MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN
This publication is jointly published by the Economic Services, the Statistics and Census Services, and the Monetary Authority of Macao. The Economic
Services prepares and provides the analysis on World Economy and External Trade and the data in tables I.1, I.2 and II.7 to II.9. The Monetary Authority of Macao prepares and provides the analysis on Money and Finance
and the data in tables VIII.1 to VIII.5. The Statistics and Census Services prepares and provides the remaining analysis and data.
For further information, please contact the Documentation and Information Centre of the Statistics and Census Services.
Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.
1
s tQuarter
2 0 0 3
English Version
Editor : DSEC July 2003, Macao
Typesetting and table design : DSEC Printing : DSEC
INDEX
THE WORLD ECONOMY ... 7
ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY I. OVERVIEW... 13
II. MAJOR SEGMENTS OF THE ECONOMY A. EXTERNAL TRADE... 14
B. GAMING AND TOURISM ... 16
C. CONSUMPTION AND PRICES ... 17
D. LABOUR MARKET... 17
E. INVESTMENTS ... 18
F. PUBLIC ACCOUNTS ... 19
G. MONEY AND FINANCE ... 19
H. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS... 20
III. CONCLUSION ... 21
STATISTICAL TABLES I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO 1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)... 25
2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (COMPARISON WITH PRECEDING PERIOD)... 26
3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO ... 26
4. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MACAO ... 27
II. EXTERNAL TRADE 1. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF EXTERNAL TRADE ... 28
2. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF IMPORTS ... 29
3. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF EXPORTS... 30
4. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS ... 31
5. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF RE-EXPORTS ... 32
6. STRUCTURE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS AND RE-EXPORTS BY MARKET AND TYPE OF GOODS ... 32
7. DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND GARMENTS TO THE USA ...33-34 8. DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND GARMENTS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION ... 35
9. EXPORT ORDERS ON HAND AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES... 36
10. EXPORT PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK OF THE NEXT 6 MONTHS OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES... 36
III. TOURISM
1. VISITOR ARRIVALS AND HOTEL GUESTS ... 37
2. VISITOR SPENDING PER CAPITA ... 38
IV. PRICES AND CONSUMPTION 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ... 39
2. RETAIL SALES... 39
V. POPULATION, LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT 1. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT... 40
2. MEDIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT INCOME OF THE EMPLOYED POPULATION ... 40
3. EMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY ... 41
4. JOB VACANCIES... 41
5. UNEMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY AND REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT ... 42
6. UNDEREMPLOYED POPULATION BY INDUSTRY AND REASONS FOR UNDEREMPLOYMENT... 43
7. NON-RESIDENT WORKERS ... 43
VI. CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE 1. PRIVATE SECTOR CONSTRUCTION ... 44
2. REAL ESTATE ... 45
3. PUBLIC WORKS ... 45
VII. PUBLIC ACCOUNTS 1. PUBLIC REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE ... 46
2. PUBLIC REVENUE ... 47
3. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ... 48
4. PUBLIC INVESTMENTS ... 48
VIII. MONEY AND FINANCE 1. MONETARY SURVEY ... 49
2. RESIDENT DEPOSITS ... 50
3. CREDIT TO DOMESTIC PRIVATE SECTOR – SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION... 51
4. EXCHANGE RATES OF THE MACAO PATACA AGAINST MAJOR CURRENCIES ... 51
5. INTEREST RATES OF THE MACAO PATACA... 51
IX. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1. NEWLY INCORPORATED COMPANIES AND DISSOLVED COMPANIES ... 52
2. TRANSPORT ... 53
3. COMMUNICATIONS ... 53
4. CONSUMPTION OF WATER, ELECTRICITY, FUELS AND CEMENT... 54
5. DEPARTURES AND OUTBOUND TRAVEL OF MACAO RESIDENTS... 54
THE WORLD ECONOMY
白頁
Página vazia Blank page
In the first quarter of 2003, global attention focused on the impact of the Iraqi war on the world’s economy. Although the tension was expected to be removed shortly, it did not release the strain on the US economy and the dollar remained weak. Europe and Japan buckled under a waning outlook. Besides, the rising tide of international oil prices was not lidded and stock prices slumped.
Terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear weapon development also darkened the prospect. The Asian region succumbed to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), spreading the plague to the global economy.
In the latest report in the World Economic Outlook published in April 2003 by the International Monetary Fund, global economic forecast for 2003 was ramped down by 0.5ppt to 3.2% on the back of sliding consumer confidence index and industrial production index. The erosion of the indices was triggered by a slow worldwide recovery coupled with regional political risks and jolting financial market. At the same time, the IMF scaled down its forecasts for the US, the EU and Japan from 2.6%, 2.3% and 1.1% to 2.2%, 1.1% and 0.8%. Projection of the year’s worldwide trade volume (goods and services) was also revised downwards from 6.1% to 4.3%.
Since the fourth quarter of 2002, recovery in the US faltered, weighing on the economy which under-performed and grew by only 1.9%a in the first quarter of 2003. Consumption expenditure, which constituted two-thirds of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slightly went up by 2.0%.
Investments in equipment and software relapsed from an increase of 6.2% to a drop of 6.3%.
Growth of expenditure on national defence also narrowed from 11.0% to a mere 0.9%. In addition, the government’s fiscal deficit piled up by 49.1% to USD143.9 billion. The economy was still gripped with unemployment as high as 5.8%.
In the first quarter of 2003, the Euro zone was grinding to a standstill with zero growth.
