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房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響之分析

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(22) 2. Albert. W. (1954)." The Strategy of Economic Development" ,CH.6 NBER : New York. 3.___ ( 1962). "Business Cycle Residential Construction Cycle. and the Mortgage Market" • Journal of Political Economy. Vol.70 No.3. p276. 4. Barras. R. & Ferguson D. (1987). "Dynamic Modeling of the Building Cycle" , Environment and Planning. VoL3. p89. 131.. 5. Barton A. Smith & William P. Tesarek ( 1991 ) • "Housing Prices and Regiolal Real Estate Cycles. Mar­. ket Adjustments in Houston Area. AREUEA. Vol.19 No.3. pp. 353 367, 493 - 520. 6. Bear, W. & Kerstenstzky I. (1964). Import Substitution and Industrialization in Brazil, American Eco­ nomic Review. No.54. pp.411- 436. 7. Buckley (1983). "Housing and Economy Popular Myths" • AREUA. Vol.lO 8. Burns & Grebler (1982). "Construction Cycle in the USA since World War. n ". AREUA. Vo1.10.. 9. Case. Karr E. (1993). "The Real E:State Cycle and Economy : Conseqences of Massachusetts Boom of 1 984 -1987" • Urban Studies. Vol.29 'pp.171. m Cella.. G. (1984), "The Input. 183.. Output Measurement of the Interindustry Linkages" , Oxford Bulletin of. Economic and Statistics, VoL 46 No.I. pp73. 84.. IL Chow. I - Chang. (1994). ARIMA Model of Residential Construction Cycle in Taiwan. pp.213 - 217. Il Colean. M.L. & Newcomb R. (1952), The Record and Potential New York.. 13. Dauten. C. (1972). Busine..o;;s Cycles and Forecasting. (2ed) p289. 14. David. & Louis ( 1953 ), "The Structure of the Housing Market" , Quarterly Journal Economics ( \I ) . 15. Dennis. G. & Julia L. (1985) ... Developing Regional Indicators Variables : A Study of Methods" • Pre­ sented at the Missouri Vvalley Economic Association Conference (march) • pp. 7 - 9. IG. Derksen. J. B. D. (1940) ... Long Cycles in Residential Building : An Explanation" • Econometrica. VoL. 8. pp.97. 116.. 11. Frumkin. Norman. (1990). Guide tolndicators. M.E. Shsrpe Inc.. 18. Grebler (1960) • Housing Issues in Economic Stabilization Policy. NBER : New York. 19. Geoffery, M. (1959), Business Cycle Indicators Volume I Contribution to the Analysis of Current Busi­ ness Conditions, Princeton U. Press.. al ___ ( 1994 ).. .. The Propositions in UK Housing Macro eoonomics: An Overview of Eighties and Ear­. ly Nineties" ,Diss. cussion Papers in Urban & Regional Economics University of Reading.. 21. Granger, C. W . J. (1969). "Investigatng Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods" • Econometrica, Vol. 37 • pp.424. 429.. 22. Grenadier, R. Steven (1995), ., The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles" , Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 10 No.2, pp.95 -119. Zl. Guttontag, J . M. (1961), .. The Short Cycle in Residential Construction" • American Economic Review, Vol.51 No.3, pp.25. 47.. 24. Hansen. A.H. (1951). Business Cycle and National Income, p40.. 2).. Hamish. Mcrae (1994) , Homeeconomics. Search 20. pp.8 - 11.. m Hicks,. J. K. (1950). A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle.. 'll. Hugh, O. Nourse (1995), "Measuring Business Real Property Performance" , The Journal of Real Estate. Research. VoL9 N04. pp.431. 453.. 3.l. Jaffee, D. M. & Rosen, K. T. (1978), "Estimates of the Effectivene..o;;s of Stabilization Policies for the. Mortgage and Housing Markets" • The Journal of Finance. Vo1.33, pp.933. 946.. 49 Keynes, I.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, MacMillan (New York.

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(24) M.. $r~:g~. NO. msF,ms. NO. 1. • •At. 16. 2. #it 7.f!it. 17. 4,.,it. 19 W. .TAt£. 21. . . . &Jtfll!.1iB. 22. JIM T~. 23. ilMT~. 24. ~FaIfl. 3. 5. ~I*~. 6. "*1&1!ift ~ .. £. 7. 8. 1tt~&~Mi£. *,fJ &*.~. 9 10 11 12. D. Jt1l1!.~1;;&fit:"Ul£. 18.~. ~Jtl1iB. l!I!; 'l!;.£&~Hil'JI±:~£. 25. 'It!:h. itUM4. ~Ji[ & §. A.m,8JhHIUJ.£. 26 27. ilMtr1illf:illi1l'i. Jt~it*.£. ~. .£••. *A,. fi'llll• • £ 29 Jt{lI!.~IH1}. 15_~_141,fit: • • ~tIi.___ _~~30___.l-.!'-'-m~:lt!!.==Jt.=__. ___..__~.~__..__._~ .........J tt: L1-29$r'~tH:~tl4 ( 1986) • it~IIJJ.*_~tilHij·msr'§JIJ;jtjfjiJ 14. 0. 2~30msr~~*liJf1EliJf!tjnU:.m:lt!!.itmsr~. 0. [m.= ]29 ' 99 ' 123.r'J.mili• •. :fg.Mr'Jz.";&~Mtt!!«~. I••t~r~.~. - _1.lI!~L99msr~.:&:f,Qj 2. ~ . 'It--. 12~8T.. Fa. I. '-'. i. 'IT7- ~ I {1!1. ~m ~I T. :-&fIIi.-~·fJl.~. _S£I: . ~f{-~r-'tii-_. = ~~n'l~-~m. 88 £~-.--"-foli---£ ---.--.. ~. I. 89m. ~. 1Tf- : = I 9. I. ~. 1. 9 2 j! ... ~-. :93: I 2. 9. it. [III :. fi\870 ~ I fi\ 8olj{1!1.~Falfi\ it{lI!.'.IFaIfl. 790. ~. nil. I. I. 5'. 9. 4. 9 5 -. ~. 1f. fI:*. 9 6. _._. 9. 0 ~. Jt {lI!.. 7. I. It. ;0;; : : : 102. 1*. ~. I.

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