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(1)I. ~ 12 .... ~F,~~~JIt#i 1!if .'iR- Jl51 / ~bt; k. *. Jli it; !f.. ft-;::XtltW*lfiX2f~'. Woods) ~~~~~m#jIJ. ~{l?lIm#jq1:E 1971. 0. ffyti5i:gaJHiiE8#jU}j~JYl~. ~~~. ?!J~m. ::ffJ37U~~~H*(Bretton. i¥!\.fiWtm. 0. EHtt21tt~~~~. , fI}1JaLjflJWj.&E8~~ , 1§.~jf*~E8§ EEit:; ,. ~~jf*m~E8mm.*~M&~~~~*~jf~~~E8~~,~m~~. ~.mm~*'~~~N~~'~~~~E8.~~.o~~~.~~~~ ~wm~~~wmm~~7~~E8~.o~*+~,wm~$~$m~~ ~~.E8Wm!Jl~~~7ff'f~liJfJ'E. m~$Jt{m;::X~F~. 0. ~Jf!;;liJfJ'E/F{I§PX-f~. ( 11tltlD~~wrf1 ~ It~iE)(m ' ~~iE)(m). 1. , ~Jf5HEr!Jw ~ Ml~*~i1W~. $E8~M~i1W¥·~N~i1W~o~~OOE8liJfJ'E.~.~wm~i1W¥E8~ .o*~~~~~~.E8.~~~'~~~.~wmE8~.~M&.m~ ~~.~eE8Jt~ffi~.e'~~~OOE8~.w~.oaft~~.~. aJH~~~~.~wm2ra~E8~1*. -,. ••. 0. ~~~~MJ&5ti1iii!. ft~~.~2M'.~~~. •• 7Wt-T~~~.E8m~o~mm~. :g.mM~:.*~~N~·~~.~tt~o~~~.E8~~.:g~*,. 7i:g A~ill " -~~I~~rr~fi'ij ( 11U~n~~ftBasleE8~~m~iNrr ' Bank of International Settlements, BIS) , t!1ilE/F1fHJtI:~OO'i1E81Ji1i ~.E8PXffi:.ft:kt*7. 0. l. ~ffiS~.~. --~fI?llIITimf~ijr fflE8lif~~!*-~E8~.~~.. -o.*E8.~W. !. '. 2-~~.fi~~MBfifj.'11001§..m. Helen V. Milner, "Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics," International Organization. Vol. 52, No.4 (Autumn 1998), pp. 759-786..

(2) ±tiifij~ (swap, option, futures, swaption ~ , ~:!13q:r~). 19:Mf¥Jf~f¥J. 1£ 1995. 0. BIS f1~~m~f¥J~"H!t. fNM 1999. 3 Jj )g~~ 47.5. LE6i~~1t~rzg*13t. '. ' ~ 1998. ~px~$~ 130%. 0. 6. , 2~iiJ:fjH:~ftEX. ' ~1j(ffJ±tiifij~f¥J1:1fj )gJ{lJji 72 ~~~jC ~,¥~ 0. jiR~1~fI1±tiifij~f¥Jm:l~Hfij. '~~~1£~~~1£.fim~~~f¥J.~~~'~~f¥Jmm,.m'm. 'iiJ.a~@~~~~M~~.f¥J.*o~~.*f¥Jm-m~~ ~1J~'§'~IDM§1*.IN~M §. Ef31tl¥JJJ&w:. Ef3"(tl¥JJJ&w:I¥J:JBfiX W~~[PJ , [PJ , 1E~~M§ Ef31tl¥J*am~~UiUEf¥J jit!21re1!l1rl Mifij~~~~~i! 3~~~Ml¥Jm=M~~~JfU~~~I¥J~)JtIJc · illfHfft 0. l1i~ji@~M §. 0. 0. &1.N~~jiz~. 0. 4&~WJilI1l¥J'§'~~M§ Ef31tl¥Jm~!fJ\Jh~iiJ¥)i. 0. ~,IJ!t~. ~~.~iiJ:f£-Mm.~~W~ff;®H~~~m.I¥JAiiJ1£~ff~§m. Zj}. 0. a'~~¥~1¥J. r ~~ J. fji~JjHlilI1~M3Z~~ocl¥Jm~. =m~V~~!J~~~m~f¥J!&i5-ti~. 0. 0. 5~~~MI¥J~. ~l~m~l¥J!&idiiiJm'§';fI1J~*?J!~. °m@-~·a~~~W~~l¥Jmm,. '6im1£-~Z~~~~.. *~.·'§';fIm~ft.§.~m~.liffi~.oE.-~'a~iiJ~M • •~. rx:LE 13t1¥J ~ ~fU~ft~~flj. I¥J. ~,~~. 13tf¥Jflj~7j(. (covered interest parity) , ~~§t • .§.~~Wt~ft19:.~f¥J;f§Rf*lt ftiflU1£1£m~~f*~Mm~l¥Jmil'ti1l{~. 0. 6~Mm~l¥Jmil'ti~. 0. ji©;;. , ~~~. ~7m~*Rm.a*(WWJilI1l¥J.*'~OC~)Zj},t!2~rzg~'§';fI~ ~~~;JfI¥J~JlM1M (f9a~o~jCl¥J:JBpx. j. ; 7~~~~tJ:i~TI¥J~Mm~*§. Fred D. Arditti. Derivatives (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. 1996). Michael Loriaux, et.a!., Capital Ungoverned (Ithaca. NY: Cornell University Press. 1997); Sylvia Maxfield,. Governing Capital (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990); David M. Meerschwam. Breaking. Financial Boundaries (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. 1991); Louis W. Pauly. Opening. Financial Markets (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988).. Richard O'Brien, Global Financial Integration: The End of Geography (London: The Royal Institute of. International Affairs, 1992).. Richard B. McKenzie and Dwight R. Lee, Quicksilver Capital (New York: Free Press, 1991).. b. William Roberts Clark, et.al., "International and Domestic Constraints on Political Business Cycles in OECD Economies," International Organization, Vol. 52, No. I (Winter 1998), pp. 87-120; Andrew C. Sobel, Domestic Choices, International Markets (Ann Arbor, MI: Urtiversity of Michigan Press, 1994). Barry Eichengreen and Jeffry Frieden, eds., The Political Economy of European Monetary Unification (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994)..

