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2001-based Manpower Projection for Professional Services up to 2007

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for Professional Services up to 2007

Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region June 2003

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2001-based Manpower Projection for Professional Services up to 2007

Economic Analysis Division, Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau in collaboration with

Education and Manpower Bureau and Census and Statistics Department

Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region June 2003

(3)

Introduction

This report supplements the main report on “Manpower Projection to 2007”, by providing a more focused and in-depth analysis of manpower requirement in the professional services sector(1). The format adopted herein is broadly similar to that of the main report, including an overview of development trends, quantitative projection of manpower requirement, and a summary of survey feedback from the employers and employees concerned.

Development trends

2. In line with Hong Kong’s strong orientation towards high quality and specialised services, the value-added of the professional services sector grew markedly, by an average of 12.0% per annum in money terms from $8.0 billion in 1986 to $43.6 billion in 2001. In consequence, the share of professional services in GDP went up from 2.7% to 3.6% over the same period (Annex 1).

3. Within this broad sector, engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services had the largest share in its total value-added, at 24.7%. This was followed by architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities (with a share of 17.6%); accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services (17.5%); information technology related services (16.4%); legal services (15.1%); and advertising and related services (8.7%).

Measured in terms of growth rate, information technology related services were ahead of the others, with an average annual growth rate of 21.5% over 1986-2001.

Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services were in the second place, with a corresponding growth rate of 14.9%. The other sub-sectors followed with respective growth rates ranging from 7.1% to 12.2%.

(1) Professional services include legal services; accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services;

information technology related services; advertising and related services; architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities;

and engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services.

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4. As another indicator of growing significance of the professional services sector in the economy, there was an appreciable rise in the sectoral employment over the past decade, by an average of 5.9% per annum from 71 300 persons in 1991 to 126 200 persons in 2001. This led to an increase in its share in the total employed population from 2.7% to 4.2% over the same period.

Analysed by sub-sector, information technology related services again registered the fastest employment growth, by an average of 16.8% per annum over 1991-2001. More moderate employment growth was observed in the other sub-sectors, ranging from 2.3% to 5.4% (Annex 2).

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 0

10 20 30 40

50 Value-added ($Bn)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Employment ('000) 140

Chart 1: Value-added and employment in professional services

Employment Value-added

5. In 2001, 22.0% of employment in the professional services sector were taken up by engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services. This was followed by information technology related services (with a share of 21.5%);

advertising and related services (15.4%); architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities (15.2%);

accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services (13.6%); and legal services (12.3%).

6. In line with these developments, the membership of the relevant professional associations kept on expanding over the years. Comparing 2002 with 1992, the number of professional accountants rose by an annual average of 12.0%, solicitors by 7.5%, engineers by 7.2%, registered architects by 7.1%, and practising barristers by 5.1% (Annex 3).

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Value added Employment construction and real estate activities)

and business management and consultancy services

Information technology related services

(24.7%) (22.0%)

(16.4%)

(21.5%)

(17.6%) (15.2%)

(17.5%) (13.6%)

(15.1%) (12.3%)

(8.7%)

(15.4%)

Total value-added of the professional services sector in 2001 : $43.6 billion Total employment in the professional services sector in 2001 : 126 200

Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

Legal services

Architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

Advertising and related services

Projected manpower requirement in the professional services sector up to 2007

7. Projection of manpower requirement has been done for some selected economic sectors and domains up to 2007, based on certain statistical models and feedback from an earlier consultation exercise(2). For the professional services sector, manpower requirement is projected to increase by an average of 3.7% per annum from 126 200 in 2001 to 156 500 in 2007, faster than the average annual growth of 1.0% per annum projected for the overall manpower requirement in the economy(3) (Annex 4).

(2) In the projection exercise, statistical models for 40 major economic sectors have been calibrated for projecting overall manpower requirement in Hong Kong, based on their respective employment data series from 1986 to 2001. The preliminary projection results thereby generated are then examined carefully and refined, taking into account the views of industry leaders, trade association representatives, academic experts, and relevant Government bureaux and departments as obtained from a consultation exercise conducted during June - September 2002.

