第五章 結論與建議

第二節 建議

政策建議

本研究透過實證分析,發現房價變動與所得分配差距存在當期與跨期的正向 關聯。臺灣所得分配差距的擴大,房價的變動可能在當中扮演關鍵的角色;另一 方面,房價的上漲,背後隱含的原因可能是所得分配差距的擴大。換言之,高所 得階層之所得上升幅度較高,進而增加其投資不動產之需求。於政府角度而言,

抑制房價的飆漲與減緩所得分配不均的程度皆為當務之急,根據本研究實證結果,

此二者互為因果,且如未即時解決可能會造成嚴重的惡性循環,有鑑於此,本研 究提出政策建議如下。

根據 Panel VAR 與衝擊反應函數實證結果,本研究發現薪資的成長對於所得 分配差距有縮小之作用。薪資為非高所得族群(即大多數中低所得族群)之主要收 入來源。建議政府在政策制定上可朝向提升整體薪資水準之方向前進,除對所得 分配不均程度有縮小之作用外,亦可增加中低所得族群之可支配所得,提升其房 屋購買能力,達兩全其美之效。此外,根據隨機效果模型與衝擊反應函數分析結 果,皆顯示 FDI 的增加會造成所得分配差距的擴大,且外來資金之流入亦會造成 國內房價之上漲,建議應健全國內投資管道,避免大量資金流入不動產市場,除 再次擴大所得分配不均外,另造成房價上漲。

此外,稅制與社會福利議題雖非為本文實證分析所討論之對象,然而對應到 Piketty(2014)與第二章文獻回顧結果,本研究認為政策制定上若能朝稅制方向著 手,如對不動產資本課徵較高之持有稅、重新檢討遺產稅問題,將可同時改善所 得不均與房價居高不下等問題。另外,在社會福利政策上,除金錢補貼外,應可 再強化居住正義面向,如重新擬定購買人或承租人之資格限制,並結合民間或第 三部門,以各種優惠方式,鼓勵參與興辦出租或出售之社會住宅,或給予中低所 得族更多的租金補貼與低利貸款,除保障低所得者之住屋需求外,亦能改善分配 不均之情形,更落實居住正義之體現。

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後續研究建議

一、 擴大研究時間與空間範圍

本研究受限於國內房價資料取得不易,未有全體縣市長期時間序列之房價資 料,僅得配合永慶房價指數所發布之縣市進行分析。然而,在不同的地區,影響 所得分配與房價之因素亦各有差異,若加入其他縣市一併進行探討,是否會得出 相同結論則有待進一步分析與討論。日後研究若能取得更多縣市(橫斷面)與更長 期(縱斷面)之資料,以追蹤資料進行分析,分析上亦較有其代表性,將提升整體 分析的精確程度。

二、 以實價登錄資料作為房價資料之變數

因實價登錄資料期間尚不足作為時間序列研究之資料,本研究以永慶房價指 數作為房價資料之變數,然而,指數資料僅得呈現一縣市房價變動之整體趨勢,

對於各種不同類型房屋(如大樓、透天或公寓)之個別變動情形卻無法掌握,高低 所得者對於不同類型之房屋應有其偏好與需求,建議待實價登錄資料期間足以作 為觀察對象後,以其作為房價變動之變數,分析上更能將不動產之異質性納入考 量。

三、 加入更多衡量所得分配之指標

如第二章所述,衡量所得分配之指標有數種,其各自亦有其代表意義。本研 究受限於資料限制,僅能以綜合所得稅之所得差距倍數作為衡量所得分配之指標,

建議後續針對此議題之研究可加入更多衡量所得分配之指標,使實證結果更臻完 善。

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