Overall unemployment stood at 8.6% (7.9% for the EU-15). The pace to an upturn in the Euro zone was beset by the rigidity of the economic structure. Internal demands remained on the wane. A strong Euro, which appreciated by over 3.9% against the US dollar in January – March 2003, restrained exports in a considerable extent. As the largest economy in the Euro zone, Germany saw a GDP contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2003. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered the second straight month of fall, at 45.9 from 47.8 in February.
Unemployment hovered to the highest ground in five years, at 11.2%. Consumption was further deterred.
Turning to the UK, the economy was still in wait for a convincing upturn as GDP growth of the fourth quarter of 2002 was halved to a bare 0.2% in the first quarter. Private consumption expenditure increased mildly by 0.4%. While the construction industry was singled out to rise by 2.1%, the service and retail sectors were showing visible signs of weariness. Manufacturing and
a Unless otherwise specified, all rates of change mentioned in this analysis are comparisons of the first quarter of 2003 with the preceding quarter.
production of electricity and natural gas were also encumbered with deterioration. Unemployment rate was contained at 5.1%. In France, GDP rebounded from -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2002 and grew 0.3% over the preceding quarter and 1.0% over a year earlier, supporting view for a gradual recovery. Private consumption exceeded expectation to rise by 0.6%. The entrenchment in corporate investments for three quarters running was curbed and an expansion of 0.4% was registered in the first quarter of 2003. However, the trade deficit was widened as exports edged down 0.7% and imports gained 0.7%.
In Asia, under the spell of the US slowdown and SARS outbreak, economic growth was generally losing speed. In Japan, growth was tuned down since the 1.3% growth in the second quarter of 2002 and muted to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2003. Private spending and corporate equipment investment, which grew 0.2% and 0.7% respectively, became the main pillars of strength in the Japanese economy. Government’s demands, on the other hand, were drawn down by 0.3%.
External trade of goods depleted upon the scenario of the Iraqi war and the appreciation of the Japanese Yen. Total export value dived from 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2002 to -3.8% in the first quarter of 2003, while total import value plunged from 5.4% to -0.9%. In addition, protracted deflation and unemployment still haunted the economy, with jobless rate hitting a record high of 5.4%.
Among Asia’s Four Dragons, Korea rallied in thin private spending and equipment investment.
The economy retreated from a year-on-year growth of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2002 to 3.7% in the first quarter of 2003. External trade of goods was leading the packs, with both imports (+19.0%) and exports (+19.9%) registering year-on-year gains. Yet, the number of unemployed swelled and jobless rate reached 3.1%. Despite the 16.9% year-on-year leap in merchandise exports, the growth in the economy of Singapore disappointed from 3.0% over a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2002 to only 1.6% in the first quarter of 2003. The Consumer Price Index inched up 0.7% over a year earlier. In March, unemployment rate stood at 4.5%. In Taiwan, GDP stoked up 3.2% year-on- year. However, imports and exports were hampered by sluggish international demands, falling by 19.9% and 11.4% respectively over a year earlier. In particular, merchandise exports in information technology, communications and machines were radically scaled down. Unemployment slightly improved to 5.1%.
As one of the Asian regions hardest-hit by SARS, Hong Kong suffered a deep concussion in private spending and tourism. In late March 2003, inbound tourists dropped by 10% over the same period of 2002. On a brighter note, the year of 2003 started with hopeful tidings spilled over from 2002, moderating the slowdown in the first quarter. Private consumption expenditure went down slightly by 0.3%. GDP in the first quarter was crippled to -0.3% (second quarter’s fall was tipped to be steeper). External trade of goods was lending its support to the economy, with total import and export values increasing by 17.8% and 17.6% respectively over a year earlier. On the contrary, the labour market persisted to the worst and unemployment rate hit 7.5% from 7.2% in the fourth
quarter of 2002.
Exuberant economic growth remained evident in Mainland China. In the first quarter of 2003, GDP achieved the fifth straight quarter of growth and increased by 9.9% over a year earlier. Internal consumption demands were heated and consumer retail fuelled by 9.2% over the same period of 2002. Industrial production and fixed capital investment were powered up by 17.2% and 27.8%
respectively over a year earlier. Compared with the same period of 2002, total export value picked up from 30.5% in the fourth quarter of 2002 to 33.5%, whereas total import value swelled from 33.1% to 52.4%. The trade balance in the first quarter stood at a deficit of USD1.0 billion.
白頁
Página vazia Blank page
ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY
白頁 Página vazia
Blank page
白頁
Página vazia Blank page
I. Overview
In the first quarter of 2003, Gross Domestic Product posted a real growth of 16.5% and a nominal growth of 17.7%. The gaming and tourism sector continued to perform well, revving up the economic growth engine with powerful service exports. Besides, merchandise exports also recorded a double-digit increase. The labour market and employment wages remained on stable ground. Private consumption took another climb. Deflation slowed, lifting pressure off the Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI). As the main gauge of overall price changes in the Territory, the GDP deflator rose 1.1%. In the investment front, private investment in equipment remained subdued, but the Government’s investments in construction and equipment continued to grow.
The following is the highlights of the local economic situation in the first quarter of 2003 as compared with the same quarter of 2002:
1. As the main export market of Macao, the US’s absorption of Macao’s imports expanded further by 17.7%. Exports to the European Union rebounded by 4.1%, while those to Mainland China slowed. Total export value of Macao recorded a nominal growth of 13.2% (real growth of 11.6%).