For details, see “2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Economic Sector”, Census and Statistics Department.

(3) This includes all employed Hong Kong residents regardless of their place of work, and excludes foreign domestic helpers.

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8. Analysed by sub-sector, manpower requirement in information technology related services is projected to increase by an average of 5.6% per annum between 2001 and 2007 (Annex 5). Manpower requirements in legal services and in accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services are projected for relatively slower, yet still notable, growth averaging at 4.8% and 4.6% respectively per annum. Manpower requirement in architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities; advertising and related services; and engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services are projected for yet slower growth, averaging at 2.5%, 2.4% and 2.0% respectively per annum.

9. Analysed by occupation category within the professional services sector, the following are observed :

¾ Manpower requirement for managers and administrators, professionals and associate professionals is expected to maintain strong growth, at 5-6% per annum over 2001-07. Their corresponding shares in the sectoral employment are thus projected to increase to 12.7%, 35.0% and 39.6% in 2007, from 11.2%, 31.0% and 36.5% in 2001 (Annex 6). This is mainly attributable to the strong demand for IT professionals for supporting out-sourced IT development jobs in many other sectors. Also relevant is the growing demand for skilled personnel to support business activities in the mainland of China (the Mainland).

¾ By contrast, manpower requirement for clerks is projected to decrease by an average of 5.5% per annum over 2001-07, with its share in the sectoral employment falling from 18.3% to 10.5% in 2007. The trend of office automation along with increased application of advanced technology is the major dampening factor.

10. Analysed by educational attainment within the professional services sector, the following are noteworthy :

¾ Along with skill upgrading for a knowledge-based economy, manpower requirement for persons at the postgraduate, first degree and sub-degree levels is projected to rise by an average of 9.1%, 8.1%

and 8.3% per annum respectively between 2001 and 2007. Their corresponding shares in the sectoral employment are expected to rise to 11.7%, 48.2% and 11.5% in 2007, from 8.6%, 37.4% and 8.9% in 2001 (Annex 7).

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decline by an average of 7.2% and 3.3% per annum respectively between 2001 and 2007, with their corresponding shares in the sectoral employment declining from 24.8% and 6.9% in 2001 to 12.7% and 4.5% in 2007.

11. Statistical models apart, a single-equation econometric model has also been developed for projecting manpower requirement for the professional services sector as a whole (Annex 8). The projection gives a growth rate of 3.4% per annum over 2001-07, as against that of 3.7% derived from the statistical model-based projection. Given the fact that the professional services sector renders support to a wide spectrum of economic activities, manpower requirement in professional services is seen to be mostly related to the overall level of economic activity as represented by GDP.

Feedback from the establishment survey on business environment, manpower requirement and training needs in respect of professional services

12. In the third quarter of 2002, the Census and Statistics Department conducted an establishment survey(4) on business aspirations and training needs, upon Hong Kong’s economic restructuring and China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The feedback from the professional services sector gives the following observations :

¾ On business prospects, 27% of the establishments surveyed were optimistic about the business outlook for the period up to 2007, with 1% holding a “very optimistic” view. On the other hand, 23% of the establishments were pessimistic about the medium-term outlook, with 5% being “very pessimistic” (Annex 9).

(4) The survey successfully enumerated some 4 200 establishments to collect their views on manpower requirements and training needs in Hong Kong over the next five years, amidst further structural change in the economy, as induced by rapid advances in information technology and e-commerce, globalisation and liberalisation of trade and investment, China’s accession to WTO, and closer economic integration between Hong Kong and the Mainland. The response rate attained was 90%.

It is estimated from the survey that about 17 900 establishments were engaged in professional services, employing some 129 100 persons, as at mid-2002.

