MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN
This publication is jointly published by the Macao Economic Services, the Statistics and Census Service, and the Monetary Authority of Macao. The Macao Economic
Services prepares and provides the analysis on World Economy and External Trade and the data in tables I.1, I.2 and II.7 to II.10. The Monetary Authority of Macao prepares and provides the analysis on Money and Finance
and the data in tables VIII.1 to VIII.5. The Statistics and Census Service prepares and provides the remaining analysis and data.
For further information, please contact the Documentation and Information Centre of the Statistics and Census Service.
Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.
2
n dQuarter 2 0 0 6
English Version
Editor : DSEC October 2006, Macao
Typesetting and table design : DSEC Printing : DSEC
INDEX
THE WORLD ECONOMY... 7 ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY
I. OVERVIEW... 13
II. MAJOR SEGMENTS OF THE ECONOMY
A. EXTERNAL TRADE... 14 B. GAMING AND TOURISM ... 17 C. CONSUMPTION AND PRICES ... 20 D. LABOUR MARKET... 22 E. INVESTMENTS ... 23 F. PUBLIC ACCOUNTS ... 25 G. MONEY AND FINANCE... 26 H. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS... 28 III. CONCLUSION ... 28
STATISTICAL TABLES
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON) ... 33 2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (COMPARISON WITH
PRECEDING PERIOD) ... 34 3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO ... 34 4. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MACAO ... 35
II. EXTERNAL TRADE
1. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF EXTERNAL TRADE ... 36 2. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF IMPORTS ... 37 3. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF EXPORTS... 38 4. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS ... 39 5. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF RE-EXPORTS ...40 6. STRUCTURE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS AND RE-EXPORTS BY MARKET AND TYPE OF
GOODS...40 7. DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND GARMENTS TO THE USA ...41-42 8. DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND GARMENTS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION ... 43 9. EXPORT ORDERS ON HAND AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK OF SELECTED
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES... 44 10. EXPORT PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK OF THE NEXT 6 MONTHS OF SELECTED
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES...42
III. TOURISM
1. VISITOR ARRIVALS AND HOTEL GUESTS... 45 2. VISITOR SPENDING PER CAPITA ... 46 IV. PRICES AND CONSUMPTION
1. PRICE INDEXES ... 47 2. RETAIL SALES ... 47 V. POPULATION, LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT
1. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT ... 48 2. MEDIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT INCOME OF THE EMPLOYED POPULATION... 48 3. EMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY ... 49 4. JOB VACANCIES ... 49 5. UNEMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY AND REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT ...50 6. UNDEREMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY AND REASONS FOR
UNDEREMPLOYMENT ...51 7. NON-RESIDENT WORKERS ...51 VI. CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE
1. PRIVATE SECTOR CONSTRUCTION ... 52 2. REAL ESTATE ... 53 3. PUBLIC WORKS ... 53
VII. PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
1. PUBLIC REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE ... 54 2. PUBLIC REVENUE ... 55 3. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ... 56 4. PUBLIC INVESTMENTS ... 56 VIII. MONEY AND FINANCE
1. MONETARY SURVEY ... 57 2. RESIDENT DEPOSITS ... 58 3. CREDIT TO DOMESTIC PRIVATE SECTOR – SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION ... 59 4. EXCHANGE RATES OF THE MACAO PATACA AGAINST MAJOR CURRENCIES AND
EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDEX OF MACAO PATACA ... 59 5. INTEREST RATES OF THE MACAO PATACA... 59
IX. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1. NEWLY INCORPORATED COMPANIES AND DISSOLVED COMPANIES ...60 2. TRANSPORT...61 3. COMMUNICATIONS ...61 4. CONSUMPTION OF WATER, ELECTRICITY, FUELS AND CEMENT ... 62 5. DEPARTURES AND OUTBOUND TRAVEL OF MACAO RESIDENTS ... 62
THE WORLD ECONOMY
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Entering the second quarter of 2006, the world economy slowed down from the upsurge in the first quarter but still continued to grow at a steady and fairly fast pace. The economic performance varied in different countries, of which the US consumption and demand for investment remained vigorous; the Euro zone demonstrated good performance while developing countries in the Asian region kept a constant growth. Along with the steady and fast global economic growth, unemployment rate in major countries and regions was gradually dropping, stimulating a soar growth in consumption, investment, imports and exports. However, problems that constrained growth of the world economy persisted such as fluctuation of high international oil prices, rising of overall price level, expanding inflationary pressure, global interest rate hikes, intensified global trade imbalances and depreciation of the US Dollar, etc. It is forecasted that the world economy in 2006 maintained in a fairly fast trend.
In the May 2006 edition of the Economic Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expressed that the world economy was able to withstand shocks and maintain momentum. Therefore, the economic growth forecast for all OECD members was marked up 0.2% to 3.1% in 2006 and maintained at 2.9% in 2007. For the Euro zone, the growth forecast was adjusted up from 2.1% to 2.2% in 2006 and scaled down to 2.1% in 2007.
Growth projections for Japan was both tuned up 2.0% to 2.8% in 2006 and 2.2% in 2007, while forecast for the US was revised from 3.5% to 3.6% in 2006, and regulated down to 3.1% in 2007. In addition, the growth forecast for the world trade volume (goods and services) for 2006 was rectified from 9.1% to 9.3%.
