世代分析在社會科學中之應用
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(3) 1!tft~HJf~;f±*~.,*,z..m. 5:WJ. 5. 1920 -1924~1¥J~~ • ~ft!!1r~16-. ~~fiM$I¥J~OO~ffl~I¥J'~1:E"~fiM~I¥J~OO~~~. 1945~. A9. (. 1i~1tt. ). ~ft!!1r~21. -. 25~. 0. m=fm~~nEi'ifM~j(ff!. ( glGM5t:5&ff!) ·. N[J~gifH1f- fitlo. i3"J~1:E~~.~fWJt!t1~1:E~1i~Ib'j~. {EJ • ~*~1!tEi'ifFa'jPfT1~Z~*~~. J:)j>Rffl~f~*~*~1!t. .om-mu~t!t~5&ff!·~m1:E~~:£!t!~~mM5t:~~~. ( Multi. • {S~"~armMFa'jJ!Ut~1§~. ~~ ~ ~ £1ft1Jii -JLf~* ~ * ~1!t i3"J. .'.~~I¥Jt!t~:5t~.L·~~~~Lmml¥J~OO~ffl~. 5ection survey data). A9 • ~~~nl¥Jt!t1~5&ff! J:.J r#~~ -. -fWJ~If-fFa'jl¥Jm~LI¥J~1~. f~I¥J:5tWf.~. 0. B~. • 1S~.~~l¥Jliff9Gff!ffl. BJ30. -,. lical time). N[J ~ arm ; ~ ft\G. ;. (2) ~ 5t: ~ Fa'j. (3)t!t1~. ( Cohort). ( Intersectibn of biographical. ~-fWJ~i$1¥Jt!t1~:5tfJT~. g\(;1ifWJt!t1~. ( cohort. • :5tJ1UJ:.J C1¥U c5*1~. rtt~~LI¥J-WfAtf~g~~-fWJt!t. ~.~... (Age Effect). ~-JI¥J:1l*4Z:5tft\G-OO~armM'~~.iliml¥Jm$~. :If-f Fa'j lJ.~ I¥J iU:5t L;@ m :5t ~ r:>7U ~ :*4.!&~1¥J~1~. ~.MI¥JZ:5t-B,tIt~mz~~arm5&ff!gIG~~5&ff!(~i~. Effect). ~:t~OOA~:£!t!~Fa'jLI¥J2)(~ , ~M. '. A~~l~. Jt1~miBi$~U. ,. A~~IP'&~ft,~~. f1mAI¥J~:£!t!W)G\:£!t![Z;J**~. :;;r--. ~5t:Ei'if Fa'j. 1990 C5 C4 C3. fEl~N[Jft\G~t!t1~. ~jf!w'~- LI¥J:1l*4. ·. ~~n~:£!t!. j:iH '. 0. ,. ( ~arml¥J ) ~ff! • ~:tl§. • ft\G~ ,. 0. ft\G~. .¥~ffrr.fr[Z;J*:nOO. ~fm~.;@m~"~Fa'j. ,. ,. ( hypothetical ~=. '. fD":t-[g~1¥J. .. 1980 40 45. ,. '. A~. ' fr¥B5&**/J\ '. '5l:IDJ~~gifH~ 0. (~=. dataHj~J~-OO~~I¥J~.5&ff!. 1970 40 45. tlo51H~. ~UA~*~M. W~F~~1=r~1J}. 20-29 30-39. 0. ffi] ~~fWJA~~. ~ft~~~~• •~~~.~.. (~.). ~iP. )G\~ft\G~······~. 7t~Ji}~~-~fiM~tf~;Jr:E~ilif§1~1¥J~f!. Ilm.~~. ,. J:.Jl?d~l~arm1*~ffiJ3I~1¥J. MM~fWJAMM*~,~~.I¥J~.. ~-PfT~~1¥.1. • tlt1r~1:E~jf!W.t!t1~:5tfJT~Ei'if~\~ii. ,. ~~~:£!t!fD)G\:£!t!LI¥J~1~~W~5t:If-fFa'j~1m. 1P'~~ft,~. tft*~Ji.~1iI. ~ff!mAI¥Jft\G~. • ~fWJAl¥JmV}tgIG1=r~lf~T~.5&*. ~f~$-5Efr~~1¥J. 1980 C4 C3 C2. fm5&ff!~-~W~I¥JIDl;. 0. 0. 1990 40 45. 0. ,. J J:.J.
(4) 40-49 50 59 60-69. tt. 50 55 60 : pff RJ].Z~~~ B)j-.l:t. 50 55 60. mf~5&H!. 50 55. mf~5&~~~\Hl@M*~~~. 0. ~~fPJ~.. 60. ~fm5&~1:Ejqf-mf-1. 0. 1~¥ -m f~:ftj(!=Fcp 1:E~Jtl;~1'i ~ I'r. 0. ~!=FJ::t~qW~~J].m2¥:.*. =,,~JtIJ~JJI (~-)~.~~)j-~~OO~~q~~,~m.mm~m. 1$W~~qra'~~~)j--3&. '. fJt1r'mz~qM5&JJ!. 0. ~fm5&ff!. ~~~~~~~~qffi~~~m*M~$~~~'~fmqM~ ~~~~W~~~'1')j-~~~m~~~~~w,m*~~. 0. 131. I¥]fmJA ' ft!!'rr'E8~*~MfEljqf~MJ! ~. ,. ,FifftJ-J:iJ§g~J].mrsJjqf1'i'l1:. .l:t~~. ,. gt~~J].B)j~~2¥:.. {rm$~~mf~5&~~1JU. ~Im. 5X " Affrf.WJ~f.:tpff~1:Ejqf-qra'~~~~E"J~WJ~W~~-5Ef~. 0. f1. 0. [. 0. ~{-t~~J.J1l~t. NE"J~.o~~:mw*."~."~1t*¥$~~~~f.:tm ~~~jqf*~M~1mJA. '. ~~fEl~f~N~~.. 0. f.:t~~nE"JqW3. ~j(* ' 1iH~~~M~~4ifJJ&~pff~E"J~.~-f~E"J .~~E"Jm~Wm&llim~.E"J~n5&*o ~RJ].-1mJ$~~~M~j(~. ~=. 0. 1B~'. (~-)~~.B. 0. ~ft~~~~• •~~~m~.. (4ifJ) 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 -49 50 - 59 60 69. 1970 50 60 70 80 90 III : ,Fiff 13D]'ZJ!x:~~ B)j-J::t. 1m ~ z' I mf~)j-ffT J :Y]::1F. W!J~~1'T4f)j-. (4ifJ) 20-29 30-39 40-49 50- 59 60-69. 1970 70 70 70 70 70. tt : pff 13D]'Z~~~B)j-.l:t. 1980 60 60 60 60 60. ~~ifDJ::t®t~ *-'1- ~ 7J A. 1990 50 50 50 50 50. Je ) ifDmf~5&~. ). iff (£R1i). , )j-5]UtJ- C1 ~U. 0. 1:E-*W!J*f~*~CP. f~. 0. ~~2¥:.lliJ]'~1;].1$~mftfj~(!=F~.U)j--3&. ,. r)iU~tJ-1!~. ~ J].~. *-'I-~J;! ~. 1-1 " ifD ~ jf~ ~ - fm AAt B. £R. c5*f~. f.:t~*,*~E"J-!=FA~.~jqf-1mJi!t. '. * ~ §g. *0. 0. ~.*-'I-~)j-~1i {mJmf~. 0. '. 17U ' mm f~ ( cohorts) ifD ~ M (. _ " i!:!::ft~JJI ( Cohort Effect) (~-. 0. ~1r'mz~. ( cross. cohort)~2¥:.. 0. 1JU$ZO '. 1.&B)j~J;!~m~4~~~mf~ m~*~rsJ. '. ~ f~. (. m. m. .§:~3. 1B~1:E~jf~~)(:jf~~1'l.