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¾ On business turnover, 25% of the establishments surveyed predicted a further increase over the next five years, with 3% anticipating a

“significant increase”. By contrast, 26% of the establishments expected a contraction in business turnover, with 12% projecting a

“significant decrease” (Annex 10).

¾ On investment projects in the Mainland, only 8% of the establishments surveyed had undertaken such projects (Annex 11).

¾ A considerable proportion of the establishments surveyed, at 40%, expected that China’s accession to WTO would generate new business opportunities, while 50% did not think so (Annex 12).

¾ On business environment in Hong Kong, China’s accession to WTO was considered to yield mixed effects, bringing both opportunities and challenges to Hong Kong in the coming years. The more distinct concerns expressed by the establishments surveyed were

“need to better understand the market and changes in investment environment in the Mainland”, “face keener competition from enterprises in the Mainland” and “more companies to relocate business operations to the Mainland” (Annex 13).

¾ In order to cope with changes in business environment, over two-fifths of the establishments indicated intention to adopt the following measures (Annex 14) :

• increase the use of IT within the company (54%);

• upgrade the skills of existing staff (49%);

• diversify the business of the company (44%); and

• upgrade the capability of the workforce on technology and language skills (43%).

13. As to future manpower requirement and training needs, the professional services establishments surveyed held the following views :

¾ Future manpower requirement was expected to shift more towards the higher end of educational attainment, with increases in shares at the postgraduate and first degree levels between 2002 and 2007, yet with

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¾ Analysed by occupation category, increases in shares between 2002 and 2007 were predicted for professionals and associate professionals.

Yet a decrease was predicted for clerks (Annex 16).

¾ On training plans and budget, the professional services establishments surveyed had the following feedback :

• Amongst those establishments with employees, 18% had training plans and 14% training budget for their staff (Annex 17).

• Analysed by occupation category, managers and administrators were preferred to have their management skills enhanced. As to professionals, associate professionals, and service workers and shop sales workers, the focus of training should preferably be geared to IT skills. Craft and related workers were preferred to have their job-specific skills enhanced. For the remaining occupation categories, it was language skills that needed to be enhanced (Annex 18).

• As regards mode of training, extra-mural courses were most preferred, followed by self-learning and in-house training (Annex 19).

Feedback from the household survey on employment concerns and training needs in respect of persons engaged in the professional services sector

14. In the third quarter of 2002, the Census and Statistics Department had separately conducted a thematic household survey on employment concerns and training needs of the local workforce(5). From persons engaged in professional services, the following feedback is relevant :

(5) The survey successfully enumerated some 8 000 households. Within each successfully enumerated household, all economically active persons were interviewed to collect information on their aspirations as well as their employment concerns and training needs over the medium term in face of structural change in the economy. The response rate of the survey was 72%.

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¾ On perceived prospects of the sector, over half (51%) of the persons engaged were optimistic about the prospect for the next five years, anticipating either a moderate or fast growth. On the other hand, 31% predicted only slow growth, 11% zero growth, and 7% even a contraction in business (Annex 20).

¾ On challenges/problems faced, “corporate downsizing” was most commonly cited, being reported by 40% of the persons engaged.

This was followed by “keen competition amongst companies within the sector” (39%) and “cost reduction (including salary/wage cuts)”

(28%) (Annex 21).

¾ When asked about whether they had been affected by the prevalence of corporate restructuring, 25% of the persons engaged replied in the affirmative. Amongst those affected, 49% indicated that they had experienced “increasing work pressure”, 41% “salary/wage cuts”, and 36% “longer working hours” (Annex 22).

¾ On possession of job-specific skills, almost all (99%) of the persons engaged claimed to have sufficient/very sufficient job-specific skills to cope with the current job requirements (Annex 23).

¾ On training needs, 17% of the persons engaged had attended job-related training/retraining courses arranged by their employers in the past 12 months, while 11% had attended job-related training/retraining courses on their own initiative (Annex 24).

¾ 28% of the persons engaged had plans to attend job-related training/retraining courses in the coming 12 months.