(3) IlI~Ht ill l): j{;. 407. it ; BG-7 !1~~~*~IJfFp~~E8~J1l!) 9ill1lJJffi: 7 .§.~~i~!lr$~E8!}fJmJ?di~ 0. A q. 0. ~L~~~~~E8m~'mfr~~~~~~~~E8~~~~o~nOO E8x~~~nm~~rr:-~~~~~~~,-~~~~~~m~o~~~ ~~~1'tJf~§. E~. 0. 1636-37 frfflJlJ~~E8I!~W3I~ , jtJf~;t~ffi. 1**11Jf ' fflJlJJj~~E~mW:l7ffi&'1'fj;JH~E8~~Wl~rtf~ l!~wffi1*~ li$L1~ , mJlJE8*~1Jf1E7~+£f.E8~Fe';;t~~mtlfti lojt1~W 1720 £f.~ , 1997 £f. ~E8]lHlli~~~~',§, ~~~~/fIiT:ft!!~ l1;f1Hlt Kindleberger E8~$ , ~@~~~~~1'f@.#IPJE8mt~ : )fc~~1!m.ft.f:C& ~7 Afr~!1~lJfmr~E8;g$ , ~f~~r:f1~~lHJ!}fJM1f1l~fi3ffl ' fl~~;t1'f@ ~~~.!}fJM1*.~~'~7~m~~~'*~!1~IJf • • E8Wl~!}fJM1& , ffi1*m~~li$ *~lJfmmli~J&ffl'7~JiU~~~"ftzE8JJJ7<:: ' *~1Jf ' f±1t ' 0. 0. 0. 0. ,. ~~.§.nOO~1tMmm*E8~*o&,~~@mt~~~W~~MMmE8.~ .$,~m~~~~~~E8Jf~ffl~m~~~~~.o~E8/f~,~mlli ~~f!mm*E8~~~~ (/f-B113f1/J\E8~~). ,. ~~.Jt~. 1929 £f.!}fJ~iJE811iW*~lJfllf~ , 1976 ~ 1980 £f.f-tmE85,g=lliW~~'HtfJt~ ~ , J;J& 1997 £f.E8*5:2:~~~~ ~-=.;J:~~jf*mBiE8 j]! [PJ ( 1929£f.E!}fJ~~*E81i*±~fj~~E8fJt~rtf~ifrtA!}fJ~r:f1~* ' 1976 1981 ~fjm{Tffif~,x , 1997 f!IJ~f.LA1i~~[J~i*~~~'#[PJ~~~~!}fJ~ r:f1~*iJ[fl~1i) 121i*YfrHiE8~j]!/flPJill§ft~.&mrj7~~E8~.MOO ' .§. 0. 0. , Wendy Dobson and Pierre Jacquet, Financial Services Liberalization in the WTO (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1998). 9. Fred C. Bergsten and C. Rendall Henning, Global Economic Leadership and the Group of Seven (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1996).. to. II. Peter M. Garber, "Who Put the Mania in Tulipmania?" The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 16, No. I (Fall 1989), pp. 53-60. Charles P. Kindleberger, A Financial History of Western Europe, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984); Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, revised ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1989).. I'. Barry Eichengreen and Albert Fishlow, "Contending with Capital Flows: What Is Different about the 1990s?" in Miles Kahler, ed., Capital Flows and Financial Crises (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), pp. 23-68..

