第四章 實證分析
第四節 假說驗證
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立 政 治 大 學
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可及性對三級產業土地使用密度產生正向影響」的因果效應。
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立 政 治 大 學
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時，實證結果顯示儘管台北都會區市郊地區間之住業均衡程度在1996-2011 年間 有不一樣的變遷趨勢，然比較市區及郊區內是否鄰近捷運地區間住業均衡程度變 化有無不同時，並無明顯差異。顯示捷運設施並不會顯著地影響周邊居住就業比 例(J/H)的方式增加市郊區間連接情形。換言之，2011 年台北捷運以工作為導向 的旅次表現出起迄點跨市郊區、並以核心區為主要目的地的旅次型態，其可能僅 是反映出整體都會區內人口、廠家於都會區市郊地區間遷移的結果，而非來自捷 運設施本身帶來的影響。
而以追蹤資料模型分析村里透過捷運設施觸及到外在機會數量多寡是否對 當地土地使用造成影響時，研究結果顯示村里「三級產業人口密度」與其「捷運 人口可及性(被動式可及性)」成顯著性正相關，顯示地區透過捷運沿線接觸到越 多外在人口，當地三級產業單位面積土地使用強度越高，符合捷運系統提升外地 人口到當地土地的易達性會促進當地土地使用發展的理論假設。
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立 政 治 大 學
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不能代表台北都會區整體人流。限制二在於台北捷運OD 旅次資料可取得期間最 早始於2009 年，而為配合本研究時間範圍，最後僅使用 2011 年捷運旅次資料，
本研究中並未進行跨年期的旅次分析。資料限制三在於捷運每日分時各站OD 旅 次原始資料不含旅次目的、實際旅次產生地及吸引地，本研究僅能透過依時段篩 選出旅次的方式假設旅次目的、旅次產生地、吸引地，然其與實際情況依舊有所 落差。
（二）追蹤資料模型解釋力偏低
本研究使用追蹤資料模型，分析村里透過捷運路網觸及到外在機會數量的多 寡對當地土地使用變化的影響，模型解釋力整體而言偏低，其可能原因在於本研 究使用之控制變數尚不足夠。
三、後續研究建議
（一）納入不同年期捷運旅次分析
本研究進行時受限於工商普查資料、捷運旅次資料可取得年份，最後選定研 究期間始於台北捷運通車前之1991 年，往後五年一期直至 2011 年，未能進行跨 年期的捷運旅次分析。未來若能取得105 年工商普查資料，即可配合 105 年捷運 旅次資料進行跨年期的捷運人流與土地使用變化分析，應能對都會區內都市土地 使用變化主題研究有所助益。
（二）增加地方吸引力變數
本研究使用追蹤資料模型進行實證分析，最後結果模型解釋力偏低，可能原 因在於地方吸引力等控制變數選取不足，未來建議能加入更多衡量地方吸引力的 控制變數，方能對都市土地使用變化影響因素有更清楚的釐清。
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網頁參考文獻
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