---

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Value-added in the professional services sector

Value-added at current market prices

Average annual rate of change in value terms 1986 1996 2001 1986-96 1996-2001 1986-2001

($Bn) ($Bn) ($Bn) (%) (%) (%)

Professional services as a whole 8.0 40.0 43.6 17.4 1.7 12.0

(2.7) (3.4) (3.6) Within which :

(a) Legal services 2.4 8.0 6.6 13.0 -3.8 7.1

(b) Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

1.4 6.3 7.6 16.6 3.7 12.2

(c) Information technology related services

0.4 3.9 7.1 26.2 12.5 21.5

(d) Advertising and related services

0.9 5.0 3.8 19.1 -5.5 10.3

(e) Architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

1.7 7.7 7.6 16.5 -0.2 10.6

(f) Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services

1.3 8.9 10.8 20.8 4.0 14.9

c.f. Overall GDP at factor cost 297.7 1,159.0 1,216.2 14.6 1.0 9.8

Notes : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in GDP.

Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

Source : Census and Statistics Department.

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Annex 2

Employment in the professional services sector

Number of

persons engaged* Average annual growth rate

1991 1996 2001 1991-96 1996-2001 1991-2001

(%) (%) (%)

Professional services as a whole 71 300 106 500 126 200 8.4 3.5 5.9

(2.7) (3.6) (4.2)

Within which :

(a) Legal services 12 400 16 200 15 500 5.5 -0.9 2.3

(b) Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

12 500 18 200 17 100 7.8 -1.2 3.2

(c) Information technology related services

5 800 9 500 27 100 10.5 23.4 16.8

(d) Advertising and related services

11 900 18 700 19 400 9.5 0.8 5.1

(e) Architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

12 300 18 400 19 200 8.3 0.9 4.5

(f) Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business

management and consultancy services

16 500 25 600 27 800 9.2 1.7 5.4

c.f. Total employment in the economy (net of foreign domestic helpers)

2 682 700 2 925 200 3 029 400 1.7 0.7 1.2

Notes : (*) Figures for 1996 and 2001 are based on the “resident population” approach, while those for 1991 are based on the former “extended de facto population” approach.

( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in total employment of the economy.

Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

Source : Composite Employment Estimates, Census and Statistics Department.

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Number of professional personnel in selected professional associations Number of

professional personnel Average annual growth rate 1992 1997 2002 1992-97 1997-2002 1992-2002

(%) (%) (%)

Practising barristers* 485 660 794 6.4 3.8 5.1

Solicitors* 2 721 4 309 5 630 9.6 5.5 7.5

Professional accountants# 6 480 13 209 20 065 15.3 8.7 12.0

Registered architects+ 915 1 384 1 816 8.6 5.6 7.1

Engineers^ 4 803 7 545 9 604 9.5 4.9 7.2

Notes : (*) Figures refer to the number of barristers and lawyers registered under the Legal Practitioners Ordinance.

(#) Figures refer to the number of professional accountants registered with the Hong Kong Society of Accountants under the Professional Accountants Ordinance as in October of the corresponding year.

(+) Figures refer to the number of architects registered with the Hong Kong Institute of Architects under the Architects Registration Ordinance, which came into effect in 1990, as at end-March of the corresponding year.

(^) Figures refer to the number of Corporate Members of the Hong Kong Institute of Engineers as at end-March of the corresponding year.

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Annex 4

Projected manpower requirement for professional services in 2007

Actual employment

in 2001

Projected manpower requirement

in 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001

Number Number Number % change

Average annual %

change

Professional services 126 200 156 500 30 300 24.0 3.7

Of which :

(a) Legal services 15 500 20 500 5 000 32.3 4.8

(b) Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

17 100 22 400 5 300 31.0 4.6

(c) Information technology related services

27 100 37 600 10 500 38.6 5.6

(d) Advertising and related services 19 400 22 500 3 000 15.6 2.4 (e) Architectural, surveying and

project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

19 200 22 300 3 000 15.7 2.5

(f) Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services

27 800 31 300 3 500 12.5 2.0

c.f. Total employment in the economy (net of foreign domestic helpers)

3 029 400 3 222 700 193 300 6.4 1.0

Note : Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Economic Sector, Census and Statistics Department.

