第五章 結論與政策建議
第二節 政策建議與研究限制
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立 政 治 大 學
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N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
不能代表台北都會區整體人流。限制二在於台北捷運OD 旅次資料可取得期間最 早始於2009 年，而為配合本研究時間範圍，最後僅使用 2011 年捷運旅次資料，
本研究中並未進行跨年期的旅次分析。資料限制三在於捷運每日分時各站OD 旅 次原始資料不含旅次目的、實際旅次產生地及吸引地，本研究僅能透過依時段篩 選出旅次的方式假設旅次目的、旅次產生地、吸引地，然其與實際情況依舊有所 落差。
（二）追蹤資料模型解釋力偏低
本研究使用追蹤資料模型，分析村里透過捷運路網觸及到外在機會數量的多 寡對當地土地使用變化的影響，模型解釋力整體而言偏低，其可能原因在於本研 究使用之控制變數尚不足夠。
三、後續研究建議
（一）納入不同年期捷運旅次分析
本研究進行時受限於工商普查資料、捷運旅次資料可取得年份，最後選定研 究期間始於台北捷運通車前之1991 年，往後五年一期直至 2011 年，未能進行跨 年期的捷運旅次分析。未來若能取得105 年工商普查資料，即可配合 105 年捷運 旅次資料進行跨年期的捷運人流與土地使用變化分析，應能對都會區內都市土地 使用變化主題研究有所助益。
（二）增加地方吸引力變數
本研究使用追蹤資料模型進行實證分析，最後結果模型解釋力偏低，可能原 因在於地方吸引力等控制變數選取不足，未來建議能加入更多衡量地方吸引力的 控制變數，方能對都市土地使用變化影響因素有更清楚的釐清。
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網頁參考文獻
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