(4) ±~flfl~*&~~t~MM~r~~flIHfJ~:FJt!1J;t\. ,. j;)Jsdl~~I¥J&:JJ!. 0. ;3Jlt. ~,m@~Am~mW~*I¥J_*·~tt.~~eft:~A~~~W'~ ~~mM.~.~~M.~om@~.~.~~.~.l¥Jtt.o. 1¥J~~@~.~~±frT-~I¥J~~~m&~~~m~~$(~TW)· Jlt~tt~m@~.I¥J~~&~.·ili~~.n7o~m-ml¥J~·fr.lli. -~.~~.~.~±~,. *·mfO 1929 ~. 0. $1¥J~.~~t§1Uz~. ;>j;)'J:J~;¥Uaf.]~~l1ijJm*c. ~;J\l¥JfB.. '. ~~~~*~m~m~.~~~.nl¥Jm. -. ,. ~Jltttfjj:~f~~.I¥Jl:t~~]jIJ~. {~*I¥J~.fB.. ~@fB.~@±~~~~~.. '. '. jtfm.~g!f~~.~jJl. ~@~~p~H&~af.]fB.. '. ~. @~~.ff~.,~~jj:-~I¥J~ftD~~;fi.Em~I¥J~.AA~.~. -@frfB.$ ; 161994-951¥J~±fr~i?::!fi~~fBf.]. rfjg%rI~'5[JJ!J (tequila effect;. ; :'1992 $j;!g~ ,~AA-!It~f~*,f.]iJl~l¥J~r1'H~f;lfflHl* (European Monetary System, EMS) EfJ ~Ib ' &~fJt~~~mi~f;Iff.M (European Monetary Union, EMU) &;X 1~~~~i:t)t~~j;),~j[:~rrl¥J~{lffiFiI~af.]~~~.). I, . Philippe F Delhaise, Asia in Crisis: The Implosion of the Banking and Finance Systems (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998); Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992); Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Callum Henderson, Asia Falling (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998); Ethan B. Kapstein, Governing the Global Economy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1994).. H. Sylvia Maxfield, "Effects of International Portfolio Flows on Government Policy Choice," in Miles Kahler,. L,. ed., Capital Flows and Financial Crises (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), pp. 69-92. Paul Krugman,The Return ofDepression Economics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999).. :.; Rose Brady, Kapitalizm (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1999); Steven L. Solnick, Stealing the State: Control and Collapse in Soviet Institutions (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998). International Monetary Fund, "Evolution of the Mexican Peso Crises" and "Mexican Foreign Exchange Market Crises from the Perspective of the Speculative Attack Literature," International Capital Markets (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1995), pp.53-69; Timothy P. Kessler, "Political Capital: Mexican Financial Policy under Salinas," World Politics, Vol. 51, No.1 (October 1998), pp. 36-66; Miguel Savastano, Jorge Roldos, and Julio Santanella, "Factors behind the Financial Crisis in Mexicc," World Economic Outlook (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, May 1995)..

(5) [@ ~ it II! ifk. 409. - {9tll¥J~;J\~fr!.M~~ftfL~fF ' ~~-@:jt{m~±ft1::;~fF1-t ' ;\~fF1-tI¥J/J\~:sE~fr!.M ' fl<. :rc (Euro) 1-t~±1¥J. m. 1¥J-@1~*,~'QB!. ftltt::f TW~. J8j;)l:FJT~. 0. 0. mft~M~~~:sE~m~~~~o~A.OO~OOmaM,aM~~1¥J lI{tf[~D{iiJ31!~. , ffyt-@:~aM1~m~f~~h,\I¥JF.,'1m '. illf!~¥!V!rJl¥J::ff~IHi~:~. ~{iiJM.~.ft31!aMmftl¥J.m,.~~.:jt**I¥J.m,~~m~ffi. fFl¥J Peace of Westphalia OO~ , .E£li*~* RPj[~f0W: ' -1f1!1±fl~*:ff-ff1!laM ' Ew:illlWJ ill@aM~FE'l¥Jft31! ~ffjU ' JJD~aMft31!MffjlJFJT¥!V&I¥J!t~IHJ&:jt1m:sE~MfMl¥Jmi! ' :sE~M :f.JE'Ii~1?lilt~*. 0. ;9~ 1648. 0. .~~I¥J~mtt*l¥Jmi!'~~fl<ftill~ffifil¥J~~:sE~m~°fl<I¥JM~. r :sE*flOMLt J (gold standard) f'&~ David Hume BkJ~?t ' fttl!j:Q.I¥J:sE*{ilfMLt~T ' m~~R:ffmf-**E9-ato/JfDJi ~ff1!l~*I¥J~~~!&:t1*f.&~ r .;f§- Ji:sE-ifrtlfJ J ( "price-specie-flow" ) (f:JM~IJ*IDElW ' , RPJi:sE1l~j(&iJ]J:=F~ifrt J 2°~D* ~1r51Eill1f1!1fml't'll¥Jfl~~1~fI~-@ , tttgf:ffaMm~t¥ft ' fffillillff1!la ~m~OJ j;)~fIJ (arbitrage)' :ff$;k:iH=r ( J;):sE*{i'[:tJjHttaMftt~ ) , • ~~li~m-;XtftW*~1W1~BkJ. 0. o. ~~~:sE~M.(~~.#~~~)'ill~~~!&:tI¥JIDElW~::f~~~.. m'. fffi~~~flJ~&jt*ifrtlfJ. 0. ill~~ 1870 fFft;tJ~m-;Xtftw*~~. ~'~:sE*m~±I¥J~~:sE~m~°ftill~fl<~::f0*.m:sE*m~LtT (f:JN~tt~W,~~tt.I¥J~TOOm~om-'.*~IfJ~ill~~Lt::fOJ ~~I¥J-$~;m-,. ~~!&:t~OOaM~JE'~~:ffj(&iJ]J:=F1¥J. " International Monetary Fund, "EMU and the World Economy," World Ecorwmic Outlook, Annual Issue (Washington, D.c': International Monetary Fund, October 1997), pp. 51-77; Gregory J. Millman, The Vandals' Crown (New York: Free Press, 1995); Richard Portes, "EMS and EMU after the Fall," World Economy, Vol. 16, No.1 (January 1993), pp. 1-15; Wayne Sandholtz, "Choosing Union: Monetary Politics and Maastricht," International Organization, Vol. 47, No. I (Wimer 1993), pp. 1-39; Niels Thygesen, 'Towards Monetary Union in Europe-Refortns of the EMS in the Perspective of Monetary Union," Journal afCommon Market Studies, Vol. 31, No.4 (December 1993), pp. 447-472. " Peter L. Berstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1996). ~~~-fi!\Ili1l'fl'.~~fl'll$i~lt ! 4S7U 19961FBusinessWeek ~$fj~.m§l 0. " David Hume, 1752 Essays in abridged fortn in Barry Eichengreen, ed., The Gold Standard (New York: Methuen, 1985), pp. 39--48..