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for professional services in 2007

a) Legal services

b) Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons….

Actual figure Projected figure

10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons..

Actual figure Projected figure

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c) Information technology related services

d) Advertising and related services

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons….

Actual figure Projected figure

8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons

Actual figure Projected figure

(17)

f) Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services

8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons….

Actual figure Projected figure

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Year

Number of employed persons

Actual figure Projected figure

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Main points

z Large-scale infrastructure and development projects, together with increase in trade activities arising from continuous opening of the Mainland market, can be expected to generate ample opportunities to the business services sector generally and the professional services sector in particular.

z The Big Four accounting firms have already set up representative offices in the Mainland for over ten years, in the form of joint ventures, representative offices and affiliates. With China's accession to WTO, there will not be significant changes in the entry requirement for accounting firms in the Mainland. As to the small and medium-sized accounting firms, only a few of them have set up joint-ventures in the Mainland. For others, they work in the Mainland mainly on a job-related basis.

z The projection of manpower requirement for accounting firms is closely related to the overall economic situation.

z The number of supporting staff employed in legal firms has been on a downtrend since 1997.

The decrease is mainly attributable to the fall-off in the property market. Also relevant is the on-going process of office automation. Yet the downtrend is expected to level off in the coming few years.

z The number of lawyers, as indicated by the number of practising certificates issued by the Law Society, has been on a gradual increase.

z The architectural services industry has been undergoing a structural change, with more fresh graduates being employed at lower pay.

z Some laid-off architects have become self-employed practitioners. Thus the number of architect firms has increased in the past few years.

z The stagnant property market does not bode well for the architectural, construction and real estate related professionals in the near term.

z The recently agreed reciprocal recognition of construction-related professional qualifications between the Mainland’s and Hong Kong’s professional bodies should help local professionals to establish a foothold in the Mainland.

• The wider use of information technology and the trend of contracting out information technology services so as to enjoy lower cost will increase manpower requirement in information technology related services. Its share in the professional services sector will continue to increase.

Projection methodology

• With professional services cutting across a number of sub-sectors under the business services sector, such as legal services, accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services, information technology related services, and engineering services, etc., manpower requirement for professional services cannot be projected from a single statistical model. Rather, it is extracted from the model-based projection made to the business services sector, based on the shares of individual professional services employment within the business services sector over the past years.

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Proportion to the business services sector 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

proportion in 2007 (%)

Legal services 10.2 10.0 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.4 10.2 9.2 8.6 7.7 7.3 7.8

Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.5 11.0 10.6 10.0 10.8 9.5 8.5 8.0 8.6

Information technology related services 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.3 7.1 7.8 10.7 12.7 14.4

Advertising and related services 9.7 10.0 11.6 10.7 10.6 10.8 9.6 8.6 10.0 9.4 9.1 8.6

Architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

10.1 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.6 10.7 9.9 10.3 10.1 9.2 9.0 8.5

Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services

13.5 13.8 13.7 14.5 14.1 14.9 16.3 14.1 12.5 13.2 13.1 12.0

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Projection after incorporating expert views and judgement

Relevant economic sector

Projected manpower requirement of economic sector

concerned in 2007

Assumed proportion to

economic sector concerned in 2007

Projected manpower requirement for

professional services in 2007 (%)

Legal services Business services 261 800 7.8 20 500

Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services

Business services 261 800 8.6 22 400

Information technology related services

Business services 261 800 14.4 37 600

Advertising and related services

Business services 261 800 8.6 22 500

Architectural, surveying and project engineering services related to construction and real estate activities

Business services 261 800 8.5 22 300

Engineering services (not related to construction and real estate activities) and business management and consultancy services

