s emphasis on collecting intelligence on Taiwan’s military planning has also pushed it to expand its HUMINT operations in other countries, particularly the United States. The PRC’s
recruitment of two U.S. DOD officials who worked on Taiwan-related issues marks a significant
204 For further details see: Grabo, Cynthia, Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Plymouth UK: Scarecrow Press, 2010)
205 Rich Chang, “China aims new missile types at Taiwan, NSB says” Taipei Times, March 17, 2011
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90 achievement for PRC intelligence. Recruiting such high-level U.S. government spies was rare for the PRC. Additionally, the fact that these two individuals were not ethnic Chinese also shows that PRC intelligence is becoming more confident, and is expanding its targeting operations. Once again, the emphasis on collecting Taiwan related intelligence was the primary driver of this new development.
In light of the PRC’s continued aggressive HUMINT operations against the ROC, it is clear that Taiwan should do more to bolster its defenses against Chinese HUMINT activity. The Ma
Administration has taken a step in the right direction by including the NIA in the ROC’s intelligence bureaucracy, initiating deeper background checks for security personnel and drawing attention to the need for strengthened counter-intelligence. However, there is a great deal more that the administration could do to improve Taiwan’s defense, possible steps could include:
Work to improve the morale issues at ROC security agencies and continue to draw attention to the PRC espionage threat by issuing public statements which directly, or indirectly, call attention to the PRC’s activity. Strong statements on the part of ROC leadership could strengthen the sense of mission and purpose for Taiwan’s security personnel. It could also foster more scholarly and public awareness of this danger. As Taiwan citizens are also targets of PRC HUMINT
recruitment, it is important that the public have some level of awareness, and understanding of how important the danger is.
Expand and deepen security training for ROC government agencies, and military installations, in sensitive areas. As this study has pointed out, physical security at ROC military installations has sometimes been insufficient. As the case of Ma Zong-fei illustrates, even a supposed PRC tourist can gain access to a computer warfare center.206 By initiating relatively simple security measures, these types of problems can be avoided or at least reduced.
Expand the security background check program to include personnel who work in sensitive areas outside of the military and security bureaucracy. Security shortfalls still exist in organizations such as the Legislative Yuan. The fact that a PRC citizen could gain employment as a legislative assistant to a legislature, one who sits on the Foreign and National Defense Committee, is unimaginable. The Legislative Yuan still does not require background checks for legislative
206 Appendix 2, Case 2009-5
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91 assistants.207 Taiwan should adopt security measures which are similar to other democracies, such as the United States, and require that all legislative assistants undergo a background investigation.
Increase the budget for counter-intelligence and increase the number of personnel dedicated to counter-intelligence and security. The increasing number of PRC residents and visitors to Taiwan appears to be placing a strain on the security organizations.208 Although sensitive details of the security budget are guarded, it is likely that Taiwan is not providing adequate funding for counter-intelligence and security in general. The Ma Administration has not raised the military budget. Given its focus on economic affairs and cross-strait relations, the budget for counter-intelligence and security has likely taken a back seat to other issues.
Ensure that all of the ROC’s governmental bodies are fully participating in intelligence-related matters. Include the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) to the ROC Intelligence Community, or at least ensure that the MAC has sufficient input into intelligence matters. Increase the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ involvement in the intelligence community.
The information and insights in this study are only a first step towards a better understanding of PRC HUMINT operations against Taiwan, and in other countries. A great deal of additional study on this issue could be undertaken, especially by Taiwanese researchers.209 One such area for further study is how the PRC recruits, and interacts, with Taiwanese who reside in, or frequently travel to the PRC.
During the course of this research, one Taiwanese academic revealed that several PRC think tanks had invited him on all-expense paid visits to the Mainland in return for his willingness to discuss
Taiwan’s political and international relations.210 In his view, it was common for Taiwanese academics to receive this type of invitation to PRC think tanks. It appears that PRC researchers were interested in the views, and relationships between, prominent Taiwanese scholars who had friends, or had served in Taiwan’s government. Although this information may not be classified, it likely provides the PRC with important insight into the workings of Taiwan’s political establishment. PRC think tanks which conduct
207 Appendix 1, Interview 10
208 The 2010 incident involving an MJIB agent who deleted profiles of Mainland residents living in Taiwan suggests that the MJIB is understaffed to deal with the problem. (Chang, Rich “MJIB indicted for deleting profiles of PRC officials” Taipei Times, October 5, 2010)
209 During the course of this research, the author found that some Taiwanese individuals who had experience in the PRC were simply afraid to discuss the issue. Additionally, one former ROC military officer even concluded that this research was being sponsored by U.S. government intelligence agencies.
210 Appendix 1, Interview 8
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92 research on Taiwan are known to have links the MSS.211 The connection between PRC think tanks and Taiwanese scholars would be one area for additional study and it would likely reveal a great deal on how the PRC collects information on Taiwan’s government.
Another potential area for additional study would be to examine how the Taiwan Affairs Offices in Mainland China handle important Taiwanese. Given that the Taiwan Affairs Offices have a great deal of interaction with Taiwanese, it is likely that they play an important role in assessing Taiwanese individuals, and recruiting spies.212 An interview based research effort could reveal a great deal about these
organizations.
As the PRC continues to become more influential, and as its foreign interests increase, it is likely to increase its espionage activity around the globe. Taiwan is at the forefront of the PRC’s HUMINT targets so new developments and initiatives on the part of Chinese intelligence agencies will first appear against Taiwan. For this reason, further study of PRC HUMINT activity against Taiwan will not only increase Taiwan’s defenses, it will also provide other security scholars with valuable insight into the PRC’s HUMINT capability and possible new strategies and tactics.
211 Jane’s pg. 38
212 In 2011, Taiwanese software engineer Lai Kun-jie was pressured by the director of the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office to spy against Taiwan. (Appendix 2, Case 2011-2)
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