Among this, the major export commodity – clothing – rose 14.7%. On the other hand, growths in the imports of consumer goods, raw materials & semi-manufactures and fuels & lubricants were registered at 18.1%, 6.7% and 12.3% respectively. Imports of capital goods dropped 21.1%. Total import value went up 6.4% in nominal terms. The visible trade deficit in the first quarter of 2003 amounted to MOP460 million.
2. Visitors from Mainland China leapt by 53.2%, offsetting the declines in Hong Kong and Taiwan tourists. Total visitor arrivals rose 12.1%. Overnight guests increased 5.7% and hotel occupancy rate reached 65.1%. Per-capita spending of tourists (gambling spending excluded) also expanded by 2.7%. In addition, exports of gaming services soared by 33.2% in real terms, stimulating the total exports of services to achieve a real growth of 26.0% in the first quarter. At the same time, the gaming and tourism sector also acted as an impetus to the imports of services which grew by 17.0% in real terms.
3. The labour market remained stable with unemployment rate improved to 6.1%. Median monthly employment earnings continued to rise by 1.8%. Private consumption expenditure grew 6.4% in real terms. Falling local rent and housing expenses decelerated, giving a slight let-up in deflationary pressure with the Composite CPI eased to -1.6%. Government final consumption expenditure recorded a real growth of 8.3%.
4. The upsurge of public construction expenditure by 2.9 times in real terms was powered by the investment on large-scaled public works. The Government’s investment in equipment also
doubled. In wake of the vibrancy in gaming and tourism sector, private investment in construction posted a real growth of 27.2%. However, private investment in equipment remained faltered. Thus, total investments contracted by 1.1% in real terms in the first quarter of 2003. On the other hand, the number of newly incorporated companies increased 44.3% with their registered capital falling by 54.3% upon a relatively high base of comparison with a year earlier.
5. In the public accounts, direct tax brought about a rise of 34.9% in total revenue. In particular, gambling tax fuelled by 37.3%. Total expenditure expanded 27.1% with increasing current transfers and investments.
II. Major Segments of the Economy a
A. External Trade
Imports and Exports
The external trade value of Macao in the first quarter of 2003 amounted to MOP8.5 billion, up 9.6%. Both imports and exports registered increases. The total value of imports increased 6.4% to MOP4.5 billion while exports rose 13.2% to MOP4.0 billion. The exports-to-imports ratio stood at 89.8%, with trade deficit widening from MOP230 million in the fourth quarter of 2002 to MOP460 million in the first quarter of 2003.
The two major export markets continued to perform well. In the first quarter of 2003, value of exports to the US recorded the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2000 and rose 17.7%.
Besides, exports to the European Union, which fell 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2002, rebounded by 4.1%. Analysed by the type of goods exported, the value of textile and garment products, which made up 80.0 % of total exports, rose 12.5%. Value of other goods also surged up 16.3%.
Following the upward trend in recent quarters, increase in exports accelerated to a rate of 13.2% in the first quarter of 2003. The rise was brought about mainly by a substantial increase in the exports to the US, which was enough to offset the slowing demands from Mainland China. On the other hand, imports of goods also increased 6.4% in the first quarter.
Domestic Exports
Domestic exports in the first quarter of 2003 rose 12.1% to MOP3.1 billion, which accounted for 76.9% of the total merchandise exports. Garment and textile products, which accounted for
a Unless otherwise specified, all rates of change are in nominal terms and on the year-on-year basis, i.e. comparison of the first quarter of 2003 with the same quarter of 2002.
87.1% of the total domestic exports, also went up markedly by 14.3%. The most notable gain among them was the exports to the US which increased 16.1% in value, while those to the European Union also rose 2.9% after the 1.3% drop in the fourth quarter of 2002.
In terms of exports of restricted garment and textile products, the value soared by 18.6%.
Exports of these products to the US and the European Union posted rises of 22.8% and 7.7%
respectively.
On the other hand, exports of unrestricted garment and textile products in the first quarter of 2003 went down 2.6%. This was because exports of these products to the European Union and other markets contracted by 30.6% and 16.3% respectively, offsetting the 11.8% rise to the US.
In terms of non-textile products, exports of footwear rose 9.3%, making up 5.6% of the total domestic exports. Exports of machinery, apparatus & parts dropped 6.4%, making up 1.2% of the total domestic exports.
According to the survey results of selected industries in the first quarter of 2003, the orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers had in general extended to 4.2 months, up 6.1% year-on-year and 2.5% over the fourth quarter of 2002. At the same time, 30.3% of the interviewed manufacturers expected a minor rise in the local industrial exports in the following six months, while 4.8% of them expected a more substantial upsurge. There were 31.0% of the interviewed manufacturers with a bleak prediction.
Re-exports
Re-exports showed a burgeoning performance in the first quarter of 2003 and grew 17.3%, making up 23.1% of the total exports. Mainland China and Hong Kong continued to be the biggest re-export markets which made up 60.2% and 24.7% of the total re-exports respectively. Re-exports to Mainland China went up 4.5%, whereas those to Hong Kong posted a blistering growth of 33.2%.
In terms of the type of goods, raw materials & semi-manufactures, which made up 70.4% of the total re-exports, went up 11.3%. Among the rest of the re-exports, capital goods rose 56.6%;
fuels & lubricants posted a remarkable upsurge of 102.3%, but consumer goods contracted 9.2%.
Imports
Imports in the first quarter of 2003 went up 6.4%. Being the largest supplier of Macao, imports from Mainland China rose 10.1%, making up 38.4% of the total imports. Among other markets, growth was registered in Hong Kong (+3.4%), the European Union (+14.2%), Taiwan (+23.2%)
and Japan (+28.9%). Imports from the US, which shrank by 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2002, decreased by 15.7% in the first quarter of 2003.