(6) ~.~~~aM~m~~~_.'~~~ • • M'~~~~OO-~~~tt ~~_~~~*~£~~o~~~m~m~fu~ill~~m~~m~~'~ *~fgfiom~m-~*~rr~7illM~OOo~.~~~~¥$'~~ J!31§-&~~±ft. '. ~~~Im;f!JffifiJ. rlm J;)*tH~~~~IiI!~f!JE. {tI!_.. 0. 0. '. f~~~JN1Nlrji}~>Jt~B~1f;t)~. ~~Riff~m1~~*{lLf!JE~~~~~$rl!t. 21~§Z' ~m1~~*{lL~~pg~m~~111iJ7. 0. ill~~Jjra'~~. ~.~~~~~,~*~*~~~~~~m&~pg~m~>Jt~-M~~. ~'iff~~*m~~~IiI!.Mf!JET*'~~ill~~~~W~~~~oD @1~~*6*~.IJ~~~9!1JU1*~J;)~~m~~1iI! ( ~aM~t1ltZfWlJ;);fU ttl D ). &~~ (jf~~~{;l;R~±~) ~m· il~=O:$f~~*~iJf.i~J!~~~1JD o~m_~lliW*~~m~fu~m~®~z~o. m-~lliW*~~~'. ·~~_a~~~~lliW*~z~~~*m. MME~~~~.'~~~IiI!~~~~-M~.M'~~~~~~~f!JE. T* '. J;)!€,*~~~f!x.JJX~i@JJX!f1~~~M~. 1944 :$~lti37U~1i**1lt. 0. ~ (Bretton Woods Conference) t:p , ~_ft~Im[Z.;lwr John Maynard Keynes. 1SZ~~it~'tm~ Harry Dexter White ~--IJl1ff1!tiZ1~ ~~~.at~ oC3illf~atlJ~~i~t~5. 0. • 1ii:lL71ti37U~1if* m- . ~_ff!~ffi~~§ EE:lHl\l. >Jt~_~~~§~o~~9!m~-~fu~~'~_~fu~m~~~~*m ~M-fl' ~>Jt~pg~B~1f;t) • • MJ;)it$rl~~~ik~f!JE. 0. John Gerard. Ruggie ~illMIL~IDt~Wm~ ~~pg~~~~ijRmiff. : ~~~~1*I&rm1i\t~~m • 1!J*~~atil ; ~D*~~g~pg • jf,t~~~~~rm1i\t illnJHitt r m~~pg 0. ~§ EE±RJ (embedded liberalism). , J;)~.%~rs'~~t1~fWl. 0. 0. -. •. ~~~~~ • •trl1*~JEI1i. Jt~f'FnA~4i35~jf:m J;)~JE3t-~OJ(fJ. Beth A. Simmons, Who Adjusts? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994). '" Kenneth A. Oye, "The Sterling-Dollar-Franc Triangle: Monetary Diplomacy, 1929-1937," World Politics, VoL 38, No.1 (October 1985), pp. 173-199. Richard N. Gardner, Sterling-Dollar Diplomacy in Current Perspective: The Origins and the Prospects of Our International Economic Order (New York: Columbia University Press, 1980); Georg Schild, Bretton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1995).. " John Gerard Ruggie, "International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order," International Organization, Vol. 36, No.2 (Spring 1982), pp. 379-415..

(7) II ~ :HiSl iEj( )# jt~ , Jt1tl!ftrmQB1~~~rj!1~j[*'t£;t~*-ZP1Jl. '. 411. RfigtEZP1JlB1~"Fa 7tZ. -~~omM~~j[~~~mB1~lli'~~~~~~~-~fl~~m=~. mW*~~.~.B1rmQ*'~B1~ • • ~~7mw.~m~-*,. tltW.lt*B11JHlrmQ m - ,~j,!fH\!:~Rl3NlBfJ!~~ (current account) 81)( ~ (19~tlD~~llHfj ), ji*~ (capital account) ~::fIm1NB1 ~~fGft 1Pll~1[ *mt~~~jM mp:g , ~~~~~1£~ ( International Monetary Fund, IMF) &mWlHT (World Bank)' WJ~~ft~tE~¥IJfflWj 1Pll~~~~.~,m~ • • B1~m'~ft.~ • • M.~~ • • *B1~ fF ' 1i~WJ §tEtii6WJft~B1*~~~JPl ~11!M.ff5iJB1~1'F ' tE.ltf)]+if:7St1[1t~ru'. ' ~~~j[tE.~*~~~ *l.i'yt~-tt1lJij , ~tJD I ,~ID::mgtil J ( 1948) 1'F~~~.jt J;J 0. 0. 0. 0. m~~.ft.B1~~~~~*~.,~~~m~lli~.~B1o~m~~B .~B1.~,1[~~~B1~m:~-nOOB~.B1.~~*&~~~B1R m~WJ(~~~~B1~ID::m~.)Mm~tltW.~@~B1~~mta,m~ ~-noox.!N~~.B1.~~*TTIJ1~m~!1~j[1;3{} 8 ~. lfZfWiIlth. ,. ijr!Ee7~j[~. ' 8 **§kti~!Ee ( l!1 Itt. ~I!!JJ E3 ~ ) , ~rmQx.fIA~~ , I*t±ff J (The Great Society) 1~fUgt. C~~rmQ ~::fmm'l!1Ittm~~@rmQ*m~~m* • • • ~lfZ.~~j[)' 8 fiik.!§.m .fl!M:f\~if:1-t ' ~~fDJtftl!rmQ*~tE~JJ!1 Triffin ~!lfjft&t1:Vf(j'f1: (fJf~~ , J;JWj*'tH~;ffi37U~j~;f*.ff5U 27P} ~¥1J7 -!:::01-tfJJ ' ::f~~ m~l!1 0. 26~fiI~ !lfjtE.7ffl. 0. 0. *~~~~i&ml!1 ~tE. '~~1~;ffi37U~j~**.ff5U~~~m*M,7:tm*l. 1971 if: 8 H 15 E3 Wfflj7~IPllB1wr*~~i&m '. j[~yt~ , ~~lB~t1fw;ffi37U~j~;f*.ff5U~.f'F. 0. 0. ~51. ~r::p-r~~lTw~j[~. ¥IJ71973if:3 H~.X.. Eric Helleiner, States and the Reemergence of Global Finance (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1994), pp.58-67. " Robert Triffin, Gold and the Dollar Crisis: The Future of Convertibility (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1960). Benjamin J. Cohen, "Balance-of-Payments Financing: Evolution of a Regime," International Organization, Vol. 36, No.2 (Spring 1982), pp. 457-478; Joanne Gowa, Closing the Gold Window: Domestic Politics and the End of Bretton Woods (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983); John S. Odell, U.S. International Monetary Policy: Markets, Power, and Ideas as Sources of Change (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982)..