Business services 261 800 12.0 31 300

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Projected manpower requirement for professional services in 2007

by occupation category

Actual employment

in 2001

Projected manpower

requirement in 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001

Number % share Number % share Number % change

Average annual %

change Managers and

administrators 14 100 11.2 19 900 12.7 5 700 40.4 5.8

Professionals 39 100 31.0 54 800 35.0 15 700 40.1 5.8

Associate professionals 46 000 36.5 61 900 39.6 15 900 34.5 5.1

Clerks 23 200 18.3 16 400 10.5 -6 700 -29.0 -5.5

Service workers and shop

sales workers # * # * # -12.9 -2.3

Craft and related workers 1 300 1.0 900 0.6 -400 -32.2 -6.3

Plant and machine operators and

assemblers 500 0.4 300 0.2 -200 -44.1 -9.2

Elementary occupations 1 800 1.5 2 200 1.4 400 19.8 3.1

Overall 126 200 100.0 156 500 100.0 30 300 24.0 3.7

Notes : (*) Share of less than 0.05%.

(#) Number involved being less than 50.

Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Occupation Category and Educational Attainment within Economic Sector, Education and Manpower Bureau.

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Annex 7

Projected manpower requirement for professional services in 2007

by educational attainment

Actual employment

in 2001

Projected manpower

requirement in 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001

Number % share Number % share Number % change

Average annual %

change

Postgraduate 10 800 8.6 18 200 11.7 7 400 68.9 9.1

First degree 47 200 37.4 75 300 48.2 28 200 59.7 8.1

Sub-degree 11 200 8.9 18 000 11.5 6 800 60.9 8.3

Technician 7 200 5.7 7 000 4.5 -200 -3.0 -0.5

Craft 600 0.4 600 0.4 100 14.1 2.2

Matriculation 9 300 7.3 10 200 6.5 900 10.2 1.6

Upper secondary 31 300 24.8 19 900 12.7 -11 400 -36.3 -7.2

Lower secondary and below 8 700 6.9 7 100 4.5 -1 600 -18.1 -3.3

Overall 126 200 100.0 156 500 100.0 30 300 24.0 3.7

Note : Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Occupation Category and Educational Attainment within Economic Sector, Education and Manpower Bureau.

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Econometric model for projecting

manpower requirement in professional services up to 2007

Model structure

Based on the actual data input for 1991-2001, one single-equation model is calibrated for projecting the manpower requirement for professional services. By reference to a priori reasoning and revelation from the test statistics, the following model is chosen :

log EMPROt = -4.198 + 0.185 log EMPROt-1 + 0.855 log GDPt

(-3.89) (2.15) (6.04)

+ 0.187 log ESTPROt (2.04)

R2 = 0.9929 R2 = 0.9894 DW = 1.941

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent the t-statistics of the respective regression coefficients.

where EMPROt = manpower requirement for professional services in period t GDPt = Gross Domestic Product at constant (2000) prices in period t ESTPROt = number of establishments engaged in the provision of professional

services in period t

Assumptions

2. The input assumptions adopted for the explanatory variables are summarised below :

(a) GDP is assumed to follow a trend growth rate of around 3% in real terms per annum over 2003-07.

(b) The number of establishments engaged in the provision of professional services is assumed to increase at an average annual rate of around 2.5%

between 2001 and 2007, in line with the trend during 1996-2001.

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Projection results

3. The projection results are summarised below :

Manpower requirement in : Actual average annual growth

rate during

Projected average annual growth

rate during 1991* 2001* 2007+ 1991-2001 2001-07

(%) (%)

Professional services 71 300 126 200 153 900 5.9 3.4

Notes : (*) Actual figures.

(+) Projected figures.