(5) ·1iM. o 5. o. 1!tft~HJi:t£ti:*.... .pz..J.II. 50 55. 60. 1!t1~)(j(~. 50. 55. i:!t1~)(j(ff!gt~)fiU~~~~~~~Htf:I¥J-!¥A. 0. ~~[QJ~.. 60. 0. 1J9(lt¥.tt.!li5tEK¥fi/11tmi.fJitf:!E:~*. iIG-=:.f1m~~~fb'Jl6 ' E&~tf:!:mI¥-J~. ~1rmA. • fiJT~¥U. ~fm5&ff!:(£[Q1-i:!t1~1tRmI¥JA'i!it$f§'i!ittf~. f~~ -i:!t{~1tR!¥$:(£~Jtl:;~Jt LI¥Jf§JJttHHr'&1. ;/:. 0. 0. ¥U~D. '. 7. •~. · 18 ~:(£~i:!t1~. [Q1.~~~~ 5t.~i:!t1~. • ft!!:(MEE~~~f§[Q1l¥JiflR$1tf: ' f;t1fftiULt ' ifr±Wr!&*. &'~1MmZp'£ffifWJ5&~o~m5&H!. .~ • fiJT pXJ:jJijgmffJitf:! r'&1 f§J1t'l'~E 18 ~!Jit~ftl1~¥~ 5t.~i:!t1~1tR!¥. tl¥-Jm:;k~R${tf:~rm ' ~mffifWJ~. Jt!li5tEK¥ '. !1:J3(~~IB1t~~~.'m:;kl¥-J~. ftm~~1¥Ji:!t1~)(j(ff!~{jU. 0. fM1~~~~I¥-J~~~IB~~-JEfj. gt1t~.fJi~mil¥JE:~. ~~. 0. f1~~nl¥-JffifJt§. lM~m~I¥-J~W~-f~1¥-J {8~., 0. :f,~I¥-J~n5&*. 0. (~=) P~~~~. o. JSt• • •1i!JJlm¥;JtfJ~.. J ~P~J1tf[mElX~~.fJi. ~ft~~m.• •~~~;JtfJ~.. ~1!f~1=r~fJ). 1970 50 60 70 80 90 at : PfT ~.fJiZIX~~B 7t.tt.. 1980 40 50 60 70 80. (~&f5). 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69. E~1=r~1J}. 1980 60. 60 60 60 60. (~[9. 0. ~ , ~~ " Jt1t:;k~1ftJ~IB~*f1FJT ~f§'i!itflIU~I¥-J~.. 0. 1990. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 0. Ms Z' I i:!t1~7tfJT J ML:JF-flnJ~§t7tfJT1J¥* • '2:~--fm 1990. 50. 50. 50. 50. 50. ~:@.fD.tt.!li5t j;f *41¥J15 A. •. *. fi1 ijg;mlit m7t t±:\ ~ It ' EK¥ Wj ( ~. ~)~i:!tR~ff!°~~~~ • • ~5~~I¥J • • ~ffl.*~. fjU ' ffli:!t 1~ ( cohorts) fD EK¥.Wj ( periods) ~ 3Z 7t fJT fiJT 1~ z *S. *0 W(~liJ~ml¥Jj;f~mi~t±:\ • • ~5~~:(£WM'.. t). .'~.~~~ • • • I¥J~ffl.*L'_~.~~i:!tR. l f1m tj:t{i; • 7t J3U J.-~ C1 ¥U C5 3[<: 1~. ( cross. t~ fJitl:l¥-J-tW A IB Ji3~[qJ -f1mt!t. 1N~mi~t±:\!li5t~~1¥Ji:!t1~. t1i;~tWl¥-J.lU7t-3& • ~1Mmz~. ffl~~!li5tr'&1 • 18 ~:(£.if~!&if~L fi[J*Ji!.~mil¥Ji:!t1~E:~. cohort)I¥JE:~. 0. {jU~D. '. gt~~~~*f\;fW&Jf~.:ftIffiJ s. .. ( ~~31~~P~1&t±:\~:1§" ) :1t• •~ 0. B¥J.