In terms of the type of goods, raw materials & semi-manufactures were the main imports which increased 6.7%, making up 40.2% of the total imports. Consumer goods and fuels &
lubricants, which made up 39.5% and 7.7% of the total imports, went up 18.1% and 12.3%
respectively. On the other hand, increase in capital goods tapered off from 22.9% in the fourth quarter of 2002 to 21.1% in the first quarter.
B. Gaming and Tourism
In the first quarter of 2003, gaming industry and visitors’ other spending continued to grow.
Visitor arrivals remained on a double-digit increase and hotel occupancy rate was further brought up.
Gaming
Gross gambling receipts (with gratuities) increased by 29.6% in the first quarter of 2003.
Visitor Arrivals
Visitor arrivals continued the climb, rising 12.1% in the first quarter of 2003. Tourists from Mainland China, which occupied the largest share of total arrivals, surged up by 53.2%. This was enough to offset the drops of tourists from Taiwan (-9.2%) and Hong Kong (-8.4%).
Analysed by mode of transport, arrivals by land (47.8% of total arrivals) registered the highest increase, at 33.6%. On the contrary, arrivals by sea (45.9% of total arrivals) and air (6.3% of total arrivals) shrank 1.5% and 8.3% respectively.
In the first quarter, inbound visitors in package tours dropped 2.0% to a total of 507,595.
Hotels
In the first quarter of 2003, the increase in the number of hotel guests slowed to 5.7%. Yet, the overall hotel occupancy rate went up 3.1ppt to 65.1%. Among them, three-star hotels still topped the list, with occupancy rate hovering near 77.7%. The average length of stay of overnight guests was shortened by 0.1 night, to 1.2 nights.
Visitor Spending
In the first quarter of 2003, visitors’ spending in gaming services recorded a sharp growth of 33.2% in real terms. Visitors’ per-capita spending (gambling spending excluded) rose 2.7% to MOP1,393. As the major source of visitors, tourists from Mainland China spent the most, at MOP2,337 per capita. Per-capita spending of those from Taiwan (MOP1,162) also went up 9.8%, but that of Hong Kong tourists inched down 2.9% to MOP885. In shopping spending, all items, except jewellery & watches and foodstuffs, recorded rises of different degrees, bringing the overall per-capita shopping spending to rise by 7.9%. On the other hand, per-capita spending on accommodation (taking up about 35% of total non-shopping spending) inched up 1.1%; whereas food & beverages (about 41% of total non-shopping spending) edged down 2.2%. As a result, per- capita non-shopping spending contracted by 1.2%.
C. Consumption and Prices
Private Consumption
Private consumption expenditure rose 6.4% in real terms. Within this, expenditure in the domestic market increased by 6.5% in real terms, whereas household final consumption abroad went up slightly by 2.2% in real terms.
Total retail sales were further strengthened by 13.7% to MOP1.5 billion. Sales of department stores, motor vehicles and supermarkets stoked up 20.4%, 42.0% and 11.3% respectively. Adult clothing, on the other hand, contracted by 11.5%.
Prices
Prices of foodstuffs & beverages, which took up the largest share in consumption, continued to fall. This was coupled with the relapse in import prices to stoke concerns about the prevailing deflationary pressure. Nevertheless, falls in local rent & housing expenses and transport &
communications further decelerated, slowing the dive in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) to -1.6%.
D. Labour Market
In the first quarter of 2003, labour force shrank by 1.2%. Despite this, unemployment rate was down 0.2ppt to 6.1% upon a smaller unemployed population (-4.3%). Analysed by the previously engaged industry, most of the unemployed came from construction (20.8% of the total unemployed),
followed by manufacturing (18.0%), wholesale & retail (17.3%), and hotels & restaurants (16.9%).
On the other hand, employed population edged down by 1.0% as a result of decreases in manufacturing and hotels & restaurants. However, more people were employed in wholesale &
retail and transport, storage & communications. Underemployment rate inched down 0.6ppt to 3.0%.
Median employment earnings saw their second straight quarterly rise, with per-capita median monthly employment earnings regained by 1.8% to MOP4,850. In construction, which had been hard-hit by trimming wages, median monthly employment earnings rebounded by 7.9%. Financial services continued the climb by 20.8%; whereas manufacturing, public administration, defence &
compulsory social security and hotels & restaurants recorded rises of 5.1%, 4.7% and 2.2%
respectively. Wholesale & retail retreated by 3.5% and was accompanied by the 1.3% shrinkage in transport, storage & communications which had been a bright spot in 2002.
E. Investments
Investments in Construction and Equipment
In the first quarter of 2003, gross fixed capital formation dropped by 1.1% in real terms. Real growth in total construction investments leapt from 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2002 to 45.9%.
Total investment in equipment, on the other hand, contracted by 34.8% in real terms.
In the private sector, although gross floor area and the number of units in new buildings started recorded relatively sharp falls, gross floor area of buildings completed stoked up substantially by 11 times. This was coupled with a number of large-scaled construction works in the gaming and tourism sector to bring about a real growth of 27.2% in private construction investment. However, total private investment was sagged (-11.1% in real terms) as investment in equipment fell by 37.1% in real terms. On the contrary, the Government’s construction investment fuelled by 2.4 times in real terms on the back of an increase by 2.9 times in the expenditure on public work, triggered by the third Macao-Taipa bridge, immigration building at the Border Gate as well as various facilities for the East-Asian Games (e.g. The East-Asian Games Stadium of Macao, Tap- Seac Stadium). The Government’s investment in equipment also doubled.