The US economy registered a robust growth in the first quarter of 2006; however, under the impacts of increasing interest rates and fluctuation of high oil prices, the economic growth in the second quarter apparently slowed down. Generally, the US economy will grow steadily with a favourable prospect in the second half of the year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate fell from 3.7% in the first quarter to 3.5% a in the second quarter, and the quarter-to-quarter variationb slumped from 5.6% in the first quarter, which was the highest since the third quarter of 2003, to 2.5% in the second quarter of 2006. Private consumption expenditure and private domestic investment expanded 3.0% and 7.6% respectively. As regards external trade, dampened by rapid increases of energy prices coupled with a weak composite exchange rate for the US dollar, the growth of the total value of imports of goods fell from 14.3% in the first quarter to 12.9% in the second quarter, whilst that of exports of goods shrank from 14.2% in the first quarter to 13.3% in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve announced a string of 4 interest rate hikes in the first half of the year and, on 29 June, pushed the federal funds rate to 5.25%, its highest level in five years.
The tightening monetary policy kept inflation under control to a certain extent; however, high oil
a Unless otherwise specified, all rates of change mentioned in this analysis are comparisons of the second quarter of 2006 with the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
b Quarter-to-quarter growth refers to the rate of change of the reference quarter over the previous quarter, i.e. the comparison between two consecutive quarters.
prices revived up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4.0%. Meanwhile, the employment market improved further, with the unemployment rate lowered by 0.4 percentage point over the preceding quarter to 4.6%. Fiscal deficits, widening trade imbalances and slowing down of the housing market were considered the main issues that hindered the economic growth in the US.
The economy in the Euro zone started to rebound at a faster pace, in which consumption increased distinctly, business investment was brisk and import and export trade maintained a favourable growth. GDP registered an increase of 2.4%, up 0.4 percentage point over the previous quarter. Unemployment rate fell to a 3-year low level at 7.9%, down 0.7 percentage point compared with the same period of last year, directly boosting consumer confidence. Attributed to the favourable external economic environment, exports of goods maintained in a fairly fast pace since the swift boost in the first quarter and achieved a 9.7% growth in the second quarter, up 3.6 percentage points, while accelerating the economic growth in the Euro zone. It is worth to note that CPI still recorded a 2.5% growth even after the European Central Bank started to raise its key interest rates since the end of 2005. The increase was higher than the average growth rate in the preceding four quarters and exceeded the 2.0% inflation level set up by the European Central Bank for a consecutive twelve-month time.
In Germany, GDP growth in the second quarter shrank to merely 1.0%, down abruptly from 3.1% in the first quarter, which was mainly caused by the substantial contractions in private consumption expenditure, corporate fixed capital investment growth, government final consumption expenditure and imports and exports growth. Among them, the growth of private consumption expenditure dropped from 1.5% to -0.2%, while those of corporate fixed capital investment and government final consumption expenditure fell from 7.4% and 2.1% in the first quarter to 1.8% and 0.8% respectively. Similarly, imports and exports of goods dropped respectively from 9.3% and 14.3% to 8.9% to 9.3% in the second quarter. The overall employment situation improved, but unemployment rate was still high and stood at 8.1%. In UK, the economy remained stable in an upward trend. Economic growth in the second quarter reached 2.6%; the manufacturing industry increased by 0.6% over the previous quarter. Suffered from the decrease in production of the mining industry, the overall industrial production inched up by only 0.6%. In contrary, the servicing industry registered a faster growth, up 1.0% from the first quarter, of which retail sales showed a strong increase. The values of total imports and exports expanded 23.7% and 24.3% respectively over the same period of last year. The employment situation worsened with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, up 0.8 percentage point. In France, the economic growth accelerated to 2.6%, mainly fuelled by the surge in fixed capital investment. Private consumption remained weak, while the values of total imports and exports climbed up 10.0% and 9.5% respectively. The CPI went up 1.8%; the employment market slightly improved, but unemployment rate remained high at 9.1%.
With export trade as its primary economic pillar, the Asia economy maintained in a robust upward trend under favourable external economic environment and growing demand for exports.
However, persistent high oil prices raised the costs of production and living, resulting in different level of increases of the CPI in the Asian countries. Meanwhile, regional economic growth risks were enlarged owing to the global hikes of interest rates and the weakening of the US dollar against currencies in major Asian Pacific countries. In Japan, the economy was recovering though the economic growth slowed down in the second quarter to 2.0%. Corporate investment in equipment and private consumption rose 9.8% and 1.9% respectively, while imports and exports of goods expanded 18.8% and 14.7% respectively. The employment market improved, with the unemployment rate dropped further to 4.2%. The formerly decreasing CPI rebounded and recorded growth in two consecutive quarters, indicating a get-away from deflation. The economic prospect will rely on the impacts of the ending of the zero interest rate policy by the Japanese Central Bank.
In the Republic of Korea, economic growth was 5.3% in the second quarter, down from the four-year high rate at 6.1% in the first quarter. Industrial production growth stood high at 9.0%;
imports and exports of goods surged 14.5% and 16.3% respectively. CPI rose 2.3% while unemployment rate was 3.4%.