(6) .tt~m*~E: ( m.Bf!iUi3t ) 8"J~~ , !Jt1r'~JJi1:Em~zi3t ' ~ -=.flID~~rr=u-i!t{i;8"J~ , ~¥[UJUD1J{1ftH~m~*~mt:iif~ ffij 1tff~8"Jr&ff~ , i:fl.:f!fmflIDi!t{i;8"Jf~m~*¥JJi~D1JDI¥JFtI~ , ~. ji*4**~1f.~5&H!fD~Wl5&H!~~ .rBDfJiIlTOOji*4~ , ~~q~~.i ~ J ' ~~~=;m~)(H!r:pl¥JuM-;m. ~~7rr=u-i!t{i; ( within cohort)8"J~M5&ff!. = . !ti-1!t{-t16-~• •tllJiE ( panel. 0. 0. ~1i 1!t{-t~.~[]~JJJ~JJlfi.II~Jfi.i~Z" ¥~~ i!i:{~. ~~20ft:PJM~ ~~21 - 31ft:!£ ~~31- 40ft:!£ ~~41 - 50ft:!£. ~~51ft:PJ~!£. H~. 1985 3.37 2.90 2.09 1.69 1.50 197.84. ***. tt:. 1.56* 1.64 93.85. 0. 1990 3.48 3.40 2.87* * * 2.31* * * 1.88* * *. 70.22 69.6. ***. ~f~~{~{~~~II1Y!miJii'i*~~. 1985 3.58 3.44 3.17 2.77 2.26. ***. ~UHf:. *:m.:fJi~l!t. .~. /JHi. 1990 3.00* 3.03 1.87* •. ili;m*~~~t1J~~t~~tt-t.. ***. 1985 1.39 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.36 2.15 n.s.. 45B~~*~~ru~~~8"J{jlJr. ji*4 ( panel. 5&.H! ' >,*~~Om-@It!t{i;JIX:~ I¥J~ ijgltSlff.%*~Jfl~1il~ I¥JJflJl::-W~~ Ife. * P< .05, * * P< .01 * * *. AJlt~" ( Cohort size)~ItSl~frm. i¥J~tgJflf§!."~fl&.tt~ , *~~1!. 0. ~~~. data)!.9(;~f§rr=uf~::$:8"Jm:fJi~:1If. data)1§'~1:lJ .r:)m*~1'Tt!t{-'\.:5t;fJT. ~Wj~j(ff!/f:ff1:E. '. cohort)¥i=1tR.tt~. g\(;~:ff1:Erm'§'~8~D~. 0. M:JijHr.J~i. .tional design) :f*ffl ~1Bt 13k] *lIlT jf*4Ji ~ 13k ~tffl¥J1J~ , 1tSl~'8l¥Jjf*4~~j. li:tfmiiff~~~t1JA~1~:f*m-*fJillT1.IDJi~I¥J~E:jf*,,-. ~fmjf*4~iiff~~~fHt1I~:E!!.fD~{i1!.fti:~*-®~. 16-jJ.i ~1Ji. sectional design) tE ~;mt!t {-'\.:5t ffl. 0. - "' ¥jRl• •iliiiM ( single - cross - sectional design). ( synthetic. i i.. ~JIX:I¥J ' ~~Jfl~-W~fDlfrr.Wr~tj. ::$:Jt#~fr*trf37U~~ J'fHl'9lZ!3fm. m1f.~JWl&:5tff.%~i';-t!t{i;. {J. trism), gt~t~. -i!t1i;pJT ¥JJi8"J:. 1.29 2.21 n.s.. =... flillT1.IDJ'if4 ( cross - sectional. 0. Riley PJTt~ Wi 8"J I i!t {-'\.::$: 1ft ~ ~ .. ~,~ft~~~~~~M~.~~.. '. Newcomb(1967)1¥J I. fr~~J3t*~fD Wolfgang, Figlio, f[. 1990 1.30 1.27 1.18* ** 1.25*. P<.OOI. structure):f!fqH~fm. 0. 0. '. :f*ffl. : 1f.~5&ff!fD. 11t~iiff~~EJ.r:)~. ~~~JWI¥J~~~~i!t~~ff!o1B~-~rm~'mY:f!fm~~. .l:8"J{-'\. ~ '\1:.tt. ~ ~ it. 0. tE rr=u _.. panell¥J~~t-f~1'lfavciffiSk]t!t{i;. f~5t:fJT ' ~=*l¥JtffJ1B;~ : pJT~2 :1Ifji*4m~~. 0. R~~~tt-t[qJ. ~ Fa' ~tipJT1$: 1¥J1il jL f~::$:fJiIfTOO ~.
(7) iJll. 'titft~HJT«*-f:.f>f •. ¥J~~. , ft1f"J~Uw.:tEm~Z1rt ' 1f. ~IUafO)Jal~m!M::XEl)j.;I:ft~. 0. ¥J1~m!M::X~Jj!EI)j.1JDS"JMI!~. , :ij. lort) S"J!F-fM~H!. fffl. .11. * *** *** .=lIt: * P< .05, * * P< .01. n.s.. J. '3i:jt~=f.m~j(~cpS"JUM-:m!. ='... 0. Riley pJT:f~mS"J r. {S ~~;f~S"Jii*47ti'JTWr~3&. 0. tl:t1~*{.ll~~. J (Fallacy of cohort - cen. trism), Jtt~:j:~~-tl:t1~pJT J~H~!S"J~:I:jg"~m~~~mS"Jif.1f1 5&JJ! • 7JK1'~a~-1[9Jtl:t1~pJ(;~S"J~jgMf~ (life course), iffSQ]". ~pJ(;S"J. 7t i'fT Q]" m S"J jf *4 *S ff4 ( data m€~ifB~. data) ~~ i'§ rqr fIt<$: S"Jm fj[~ffll1!f. j~1'Ttl:t1~7ti'fT. Figlio, fO Sellin (1972) S"J Jt:lJjlG:~3'['1: &. if:38~ll{ft1iff3i:~[J~$~S"J11Ur. ( Cohort. size)~[:t9*ffif:fFl'rqr. l¥J~r1I~f~"~1i'R./:t~. 0. ( panel design of single cohort). Newcomb( 1967) S"J Bennington ~~:tc~E!&mifd:. "'~JJr 1iff3i:fO Wolfgang.. AJ5z37~. fr*gT}U$X'ffi'mS"Jlmf.m. 0. fjg[:t9~*~M~~!f,fS"J~9:.~~!PUd:Wrliam. ***. ,i1*4te.. I. ~. *:mfj[~1!F. 1985> 1990 1.39 1.30 1.31 1.27 1.32 1.18* *. 1.31 1.25' 1.36 1.29 2.15 2.21 n.s.. • pJT .e)Jiff3i:~ R:fF. ~f.m1iff3i:~gt :1J:a:~:f~~tttt~ -tl:t1~lt~mz f§ rqr f~:2fi:: 1i'& ~. mil. 1985 1990 3.58 3.48 3.44 3.40 3.17 2.87* * * 2.77 2.31 * * * 2.26 1.88' •• 70.22 69.6. 9. • • • ~!ID.fl!F-f'~'ffi'* • • mffift.~S"JrMm~~ -1!t{-t~ixli.tJIJ.. 0. j~JlIfi.lI1Em.ixz~.. 10. iU4*{;£~if.if1~ff!fOffifWl~j(H!~::a1'1¥tE. .:pzBlJ¥.l. - cross - sectional design). 0. tlO*l'~{rt.tl:t{~. • 1iff3i:~m€$1it~WM;;"~3i:jt~if.1f1. . ~~M.R~:~-UOffd:WrliampJT~pJ(;S"J. = ,~j1t • • iBi.~".MJ~~. (. 0. multi - wave cross - sec. tional design) tRm37.S"J;fJi!ifjf*4JlmS"J~§t. sectional. 0. • ~~~~~i!t1~S"J. ( multi - wave cross. design):tE;frf.mtl:t{~7ti'JTS"J1iff3i:~§tcp. • Q]" .e.AIDl~J:t. .~S"J:1J:a:'~~BS"Jii*4~ff4~~R~tt'ffifHtEAD*sff4. ~ffl-::X.IiT!IDJlmS"J~1!t~*4. •. kS"JR~tt~~~~°:tErqr-mmcpM~~~.*l'Wr.. ynthetic cohort) 1I}1i'&Jt$X f;,f: m. panel S"J~§t-t~~~~S"Jtl:t1~. !fOlt=1ift{;£mt*ffl1~. R7tm·a*S"J~.~:ffi.z~.a&·Q]"~~mS"Jffd:Wr~. 0. i__§J~ B ~mlQ: ~. 0. 0. : 1f.1f1~JJiUO. J1:tffif1iff~~ Q]" j;)J~. {S ~-~ffif j3 '{NY l":fJj!J!)G f¥J. i!fj(*4~a37. 0. 0. ffif Hf;,f:~~f.m.1BI-*sff41i'&tl:t. R~~~t~rqr--@Jmlt!fm. " f§rqrr~~1m " tEl'rqr. ~~~ffi.S"J.~.*.~OO.1BI-,~~~ • •m*~~tl:tR.