Transactions on Real Estate
In the first quarter of 2003, a total of 3,652 building units (-28.1%) were transacted, involving an amount of MOP1.7 billion (-14.2%). Among them, residential and industrial units fell 31.4% and 50.0% respectively; whereas commercial and offices rose 17.8%.
Business Investment Business Investment
In the first quarter of 2003, there are altogether 352 newly incorporated companies, up 44.3%.
Among them, 121 were engaged in wholesale & retail (34.4% of the total), 85 in business services (24.1% of the total), 42 in construction (11.9% of the total) and 39 in real estate (11.1% of the total).
Due to a relatively high base of comparison from a year earlier when the number and registered capital of newly incorporated companies in cultural, recreational and gambling industries radically went up, total registered capital in the first quarter of 2003 dived by 54.3% to MOP60 million.
Number of dissolved companies shot up 136.8% to 45 companies, 15 of which had previously engaged in wholesale & retail, 9 in real estate and 7 in business services.
F. Public Accounts
As a main component (72.5%) of total revenue in the public accounts, gambling tax fuelled by 37.3% in the first quarter of 2003, delivering an increase of 34.9% in total revenue (MOP3.4 billion). Besides, property income and current transfers stoked up 270.1% and 101.9% respectively.
On the expenditure side, increases in current transfers (+42.9%) and investments (+283.2%) stimulated total expenditure to go up by 27.1% to MOP2.1 billion. Investments were in turn heated mainly by public works, which went up by a blistering 373.5%.
Due to the rapid growth of current revenue, the current account of the first quarter stood at the highest quarterly balance since the Handover, at MOP1.4 billion, up 60.6%.
G. Money and Finance
At the end of March 2003, the narrow money supply (M1), which includes currency in circulation plus demand deposits, increased 6.5%. Among this, currency in circulation rose 9.1%
and demand deposits increased 5.4%. At the same time, the broad money supply (M2), which includes M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities, also went up 7.7%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the pataca stood at 63.2% in M1, up 4.25ppt and 28.0% in M2, down 0.71ppt due to the larger share of Hong Kong dollar. Hong Kong dollar took up 35.9% and 52.0% in M1 and M2 respectively.
On the other side of the monetary survey, domestic credit remained on a downward trend.
Although credit to the domestic private sector showed sign of growth, credit to the public sector
plummeted by 34.7%. Domestic credit balance (domestic credit to the private sector plus domestic credit to the public sector, less public sector’s deposit) dropped 15.8% in March. Net foreign assets held by the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and the other monetary institutions both recorded double-digit rises of 13.4% and 14.2% respectively.
Resident deposits went up 7.7%, at MOP98.8 billion. Among this, Hong Kong dollar deposits registered the greatest increase of 9.4%; followed by foreign currency deposits (except Hong Kong dollar deposits), which also increased by 7.4%
Since the pataca is indirectly pegged to the US dollar under the present currency system, interest rates in pataca are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US in order to maintain stability in the currency link. Since the rate cut in November 2002 by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the target Fed funds rate has remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2003.
The Macao Association of Banks also kept the reference rate for savings deposits at 0.0625%.
The exchange rate of the pataca largely moved in line with the US dollar exchange rate.
Generally, the pataca depreciated against most of the Asian and European currencies on the back of the weak US dollar. In particular, its exchange rates against the Japanese Yen and the Euro fell 11.3% and 22.3% respectively.
H. Other Economic Indicators
Communications and Transport
In the first quarter of 2003, seaborne containerised cargo reached the amount of 83 thousand tonnes, up 22.1%. Containerised land cargo and air cargo also went up to 21 thousand tonnes (+64.5%) and 28 thousand tonnes (+25.1%) respectively.
The number of mobile telephone lines increased 35.2% to 293 thousand. Internet subscribers also rose 18.0% to 43 thousand.
Water and Energy Consumption
In the first quarter of 2003, the consumption volume of water went up 4.9% to 12 million m3. The consumption of electricity also inched up 0.1% to 330 million kwh. Consumption volumes of liquid fuel and gas fuel were recorded at 120 million litre and 8.3 thousand tonnes, up 3.5% and 10.1% respectively.
III. Conclusion
In the first quarter of 2003, the economy of Macao grew by 16.5% in real terms, exceeding the 14.7% growth during the fourth quarter of 2002. The growth momentum came mainly from the gaming and tourism sector as well as merchandise exports. In particular, visitors’ spending on gaming services registered a satisfactory real growth of 33.2%. Against the backdrop of an influx of visitors (+12.1%), their spending was rising on a firm footing. Besides, merchandise exports fuelled by 13.2%. In conclusion, the economy of Macao in the first quarter has escaped the plague of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) gripping the neighbouring regions in mid-March.
However, the number of visitor arrivals to Macao significantly dropped in the second quarter as the outbreak of SARS worsened. The tourism industry saw an unusual threat and the export of gaming services was negatively affected. The economic growth was tipped to lose some velocity in the second quarter of 2003.
白頁
Página vazia Blank page
STATISTICAL TABLES
SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
.. Not applicable
r Rectified data
- Absolute value equals zero
… Not available
o Less than half of the unit employed
p Provisional
TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)
Notes: Due to rounding, the totals may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.
The figures presented are subject to regular revisions as and when required.