In Singapore, the economy slowed down to an appropriate level of 8.1% in the second quarter from the surge of 10.8% in the preceding quarter. The overall economic growth in the first half of the year reached 9.4%. Expect construction, the rest of the industries registered notably growth, of which manufacturing rose 12.5%; wholesale and retail increased 10.1%, and financing and business service swelled 9.5% and 6.4% respectively. Imports and exports of goods sustained its strong position and soared 14% and 17% respectively. On the other hand, unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.9% and CPI edged up 1.2%. In Taiwan, China, GDP registered an increase of 4.6%. Attributed to the favourable external environment where the global economy maintained a steady growth at a fairly fast pace and world trade accelerated, growth of imports and exports of goods recorded 9.8%
and 13.9% respectively. Meanwhile, exports stimulated the manufacturing industry to expand apparently by 8.7%. Nevertheless, private consumption and corporate fixed assets investment shrank. CPI rose by 1.5%, while employment situation in the first half of the year remained stable, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%.
The Hong Kong economy eased off to 5.2% in the second quarter, down from the desirable growth at 8.0% in the first quarter. This was mainly caused by the slump of imports and exports of goods from 13.8% and 12.1% in the previous quarter to 7.8% and 5.2% respectively, and the decline in growth of gross fixed capital formation from 7.6% to 4.3%. The employment market continued to improve, with the unemployment rate remained at 5.0% since the fourth quarter of 2005. Furthermore, increases in asset prices brought about a wealth effect and boosted consumption confidence. Consequently, private consumption increased 5.0%, higher than the 4.5% in the first quarter, while CPI grew 2.1%.
In Mainland China, based on the economic growth at around 10% in three consecutive years, GDP in the first half of 2006 rose to 10.9%, up 0.9 percentage point over the same period of last year. Economic growth in the second quarter reached 11.4%. The overheating fixed assets investment surged 29.8% in the first half of the year, up 4.4 percentage points compared with the same period of 2005. The actual foreign investment in the first six months was USD 28.428 billion, down 0.47%. In the second quarter, the values of total imports and exports of goods climbed up 18.4% and 24.1% respectively, with a trade deficit of USD 38.07 billion. At the end of June 2006, Mainland China’s foreign exchange reserve reached USD 941.1 billion, an increase of USD 66 billion compared with the end of March.
GDP of major countries and territories (Year-on-year rate of change)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
USA Euro Zone Japan M ainland China Hong Kong
%
2006 Q1 2006 Q2
ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY
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I. Overview
In the second quarter of 2006, Macao’s economy rose 16.3% in real terms and 22.6% in nominal terms, accounting for a real growth of 17.7% and a nominal growth of 23.4% of the local economy in the first half of the year, which was mainly driven by investment and exports.
As regards external demand, both exports of gaming services and visitor spending (gaming expenses excluded) recorded a double-digit growth, and exports of goods rebounded substantially.
In terms of internal demand, employment situation remained favourable and the continuous rise in median monthly employment earnings stimulated private consumption to increase. Overall investment continued to grow at a strong pace as there were a number of on-going large-scale construction projects in the private sector.
The following is the highlights of the local major economic segments in the second quarter of 2006 and in the first half of the year as compared with the same period of 2005:
1. Imports and exports of goods rose notably, the value of total exports in the second quarter of 2006 grew 43.3% in nominal terms. As the major merchandise in exports, garment went up 64.7% in export value. In terms of markets, exports to the US and the EU increased 42.4% and 212.7% respectively, while exports to Mainland China rose 9.8%. On the other hand, the value of total imports rose 30.2% in nominal terms. In particular, imports of consumer goods, raw materials & semi-manufactures and fuels & lubricants rose 39.0%, 31.7% and 27.0%
respectively. The combined import and export information showed a visible trade deficit of MOP 4.12 billion, widening from MOP 3.55 billion in the second quarter of 2005 and MOP 2.93 billion in the first quarter of 2006. In the first half of 2006, exports and imports of goods grew 40.0% and 29.4% in nominal terms respectively, with a visible trade deficit of MOP 7.04 billion.
2. Exports of gaming services increased 10.0% in real terms. Number of visitor arrivals rose 15.9%, among which hotel overnight guests increased 9.7%. Per-capita spending of visitors (gaming expenses excluded) rose 10.0%. On the whole, exports of services recorded a real growth of 12.1% and imports of services registered a real increase of 14.9%. In the first half of 2006, as gross gaming receipts increased 12.9%, visitor arrivals rose 16.8% and visitor per-capita spending expended for two consecutive quarters, exports and imports of services recorded real growth of 14.1% and 13.7% respectively.
3. Unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percentage point to 3.8%. Median monthly employment earnings increased 12.9% to MOP 6,438. The rise in Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated from the first quarter of 2006 to 6.1%. Private consumption expenditure grew 6.5%
and government final consumption expenditure rose 5.1%, both in real terms. In the first half of 2006, the Composite CPI increased 5.8%; private consumption expenditure and government
final consumption expenditure went up in real terms 6.7% and 3.5% respectively.
4. For investment in equipment in real terms, the private sector grew 20.5% while the public sector diminished 15.0%. For investment in construction in real terms, the private sector soared by 84.8% but public works declined 3.0%. Data of equipment and construction investment together showed that overall investment rose 54.8% in real terms. On the other hand, the number of newly incorporated companies and their registered capital dropped 8.0%
and 56.7% respectively. In the first half of 2006, overall investment increased 60.1% in real terms while the number of newly incorporated companies and their registered capital dropped 2.1% and 13.7% respectively.
5. In public accounts, total revenue expanded 20.0%, which was brought about by the increases of 14.1% in gaming tax revenue and 173.2% in property income. Total expenditure rose 14.2%, mainly driven by the increase of investment. The fiscal surplus amounted to MOP 3.63 billion, up from MOP 3.03 billion in the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, total public revenue and expenditure rose 18.2% and 6.4% respectively, with a fiscal surplus of MOP 6.66 billion.
