模糊風險評估及其在重大環境考量面之鑑別 柯智元、陳宜清、劉豐瑞
E-mail: [email protected]
摘 要
環境風險評估即為環境評估的風險化，可視為環境評估工作的核心，這些評估工作可以包含環境影響評估(Environmental Impact Assessment)、環境考量面鑑別(Identification of Environmental Aspects)、生命週期評估(Life Cycle Assessment)等。本研 究根據英國環境食品農業事務部定義之環境風險評估的五個步驟(危害鑑定、後果鑑定、後果規模的估算、後果發生機率估 計與風險顯著性評估)，進而提出一個具有七個步驟的模糊風險評估系統：(1)問題描述：包含鑑別危害來源、受體與危害對 於受體造成之效應與損害，在此可以援引生命週期衝擊評估之概念來協助釐清危害來源、受體與效應之因果關係；(2)危害 嚴重性評估：評估者根據主觀經驗來進行評估，因此以模糊邏輯(Fuzzy Logic)來模擬之；(3)評估危害之發生機率：發生之 機率值如果無法取得詳實的統計資料時，以模糊機率(Fuzzy Probability)處理之；(4)評估受體曝露於危害效應之機率：同時 考慮危害造成效應與受體受到效應的機率，該機率值如果無法取得詳實的統計資料時，以模糊機率處理之；(5)評估受體因 為曝露危害造成損害發生之機率：發生之機率值如果無法取得詳實的統計資料時，以模糊機率處理之；(6)評估損害之風險
：利用模糊之四則運算之頂點法(Vertex Method)將上述之各項評估直整合計算成一風險值；(7)評估風險之顯著性：風險之 顯著性以多準則多關聯綜合評估法(Multi-criteria and Multi-connection Comprehensive Assessment, MCCA)來輔助決策。最後
，以一塑膠工廠之衝擊評估與一土石方處理工廠之環境考量面鑑別為案例，來說明本模糊風險評估的可行性。
關鍵詞 : 模糊風險評估、生命週期評估、模糊邏輯、多準則多關聯綜合評估法 目錄
封面內頁 簽名頁 授權書iii 中文摘要iv 英文摘要vi 誌謝vii 目錄viii 圖目錄x 表目錄vi 第一章 緒論1 1.1研究動機1 1.2研究目 的7 1.3研究流程8 第二章 文獻回顧10 2.1 ISO 14001環境管理系統10 2.2環境考量面鑑別與評估方法之文獻11 2.3模糊方法應 用環境風險評估之相關文獻14 2.4模糊風險評估方法之相關文獻23 第三章 研究方法27 3.1問題描述30 3.2危害嚴重性評 估(S1)32 3.2.1 模糊邏輯32 3.2.2 以模糊推理進行危害嚴重性評估(S)39 3.3評估危害之發生機率( P1)43 3.4評估受體曝露於危 害效應之機率( P2)44 3.5評估從曝露危害到損害發生之機率( P3)44 3.6 評估損害之風險(R)45 3.6.1頂點法45 3.6.2建立模糊類 別48 3.6.3模糊分類49 3.6.4距離法50 3.7評估風險之顯著性51 第四章 案例研究分析與討論56 4.1環境衝擊評估-塑膠工廠56 4.2環境考量面鑑別-土石方回收再利用處理廠83 4.3討論111 第五章 結論與建議113 5.1結論113 5.2建議114 參考文獻115 參考文獻
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