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
2002 2002 2002 2002 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
USA
Gross Domestic Product 3.8 0.3 2.4 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.1
Exports of goods 12.4 -6.5 -4.9 -15.1 -6.5 1.3 2.0 4.3
Imports of goods 18.9 -6.2 2.0 -12.0 1.2 7.8 12.6 14.2
Consumer Price Index 3.4 2.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.9
Unemployment rate 4.0 4.8 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8
Japan
Gross Domestic Product 2.4 -0.5 0.3 -1.6 -0.6 1.7 2.4 2.6
Exports of goods 8.6 -5.1 6.4 -3.1 5.7 7.4 16.2 5.1
Imports of goods 16.1 3.6 -0.6 -8.4 -4.4 2.1 9.4 8.2
Consumer Price Index -0.7 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2
Unemployment rate 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4
Euro area
Gross Domestic Product 3.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.8r 1.0r 1.2r 0.8
Exports of goods 20.8 5.0 1.0 -1.9 1.9 2.8 1.1 -2.1
Imports of goods 27.8 -2.0 -4.0 -8.8 -4.9 -3.5 0.8 3.2
Consumer Price Index 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3
Unemployment rate 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.6
Mainland China
Gross Domestic Product ª 8.0 7.3 8.0 7.6 7.8r 7.9 8.0 9.9
Exports of goods 27.8 6.8 22.3 9.9 17.8 28.8 30.5 33.5
Imports of goods 35.8 8.2 21.2 5.1 15.0 29.3 33.1 52.4
Consumer Price Index ª 0.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.5
Hong Kong
Gross Domestic Product 10.2 0.6 2.3 -0.5 0.8 3.3 5.1r 4.5
Exports of goods 16.6 -5.8 5.4 -6.2 2.7 8.5 15.5 17.6
Imports of goods 19.0 -5.4 3.3 -9.1 0.5 6.4 14.9 17.8
Consumer Price Index -3.8 -1.6 -3.0 -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.0
Unemployment rate 4.9 5.1 7.3 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5
a Accumulated year-on-year comparison Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Japan Economic and Social Research Institute Japan Ministry of Finance
Japan Bureau of Statistics Eurostat
China National Bureau of Statistics
Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department
2000 2001 2002
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (COMPARISON WITH PRECEDING PERIOD)
Change from preceding period (seasonally adjusted) (%)
2002 2002 2002 2002 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
USA
Gross Domestic Product 3.8 0.3 2.4 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.9
Exports of goods 12.4 -6.5 -4.9 -1.4 4.7 2.0 -2.6 0.9
Imports of goods 18.9 -6.2 2.0 1.8 8.7 1.4 1.6 1.9
Consumer Price Index 3.4 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.0
Unemployment rate 4.0 4.8 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8
Japan
Gross Domestic Product 2.4 -0.5 0.3 0.0r 1.3r 0.6r 0.4r 0.1
Exports of goods 8.6 -5.1 6.4 7.2 4.5 -3.5 7.7 -3.8
Imports of goods 16.1 3.6 -0.6 0.8 2.4 0.5 5.4 -0.9
Consumer Price Index 0.7 -0.4 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Unemployment rate 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4
Hong Kong
Gross Domestic Product 10.2 0.6 2.3 0.2 0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
Exports of goods 16.6 -5.8 5.4 5.7 3.5 4.9 3.9r 3.1
Imports of goods 19.0 -5.4 3.3 3.1 5.4 6.1 3.0r 3.7
Consumer Price Index -3.8 -1.6 -3.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Unemployment rate 4.9 5.1 7.3 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Japan Ministry of Finance, Japan Bureau of Statistics Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department
3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO
2002 2002 2002 2002 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
At current prices:
GDP (MOP billion) 49.7 49.9 54.1 12.4 13.0 13.4 15.3 14.6
GDP per capita (MOP thousand) 115.5 114.9 123.4 .. .. .. .. ..
At constant (1996) prices:
GDP (MOP billion) 53.4 54.6 59.8 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.8 15.8
Real growth rates (%)
GDP 4.6 2.2 9.5 7.6 8.0 7.3 14.7 16.5
Private consumption expenditure 0.9 2.9 4.8 4.1 5.2 4.4 5.4 6.4
Government final consumption expenditure -9.8 -0.1 2.4 3.7 -4.8 7.1 4.4 8.3
Gross fixed capital formation -28.4 -9.0 4.1 -3.6 7.3 4.7 7.3 -1.1
Exports of goods 14.1 -5.2 6.4 1.7 5.1 8.7 8.7 11.6
Exports of services 22.7 16.6 17.7 15.8 17.5 11.0 26.2 26.0
Imports of goods 6.2 8.5 10.4 7.4 11.8 10.0 11.8 11.5
Imports of services 14.3 7.2 10.6 8.6 7.8 9.1 16.4 17.0
2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002
I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO
4. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MACAO
2003
2003 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 Q1
Q1 to Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 year-on-year
% change A. External trade (MOP million)
Total exports 20 380 18 473 18 925 4 035 3 563 4 918 5 478 4 966 4 035 13.2
Textiles and garments 16 804 15 504 15 884 3 228 2 868 4 107 4 748 4 161 3 228 12.5
Other products 3 576 2 969 3 041 807 695 811 731 805 807 16.1
Total imports 18 098 19 170 20 323 4 494 4 222 5 505 5 402 5 194 4 494 6.4
Trade balance 2 283 -697 -1 398 -459 -659 -587 76 -228 -459 30.4
B. Tourism
No. of visitor arrivals (thousands) 9 162.2 10 279.0 11 530.8 2 995.6 2 673.0 2 803.9 3 013.3 3 040.7 2 995.6 12.1 Average length of stay of visitors (days) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.5a
Visitor spending per capita (MOP) 1 367 1 389 1 454 1 393 1 357 1 370 1 405 1 567 1 393 2.7
Hotel occupancy rate (%) 57.6 60.7 67.1 65.1 62.0 66.4 69.7 70.4 65.1 3.0b
C. Construction and real estate
Expenditure on public works (MOP million) 484.9 533.8 950.7 165.5 35.0 62.6 141.2 712.0 165.5 373.5 Private sector construction
Buildings started - gross floor area 203 158 157 3 12 4 82 60 3 -77.6
(thousand m²)
Buildings completed - gross floor area 370 404 103 86 7 45 41 10 86 1 113.9
(thousand m²)
No. of units sold 10 211 27 016 20 798 3 652p 5 076 6 167 4 396 5 159 3 652p -28.1p
D. Transport
Seaborne containerised cargo (tonnes) 344 957 330 632 368 680 82 932 67 921 93 187 98 306 109 266 82 932 22.1 Containerised land cargo (tonnes) 94 685 67 203 108 140 21 131 12 847 22 497 34 013 38 783 21 131 64.5
Air cargo (tonnes) 68 028 76 070 111 257 27 658 22 108 27 430 23 693 38 026 27 658 25.1
E. Prices and consumption
Inflation rate (%) -1.6 -2.0 -2.6 -1.6 -2.8 -3.2 -2.8 -1.8 -1.6 ..
