研究限制與未來研究建議

第八章結論與建議

8.2 研究限制與未來研究建議

本研究探討了台灣半導體產業的發展經驗，並依之提出了一個以複雜度觀念為基礎的概念性架構，此架構適合用來理解產業與環境的互動行為，但是在面對區域發展中多角色的多邊關係時，仍有進一步思考的空間。此概念架構對於其他國家或是其他產業發展經驗的適用性，也待進一步探討。

在產業的學習部分，本研究所歸納的台灣半導體產業學習程序，並不適用於其他國家的發展過程。對於產業學習的理論建構，仍需要更多的觀察與研究。

在政策分析的部分，本研究運用系統動態學建構了一個發展模式作為政策分析的工具。系統動態學方法論於產業政策的分析上為十分有力的工具，值得繼續於其他產業或是其他應用領域進行更多的應用與研究。

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附錄一主要公司名稱對照表

中文名稱英文名稱

大王電子公司 (大王) Advanced Devices Technology Inc. (ADT) 日月光半導體公司

(日月光)

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Corp.

(ASE)

揚智科技公司 (揚智) ALI Corp. (ALI)

旺宏電子公司 (旺宏) Macronix International Corp. (MXIC) 聯發科技公司 (聯發) MEDIATEK Inc.

台灣茂矽電子公司 (茂矽) Mosel Vitelic Inc. (Mosel Vitelic) 南亞科技公司 (南亞) NANYA Technology Corp. (NANYA)

力晶半導體公司 (力晶) Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (Powerchip) 矽統科技公司 (矽統) Silicon Integrated Systems Corp. (SiS)

凌陽科技公司 (凌陽) Sunplus Technology Corp. (Sunplus) 台灣光罩公司 (台灣光罩) Taiwan Mask Corp. (TMC)

台灣積體電路製造公司 (台積電)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.

(TSMC)

聯華電子公司 (聯電) United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) 世界先進積體電路公司

(世界先進)

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp.

(VIS)

威盛電子公司 (威盛) VIA Technologies Inc. (VIA)

華邦電子公司 (華邦) Winbond Electronics Corp. (Winbond)

附錄二 Model Equations from Vensim

Profitability= Profatbility Table(SQRT(IC Fabrication Competency*min(RD Competency,1)))

IC Fabrication Competency= Competency Table(min(HR Fabs Ratio,600)) 資本市場供應資金量= max(Expansion*晶圓廠造價-Expenditure,0)

employ= Working+IF THEN ELSE(Time<=1989, Come Back*1+quit*1 , 0 )

leave= IC fabrication Manpower*0.1

quit= RD Institution HR*min((0.05+Attractiveness*0.1),1)

IC Industry Sales= Number of Fabs*晶圓廠造價*Profitability*1.35 Expenditure=

min(Accumulated Capital,Expansion*晶圓廠造價+(International Cooperation+RD Manpower)\

*0.0005) ~

~ |

擴廠上限= max((HR Fabs Ratio/400-1)*Number of Fabs,0) Competency

Table([(0,0)-(600,1)],(0,0.001),(100,0.35),(200,0.6),(400,0.85),(600,1)) Expansion=delay1(min(max(HR Fabs Ratio/400-1,0)*Number of Fabs,(Accumulated Capital+Capital Market Funding)/晶圓廠造價),2) Capital Mkt Endorsement= EndorsementTable(Profitability)/1.95 Capital Market Funding= delay1(Ecomonic Development

Status(Time),1)*Capital Mkt Endorsement

Profit= Government Funds+Profitability*Number of Fabs*晶圓廠造價*0.1

Excess Compensation=

Compensation Table(min(Profitability,1))*IF THEN ELSE(Capital Market Funding>=2, 1 ,\

0.85) Profatbility Table(

[(0,0)-(1,1.5)],(0,0),(0.277946,0.138158),(0.586103,0.447368),(0.752266,0.