(8) :5t;fJTrt-lf~*. 0. ~m~.~~~m~tt«:5t;fJTrt-l~T~~,~~~~~m. . rt-l~flti~M 7t~oWit&~if.1t. 0. '. @~ , ~.rt-l~fl~mili:Y1~~~1ft€~r&. . . tttt . .. ~~:M5&ff!rt-l.lm. dentification){JJfif¥tE ; ;tt* '. @.j*~1!trt-lf~*I1t:Y1/fm0. fJrr~o. *~flr:p60~fJ-.l:tt«Al1tf61.1.VJ\J:tf7a. '. 3§UT1~mWo'i1*~. '. 1H~. 0. Ez{j~~~rt-lF'",~~. El3~~fl* §/frqJf~*. ,. '. 1lf~IJ~. ~. , ft f**~fl60JliitfJ-.l:tt{-~ rt-l.A.I1t:l1t1JD. ~1ft€i:t~~4iArt-l~~ra~~~'~. ~\~~#~-=~cp*--W=. tE$5t£P:Mrt-l~. ,. ~. :utf~. ,. '. '. rt-l*Ji,ij!G~±a9c5l:~i:2. fi~W 3§Utt. *~. ='~JJl1i~. W~~*a9Wo'i1*~fl. fB~m. panel data ~ttt«:5t;fJTrt-l~r&~T~*mt~. $r'SJ . . 1~.~fflF~~f~*1lt~~£J1HH~~'~z9i ' g-fmJ~~ El3~~IDJ~if.~rt-l:f:tt*~ft. '. if.~rt-li!t{~iliffl2§%LiTIiAI1t~j/' T~~iTIi~mili. vey. i:2.~~J-m ANOVA ~~fj(7. Uff~~ft~?fftltt{~ pgWG~tt{~1¥J. 1. f;f~~-OOtt{~:5tffTJfUl!. .~~*~OO~~~tttt~rt-lE~·~EzOOA~:Mrt-l~NWti. :. 0. 3. El3~~frmi!tf~rt-l*JifflG~j:. ( panel design of multiple co. if.IflMfD~~1f~l2§*l&:5t~g,fmJi!ttt. ~. l[t~~. :utf~~£\*~*~Lf~-~61Y-J~~. ~~fiff~~Bt:n5:\Jl~:t~~~;f§I8J~**mfJt~1:!flY-Jli:.lSt. 0. '. S1~4i*~*4!&~~rt-ltmf~~m. l2§ll:t~i:tm~lHJ~fmJA~&. horts). ~z,,~. ~M5&@. 2. ~O*iiff:5'G~ ~~~!U rt-l~i!. 0. 1m ' ~-m:ft.f6J.*JlIU'1J1If. ... . Jt~W1J~ , #~~i*f~-=frml2§*. ,. ~ ~~ rt-lZP::!$]BiP:ttf~. 55)!'\ '. 1. El3~if.Ifl~j(ff!. ( APe effects i. ~-f~*cp~i!tttfflG~rt-l*JifflGili/fZfS:!$]. , mf6.ttfJtlt!!:k:ttf. -'~jtzlUl. §. ~fflGif.~~f-ta9~im 0. l2§ll:t '. 0. :fjJ.tl;;·*:1f~tf;fll:t.. rotating panel survey design,f[]split panel sur. design ~~~t ( Duncan & Kahan,. OO~3§Urt-l~~~. ; :Ii .. 1987) .IDm~-$ffi....t. .'.. ~if.Ifl ~. ,. ... ~~. ... i!tf~-=~r~,n1§. m~)1'\-=OOl2§**~1ji@M. S1~.l2§*cp. 2.ll:t)1'\- ,. ,. :5'Gjtff!~Ij~fQ]~. Uff:5'G~fu ~ .L-:M~tt,. 1§-$t~ra~*lftI¥JE~. , ~1~~if.1. Mit1i€~:r1il¥JjJA*&!I;~ , WG~ m:. . ~*' ~J-1~j/';tt'J¥ID~Lt.rt-ll~n. 0. 3. tt{~rt-l.U:5t~J::t-frm{~ftH. 1-"\1¥J,ij!Gffi!pJT ~ rqJ *~}rr BkJf§1J;.Z*~,~~.
(9) 1!!:ft~HJf~tf:.,*•. .Zi:WJ. :{~7ttlTI'B17IjT:lfi~ , ~~EJjt~ffl. :~I'Bj{*4;fiSff4-tl?.M;:;JF~1m~".6 ' §. - ... ~j!Zllta. 1. E81D'~~5&H!. X ' ~::x ~~l¥Jflt2f;;:'tHfi: ~~ -:- ' f!K.tft~ZP::t$] -wrj~o ' TI:~!f!W:iI'BW1!J. jt.~.1J~. rr5flVJ\ttf7U ' JU7"{~W:iWi'iJ~ffif ' /t9. ~~IJ~o. ,. ... ~M~jcH!=~ra'~R*tt. ' pjffJ.1:E)iim. ff~1m$re = frmlZ9*I~~IlA~7C~1Jf1!1.ACP. &;\~ff~ - ~CP-=*-W =. '. 7i- ' EB~j{*4*§~~.* ' tff~. ~. :S'~ , l2§j/:t1m$m~IUJ~1ImAtL~~. 1¥J~~::xj{~!&~~l¥JtlBf~~~~~-3&. , t!1"'6JfJ.m. ANOVA ~:WIX7tiffT*~1j-. m:~~~\:;Ji~(ftWf§7-~r!iI¥J~~.tt*. 0. 3. E8~~frmi!t{~I¥J*J3.glG~~~1t. '. design of multiple co. '. g~fIr!Ii!tft ' ¥j~~::XI'B~~j{*-l. 1¥J*J3.ffl(;~~I¥JG)(~t!1fr~.$Ui!t{~~jc*. EJf1I§1iff~~1:E~1j. 17IJ~O:3lt~~C~. ~1:f.~. ~ffl:tm{~ £Z'~ Z Y'i- ' ~ - 11m ~ ".6. ~. :11:: ' ~glG~@a-9i!tft({(J~~ ; l1i .. 1¥J~.rzg*CP. l2§j/:t ' 1j.!tt;*~ittMlft~. l survey design, ID split panel sur Kalton, 1987), IDm~-t:mffi L. , IZ9mi!t{i;. 0. 1. f;f1D'm-OOi!tf~7tiffT1ifHml¥J129H!z£§:. fM(i!t{~7ttJTl'B~".6~ 7" .*mE~. 0. , f9l!fJtj:. =, ~JJI~. J&.~ , PJ.l5tOOA~Ml'BrwJ3tWfJ. :~y. mra' I¥J ~. {S~~\~~DI$U. ,. m:~~1:E*ii!Ui!t{~ V3~~i!t{i;I¥J5&*~~\~Ji~/J\JC.\. ~t§~;f~*m~Wi'iJ~I'Bj{*4 ' 1t(OO. ,. j/:t~$*~ffifijzf6:~*#CJE~jtff~f!'IJ. 2. tlo 51Hiff ~ 11f ~ *~U I¥J ~ i!t 1~ 7t iffT ~ CP;fr fIr!I *IE. ~*j{*460~PJ.Li!t{~I'BA~:tftjJD. Iff ( panel. 11. ... "tlt{-e~*JiPJiiA¥IJIY-J.fM:&~JJlZm:. JfF-JWl~D!I'BJifU~ ( APe effects i. 0. .:pz.m. ,. . . Jff:J: . .. 2.JttY'i- '. m#CI¥J1JA~1~. i!t{~.=:.~ra'1j-11m~&~5&*1¥J. m~)i.=OOI2§**~1j-:Umf$7ttfT~DEJ. ,. ,. ~jtH!~1jM;1!'IJ~. ,. 0. '. ~M'-=flmt§Ri&*. ~um*~ffifijZf6:~. liff~~tftEJfJ.ff:ltlt{i;7ttfT~-*tfj*~. ~*lEf~ra'7d'll¥J&.:W. '. ~f3tff~1:f.jfJ. ~f3tff~~~1j. . . Jff:J: . .. ,. d. *;f~-T. tlt{i;~~.l29*m. ~~~~I'B1JA*~~'~~ffl~~~~*~~L~-~~.. 1t9* '. fJ.~~Y~$'J¥~LI¥J[2EI~lE. 0. 3. tlt{i;I¥JJU7ttlT.tt-1rmf-\:ffl~J! 1-\:1¥Jffl(;~pfT~~*~J1iHl"Jt§1l;JJf~'!§~. ... '. '2{i;~lf.1D'[P]-1Imtlt. Jf£~¥ftf. ... ~mt~~~I¥J*,f!l.