Consumer Price Index 99.5 97.5 94.9 94.1 95.6 94.9 94.8 94.5 94.1 -1.6
Retail sales turnover (MOP million) 4 594 4 833 5 223 1 462 1 285 1 210 1 294 1 434 1 462 13.7
F. Employment
Unemployment rate (%) 6.8 6.4 6.3 .. 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 -0.2b
Median monthly employment earnings 4.8 4.7 4.7 .. 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 1.8
(MOP thousand)
Non-resident workers in Macao (period-end) 27 221 25 925 23 460 .. 24 493 23 738 23 242 23 460 22 979 -6.2 G. Public accounts (MOP million)
Total revenue 15 338.5c 15 641.6c 11 084.3d 3 349.0d 2 482.8d 2 618.7d 2 770.8d 3 212.0d 3 349.0d 34.9 Revenue from gambling tax 5 646.5 6 292.9 7 765.8 2 426.8 1 767.7 1 915.2 1 925.0 2 158.0 2 426.8 37.3 Total expenditure 15 024.3c 15 220.8c 9 344.3d 2 098.2d 1 650.2d 1 560.7d 2 205.7d 3 927.7d 2 098.2d 27.1 H. Money and finance
(period-end values, MOP million)
Narrow money supply (M1) e 4 945.4 5 916.7 6 350.8r 6 556.0 6 153.1 6 497.4 6 090.0 6 350.8r 6 556.0 6.5 Broad money supply (M2) 84 917.9 91 550.0 98 959.3r 100 883.6 93 631.7 95 695.7 95 658.6 98 959.3r 100 883.6 7.7 Credit to domestic private sector 39 035.8 36 290.9 34 330.3r 33 976.3 35 026.2 36 105.5 35 085.7 34 330.3r 33 976.3 -3.0 Net foreign assets 74 975.5 85 222.4 97 960.4r 100 935.3 88 653.9 91 302.9 93 011.3 97 960.4r 100 935.3 13.9 I. Others
No. of newly incorporated companies 716 883 1 187 352 244 321 316 306 352 44.3
No. of dissolved companies 111 90 99 45 19 23 36 21 45 136.8
Consumption of electricity (million kwh) 1 572.8 1 602.0 1 687.9 328.0 327.7 469.0 513.6 377.6 328.0 0.1 Note: The external trade statistics of 2003 are subject to revisions later on.
a Days b Percentage points
c The specific accounts are included.
d The specific accounts are not included.
e In January 2001, the definition of M1 was revised by the Monetary Authority of Macao to include only the currency in circulation and demand deposits, and the savings deposits become part of the quasi monetary liabilities.
2000 2001 2002
II. EXTERNAL TRADE
1. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF EXTERNAL TRADE
2003 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003
Q1 to Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
A. Total imports MOP million 18 098 19 170 20 323 4 494 4 222 5 505 5 402 5 194 4 494
y-on-y % change 11.0 5.9 6.0 6.4 -1.9 3.8 11.9 9.7 6.4
B. Total exports MOP million 20 380 18 473 18 925 4 035 3 563 4 918 5 478 4 966 4 035
y-on-y % change 15.9 -9.4 2.4 13.2 -2.1 0.8 3.2 6.8 13.2
1. Domestic exports MOP million 17 081 15 128 14 774 3 104 2 770 3 665 4 388 3 952 3 104
y-on-y % change 13.5 -11.4 -2.3 12.1 -4.7 -8.1 -2.4 5.7 12.1
2. Re-exports MOP million 3 300 3 345 4 152 931 794 1 253 1 090 1 015 931
y-on-y % change 30.1 1.4 24.1 17.3 8.4 40.6 34.1 11.6 17.3
C. Trade balance a MOP million 2 283 -697 -1 398 -459 -659 -587 76 -228 -459
y-on-y % change 78.4 -130.5 -100.5 30.4 0.8 -37.5 -84.1 -169.5 30.4
D. Exports/Imports ratio b 112.6 96.4 93.1 89.8 84.4 89.3 101.4 95.6 89.8
E. External trade index (1996=100) 1. Imports
Value index index 112.9 120.3 127.2 112.8 106.0 136.6 135.6 130.4 112.8
y-on-y % change 14.4 6.6 5.7 6.4 -1.9 2.6 11.8 9.8 6.4
Unit value index index 100.7 97.3 94.4 94.5 96.1 92.4 93.7 95.3 94.5
y-on-y % change 4.6 -3.4 -3.0 -1.7 -3.6 -6.2 -3.1 0.8 -1.7
Quantum index index 112.1 123.6 134.8 119.4 110.3 147.9 144.8 136.9 119.4
y-on-y % change 9.4 10.3 9.1 8.3 1.8 9.4 15.5 8.8 8.3
2. Exports
Value index index 128.2 116.2 119.0 101.5 89.6 123.7 137.8 124.9 101.5
y-on-y % change 15.9 -9.4 2.4 13.2 -2.2 0.8 3.3 6.8 13.2
Unit value index index 101.4 97.3 94.1 99.9 98.0 92.3 90.9 95.2 99.9
y-on-y % change 2.1 -4.0 -3.3 1.9 -3.4 -3.7 -4.7 -1.3 1.9
Quantum index index 126.4 119.4 126.5 101.6 91.5 134.0 151.6 131.2 101.6
y-on-y % change 13.5 -5.5 5.9 11.0 1.3 4.6 8.4 8.3 11.0
3. Terms of trade index c index 100.7 100.0 99.7 105.7 102.0 99.9 97.0 99.9 105.7
y-on-y % change -2.3 -0.7 -0.3 3.6 0.3 2.7 -1.7 -2.2 3.6
Note: The external trade statistics of 2003 are subject to revisions later on.