763158),(0.873112,1.06579),(1,1.5))

Bargaining Chips=(Number of Fabs*晶圓廠造價/2+Accumulated Capital/20) Accumulated Capital= INTEG (+Profit-Expenditure,0)

IC RD Table(

[(0,0)-(1000,1)],(0,0),(114.804,0.0614035),(256.798,0.192982),(374.622,0.4 42982),(486.405\

,0.741228),(574.018,0.855263),(800,0.95614),(1000,1)) RD Competency= IC RD Table(min((Government Research Projects+International Cooperation+ \

RD Manpower*1)/4,1000)) Obsolete= Number of Fabs/7

International Cooperation=min(Bargaining Chips,200)

Government Research Projects=delay3(IF THEN ELSE(Time<1983 :AND:

Time>=1975, 50 , 0 ),5) leakage= RD Manpower*0.1

HR Fabs Ratio= IC fabrication Manpower/Number of Fabs 晶圓廠造價= 2

Working= delay1(min(Local Education System*(Graduates Propensity*0.2+0.32),8000),2)

Graduates Propensity= Propensity Table(Excess Compensation) Propensity Table(

[(0,0)-(60,1)],(0,0.05),(8.88218,0.0789474),(20.8459,0.324561),(30.0906,0.

675439),(39.8792\

,0.846491),(50,0.934211),(60,1)) ~ 超額報酬的影響\!\!\!

Enroll= delay3(max(Local Education System*(0.05-Graduates Propensity*0.02),600),2)

Go Abroad=delay3(Local Education System*(0.15-Graduates Propensity*0.1),2)

Local Education System= delay1i( EducationTable(Time+4)/2,2,5000) Increase= Come Back*0.12+quit*0.45+delay3(Working*0.001,2)

EducationTable(

[(1965,0)-(2020,20000)],(1965,5263.16),(1983,5316),(1985,6053),(1987,64 15),(1989,6882\

),(1991,8054),(1993,10169),(1995,11456),(1997,12256),(1999,13339),(200 0.45,13639),(\

2019.83,15877.2)) ~ 理工科系畢\!\!\!

Attractiveness=

Atractiveness Table(Excess Compensation)

EndorsementTable([(0,0)-(1.5,1)],(0,0.01),(0.190332,0.105263),(0.339879,0.412 281),\

(0.484894,0.649123),(0.738671,0.877193),(1.15106,0.964912),(1.5,1)) Ecomonic Development Status(

[(1965,0)-(2020,55)],(1965,0),(1970,1.04),(1972,1.93),(1974,3.49),(1976,4.

49),(1978,\

6.92),(1980,10.01),(1982,10.32),(1984,14.97),(1986,23),(1988,32.63),(1990 .32,34.01)\

,(1992,43.99),(1994,47.75),(1996,52.31),(1997.91,47.61),(2000,51.72),(200 1,44.22),(\

2020,48.7281))

RD Institution HR= INTEG (Enroll-quit, 100)

Come Back=Oversea HR*(0.001+Attractiveness/100) Oversea HR= INTEG (Go Abroad-Come Back, 0) RD Manpower= INTEG (Increase-leakage, 0) IC fabrication Manpower= INTEG (employ-leave, 1000) Compensation Table(

[(0,0)-(1,60)],(0,0),(0.280967,7.89474),(0.6,22),(0.85,40),(1,60)) ~ 依照獲利能力查出換算資金對超額報酬的比例\!\!\!

Government Funds=delay3(STEP(0.5, 1973)-STEP(0.5, 1974),4) Atractiveness

Table([(0,0)-(60,1)],(0,0.05),(12.6888,0.149123),(25.3776,0.372807),\

(35.3474,0.719298),(50,0.934211),(60,1))

Number of Fabs= INTEG ( +Expansion-Obsolete,0.1) FINAL TIME = 2015

INITIAL TIME = 1975 SAVEPER = 1

在文檔中從互動觀點探討台灣半導體產業之發展 (頁 73-84)

第八章 結論與建議

8.2 研究限制與未來研究建議

參 考 文 獻

第八章結論與建議

參考文獻