未來通信結構的組成

行動替代固網 (FMS) 和無線替代固網和行動 (wireless to fixed and mobile substitution, FMWS)，將影響個別國家未來通信基礎架構 (infrastructure) 的組 成。經由行動或無線亦可達到普及的服務，故電信政策的管制者有責任以前瞻的 思維，引導業者因科技進步帶來的商機，擘劃國家通信組成的方向。無線寬頻因 具有潛在的低成本優勢，並可結合 IP 網路將某種程度替代語音和上網的使用。

行動替代固網和無線替代固網和行動替代模式，將有如螳螂捕蟬而黃雀在後的關 係，而政策管制者將有如獵人般決定戰局輸贏的演變。預期各國未來通信結構配 置比例，將依國民所得的高低呈現明顯的不同，發生以通信量替代主的 G7 國家 和亞洲四小龍，其固網及行動基礎網路發展較為完備，預期無線在通信結構中的 配置比例將會較低。

傳統以固網作為電信普及服務的典範將被推翻。以普及替代為主的東南亞國 家和金磚四國，須為行動通訊的角色重新定位，將來語音之外的上網資料需求來

臨，行動資料頻寬不足以擔綱資料傳輸需求，則用戶會回頭使用 IP 固網，使已 停滯或下滑的固網普及率重新提升；或轉向使用無線上網，預期 WiMax 建設成 本相對於傳統固網低廉，將可能為固網普及率低的開發中國家廣泛採用，使行動 和無線網路相對於固網的配置比例較高，影響一個國家通信基礎網路的佈局。因 此，電信業者海外投資佈局不能再侷限於唯固網或唯行動業者的思維，未來或可 直接申請 WiMax 執照去海外經營語音和數據服務，此皆值得後續進一步的觀察 與探討，詳見圖 5.2：

G7, NIE

PSTN network should transfer as IP Network to be survived.

W % 100 %

0 %

Fixed-line -ADSL, Cable, Fiber

Mobile

Wireless Income

level High

Low

Deployment Cost Technology Novelty Hi

Lo High

Low BRIC

ASEAN

Value Proposition

z USO z Basic Voice z Hi-end B-band z Mobility z Ubiquity

F % M %

圖 5.2 未來通信基礎架構的組成 資料來源: Mao (2005)

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