II. Major Segments of the Economy
aA. External Trade
Imports and Exports
External trade value of Macao in the second quarter of 2006 amounted to MOP 15.25 billion, up 34.7%. Both imports and exports registered significant growths, where imports surged up 30.2%
to MOP 9.68 billion, higher than the 28.5% recorded in the previous quarter, and growth in exports widened from 36.4% to 43.3%, amounting to MOP 5.57 billion. The export-import ratio was 57.5%, higher than the 52.2% in the same quarter of 2005 but lower than the 62.0% registered in the preceding quarter. The trade deficit widened from MOP 3.55 billion in the same quarter of 2005 to MOP 4.12 billion.
As Macao’s two major export markets, the US and EU registered favourable growths. The value of exports to the US increased by 42.4% to MOP 2.55 billion, while that to the EU soared 212.7% to MOP 1.12 billion. This was mainly caused by the remarkable growths in exports of textiles and garments to the two markets. Meanwhile, the values of exports to Mainland China and
a Unless otherwise specified, all rates of change are in nominal terms and on the year-on-year basis, i.e. comparisons of the second quarter of 2006 with the same quarter of 2005.
Hong Kong went up 9.8% and 4.4% respectively, but those to Taiwan and Japan slid 17.4% and 7.1% respectively. In terms of types of goods exported, the value of clothing and other textiles products, which made up 73.9% of the total export value, rose 46.1%, whilst the value of other exports increased 35.9%.
In the first half of 2006, imports and exports of goods amounted to MOP 17.38 billion and MOP 10.34 billion respectively, up 29.4% and 40.0%, leading to a trade deficit of MOP 7.04 billion.
Domestic Exports
In the second quarter of 2006, domestic exports, which accounted for 71.4% of the value of total exports, increased 62.7% to MOP 3.97 billion. Clothing and other textile products, which made up 88.5% of total domestic exports, went impressively up 64.7% in value. Among them, exports to the US rose 41.4% and those to the EU shot up 238.8%, which were presumably due to the uncertain factors faced by Mainland China in her exports of garments and textiles to the US and EU markets.
Domestic exports were still concentrated in the formerly restricted textile and garment products, whose value grew 68.5% to occupy 78.1% of the value of total domestic exports. Among this, the value of exports to the US grew 38.6% and that to the EU surged 278.0%.
In terms of domestic exports of the formerly unrestricted garment and textile products, total export value increased by 40.3%, of which exports to the US and EU grew 64.8% and 10.6%
respectively.
Exports (Year-on-year rate of change)
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2
%
Total exports USA EU
In terms of non-textile products, the export value of footwear, which made up 2.9% of the total domestic exports, rocketed 1,126.4%. In contrast, exports of machinery, apparatus and parts, which merely constituted 0.4% of the total domestic exports, were falling in recent quarters, from 12.4%
in the second quarter of 2005 to 51.1%.
In addition, results from the Industrial Export Survey of the second quarter of 2006 indicated that the average length of time of the orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers was 3.1 months, up 3.3% over the same quarter of last year but fell 3.1% from the 3.2 months in the previous quarter. Among the interviewed manufacturers, 31.3% and 11.0% predicted slight and substantial growth respectively in the domestic industrial exports in the next six months, whereas 18.1% and 39.6% predicted very slow and stagnant growth respectively. In general, 42.3% of the interviewed manufacturers expressed optimism towards the prospects of exports in the coming half year, down 9.8 percentage points over the preceding quarter.
In the first six months of 2006, domestic exports, constituting 72.9% of the value of total exports, increased by 55.3% to MOP 7.54 billion, among which the values of exports to the US and EU rose 46.6% and 141.5% respectively. Orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers averaged 3.2 months.
Re-exports
Re-exports, which made up 28.6% of the value of total exports in the second quarter of 2006, expanded 10.4%. Mainland China and Hong Kong remained to be the two largest re-export markets, constituting 51.9% and 25.5% of the value of total re-exports respectively. Among re-exports, the value to Mainland China rose 10.4% but that to Hong Kong went down 2.9%.
In terms of the types of goods, the main re-export merchandise was raw materials &
semi-manufactures, which made up 52.6% of the value of total re-exports, fell slightly by 0.8%;
re-exports of consumer goods and fuels & lubricants increased by 73.1% and 37.5% respectively, while capital goods decreased by 11.5%.
In the first half of the year, re-exports, which took up 27.1% of the value of total exports, revved up 10.8%. This was mainly fuelled by the increases in consumer goods and fuels &
lubricants, which rose by 61.0% and 47.8% respectively.
Imports
Imports continued to increase in the second quarter of 2006. The growth of import value expanded from 28.5% in the previous quarter to 30.2%. Mainland China was still the largest source of imports for Macao. Imports from Mainland China, which accounted for 46.4% of the value of total imports, soared 41.6%. As regards other import markets, the values from the EU, Hong Kong
and the US went up 15.9%, 39.7% and 72.3% respectively, while those from Japan and Mainland China fell 0.9% and 7.5% respectively.
In terms of the types of goods, consumer goods, which made up 37.1% of the value of total imports and served as the major imports, rose 39.0% in value. The second major imports were raw materials & semi-manufactures, which occupied 36.0% of the value of total imports and increased 31.7%. Capital goods and fuels & lubricants, which accounted for 16.6% and 10.2% of the value of total imports, rose 13.0% and 27.0% respectively.