(8) Wffli~*PJ tJl¥1tJ. '. :ffi:9rJ~~**lJIffiIJ.iEA~~W1l:. ~J!:t*J=.i~H~fHl!!:WrTT*. '. illzll~*~f@1t. :ffi:9rJ~~**lJIffirjZ.1~. ~'~~~E'. /Fj@J IMF fDtltfHJHr. px~£Jfr::E~~3E~f!t!B'J~P3. ~~3E~!11H'¥~;XEim~~. 28 0. , ~-tltW:9Hl~. ~~~3E~• • 'M~~~~~j@J*B'J.~am~B'Jm. fi.ffiIjPJ~~-fi?F.ffiIJ ffilJ~px7 -§'~~/F. ,. '. 0. : [li*~f¥ItJB'J '. ~3E~~~ifrtltJB'J. ~~~3E~Jif[ljLtB'JElftthb~. 0. ' i.ft1B'JlJI. 29~J!:tElftthb~PJ iM5. , Jt-§'~*,~MU'¥~i&miirrthb~31 , • • thb~~--§'~B'J.ff~*D,~~~-§.• • ~~m,.~m.(~~ jt~j?i ~ § E' ;t~~ ) fiE P"1-§'~B'J*,¥~Jtx~t1~f£t ' tJtiJE.~P"1 B'J~rm ' ~~i!j@J-!JtpxB'J*J=.i.tlD IMF ' tltW&lHr ' ~~mJUIHT (Bank of International Settlements) ~:rr-J!:t~~3E~iT~*f{1J ~.thb~mJElft ' illz/Ff~1:E:ffi:9rJ~~**lJIffiljfif~5m~ti~ (~ffI}IHltiJE) ; 33~/F{~j!~ tJWJB'J3E4;:1li:ffiIJltfi -~-§'~~~B'J~ffiIJ !Jt~B'J-§'~Elftthb~ffi?-~JiffJ R~-§'~~fim~~.B'JR~ou~.~.~~~~B'J,m • •ffijJEB'J' ~tiJE~*ffijJt57i-~m~ffif~B'JTm30. 0. 0. m~~B'JamW~~~3E.B'J~~ifrtltJffij8~m.'~B'Jpx~~j!~~~ -§'~B'Jtitll:. 0. " Bretton Woods Commission, Bretton Woods: Looking to the Future (Washington, D.C.: The Bretton Woods Commission, 1994). Martin S. Feldstein, International Economic Cooperation (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1988). Kathryn M. Dominguez and Jeffrey A. Frankel, Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work? (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1993); Yoichi Funabashi, Managing the Dollar: From the. Plaza to the Louvre, 2nd ed. (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1989). II. Wendy Dobson, Economic Policy Coordination: Requiem or Prologue? (Washington, D.C.: Institute for. International Economics, 1991); Martin S. Feldstein, International Economic Cooperation (Chicago, IL:. University of Chicago Press, 1988).. Morris Goldstein, The Case for an International Banking Standard (Washington, D.C.: Institute for. International Economics, 1997).. ,; Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929-1939 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986), '" Authur A. Stein, Why Nations Cooperate (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990)..