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(11) 1!tft~HJT:e*-f:...... liM. IErf.&'8"Jm~~JJi. • 17~tm • zp::!$]~~. ;J.f~ • ff! 'M 7t*FJAj~ .ttl; OO:f.&'8"Jm~ ~1~~ft!!fiU*~m¥~8"JM~~JJi. 0. ~~mmH/alf~A. *. iR5Em A. ffi ... 13. 13. • ~~~Q]"~g1~;f.tH~1J!~&*flFa~~~I~Jm. 0. Jff§ij~B~. t) T fF*U~ J:) -flm.1JUmt~~1'F~~~8"Ji::f:t1~7tfJf z1Ji*.. ~JU. ~~~.o. Z 1& • I'iJ J:J-7t#~~.ttl;Ji~-+JJDJ:J-~)1U. 1 . J:J.I § jllJ 1J~. ·JJi~~[tg*8"JfF m. 0. 17~~oJ:). ( ~A ). (~. ¥fJ!-f/al~ImJjj~~&~~~~R!ftffr:p~~A.~. ~ 8"J~f/alt!H~:e:[qI-flSJ1f.~~J:E:~. -g-~8"Ji::f:tf~7tifJT~. ~3<")(ff!. ttYi- • 1:E ( ~~ ) ~ • ~. ff!m~gt7tfJf. 0. ~rtu r§J. • ~~{N~.8"J~W:J3<")(ff!. B-9-tit1~:5tifJT~. 0. fff8"J~~§7'Ggt~~ m lliI 7J'~~)1U. J:)ft£.8"J*~i!t1~ pg. ~~~*Q]" J:)7tR!mllil~*~ff~. ~~[qIB-9i!t1~ra9. 0. 1rjt!1Q]"J:)~~U. J\). i*:E-r~JJi. B-9~A. • ~~.R~~~~J!8"JBf1-1t'§UJ! • :Yt&~. §7t • ~1rH~,~m~Ar:p8"JJi~ • "1tRX:~~ (~-t) gt~~~"1tB-9-tit1~f1-fJf~. • ~1MQ]". ( intra cohort) B-9~1t ' t!11'iJ J:)ft£~B-9*. ( inter. cohort)~1t. 0. J1:tYi- • :tE. (~-t) r:p~. • ~r:pj{:¥4I'iJflJ mmmfEl~B-91JA~1J!RX:. (~. 0. • *:f!I!fJf~. ~~§~B-91JA·:e:J1:t~$~1rjQ]"~.m·~1f..B-9~OO. • ~ffl~~F~t:t&'1LiIJ. -tit f~:tE~J=jU'M~.Kl: B-9~J!"~fli!.J3t~* '. ~~ 8"J-frmi!t1~:tEJ1t. l:.~~ft!!JiWl.~8"Jfti:~. ~Q]"~g8"JmA. ~~i1H!~jfE~i:l1~"~. 0. ( competing models) .~*~A:5tfJf~ • I'iJ J:)7tm~ffiU ~. tf:!z.m. • -tit1~a9&i7t1'iJJ:)~+1f. " ~~. ~-tit1~1U7t tiT 7. Z i& • J1tt r:tJ J:)~fJ. a: ~ ( COI:Jl'peting model) r:p . ~j!;. ~. ,. • {B~m!11:::Yt~~o~1f..B-9i::f:t1~~. §mU1JA~~J1UmfD1PimU. '. 1~::ff~gtf1-fJfB-9~illf. 0. ~. 0. . 2. Jf.Ittf~MBt-*Jf :tE(~ft)~~mB-9~Xm8"J~.f~~rtu'~W~~a. 1f.@B-9Xma*~rtu~~~8"J~.1J~~.~,*~ft!!~f~ ~~m~~;{B~a~~~B-9Xm·*~~B-9~.~rtu~*~ ft!!B-9f~lt~JilW1ff:. 0. J1t1JU~;fltt~. Alwin ~AB-9m~*S*ffiJ*. 0. m~*:tE~~®~W~~tllijm~-1Imf~*' ff~=:@If~*~ff.
