• 沒有找到結果。

第六章 結論與建議

第二節 建議

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第二節 建議

在探討世代差異時,有兩種可能情況,一為單純因為出生世代不同而造成的 差異,另一即為年齡改變所造成的差異。前者為「代間」的不同,亦即以前 30 歲和以後 30 歲的差別;後者為「時間」的不同,指的是同一人從 30 歲到 40 歲 的差異。此次研究主要針對前者進行討論,本應將兩世代家庭的年齡設定為相 同,才能看出單純因為「世代」造成的差異。但礙於有效樣本的取得,已盡量將 年齡差距限縮,最終選取 RI1999 和 RI2003 兩年的資料,前者家戶年齡在受訪當 年是介於 35-46 歲,後者介於 27-39 歲,兩世代的年齡仍有所差距。因此,對於 單純地探討世代差異,仍有所偏誤。此外,若能夠取得更近年度的資料,則世代 差異的明顯程度勢必會更加明顯。期待往後研究能夠針對不足之處進行修正,俾 能對住宅市場的世代分析研究增添更多貢獻。

在資料取得上,我們只能得知房屋所有權為「自有」或「父母所有」,但「自 有」家庭當中,存在「自己購屋」或「父母贈與」兩種行為可能性,有多少比例 的家庭是「自己購屋」並無從得知。若能將「與父母同住」變數納入考量,透過 自有房屋中與父母同住的比例,或者父母所有房屋中與父母同住的比例,也許能 夠對代間移轉的現象有更進一步的探討,使研究更加完善。

針對 IIA 的問題,本研究僅單純假設不會發生,並沒有對解決方式多加著 墨,因此選用簡單多項式羅吉特模型進行實證分析。然而,多數學者指出,巢式 羅吉特模型是能夠解決 IIA 問題的方式之一。若以巢式羅吉特模型分析,先區分

「自有」與「租用」,而在「自有」之下,再區分「真正自有」與「父母所有」,

接著再區分「同住」與「不同住」,如此作法下,分析結果會有何不同、能否使 模型結果更加顯著,有待日後研究之。

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84.91% 85.40% 87.89%

0

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附表 1 台灣地區戶數結構表 (民國 95-99 年)

年 別 總 計 1人家戶 2人家戶 3人家戶 4人家戶 5人家戶 6人以上家戶 共同事業戶

民國95年 7,394,758 1,952,987 1,309,669 1,302,751 1,327,650 764,284 736,703 714

民國96年 7,512,449 2,022,901 1,352,358 1,335,536 1,327,161 749,799 724,013 681

民國97年 7,655,772 2,111,331 1,400,960 1,370,466 1,333,355 737,138 701,867 655

民國98年 7,805,834 2,201,706 1,452,129 1,409,487 1,340,155 723,974 677,768 615

民國99年 7,937,024 2,284,980 1,501,732 1,442,514 1,342,424 710,481 654,296 597

單位:戶

資料來源:內政部戶政司

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