第五章 結論與建議
第三節 後續研究發展
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重，使投資者可利用匯率波動的時機，提供較高的短期報酬。同時，業者 可以在債券市場反映經濟成長的正向利差訊息下，針對市場對於美國長期 經濟成長有疑慮的狀態以及美國股市處於低檔的兩種情形，提高看多澳幣 為主的雙元存款產品的比重，可發揮資金短期配置的財富管理效益。綜合 以上論點，雙元存款產品的現金流量補償機制必須依據不同市場狀態與 Mean/StDev 數值差距，以反映投資人所面臨的風險，進而創造產品特色，
以擴大市場佔有率，達到投資人與財富管理操作機構雙贏的局面。
第二節 建議
雙元存款產品結合「外幣定期存款」與「外匯選擇權」，屬於目前市場 熱賣的商品，但是理財專員推薦該產品時，是否符合財富管理客戶之投資 效益? 因此，本研究提出以下建議。
依據本研究分析過程，財富管理業者應解說不同市場狀態下，各種雙 元外匯存款產品所隱含的外匯選擇權操作差異，特別是根據美國 FED 的貨 幣政策與美國債券市場的利差資訊，做出適當的資金流轉過程與資產配置 的動態調整機制。
其中，雙元外匯存款產品很有可能會讓投資者資金在弱勢貨幣與強勢 貨幣之間移動，未必對於投資者產生利益。故財富管理業者應強化總體經 濟市場的分析，例如依據美國股市與利差資訊等，幫助投資者了解不同的 貨幣配置的目的與適合方式，制定完整的配套措施，規避雙元外匯存款產 品所可能產生的持有弱勢貨幣的現象。在此基礎下，雙元外匯存款產品與 現有各家業者的財富管理模式搭配，可以發展較適宜的短中長期資金分配 計畫。
第三節 後續研究發展
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本研究以集群分析與模擬操作分析為主，提出外匯選擇權賣權操作之初 步理解過程。針對過去文獻，本研究基礎可以延伸至外匯市場的波動程度 的研判方法，例如許能凱(2006)所提到的 ARCH 與 GARCH 等模型或其衍 生模型。
就數理模型方面，未來研究方向可以結合 Klaassen(2002)所提出的結構 轉換，以此強化外匯市場波動性轉變過程的理解過程，提供財富管理機構 的交易操作部門的參考依據。
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