B. Gaming and Tourism
The gaming and tourism sector continued to perform well in the second quarter of 2006.
Exports of gaming services grew 10.0% and total visitor spending (gaming expenses excluded) expanded 15.7%, both in real terms, accumulating to a real growth of 12.3% and 17.9%
respectively in the first half of 2006.
Gaming
Gross gaming receipts (gratuities excluded) reached MOP 12.9 billion in the second quarter, up 11.0% over the same period of 2005. In the first half of 2006, gross gaming receipts (gratuities excluded) amounted to MOP 25.49 billion, an increase of 12.9% compared with the same period of the previous year.
Imports and the main components (Year-on-year rate of change)
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2
%
Total imports Consumer goods Raw materials and semi-manufactures
Visitor Arrivals
Visitor arrivals in the second quarter of 2006 rose 15.9% to 5,174,462. This was mainly fuelled by the increase of visitors from Hong Kong and Mainland China, who amounted to 1,595,545 and 2,847,692, an increase of 23.1% and 13.7% respectively. Among the visitors from Mainland China, 1,315,488, representing 46.2% of the total, travelled under the Individual Visit Scheme. On the other hand, visitors from Taiwan, China registered a decrease of 8.9% in the second quarter to 355,234. This is the third consecutive quarter that recorded a drop of visitors from Taiwan since the fourth quarter of 2005. In addition, the number of same-day visitors rose 14.0% to 2,674,201, constituting 51.7% of the total number of visitor arrivals. In the first half of 2006, the number of visitor arrivals grew 16.8% to 10,422,480, of which 52.1% was same-day visitors, up 15.6%.
Analyzed by mode of transport, arrivals by land (59.3% of total visitors), by sea (34.8%) and by air (5.9%) in the second quarter went up 16.7%, 14.9% and 12.9% respectively.
In the second quarter, inbound visitors in package tours increased 10.2% to 719,876 over the same period of 2005; and the accumulated figure for the first half of 2006 rose 17.6% year-on-year to 1,454,698.
Gross gaming receipts (gratuities excluded)
10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M OP billion
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
Gross gaming receipts Year-on-year rate of change
Hotels
The average hotel occupancy rate in the second quarter increased 3.1 percentage points over the same period of 2005 to 70.3%, accounting for an average hotel occupancy rate of 70.5% in the first half of the year, up 4.0 percentage points. In the second quarter, the three-star hotels had the highest occupancy rate of 78.5%; the number of hotel guests recorded a year-on-year growth of 9.7% to 1,092,210, lifting the overall number of hotel guests in the first half of the year by 13.3% to 2,159,068. The average length of stay of hotel guests remained stable at 1.2 nights in the second quarter and in the first half of 2006.
Total visitor arrivals and year-on-year rate of change
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M illion persons
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
Total visitor arrivals Year-on-year rate of change
Number of visitors by major origins
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M illion persons
M ainland China Hong Kong Taiwan, China
Visitor Spending
Visitor per-capita spending dropped from MOP 1,562 in the first quarter to MOP 1,468, but up 10.0% compared with the same period of 2005. Visitors from Mainland China still topped the list with their per-capita spending at MOP 2,875, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The spending of visitors from Taiwan, China rose 15.9% and that from Hong Kong went up 10.6%. Per-capita shopping spending of visitors expanded 22.1% to MOP 668, which was mainly spent on “Chinese pastry, candy and food” (26.2% of total shopping spending) and “Clothing and fabrics” (17.8%).
Per-capita non-shopping spending grew 1.7% to MOP 800. Of the non-shopping items, spending was mainly on “Food and beverage” and “Accommodation”, which accounted for 39.5% and 36.9%
of the total non-shopping spending respectively.
C. Consumption and Prices
Private Consumption
Private consumption expenditure continued to rise, with a real growth of 6.5% in the second quarter of 2006. Within this, household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market grew 7.6%, but household final consumption expenditure abroad dropped 2.2%, both in real terms. In the first half of 2006, private consumption expenditure had a real growth of 6.7%.
Per-capita spending of visitors by major origins
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M OP
M ainland China Hong Kong Taiwan, China
Retail Sales
Total retail sales rose 2.5% to MOP 2.54 billion over the preceding quarter, or an increase of 20.3% compared with the same period of 2005. Among this, sales of “Watches and jewellery”,
“Adult clothing” and “Supermarkets” registered the highest growth of 55.7%, 27.1% and 20.7%
respectively. In terms of sales value, “Motor vehicles”, “Watches and jewellery” and “Department stores” were the three largest and reached MOP 327 million, MOP 322 million and MOP 303 million respectively, with proportions of 12.9%, 12.7% and 11.9%. In the first half of 2006, total retail sales reached MOP 5.02 billion, a year-on-year growth of 18.0%, of which “Watches and jewellery” recorded the highest sales and growth rate, at MOP 634 million and 51.0% respectively.
Prices
The Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.1% over the same period of 2005 to 108.1.
Except for “Communications” and “Clothing and footwear”, which decreased 3.3% and 2.8%
respectively, the indexes of all other sections of goods and services registered increases. “Housing and fuel” showed the most apparent growth, up 13.7%, followed by “Education”, up 9.3%. The Composite CPI in the first half of 2006 expanded 5.8%. GDP deflator, the main gauge of overall price changes in Macao, rose 5.5% in the second quarter to 112.5.