(9) ~,*:tMthif5c~. -. 413. -,~~~~-~*~~~~~~~~~~ ~ 17t.: ~ ~)!1 ~ I~- ~A. Ie .D<.. ~ 1"'.1 ~A. Ie tJ'j ,1'7 '1r. ~~~~~~~~m~~.~~nOO~o-~m~~~~~~~-~. ~~~.'ffl~~~~•• ±.~~.~M'~~®.~~~.'~~~ ~.~~~~~.~.~~.~o~-~ilim.~~¥OO~~a*~~~. .m~·~m~~~~~Ma*~~.'ffi~.~~~~~offl~~~m. :fom :ffi3iUfx~**ftftJU ,§ ED ~j[JT~~ , .11ffi*f±1tti:fIj~-r. ' m~~ @~ftW~.~B~~~~·~~~@~*.A.~~~~W~~~~E 'ili~~~~~*mm~. •••~~~~.~~mo~~,~*-~~. ~M r~ft1tJ' r~®1tJ' ~~ r.'if~£1tJ' ilim§~~~f~~*~JrJ ~~59i~~~.. 0. 36~ft~-r. '. ~:TC '. Bft ' ,~51-*~M~m~mt~~15l. .~~-~.~ft'~*M~~~~m~~~~~I5l~~A~~§.~ o~~~m.~ffl~~~59i~~M~~*~W~.R~~~~~*om. ~.~.*~~mt~~M~T'~M~59i~~~.~~R~~~~~~~. I3RftJU '. ifimWi~. r .*mt~~M J. 0. ~1r~J;). TfmPJgiflM. 0. _*mt~J!i!M~m~1r~' _*mt~, ~*tlJE' t)&~~~~~m~ .~tt,-. ~~R~~~~=o~w-~~m~mM~~~.*mt~,. ~=~.~;m~$~Mffi~'ifi~ft~M.T*~o=~.~R~~~ -. 0. ~~M~;f.&fJ Mundell-Flemming ~1iffJE~~ffi*. ~~ -. fiI J (Unholy Trinity) ;. 39M1Jo~§ EB~~~lJfBlWi. (Inconsistent Quartet; Padoa-Schioppa). 0. {9~$(0 ' $(0. 0. 381FfBlWi~. r ~tE/l. r ~thh~~lZ]m~ J. *_:zts:mt)7t~mt~ ,. " Jonathan Kirshner, Currency and Coercion (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995), pp. 64-82. " Richard N. Cooper, "Prolegomena to the Choice of an International Monetary System," International Organization, Vol. 29, No.1 (Winter 1975), pp. 63-97.. ,. Case M. Sprenkle, "The Case of the Missing Currency," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 4 (Fall 1993), pp. 175-184. " Robert A. Mundell, "Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol. 29, No.4 (November 1963), pp. 475-485; J. Marcus Fleming, "Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Paper (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Foundation, 1962). " Benjamin J. Cohen, "The Triad and the Unholy Trinity: Lessons for the Pacific Region," in Richard Riggott, Richard Leaver, and John Ravenhill, eds., Pacific Economic Relations in the 199Os: Cooperation or Conflict? (Boulder, Co: Lynne Rienner, 1993)..

(10) -~B~~*m.~aMB.~.~tt,~~~~~~.~~~am.OO ~ • • m~~~~.w-~:~*-~m~~~M.~B.(~~.~ ~), ~VqfU~J7;tfl~{ft. 0. jt$iilff.fijt;tflrnU~(J~7f.. '. J;)*~~~~*M. ~ojt~-~7f.~'~$~aM~.*~fl.~omff.ffl~mM&.°ft. •• $~aM'. ~~*mM~~.~'~~~~fflmff.~~7f..m.~ *~aM~fttMJ:tt~~.~. , frJ~lz;jlltttHillft$rJtltfkk~ ~§~ , ~* jt*m J;)7f:{£~!IW ' B~x~~JE.~ , B~~uUfHe~VqfU~?k~~:¥ tltff.fU?k~~-f~ft~tltff.?k~~~ 9}-1Jtift.<D*BJN~~ff~Ri~ , 0. 0. jt$7f.~fl~~*~aM~7f.~~M~m~T~,lltff.f7f..m.~~~~ ~VqT~~~VqfU~l~J;)MH'!f. 0. lz;jllt~jt$mJ;)ft{£~~~{~{4T. ' Blff. ~*~~JEm~~~~~VqaMB.~.~tt;~*~ff~m~~m~~ ~~VqaMB.~.~ttom~~~~~~_~omM~~~~~~M.. ~jt*m~ft{£~~olz;jllt~~.~'ffljt$V~~M.*~~mft? ~f~fl~~F",'1m *~BJ. 0. 0. *MHffl §. , tt5!f~)tji~*~*,!i!!~it*~. 4ott-Jtt;f#J~q:t~*~19~T*~. , jt$~iM~m. , jt*~ffiIJtQ;lEiJX~~15f{ 0. 41. ~*~~~~~~-Mm~(.$~~)~~~~'-M~*R~~ .~~JEW~W~Vq~M.~tt~oo.-~mo~miilM~*~~MBm ~~ffi9}-~M~M~*~~MB.~~ • • lli-Jtt;,.~~mM~*~ ~M~7f..m.J:Bq~1J~**J. 0. 42fi*l~~19ffJi!: 1982 4~r:t~. ,. ff.f~J:iJ~t±fl:;;~J1iJ!U,!i!~f*~JJlK~~~MB. ~~~~B.&tltfH~~~~jiHf~\J~MiEW;f§&. M~~,mM.~B.~~-4~~~~~. ' mfD~ff.fg§f!f* ' *6*J§iJXjt$7f.ilft ' j!i. °mM.*m~m.**~. ~J~*~@~~.oSM~*~~*r.Jr~J'~~M®~.W~. 5$. 0. t.<D**.~~~~~.§'t$Ul5f{ffiU. '. tQJ7;tJi!:*5$~~* El f~§'t$rJJ I5f{ffitJ. 0. '" John B. Goodman and Louis W. Pauly, "The Obsolescence of Capital Controls? Economic Management in an Age of Global Markets," World Politics, Vol. 46, No.1 (October 1993), pp. 50-82. " International Monetary Fund, "Control on Capital Flows: Experience with Quantitative Measures and Capital Flow Taxation," International Capital Markets (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1995), pp. 95-108. r. David M. Andrews, "Capital Mobility and State Autonomy: Toward a Structural Theory of International Monetary Relations," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 38, No.2 (June 1994), pp. 193-218..