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Business prospects over the next 5 years in view of

Hong Kong’s economic restructuring and China’s accession to WTO - Professional services

Number of establishments

Degree of optimism :

Size of

establishment*

Very

optimistic Optimistic

Neither optimistic

nor

pessimistic Pessimistic

Very pessimistic

No

comment Total

Small 211

(1.4)

3 661 (23.8)

6 927 (45.0)

2 813 (18.3)

836 (5.4)

960 (6.2)

15 407 (100.0)

Medium-sized 1

(0.1)

736 (35.7)

700 (33.9)

301 (14.6)

30 (1.5)

295 (14.3)

2 064 (100.0)

Large 15

(3.7)

147 (37.5)

85 (21.6)

77 (19.5)

0 (0.0)

69 (17.7)

392 (100.0)

Overall 226

(1.3)

4 545 (25.4)

7 712 (43.2)

3 191 (17.9)

866 (4.8)

1 324 (7.4)

17 864 (100.0)

Notes : (*) Establishments are categorised into small, medium-sized and large enterprises according to the number of persons engaged. For establishments in the non-manufacturing sector, those employing less than 10 persons are classified as small enterprises, 10-49 persons as medium-sized enterprises, and 50 persons and more as large enterprises.

( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the respective row totals.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

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Annex 10

Impact of Hong Kong’s economic restructuring and

China’s accession to WTO on business turnover over the next 5 years - Professional services

Number of establishments

Impact on business turnover Significant

increase

Some increase

No change

Some decrease

Significant decrease

No

comment Total 572

(3.2)

3 901 (21.8)

7 499 (42.0)

2 485 (13.9)

2 072 (11.6)

1 334 (7.5)

17 864 (100.0)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the total.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(27)

Investment in the mainland of China - Professional services

Number of establishments

Whether having investment in the mainland of China

Yes No Not specified Total

1 440 (8.1)

15 455 (86.5)

969 (5.4)

17 864 (100.0)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the total.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(28)

Annex 12

New business opportunities brought about by China’s accession to WTO - Professional services

Number of establishments

Whether expecting new business opportunities

Yes No Not specified Total

7 163 (40.1)

8 978 (50.3)

1 722 (9.6)

17 864 (100.0)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the total.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(29)

Implications on Hong Kong’s business environment over the next 5 years upon China’s accession to WTO

- Professional services

Major areas of concern Number of establishments

Need to better understand the market and changes in investment environment in the mainland of China

12 616 (70.6)

Face keener competition from enterprises in the mainland of China

12 186 (68.2) More companies to relocate business operations to

the mainland of China

11 644 (65.2) More inducement to conduct business in the

mainland of China upon more objective and transparent rules and regulations

10 786 (60.4)

Face keener competition from overseas companies 9 525 (53.3) Hong Kong's middleman role to diminish 9 465 (53.0) Benefit from increase in business opportunities

upon liberalisation of the Mainland market

9 280 (51.9) Hong Kong's middleman role in provision of

services to strengthen further

7 953 (44.5)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the total number of establishments engaged in professional services.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(30)

Annex 14

Measures to be taken over the next 5 years to cope with

Hong Kong’s economic restructuring and China's accession to WTO - Professional services

Measure Number of establishments

Increase the use of IT within the company 9 577 (53.6)

Upgrade the skills of existing staff 8 681

(48.6)

Diversify the business of the company 7 877

(44.1) Upgrade the capability of the workforce on

technology and language skills

7 661 (42.9) Focus on the core business and reduce the peripheral

business with lower value-added content

6 551 (36.7) Restructuring of organisation and/or business process

to stay competitive

6 259 (35.0)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the total number of establishments engaged in professional services.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(31)

Percentage distribution of persons engaged as at mid-2002 and mid-2007 by educational attainment

- Professional services

Educational attainment Percentage distribution of persons engaged

Mid-2002 Mid-2007

Postgraduate 5.7 9.3

First degree 43.6 49.6

Sub-degree 7.8 8.1

Technician 6.2 4.4

Craft 0.9 0.5

Matriculation 8.7 9.5

Upper secondary 22.3 14.8

Lower secondary and below 4.8 3.7

Overall 100.0 100.0

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(32)