(12) IDi'i.I~i¥JEF-'fra':5t)jU~1958, 1971,19834. 0. {B~. , JJt-=1I:aJf*:;$:i¥J.. :;$:*/J\~t~:;$:/f[I§IJ , Jl:t1iff~cP~j:j ANOVA ~~~:5tifff*~1T ~~U. 0. j,{f${cpEJ j:j~J=~*f,{£~i¥Ji!t{~:5tifff. .tt®(~~i¥J. 0. ffiH1i~i3"Ji!!1~.tt®(. '~P~i!!1~i¥JE!:~. ,. ~. , ~Pi!!1~cpi¥JE!:~ , J{U.tt®(/f. * ' ~1T =*:5ttff ( secondary all. JI[.jf*4). 0. -*EJj:j~*lWr~~JI[~. )jUAm*4*.~te~Mi¥Jjfcr.WTit3 ". ~~o. ( ${+ J J{U1JDA~W~*1'F~~~ji ( covariate), 1iff~=1!f ~j:j {ImA5Tt~Wi¥J4~'&*~1~i!!1~~ *~:rJ[ , ~~~~1t£L 00 i¥J:5tifff~5f-;~i!!{i;ra'i¥JE!:~®(;a~. , 1iff~~:j=E':l.5Tt~Wi¥J4~1Z9. *r.EBA ' i!!1~~*!if£~1N~ , {B1t£${cpi¥J~{~;a5f-; , 5Tt~WEF-'f ra'i¥J:f~JlI*~~:m~i¥J~V~*. (${+-. J. 0. J{1j1JDA*~~*' 5Tt~W4~ ~)71j. , WifEl*5&* te.li {1m~A. 1iff~~~liil1,{f.tt®(~[l§lJmAi¥Jm~1J*:fXteji~'M"i¥Jfl!A. 0. 0. l§. ~'1iff~~~m~~~/~~~~~if~.~~~AL&~~ ffiJ~Wl'~JjtrW11~J{Ij1"f~~~V. 0. t£D*j:jif§*5&**~ ,. J{U~~J=~19204te.1:.i¥Ji!!1~:fi~~~~1;iE. , fD[I§IJ-i!!{~i¥J::JF~. ~~~~~~~~i¥J~.~A'1"f~~/f[I§IJi¥J~~o ~~7tjt~~~~5TtW-{lmfl!A ~~*~,~EzjiM~. 0. Alwin W Kronsnick(1991) ,Fi~nberg. W Mason(1985) ,Glenn, (1981) ,Kronsnick W Alwin(1989),W 0. Americ~. vol. 79, pp.169-195.. fJtfF~B~~~-flm~JtJji¥1jfcr.WT~~. .~'~~W~mm~:5t~i¥J~.m~ofJt~EJ~~~4*ff. ~.~'~~.~'~ • • ~ • • ~M.i¥J.~.fl • •. analysis of surveys across tir tical Review, 55, 1, pp. 97 Fienberg, S. E. & Mason, W. M implementatin of age, perio Mason & Fienberg (Eds.) ~. cial Research, New York:. Glenn, N. D. (1981). Age, birth illustration of the hazards a. j:jLPfTfr*g*~i!!1~:5ttTi¥J~1'FWW~ji~~i¥JgB{J) , ~. Riley(1973)~Ai¥J§mr:st. over the life span,. 5-87.. ' J{U*3&EJj:j*~~, .. ( parsimony )mA~)Jj{J{U*fi'OtiRJE. 1"fg"f~®(mftEJ j:j~~i¥J. and the stability of sociop. Duncan G. J., & Kalton, G. (1. ( interaction effects) if ~ 7C:i!mM:5ttfTCP'. E!:)jU '. Alwin, D. F. & Kronsick, J. A. m. cohort data, J urnal of Germ 362 - 369. Newcomb. T.M.,. Koeni~,. K.E.. D. P. (1967). Persistence. aJ. College and Its Students aft£' Wiley..
(13) :JtIJ 1!tftt.l-fJT=lE:tf:*""_-=pz.m ,1983~. 0. {BJi! '. .!f:t-={m~*S9f1. ~~). ANOVA ~~IQ:?t:fJT**fi. 9t1tf-t7t:fJT ' Rn~tltf-tS9&~ , ~ t®e ' Rntltf-tCPS9&~ , ~UJt®e1'. 15. *' *tt=:::x?tif.JT (secondary analysis),l'&:,§a1E~g7'i-* Ji~.¥. 0. -*Q]"~)'~*IDJr<=l~Ji~.~S91EJt ' :ML§.rm~~m. JjuAl¥Jiifl*.~l±l:RMS9jfr±.m~. 0. ". .~.13. HF~~~ji ( covariate), iiffYi:1!f. ~tltf-t[tg*~~ , ~Ji!~~f:tLffii tU~. , iiff~:1!ft~jtf)(~S9~lJRfE1 {Bf:t~CPS9lQ:f@U~ , ~~Wmf 1*0. g*, jt~W~IJR' ~Df§*~*. llM7t:fJTcp, ~37U l±Lli OOmA. Alwin, D. F. & Kronsick,. J. A. (1991). Aging, cohorts,. and the stability of sociopolitical and orientations over the life span, American Journal of Sociology, vol. 79, pp.169 -195. Duncan G. J ., & Kalton, G. (1987). Issues of design and analysis of surveys across time, International Statis. 0. M"1J*ttl±l:@jl§lttS9mA 1§. tical Review, 55, 1, pp. 97 - 117.. 0. t ~ ffiE 1:E ~. r ~~.. 0. j;z jj AL t~ ft f!iJ!. $(O*~).f§*~**~. ,. ~~±~fjE , ~D[qJ-tltf-tS9~F:::R ':ffU~1'[qJl¥JJ&ioJo. mmA ' ~U*3&QJ tJ.. BX:FJI!~;fff , .. ~A~)Jj(~U*{MI:~k. implementatin of age, period and cohort models, in Mason & Fienberg (Eds.) Cohort Analysis in So cial Research, N ew York: Springer - Verlag, pp. 4. 5 -87. Glenn, N. D. (1981). Age, birth cohorts, and drinking: An. 0. r9~1'F&~~iii~~S9gBf)J. rl. Fienberg, S. E. & Mason, W. M. (1985). Specification and. ,~. illustration of the hazards of inferring effects from cohort data, J urnal of Gernotology, vol. 36, no. 3,. W Kronsnick(1991) ,Fisnberg 362 -369.. ,Kronsnick W Alwin(1989),W. ~~~~-~~Ml¥JR.~~. ... f.m~o~~~~~~~*~. ·~~~.~~~R~. ~. Newcomb, T.M., Koenig, K.E:, Flacks, R., & Warwick,. D. P. (1967). Persistence and Change: Bennington College and Its Students after 25 years. New York: Wiley..
(14) Riley, M. W. (1973). Aging and cohort succession: interpretations. and. misinterpretations,. Public. Opinion. ~~. Percentage of Respondent!. Admission of Communist Chi] in 10 - Year Cohort. Quarterly, 37: 35 - 49.. (Ns are in pa. 1954. 1957. Cohort 2-Age:. 20 -29. 23-32. 2·. Cohort 3-Age:. 7.3 (332) 30-39. 19.8 (330) 33 -42. 3·. Cohort 4-Age:. 8.4 (403) 40-49. 14.4 (381) 43-52. 4,. Cohort 5-Age:. 5.9 (359) 50 -59. 14.0 (275) 53-62. 5,. Cohort 6-Age:. 6.1 (220) 60-69. 9.8 (223) 63-72. 6. 5.0 (163). 10.1 (149). Cohort I-Age:. Source: American institute of Public Opinion 78,594,650,684,701, 706, 721, and 774 ] Standardized to a sex ratio of 100 and to t 1964 data. 2 Weighted Ns..