a Trade balance = Total exports - Total imports
b Exports / Imports ratio = Total exports / Total imports × 100
c Terms of trade index = Unit value index of exports / Unit value index of imports × 100 2000 2001 2002
II. EXTERNAL TRADE
2. PRINCIPAL STATISTICS OF IMPORTS
2003 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 Structure
Q1 to Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (%)
Total imports MOP million 18 098 19 170 20 323 4 494 4 222 5 505 5 402 5 194 4 494 100.0
y-on-y % change 11.0 5.9 6.0 6.4 -1.9 3.8 11.9 9.7 6.4
1. Origin
Mainland China MOP million 7 429 8 165 8 477 1 727 1 569 2 368 2 349 2 192 1 727 38.4
y-on-y % change 27.9 9.9 3.8 10.1 -3.5 5.4 4.5 7.2 10.1
Hong Kong MOP million 2 758 2 660 2 956 638 617 834 752 752 638 14.2
y-on-y % change -6.3 -3.6 11.1 3.4 15.1 14.8 15.7 0.7 3.4
Taiwan MOP million 1 720 1 278 1 358 263 213 397 385 362 263 5.8
y-on-y % change 10.9 -25.7 6.2 23.2 -23.7 1.8 30.5 15.5 23.2
Japan MOP million 1 142 1 041 1 371 378 293 342 336 399 378 8.4
y-on-y % change 5.3 -8.8 31.6 28.9 9.9 28.4 33.0 56.5 28.9
European Union MOP million 1 738 2 412 2 394 654 572 578 613 631 654 14.5
y-on-y % change -17.3 38.8 -0.7 14.2 0.7 -18.0 4.1 14.8 14.2
USA MOP million 820 797 842 205 243 221 215 164 205 4.6
y-on-y % change -1.3 -2.8 5.7 -15.7 4.4 2.2 25.0 -7.0 -15.7
2. Type of goods
Consumer goods MOP million 5 318 6 296 7 268 1 774 1 503 1 840 1 970 1 955 1 774 39.5
y-on-y % change 22.5 18.4 15.4 18.1 16.8 14.6 20.0 10.9 18.1
Foodstuffs, beverages MOP million 1 745 2 245 2 320 624 549 541 621 609 624 13.9
and tobacco y-on-y % change 18.7 28.7 3.3 13.6 1.9 3.3 2.6 5.5 13.6
Clothing and footwear MOP million 2 018 2 368 2 703 501 477 763 755 709 501 11.2
y-on-y % change 32.4 17.3 14.2 5.1 34.9 9.7 18.6 3.7 5.1
Motor vehicles MOP million 482 555 627 211 127 159 163 178 211 4.7
y-on-y % change 25.9 15.1 13.1 65.9 -9.1 24.0 21.6 16.9 65.9
Raw materials and MOP million 9 430 8 891 8 790 1 809 1 695 2 544 2 327 2 224 1 809 40.2
semi-manufactures y-on-y % change 7.4 -5.7 -1.1 6.7 -11.4 -1.8 1.1 6.6 6.7
Textile materials MOP million 7 324 6 845 6 559 1 234 1 238 1 972 1 731 1 618 1 234 27.5
y-on-y % change 13.5 -6.5 -4.2 -0.3 -10.7 -5.2 -4.7 3.6 -0.3
Construction materials MOP million 179 180 217 83 44 47 51 75 83 1.9
y-on-y % change -25.6 0.8 20.4 89.9 -3.7 -12.4 44.7 65.2 89.9
Fuels and lubricants MOP million 1 371 1 500 1 464 347 309 346 425 385 347 7.7
y-on-y % change 35.5 9.4 -2.4 12.3 -11.8 -11.5 9.9 3.1 12.3
Capital goods MOP million 1 978 2 483 2 801 564 716 774 680 631 564 12.6
y-on-y % change -8.7 25.5 12.8 -21.1 -5.2 8.3 36.1 22.9 -21.1
Note: The external trade statistics of 2003 are subject to revisions later on.
2000 2001 2002