(11) ~ ~i:IHk~. ~~~~~.~~.~~~.~ ~~~~~~~.~. ••**o. 415. ~,g~.m~ffl-~m.. •• ~.~oM~~~m~.~.~m~&~ft~~. •••*~@*'~~~B*aft~.gaft~U~~o~~~ ~~.aM~~~.§~.~••• ~.~~~'~~~~~~~~¥~ .~ffi'. .~m~~~~~~#'~~J.§m~~~~~~*~~~m~o.J ~~~aM~~@~1y~t51J1' Jl!~j(.$li. 0. ~?!T5JI~. ,. ~:a~J 1997 ifB*m.~;Itf!li&t1~~. ~~aM~~*,E!!$~~~.§~. *~mmili~~~~*'ffi~~M~$&. ,. r:p*$t51~~~. ••ili.~.~~~%oa~,. ~~~~.~~~~~~~.r:p,~~~~~~mg~~~mfi~~. no~~.~-~~m.~;Itf!~,~~~~~~~~,~~~g~fio~g. ~~~affm.~.m*~.~.~~~~.~,m~~~~~~~~R fi!fi~5$1t. 0 44. j:XFlH~~~:i'E.~~~~~~I1~.. 0. -.,~~~ft~~~.o-HOO~'~:i'E. §7t ' ~~:i'E.iJi~~~~~~. ••£*~~~~~~.*.. ~~£*(~~~.*~~~~.~~~~~~~m~.,~~~.~~ ~m~~~~~.),~~£*m~~;Itf!li&.~~~.~ft~~.~.. ~. 0. &L*I~~. ,. ~~.*~tif~£*&ill~£*m~~;Itf!li&~Ij,@~. ~oa~~~~~m~m~m~~M*MMoe~~,~~gr:p~*~~. ~~~OO~'$~~~~:i'E -E!.13:i'E.M~~f4t;tg~. ••~~-oomg~~m.M'illOO.M~m. , ati* '. 3t1'if~~f41'X'§~&ati*~~~A. ~,~&-~~m~.*o~oo~m.M~~~~~~.@ft.~;Itf!ffio. ~~.~m~~oom~~~~'.~.~M~~~~.~~~OO~~ " Ethan B. Kapstein, Governing the Global Economy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1994), pp. 129-154. " Raymond W. Baker, "The Biggest Loophole in the Free-Market System," Washington Quarterly, VoL 22, No.4 (Autumn 1999), pp. 29-46; Susan Strange, Mad Money (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1998), pp. 123-138, " Jeffry A. Frieden, "Invested Interests: the Politics of National Economic Policies in a World of Global Finance," International Organization, VoL 45, No.4 (Autumn 1991), pp, 425-451. .. Jeffrey A, Winters, "Power and the Control of Capital: World Politics, VoL 46, No.3 (April 1994), pp. 419-452; Stephan Haggard, Chung H. Lee, and Sylvia Maxfield, eds., The Politics of Finance in Developing Countries (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993).. ..........

(12) ...... 8"J ' ffiJl3. -f:::~£f:1~J;)*~H!tzDIIt. 0. 4/. ~E~~~*8"J~~~mffiJ§'~~~~8"J~.~~~~~~~~$. ~*8"JJjt~. EYffXf~. 0. E~~~*~*H!m:tJi!t±frtM;fU8"J~*. , illJ!!:~*j!!m~1ff8"J§±'t1:~flfT '. r ~t$~-jfj J. '. ~~illJ!!:~}f.fmBwUil*~. ~'.~~.OffiJl3.~.AD~~.m,§~m~.~·t±frtM~~Wm. m'ill~R~.mM~~~,~}f.f~~mm,~~m~WEmU • • ~ti ~~. , ill3Z.fri§f.1Xj!!mm ~8"Jr&:liJ ill fEei!t~* m:tJi!t±frtM;flj B"J~.th~ 0. 'F1U.t±tM~ fr~±~*. '~$; T:v:ltgXH!t±frtM;fU~*8"J~*fflt$. '. Wti~. , ~H±. :gXH!.mM9CiS±~8"J~* (f9ntzD~ttMUJ?dt~~~). , ;~7£. th~-}lUlwtzDIIt. 0. r ~g:~px~J1!~ J (endogenous growth theory) , -@~}f.ftzDf1M~f~ffi~~~~~ • ~~ • 1iff~~~ • ~:tXIDtI 0. fN:f1I*'¥~~if;li!8"J. .~0~M·ill@~*8"J~~~m~f.1X~8"J~~°t±fr~±~*~.~~ mmmJ!!:0#M·~l3.~~mM~.m~~I.e~~~~8"J~iSJ1!px. ~. , m~t±frfiJE illtf8"J*,¥~t±frf~14 • ~~J*mtIJJ8"J.*t!2mf1lfl&iJ[ 0. ~o~liJ8"J~*~IIt*~-JE~~WillJ!!:~I.·~~.8"J~~m°t±fr ~±~*~~~.mIU'~ffT:t:·. 0 49~~-*JttJT '. mJtl;)t;~~*1r:r)jn&. .~~~·~*~n~JE.*'~M~mM~~~&~*.~um~t±.. tM;fUi&1ff ; tzD*~ff:liJ.* '. ~ljM~~~JlJ18"JW~i&1ff. 0. ~IItrm~. , mt. liJ8"J~~~~'~~fr~illJ!!:)t;~~*8"J~~i&mi§f.1X**8"J~*o. j.::).LmfifJ§l.IiT~~~~fi[~~.jU8"Ji&mMUfi. 0. mlfrj~Ij~@]Rii~. J!!:1iff~ • • ,mJ!!:1iff~ • • mmH!~~~~~m8"Jrm~tt~~JofX* l7 . Sylvia Maxfield, Governing Capital, op. cit.. " Dani Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Institute for International Organization, 1997); Paulette Kurzer, Business and Banking (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett and Peter Lange, "Political Responses to Interdependence: What's 'Left' for the Left?" International Organization, Vol. 45, No.4 (Autumn 1991), pp. 539-564. " Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998). Thomas Oatley, "How Constraining Is Capital Mobility? The Partisan Hypothesis in an Open Economy," 3C. American Journal ofPolitical Science, Vol. 43, No.4 (October 1999), pp. 1003-1027..