(15) li#JJ. i!!:ft~:m1':E:F.t",*•. ng and cohort succession; interpre ~rpreta tions ,. Public. Opinion. ~~. .:p z.m. 17. Percentage of Respondents Who Said They Approved of. Admission of Communist China to the United Nations!,. ~.. in 10 - Year Cohorts, 1954 to 1969. (Ns are in parentheses). 1954. 1957. Year. 1958. 20-29 7.3 (332) 30-39. 23-32 19.8 (330) 33-42 14.4 (381) 43-52 14.0 (275) 53-62 9.8 (223) 63-72 10.1 (149). 24-33 23.7 (554) 34-43 18.6 (661) 44-53 20.9 (561) 54-63 16.9 (433) 64-73 11.5 (343). Cohort I-Age:. Cohort 2-Age:. Cohort 3-Age:. Cohort 4-Age:. Cohort 5-Age:. Cohort 6-Age:. 8.4 (403) 40 - 49 5.9 (359) 50-59 6.1 (220) 60-69 5.0 (163). 19642 20-29 30.2 (1,115)· 30-39 21.29 (1,156) 40-49. 19652 21-30 29.80 (1,252) 31-40 26.8 (1,339) 41- 50. 1969. 25-34. 38.3 (273). 35-44. 35.3 (313). 45-54. 18.8 19.7 (1,308) (1,452) 50-59 51-60 14.8 18.1 (1,161) (1,127) 60-69 61-70 9.4 19.0 (890) (1,056) 70-79 71-80 9.1 15.4 (453) (530). 32.8 (289). 55-64. 24.7 (236). 65-74. 26.9 (168). 75-84. 17.1 (100). Source:American institute of Public Opinion (American Gallup) Surveys 533, 534, 5. 78, 594, 650, 684, 701, 706, 721, and 774.. 1 Standardized to a sex ratio of 100 and to the educational distribution shown by the. 1964 data. 2 Weighted Ns.. 'ill.
(16) ~J\. ~-t Percentage of Respondents Who Said They Approved of Admission of Communist China to the United Nations, 1 by Age, 1954 to 1969 (Ns are in parenteses). Changes in Percentage of Respon Admission of Communist China t( 20 - 29 Age Range and in Each of • 1954 to 1958, 1958 to 19t. Year. Age 20-29. 1954 7.3 (332). 1957 17.0 (256). 1958 23.7 (422). 19642 30.2 (1,115). 19652 29.5 (1,145). 1969 46.9 (261). 30-39. 8.4 (403). 18.5 (374). 21.9 (670). 21.2 (1,156). 26.8 (1,318). 36.2 (286). 40-49. 5.9 (359). 12.9 (315). 21.4 (585). 18.8 (1,308). 19.0 (1,413). 36.1 (329). 50-59. 6.1 (220). 10.6 (236). 18.2 (493). 14.8 (1,127). 18.0 (1,181). 30.6 (257). 60-69. 5.0 (163). 7.4 (186). 12.9 (392). 9.4 (890). 16.6 (1,133). 26.1 (206). 70-79. 5.0 (121). 5.3 (70). 11.8 (211). 9.1 (530). 15.1 (487). 24.6 (117). Source:American institute of Public Opinion (American Gallup) Surveys 533, 578, 5 94, 650, 684, 701, 706, 721, and 774. 1 Standardized to a sex ratio of 100. 2 Weighted Ns.. 1954 to 19; +16.4 Cohort 2 + 16.4 Cohort 3 +10.2 Cohort 4 + 15.0 Cohort 5 + 10.8 +6.5 Cohort 6 Mean Change in Cohorts + 11.8 20 - 29Age Range. Source:Computed from data in Tables 5 and ~.
(17) 1!tft~HJT:t£*-I:*~u,tpz..m. ,M . ldents Who Said They Approved of na to the United Nations, 1 by Age, i4 to 1969 in parenteses). ~/\. Changes in Percentage of Respondents Who Said They Approved of Admission of Communist China to the United Nations, in the 20 - 29 Age Range and in Each of Five 10 - Year Birth Cohorts, 1954 to 1958, 1958 to 1965, and 1965 to 1969 Period. Year 1958 23.7 (422) . 19642 30.2 (1,115). 19652 29.5 (1,145). 1969 46.9. (261). 21.9 (670) . 21.2 (1,156). 26.8 (1,318). 36.2. (286). 21.4 (585). 18.8 (1,308). 19.0 (1,413). 36.1 (329) 30.6 (257) 26.1 (206). 18.2 (493). (1,127). 18.0 (1,181). 12.9 (392). 9.4 (890). 16.6 (1,133). 11.8 (211). 9.1 (530). 15.1 (487). 14.8. 24.6 (117) lion (American Gallup) Surveys 533, 578, 5. 19. 1954 to 1958 1958 to 1965 1965 to 1969 +5.8 + 17.4 + 16.4 + 16.4 +3.1 +8.5. + 13.1. + 10.2 + 1.1 -2.8 +6.6 + 15.0 +2.1" +7.9. + 10.8 + 1.7. +6.5 +3.9 Cohort 6 +7.6 + 11.8 + 1.5 Mean Change in Cohorts 20 - 29Age Range Cohort 2 Cohort 3 Cohort 4 Cohort 5. Source:Computed from data in Tables 5 and 6..
(18) 1iII:ll.i6l:i~*.. 20. {. ~~i!~ } M1i#}l. ~:h.. Mean Ranks of Parental Preferences for Autonomy and Obedience, by year of stydy and Birth Cohort category Year of Study. Cohort Pre -1920 1920 - 29 1930 - 39 1940 - 49 1950 - 59 Total. F P Pre -1920 1920 - 29 1930 - 39 1940 - 49 1950 - 59 Total. a. 1958 3.83 4.23 4.43 -a 4.14 6.86 <.00 3.38 3.14 3.04 -a. 1971 4.02 4.15 4.38 4.21 4.28 4.23 2.68 <.03. 1983 Think for Self 3.00 4.46 4.09 4.59 4.34 4.41 3.61 < .01 Obey. ~+ Mean Ranks of 1 Autonomy and Obedlenc Birth Cohort Category Differences in the A. Total. F. 3.86 4.21 4.34 4.42 4.33 4.26 8.40 < .00. 1.84 .71 1.93 11.91 .06. ns ns. < .05. < .00. ns. .06 .07 .69 7.43 .52. ns ns ns <.01. ns. 3.35 4.06 3.38 3.10 3.21 3.13 2.86 3.08 2.96 2.97 2.59 2.76 2.64 2.85 2.84 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.99. 1.58 2.98 2.61 7.54 F P ns <.02 <.03 <.00 Think minus Obey Pre -1920 .67 -1.06 .48 .45 1920 - 29 1.09 1.04 1.24 1.08 1930 - 39 1.40 1.52 1.01 1.38 -a 194·0 - 49 1.24 1.93 1.64 1950"- 59 1.64 1.48 1.49 .94 Total 1.22 1.60 1.29. F 4.58 3.54 3.84 10.18. P <.01 < .01 <.00 <.00 Sam~le Sized Pre -1920 116 94 7 1920 - 29 134 286 22. 1930 - 39 81 307 63 1940 - 49 308 3 206. 1950 - 59 25 212. 344 1,027 Total 510 Means not presented for less than 5 cases.. P. 1958. Cohort Pre -1920. 1920 1930 1940 1950 Total. 29 39 49 59. 4.14 4.65 .010. F P. Pre -1920 1920 - 29. 1.31 .07 1.10 12.25 .12'. ns. ns ns. <.00 ns. 3.90 4.18 4.41. 1930 -39 1940 - 49 1950 - 59. Total. F P. 3.30 3.20 3.06. 3.20 .66 .515. T Pre -1920. 1920 1930 1940 1950 Total. F P. 29 39 49. 59. .61 .98 1.35. .94 2.68 .070.