Sales value of major categories of retail sector
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M OP million
M otor vehicles Supermarkets Department stores
D. Labour Market
In the second quarter of 2006, total labour force grew 13.3% to 274 thousand. Employed population expanded 13.8% to 264 thousand, making up 96.2% of the total labour force. Among the employed population, “Construction” recorded the highest growth of 46.9% and reached 31 thousand, while “Community and personal services” (including the gaming sector) had the largest share, occupying 19.1% or a number of 50 thousand.
Unemployment rate edged down by 0.4 percentage point to 3.8% over the same period of 2005.
Unemployed population grew 2.1% to 10 thousand. Analyzed by the industry previously engaged, the majority of the unemployed came from “Manufacturing” and “Hotels and restaurants”, accounting for 18.5% and 18.3% respectively of the total unemployed. Underemployment rate was 1.2%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage point.
The overall median monthly employment earnings were MOP 6,438, up 12.9%. Among the various economic activities, employment earnings of “Construction” and “Wholesale and retail trade” registered marked increases of 26.4% and 13.9% respectively.
Prices (Year-on-year rate of change)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2
%
Composite CPI GDP deflator
E. Investments
Investments in Construction and Equipment
The construction sector continued to prosper in the second quarter of 2006, with a remarkable growth of 72.5% in real terms. This was coupled with a real growth of 19.4% in investment in equipment to bring about a real growth of 54.8% in the overall investment. Among this, private investment surged 61.5% but government investment dropped 4.2%. Overall investment in the first half of the year recorded a real growth of 60.1%, in which investments in construction and equipment rose 81.9% and 19.1% respectively in real terms.
In the private sector, the number of buildings completed, the related number of units and gross floor area increased by 4.3 times, 26.8 times and 52.2 times respectively. However, the number of buildings started, the related number of units and gross floor area were reduced by 47.1%, 50.3%
and 87.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the on-going constructions of the gaming and tourism facilities led the private construction investment to surge. In summary, private investments in construction and equipment went up 84.8% and 20.5% in real terms respectively; public investments in construction and equipment shrank 3.0% and 15.0% respectively, both in real terms.
Employed population and unemployment rate
190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 Thousand persons
3 4 5
%
Employed population Unemployment rate
Transactions on Real Estate
The number of building units transacted in the second quarter of 2006 totalled 5,594, down 49.8%, and the respective value of the transactions declined 29.4% to MOP 4.69 billion. In terms of the number of transactions, offices and industrial units decreased 56.3% and 55.3% respectively;
residential units (68.6% of the total number of units transacted) dropped 43.9% to 3,835 units. In the first half of 2006, the total number of building units transacted was 10,397, down 46.6%
compared with the same period of 2005; the total value of the transactions was MOP 8.06 billion, down 33.7%.
The number of mortgage loans on real estate transactions was 1,304, amounting to MOP 1.18 billion, down 58.0% and 44.1% respectively over the same period of 2005. The number of combined mortgages topped the list, comprising 25.7% of the total, followed by loans between MOP 300 thousand to MOP 500 thousand, loans between MOP 500 thousand to MOP 1 million and loans between MOP 100 thousand to MOP 300 thousand, making up 22.6%, 20.2% and 19.6%
respectively of the total number of loans. In the first half of 2006, the total number of mortgage loans on real estate transaction was 2,351, amounting to MOP 2.06 billion, down 56.6% and 47.0%
respectively.
Gross floor areas of private buildings started and completed
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 Thousand m2
Buildings started Buildings completed
Business Investments
In the second quarter of 2006, the number of newly incorporated companies diminished 8.0%
to 771 and their registered capital decreased 56.7% to MOP 98 million. Among the newly incorporated companies, 32.4% were engaged in “Wholesale & retail”, 19.1% in “Business Services” and 17.4% in “Construction”. The majority of the registered capital was invested in
“Wholesale & retail”, with a proportion of 50.3%. In terms of capital sources, the largest amount came from Macao, followed by Mainland China, accounting for 39.8% and 35.3% of the total registered capital respectively. In the first half of 2006, there were 1,519 newly incorporated companies, down 2.1% over the same period of 2005, and their registered capital dropped 13.7% to MOP 290 million.
Number of dissolved companies in the second quarter fell 1.8% to 54. Within this, 13 were engaged in “Wholesale & retail” (24.1% of the total), 12 in “Real estate” (22.2% of the total) and 11 in “Business services” (20.4% of the total). There were 112 dissolved companies in the first half of the year, down 3.4%.
F. Public Accounts
In the second quarter of 2006, total government revenue went up 20.0% to MOP 6.71 billion, or when autonomous agencies were excluded, increased 20.3% to MOP 6.66 billion. This was fuelled by the increases of 14.1% in gaming tax revenue (amounting to MOP 5.16 billion) and
Values of building units transacted and mortgage loans
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M OP billion
Value of building units transacted Value of mortgage loans involving real estate transactions
173.2% in property income (amounting to MOP 0.68 billion) as a consequence of the surge in the premium for land lease.
Total government expenditure was MOP 3.09 billion, up 14.2%, or when autonomous agencies were excluded, increased 14.3% to MOP 3.03 billion, which was driven by the expansion of government investment by 46.7% to MOP 770 million. As total revenue was much greater than total expenditure, public finance showed a surplus of MOP 3.63 billion.
