後續研究方向

由於時間及資源的限制，故本研究只以有限方法，針對前瞻共識形成的幾個面向進行分析，分析的對象僅限於四個案例及一個臺灣實際進行中的試行計劃。

由於對前膽共識形成的變數了解不多，故本研究探索性質比重較高，並未以數量方法作精確的衡量。

以下就研究者於完成本研究心得，說明重要性高尚值得深入探討，或可以更科學化方法分析之重要議題：

(1) 前瞻流程中不同方法組合之探討：本研究提出以共識為核心前瞻巨觀模型中的前瞻動態三角型，以創新與創意、專業與分析、及共識與網路三個維度，

說明不同方法的定位。但是對於實際上如何組合不同的方法，用以達到前瞻的目的，至今仍未有較好的指引。這點不論在理論或實務上都需要有適當的指引工具。

(2) 前瞻流程中與政府有關部會間政治互動的關係：本研究指出前瞻活動有高比重的政治成份，在定位上必須和政府的公共政策產生連結，同時必需發揮影響力，得到執政當局的支持才可。在實際上，如何經由前瞻的運作組織、流程、資訊流動、及調整，持續得到政府有關部會的支持，是一個值得深入了解的問題。唯有能影響施政政策的前瞻，才能驅動真正的對話討論。

(3) 前瞻流程中從偏好的未來轉換為行動方案的過程本研究提出模型中前瞻的共識內容中，關鍵的階段為如何從偏好的未來轉換為行動方案，這個階段必須將二十年或三十年後的目標，對應回推到現今應採取的行動。這個轉換的過程不是簡單的規劃過程，而是同樣必須處理不同關係者間的差異及看法，值得深入探究。

(4) 前瞻流程中人際網路的建立對執行推動的影響：本研究以共識形成為主要探討議題，對於前瞻三角形同端的另一個重點：人際網路，受限於研究題目及範圍的限制，並沒有特別著墨。前瞻強調權益關係者參與的另一個重點為增加對結論事項執行的承諾及減小推動阻力，人際網路在這個過程中如何作用，值得探討。

(5) 前瞻流程中共識形成程度的衡量：本研究採取質化的分析，對於共識形成的程度，並未提出實際的量測觀念及方法。關於共識形成的研究中，不乏以數量方法對共識形成程度進行衡量者。如能借用一適當衡量方法，對於實務上，

尤其是未來在透過網路進行討論時，可作為評估共識形成程度的基礎。一但

有了評估共識程度的基礎，對於何種方法較為適用，也有公平的分析基礎。

(6) 前瞻流程中提供參與者進行程序及資訊指引方式：本研究分析指出前瞻參與者必須投入許多時間及精力，並要有高品質的資訊作為基礎，否則參與者將會產生操作流程上的混淆或分心於行政事務，影響對前瞻討論的動機及共識的形成。本研究前瞻學院中採用的作法，是將不同的分析獨立進行，可簡化管理工作，可解決這個問題，但那是在專家人數眾多的前提下的作法。如何提供足夠的進行程序及資訊指引，是一個值得探究的問題。

(7) 歐洲前瞻案例與美國前瞻案例的差異：本研究中提及不同國家的案例，包括英國、瑞典、德國、美國，從內容描述中發現歐洲前瞻案例互相影響的程度頗高，思維上也相近，只是針對國情作部份調整。但本研究採用美國前瞻學院案例，不管在經費來源、互動方法、政策影響、及影響力的發揮，都有相當程度和歐洲的案例有明顯的不同，這個差異值得細部探討。

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