(13) ~. I. ~-i~ifklii. 417. : ffjU~±~8"~HjJf~ , ~mi&~fHff~ , t)J~.i&Yf1t±~ ¥~m~o~~m~~.+7t.*,~.~~*~~~~.o • • ~~m. 3&~~J!:!;;~~7t~-=.~. tH~ttm~~~~~ffio. ~~±~~m~~~~¥$.~~~-mom.~~.~H~~~m ~~~~7t~OOnOOo§~'~tt~*±~~~~m*~fl~:~~~. ~~~~~~T,~~~~-• •*±~.~~.:~~~~um~.~. ~±~.*±~?~ • • ~~-Ui&~mft~~I~~H~~~n.* m~;r~~m~-~~*±~? .~jt~~~*ftft~~*±~? B*~~~ ji.*ti~. ? *ii~Hi~?. ~1~~~fO~1r~f~jjJjt§H. 0. '. 51~~f!. ' ;f:\GJlJT t))!9:jjUfJi!tH*2ti~ , ~~~. ~.*~mfEl~~~'Jr1it!!*Qti~~W!~.*. 0. , *Q~~jitij:tfElt!!JHIHr.~ r J 52!IItU!'\~{~~lfl~:1E::f~liJi!t?~ 53ttJlJT~~~ti~~.*±~ , m ~~~~flm:1E Jt;X ' f[fJ~~~~~.~FH*~T ' ~1r~fflJg.~PRl& 1t~t~~.~~.H* ? m~~.~~• •mfiutzo IMF ' t!!W~rr:9JZff:9JZ m' tzD*ffB"J~j5~.~ffh~{t~tl~ff:l13 ? 54¥'4;X ' ~~~.fO~lHi~jjrJ ~1997£f-£f-$*Q~.m.iiJ1tl~ 0. 0. 0. ffi.,~.mrr,tJt~$~mrrff:l13~m~'~.~~£f-ili~~-~.. ¥. 0. 55. ~oott.~.*~~~~,~~~.m.E~~~~M~T'.OO. *~ftD~OO.~?~f!~7t~OOm~.~O§~~~.~OO~~.*.. " Colin Crouch and Wolfgang Streeck, eds., Political Economy of Modern Capitalism (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1997). World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993). Paul Krugman, "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No.6 (NovemberlDecember 1994), pp.62-78; Krugman, The Return ofDepression Economic (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999). 54 . Barry Eichengreen, Toward a New International Financial Architecture (Washington. D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1999).. u. Alan S. Blinder. Central Banking in Theory and Practice (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998); Louis W. Pauly, Who Elected the Bankers (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 1997); Maxwell J. Fry, Charles A.E Goodhart. and Alvaro Almeida, Central Banking in Developing Countries (New York: Routledge, 1996);. Marjorie Deane and Robert Pringle, The Central Banks (New York: Viking, 1994); John B. Goodman,. Monetary Sovereignty: The Politics of Central Banking in Western Europe (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992)..

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(15) ~. l. Il ~:t-MHb€1 ~f~. , ftmtfj-J!:l:;ftttmf~iffR~Im8'JIl~. 0. ,. 419. 1'11EfJHVtrrn~. .tt~iffR,~m~~~ft~*~~ffim,m~MrriffR~@~.~m* 8'J~;j93Kt1. 0. fjtitzDWrOOffi1~Garrett8'JiffR.~jt~rgg*{JJf!gtE~~ii*mUEfJ. 8'JmlBT«t1;jt±~~±8'JM1:f±~. ~Pi-. '. , f.8~jt~~*rf18'J»M&~f~fjtlPi-. 0. §7ffl~IiIl~~tfl.jf;]fgi!~~~Ml8'Jm:~!&m~~~MI#Jti~~~~IiIl~. ~8'JiF1~~~. 0. {8lE~~fD~PfEB~~oomfl;(. ,. 1z;,:J6P*~;f§[PJ. 0. ft. ~~~.M*8'JiffR+ftm.°tEmJ!:l:;m*iffRrf1'B*W.~M~~m fbt~ffR8'J1~*. · jtftft~*~{lJt§tty T~~ ;tt;x • ft~.f4~~1:f8'J~ffR 0. &~m~~8'J.~,rgg~~IiIl!&m8'JiffR~3~&W~~~~.·BR~ ~.·~~m~tl~.mL~o!&m.*~tErgg~~IiIl!&mmnoo~iff ~,~~tt~~~~8'JiiM&nffiflffl~~o~~'ft~.tErgg~~IiIl!&. mmf~iffR~J~rf1. '. ~~!&mWrggf*J!&m8'Jft!ff~iiWT~~. ~!&m8'J~~tfl~iiWT~~. 0. ~~. ,. • tt~!&mWrgg. ft~.~~1t (JJ\!tE~~&~~1t~±~. ~m~IiIl8'J~~ft)~~m.-8'J~~·_m~**~~~·m~~@. W*~-.olz;,:J~re~~1t~~*ftg.~·m~~ft~tt~rgg8'J!&m& I!fl~~~U8'J~m. 0.

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