Annex 16

Percentage distribution of persons engaged as at mid-2002 and mid-2007 by occupation category

- Professional services

Occupation category Percentage distribution of persons engaged

Mid-2002 Mid-2007

Managers and administrators 18.7 18.5

Professionals 28.4 29.3

Associate professionals 21.1 21.9

Clerks 21.7 20.6

Service workers and shop sales workers

2.7 2.9

Craft and related workers 1.6 1.5

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

0.9 0.9

Elementary occupations 4.8 4.4

Overall 100.0 100.0

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(33)

Training plans/training budget for employees - Professional services

Number of establishments

Whether having training plans/training budget for employees

Yes No Not specified Total

Training plans 2 218

(17.9)

8 607 (69.5)

1 559 (12.6)

12 384 (100.0) Training budget 1 708

(13.8)

9 116 (73.6)

1 560 (12.6)

12 384 (100.0)

Note : ( ) Figures in brackets represent % shares in the respective totals.

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(34)

Annex 18

Types of skills to be enhanced by occupation category - Professional services

Occupation category Type of skills to be enhanced Managers and administrators Management skills

Professionals IT skills

Associate professionals IT skills

Clerks Language skills

Service workers and shop sales workers IT skills

Craft and related workers Job-specific skills Plant and machine operators and assemblers Language skills

Elementary occupations Language skills

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(35)

Preferred training mode - Professional services

Ranking Preferred training mode

1 Extra-mural courses

2 Self-learning (outside office hours)

3 In-house training

4 On-the-job training

5 Contract-out

6 Web-based training

7 Distance learning

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements, Census and Statistics Department.

(36)

Annex 20

Persons engaged by perceived prospects of the sector - Professional services

Perceived prospects %

Fast growth 7.6

Moderate growth 43.3

Slow growth 31.1

No growth 10.6

Contraction 7.4

Total 100.0

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of the Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department

(37)

Persons engaged by challenges/problems faced - Professional services

Challenges/problems faced# %

Corporate downsizing 39.6

Keen competition amongst companies within the sector 38.9 Cost reduction (including salary/wage cuts) 28.4

Contraction of business 17.8

Slow growth 11.3

Outsourcing 8.1

Relocation of work place to other countries/territories 6.3 Less competitive against other countries/territories 5.1

No challenge/problem 12.8

Note : (#) Multiple answers are allowed.

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of the Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

(38)

Annex 22

Persons engaged by whether having been affected by the prevalence of corporate restructuring

since 2001 and impact on persons engaged as a result of corporate restructuring

- Professional services

Whether having been affected by the prevalence of corporate restructuring since 2001/impact on

persons engaged as a result of corporate restructuring # %

Yes# 24.8

Increasing work pressure (48.6)

Salary/wage cuts (41.1)

Longer working hours (36.0)

Reduction in fringe benefits (23.4)

More flexible working hours (13.4)

Had ever been laid-off/dismissed (8.5)

Risk of being laid-off/dismissed (4.9)

Slack work (0.8)

No 75.2

Total 100.0

Notes : (#) Multiple answers are allowed.

Figures in brackets represent % shares of all persons engaged in professional services who had been affected by the prevalence of corporate restructuring since 2001.

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of the Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

(39)

Persons engaged by whether possessing sufficient job-specific skills to meet the current job requirements

- Professional services

Whether possessing sufficient job-specific skills

to meet the current job requirements %

Very sufficient 16.2

Sufficient 82.6

Insufficient 1.2

Very insufficient --

Total 100.0

Note : (--) Less than 0.05%.

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of the Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

(40)

Annex 24

Persons engaged by whether having attended

job-related training/retraining courses arranged by employers or on own initiative in the past 12 months

- Professional services

Yes No Total

(%) (%) (%)

Attended job-related training/

retraining courses

arranged by employers 16.9 83.1 100.0

on own initiative 11.1 88.9 100.0

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of the Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

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