(19) i:jtIJ. ~ft~HJf~;£t.'*.9:JzllJm. utal Preferences for Autonomy and tydy and Birth Cohort category Iy 1983 Total F. P 'hink for Self 3.00 3.86 1.84 ns 4.46 4.21 .71 ns 4.09 4.34 1.93 <.05 4.59 4.42 11.91 <.00 4.34 4.33 .06 ns 4.41 4.26 3.61 8.40 < .01 < .00. Obey. 4.06 3.38 .06 ns 3.21 3.13 .07 ns 3.08 2.96 .69 ns 2.59 2.76 7.43 < .01 2.85 2.84 .52 ns 2.80 2.99 2.61 7.54 <.03 < ..00 lk minus Obey -1.06 .48 1.31 ns 1.24 1.08 .07 ns 1.01 1.38 1.10 ns 1.93 1.64 12.25 <.00 1.48 1.49 .12' ns 1.60 1.29 3.84 10;18 <.00 <.00 7. 22 63. 206. 212 510. lseS.. ~+ Mean Ranks of Parental Preferences for Autonomy and Obedience, by year of Study and Birth Cohort Category, Adjusted for Cohort. Differences in the Amount of Schooling Year of Study Cohort Pre -1920 1920 - 29 1930 - 39 1940 - 49 1950 - 59 Total F P. 1958 3.90 4.18 4.41. 4.14 4.65 .010. 1971 Think for Self. 1983. 4.15 4.18 4.34 4.18 4.29 4.23 1.38 .238. 3.33 4.57 4.14. 4.51. 4.35 4.41 2.48 .043. Obey Pre -1920 1920- 29 1930-39 1940-49 1950 - 59 Total F P. 3.30 3.20 3.06. 3.20 .66 .515. 3.21 .51 3.07 2.91 3.02 2.63 3.00 1.50 .199. 3.04 3.00 2.73 42.82 2.80 .94 .440. .. Think minus Obey. I. I. Pre-1920 1920 - 29 1930 - 39 1940 - 49 1950 - 59 Total F P. .61 .98 1.35. .94 2.68 .070. .95 1.12 1.43 1.15 1.66 1.22 1.71 .144. - .18. 1.53. 1.13. 1. 78. 1.53 1.60 1.89 .110. 21.
(20) 22. •. .n:i&j~j;;:.. (. ilF~iAtR.. >MZiW!. ~+- Metric Coefficients from the Regression of Preferences for. Autonomy and Obedience in Children on time of Survey,. Cohort Categories, Schooling, and Religion. Model Predictor. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. Think Intercept Time-1958 Time-1983. 4.238 - .095 .187**. 4.292. 4:308. 4.318. 4.359. .052. .074. .073. .069. 1920-29 cohort. .143 .057 .057 .056 - .458* * - .331* * - .329* * - .265 - .049 - .097 - .074 - .074. 1940-49 cohort 1950-59 cohort. .062 - .084. Pre-1920 cohort. Schooling. - .005. - .007 - .154 - .074 - .159 - .073 .108* , .109* , .109**. Catholic. - .025. Catholic' Pre -1920 Catholic' Pre - 29. - .155 - .064 .425* *. Catholic' Pre - 49 Catholic' Pre - 59 R -square. - .128. .231. .01. .03. .08. .08. .09. 2.951. 2.967. .024. .023. 2.982 - .023. .007 .203. .007. - .010. Obey Intercept Time-1958 Time-1983 Pre-1920 cohort. 2.985 .217**. 2.973. .052 .211 ' * - .104 .367". 1920-29 cohort 1940-49 cohort 1950-59 cohort. .116 - .181 - .048. Schooling. .204. .086 - .094. .086 - .097 .006 - .063 - .065 - .037 - .140' , - .140* , .139' * - .040. Catholic Catholic Pre - 1920. - .080 .293. Catholic' Pre - 29. .383 - .321. Catholic' Pre - 49 Catholic' Pre - 59 R - square. .089 - .062. - .091 .02. .02. .08. .09. Think and Obey. .09. Intercept Time-1958 Time-1983 Pre-1920 cohort. 1.253 - .312' .398*. 1.32 .00 .24 -. .8~. 1920-29 cohort. - .21. 1940-49 cohort. .24 - .03. 1950-59 cohort Schooling Catholic Catholic' Pre - 1920 Catholic' Pre - 29 Catholic' Pre - 49 Catholic' Pre - 59 R - square. .02. . O~.
(21) :.. -m:ft~~:t£*-I:.~.~z..m. :om the Regression of Preferences for ~ in Children on time of Survey, , Schooling, and Religion Model 2. 4. 3 Think. l.292 .052. 4:308 .074. 5. 4.318. 4.359 .069. .. 097. - .074. .062 .. 084. - .005 - .007 - .154 - .073 - .074 - .159 .108* * .109* * .109* *. - .074. - .025. - .049. - .128 - .155 - .064 .425* * .231. .08. .08. .09 2.982 - .023. Obey ~.973. 2.951. 2.967. .052. .024. .104 .367* *. .007. .023 .007. .203. .204. .116 .181 .048. - .010 .089 - .062. .086 .086 - .094 - .097 .006 - .063 - .065 - .037 - .140* * - .140' * .139* * - .040. - .080 .293 .383 - .321 - .091. .02. .08. Time-1983 Pre-1920 cohort. 1.253 - .312* .398*. 1920-29 cohort. .073 .143 .057 .057 .056 - .458' * - .331* * - .329* * - .265. .03. Intercept Time-1958. .09. Think and Obey. .09. 1940-49 cohort 1950-59 cohort Schooling. 1.320. 1.357 .049. 1.351. .050 .046 .050 .050 .247 - .824" - .533** - .534*' - .354 .013 - .160 - .160 - .213 .160 .090 .089 .243 - .122 - .010 - .011 - .036 .247* * .248*' .248' , .000. .015. Catholic Catholic' Pre -1920 Catholic' Pre - 29 Catholic' Pre - 49 Catholic' Pre - 59 R - square. 1.377 .046. .048 - .449 - .448 .746* .322. .02. 23. .03. .11. .11. .12.
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