During the first six months of 2006, government revenue and expenditure totalled MOP 12.46 billion and MOP 5.78 billion respectively, up 18.2% and 6.4%; public finance recorded a surplus of MOP 6.66 billion.
G. Money and Finance
At the end of June of 2006, narrow money supply M1 (including currency in circulation and demand deposits) fell 3.2%, of which currency in circulation went up 8.6% but demand deposits decreased 6.5%. Meanwhile, broad money supply M2 (including M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities) increased 17.9%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the Pataca was 55.7% in M1 and 27.2% in M2, up 7.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, while the share of the Hong Kong dollar was 40.4% in M1 and 52.3% in M2.
On the counterpart of money supply, credit extended to the private sector rose 20.6%. As net credit to the public sectorb plunged 39.4%, overall domestic credit (credit extended to private sector
b Net credit to public sector = credit to public sector - deposits of public sector
Total revenue and expenditure (Autonomous Agencies excluded)
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 M OP billion
Total revenue Total expenditure Balance
+ credit to public sector - deposits of public sector) fell 10.3% in June 2006. Net foreign assets held by the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and other monetary institutions both registered a double-digit growth, up 33.6% and 11.5% respectively.
Resident deposits rose 17.9% to MOP 149.53 billion, of which deposits in MOP and in Hong Kong dollar grew significantly by 22.6% and 16.7%.
Since the Pataca is indirectly pegged to the US dollar under current Macao monetary regime, interest rates in Pataca are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US in order to maintain stability in the currency link. In the second quarter of 2006, the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate twice, by a total of 0.5%. However, considering the market situation, the Macao Association of Banks decided to maintain the reference rate for savings deposits at 2.5%.
Exchange rate movements of the Pataca essentially reflect those of the US dollar. Generally, the US dollar reacted differently against major currencies in the second quarter of 2006. In particular, its exchange rates against the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar rose 13.1%, 6.3% and 3.2% respectively, while against the Canadian dollar and the Singapore dollar fell 10.5% and 3.9% respectively. Consequently, the effective exchange rate index of the Pataca, a gauge of exchange rates of the Pataca against currencies of Macao’s major trade partners, dropped 0.11 percentage point to 95.03 over the same period of 2005.
Resident deposits and credit
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Q2 2005
Q3 Q4 Q1
2006
Q2 MOP billion (value at
the end of the period)
Resident deposits Credit to the private sector
H. Other Economic Indicators
Communications and Transport
In the second quarter of 2006, seaborne containerised cargo volume grew by 16.2% to 82 thousand tonnes. Containerised land cargo and air cargo volume also went up 12.6% to 23 thousand tonnes and 7.3% to 54 thousand tonnes respectively. In the first half of 2006, seaborne cargo took up the largest volume at 158 thousand tonnes (+14.5%), followed by air cargo at 107 thousand tonnes (+11.6%). However, land cargo declined 8.8% to 43 thousand tonnes.
As regards local traffic, the number of new registrations of vehicles in the second quarter decreased by 1.4% to 4,166, among which cars dropped by 4.0% but motorcycles increased slightly by 0.5%. During the first six months, there were 8,604 new registrations of vehicles, up 3.1%, of which cars shrank 1.8% while motorcycles rose 6.6%. At the end of June 2006, the total number of licensed vehicles was 157,204, among which cars accounted for 75,195, motorcycles 80,684 and bicycles 1,325.
At the end of June 2006, the number of Internet subscribers rose 16.7% to 97 thousand. The number of mobile phone users and fixed-line telephone users grew 24.5% to 593 thousand and 1.2% to 175,340 respectively. For fixed telephone lines, there was a telephone density of 34.9 lines per 100 residents.
Water and Energy Consumption
In the second quarter of 2006, with the exception that liquid fuel consumption (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil & diesel, and fuel oils) declined 6.6% to 0.15 billion litres, consumptions of electricity, gas fuel (LPG) and water recorded increases. Electricity consumption went up 14.5% to 0.65 billion kwh, gas fuel (LPG) rose 6.4% to 7.7 thousand tonnes and water consumption increased by 5.2% to 14 million cubic meters.
III. Conclusion
In the second quarter of 2006, Macao’s economy grew 16.3% in real terms, brought about by the outstanding performance of the gaming and tourism sector, unfolding of a number of on-going large-scale construction works and sharp rebound in exports of goods. In the first half of the year, Macao registered a real growth of 17.7%, indicating a persisting progress of the local economy.
Anticipating the third quarter of 2006, the world economy is expected to maintain in a favourable situation. The continuous growth of the economy in Mainland China, in particular, will greatly strengthen momentum for Macao’s economic development. In addition, the opening of new large-scale gaming facilities since September will draw in more visitors to Macao. In the wake of the 8.2% growth in visitor arrivals recorded in July 2006, visitor expenditure in Macao is expected to surge in a notable rate. As regards internal demand, provided that employment situation maintains favourable, resident income will increase and bring about a steady growth in private consumption. Investment is anticipated to keep growing. However, as some of the gaming and tourism facilities have been or will soon be completed, private investment in construction might reduce. Moreover, since the exports of goods in the third quarter of 2005 recorded a sharp boost, the growth in exports of goods in the third quarter of 2006 will slow down under a large comparison base. Considering the above factors, the local economy in the third quarter of 2006 is expected to grow, at a slower pace compared with the preceding two quarters.
