第六章 結論與建議
第二節 研究建議
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不論以央行或投審會資料進行迴歸分析，僅投審會資料之金融保險業結果為顯著，
但和預期方向不符。因此在實證上，並未發現有效邊際稅率與外人來臺投資之關 聯性。在非租稅變數方面，不論是央行或投審會資料，雖然在不同行業別與來源 別無法有完全一致的顯著結果，但是仍可以看出勞動力教育程度反而是影響 FDI 的因素。
本文研究結果並未有足夠證據證實租稅誘因得以有效的吸引外人來臺投資 的情形。就實證結果來看，並無法用新古典模型來解釋臺灣租稅誘因和 FDI 之關 聯性；或許 CP 模型能提供更好的解釋，廠商的生產活動通常有聚集經濟的現象，
而產生聚集效應。當一國調降稅率，雖然會使投資報酬增加，然而把現有投資移 轉到其他國家，也需要成本，因此調降稅率並無法使廠商的投資決策有明顯改變，
只有當更低的租稅負擔能抵消企業群聚在原本地區的好處，則企業才會資本移往 其他國家。
每當政府推行政策，不論是喊著拼經濟的口號，或是想找出阻礙經濟發展的 絆腳石，想到的總是租稅誘因。期望本文或多或少能擺脫政府凡事依賴租稅政策 以及減稅刺激經濟，一意孤行的政策思維，轉而思考「非租稅面」的政策，並針 對不足之處做改善。
第二節 研究建議
本文有以下幾點貢獻：首先，既有文獻擇一選擇央行或投審會統計資料進行
實證分析，本文則將兩者一併列入討論。第二，採用央行資料時，文獻上僅考量 來臺投資總金額，而未將 FDI 來源細分成子公司保留盈餘再投資，以及來自母公 司資金移轉。本文嘗試在來臺總投資金額之外，再納入股本投資以及再投資收益，
從結果中可以看出再投資收益之迴歸有較高解釋力。第三，雖然 Fabling et al.
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(2013) 是運用公司個體資料，但由於臺灣沒有如同國外詳細完整的資料，只好 把方法運用在總體資料上，加上融資方法的假設後，依循 Fabling et al. (2013) 方 法，有效邊際稅率的估算較簡單。42 第四，本文把臺灣估算出的有效邊際稅率 和 Devereux et al. (2002) 國際資料作比較。第五，以勞動力教育程度作為勞動力 的品質納入實證模型中，並證實其為影響 FDI 的因素。
然而本文也有下列研究限制：首先，雖然 Fabling et al. (2013) 估算主要從資 產組合比重、資產折舊率和投資租稅抵減率著手，方法雖然簡單，然而國際上對 於有效邊際稅率的比較，主要仍是依循 Devereux and Griffith (2003)。第二，有效 邊際稅率雖然是決定各個區位要投資多少數量的關鍵因素，但不可避免會受參數 假設影響，且計算過程未考慮投資租稅抵減率。第三，投審會統計資料，華僑對 臺投資在研究期間由於占比甚低，迴歸之解釋力會和對臺總投資金額以及外國人 對臺投資有落差；專業、科學及技術服務業在模型適合性上也有疑慮。43
而針對上述研究限制，未來研究有三個方向可以努力：第一為如何依循 Devereux and Griffith (2003) 模型方法，把臺灣稅制細部規定納入考量，估算有 效邊際稅率。第二為是否有辦法找到適合解釋於各行業別和不同來源 FDI 的模型。
最後，本文一直相信租稅優惠要對產業升級或投資發揮作用，應該是一次性的政 策，換句話說實際實施租稅優惠政策的時效應該要和當初承諾時一致，而非像臺 灣目前做法，不斷把條例時效延長，或只是更換成另一個條例名稱，內容卻換湯 不換藥。Tornell (1991) 把時間不一致 (time inconsistency) 的問題以模型推導於 保護主義政策，其研究證實若存有時間不一致，公司將有誘因不做有效率的投資。
如何將此觀念具體化並納入實證資料中，值得思考。
42 台灣經濟新報資料庫 (Taiwan Economic Journal, TEJ) 有個別公司資料，但各公司難以依照主 計總處的行業標準定義，歸類至某一行業別；就算勉強可以歸類，資料庫的公司也幾乎以製造業 為主，其他行業別的公司不僅數量少，有的行業別甚至沒有公司可以作為代表。
43 華僑占對臺總 FDI 比重在本文樣本觀察期間 1981 年至 2011 年，年平均只有 5.87%，迴歸結果 常與對臺總投資金額以及外國人對臺投資之結果不一致。
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