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STATISTICAL TABLES
SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
.. Not applicable r Rectified data - Absolute value equals zero
… Not available
~ No figure provided
o Less than half of the unit employed p Provisional
TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)
Notes: Owing to rounding, the totals may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.
The figures presented are subject to regular revisions as and when required.
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
2005 2005 2005 2006 2006
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
USA
Gross Domestic Product 2.5r 3.9r 3.2r 3.1r 3.4r 3.1r 3.7r 3.5
Exports of goods 4.5 13.0 10.4 11.8 10.2 10.8 14.2 13.3
Imports of goods 8.5 17.0 13.7 13.1 13.8 13.5 14.3 12.9
Consumer Price Index 2.3 2.7 3.4 2.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.0
Unemployment rate 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.6
Japan
Gross Domestic Product 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 4.2 3.1 2.0
Exports of goods 4.7 12.1 7.3 4.3 7.4 13.4 5.3 14.7
Imports of goods 5.1 10.9 15.6 14.1 16.8 20.6 14.1 18.8
Consumer Price Index -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 0.7
Unemployment rate 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2
Euro area
Gross Domestic Product 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0r 2.4
Exports of goods -2.9 8.4 7.0 6.1 9.6 8.9 15.5 9.7
Imports of goods -0.5 8.5 12.0 10.7 14.2 14.2 22.1 14.6
Consumer Price Index 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5
Unemployment rate 8.7 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.9
Mainland China
Gross Domestic Product 9.1 10.1 9.9 10.1 9.8 9.9 10.3r 11.4
Exports of goods 34.6 35.4 28.4 30.9 29.1 21.7 26.6 24.1
Imports of goods 39.9 36.0 17.6 15.5 19.6 22.1 24.8 18.4
Consumer Price Index ª 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.3
Hong Kong
Gross Domestic Product 3.2 8.6 7.3 7.2 8.2 7.5 8.0r 5.2
Exports of goods 11.7 15.9 11.4 12.5 12.5 10.0 12.1 5.2
Imports of goods 11.5 16.9 10.3 10.1 11.5 11.3 13.8 7.8
Consumer Price Index -2.6 -0.4 1.0r 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.1
Unemployment rate 7.9 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.7r 5.0r 5.0 5.0
a Accumulated year-on-year comparison Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Japan Economic and Social Research Institute Japan Ministry of Finance
Japan Bureau of Statistics Eurostat
China National Bureau of Statistics
Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department
2003 2004 2005
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (COMPARISON WITH PRECEDING PERIOD)
Change from preceding period (seasonally adjusted) (%)
2005 2005 2005 2006 2006
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
USA
Gross Domestic Product 2.5r 3.9r 3.2r 3.3 4.2r 1.8r 5.6r 2.5
Exports of goods 4.5 13.0 10.4 4.8 0.8 2.8 5.3 3.3
Imports of goods 8.5 17.0 13.7 2.6 3.1 5.2 2.3 2.4
Consumer Price Index 2.3 2.7 3.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.2
Unemployment rate 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0r 4.7 4.7
Japan
Gross Domestic Product 1.8 2.3 2.6 1.4r 0.2r 1.1 0.7r 0.2
Exports of goods 4.7 11.7 7.5 3.0 4.2 6.8 -4.1 2.4
Imports of goods 5.2 10.3 16.2 7.8 6.6 6.4 1.1 1.0
Consumer Price Index -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2
Unemployment rate 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.1
Hong Kong
Gross Domestic Product 3.2 8.6 7.3 2.8 2.2 0.6 2.2r 0.0
Exports of goods 11.7 15.9 11.4 6.0 3.0 2.2 2.0 -1.4
Imports of goods 11.5 16.9 10.3 5.2 1.6 2.6 3.9 -1.5
Consumer Price Index -2.6 -0.4 1.0r 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3
Unemployment rate 7.9 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Japan Ministry of Finance, Japan Bureau of Statistics Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department
3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO
2005 2005 2005 2006r 2006p
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
At current prices:
GDP (MOP billion) 63.6 82.9 92.6 21.9 23.5 26.9 25.2 26.9 GDP per capita (MOP thousand) 142.8 181.4 194.5 .. .. .. .. ..
At constant (2002) prices:
GDP (MOP billion) 62.6 80.3 85.6 20.6 21.7 24.2 22.9 23.9 Real growth rates (%)
GDP 14.2 28.3 6.7 7.6 2.5 8.9 19.2 16.3
Private consumption expenditure 3.6 8.9 7.5 7.9 6.2 8.5 7.0 6.5
In the domestic market 5.7 8.7 7.5 8.2 7.9 7.4 8.3 7.6
Abroad -8.2 9.8 4.9 7.1 4.1 2.1 1.2 -2.2
Government final consumption expenditure 6.8 2.7 6.3 9.3 2.5 7.0 1.1 5.1
Gross fixed capital formation 45.7 37.2 56.9 64.2 68.7 53.8 67.2 54.8
Private sector 40.2 40.9 70.3 70.3 79.2 82.5 67.0 61.5
Government 64.4 26.2 13.5 25.2 20.1 13.2 79.8 -4.2
Exports of goods 9.4 8.3 -11.5 -33.6 -9.9 15.2 36.9 43.7
Exports of services 17.1 42.3 6.2 9.9 2.5 3.5 16.0 12.1
Imports of goods 13.3 24.0 8.7 -1.6 12.0 20.2 28.0 28.6
Imports of services 10.9 13.9 13.7 9.9 15.2 15.5 12.4 14.9
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
