本研究根據 China Global Investment Tracker，對中國五大產業(能 源、交通、不動產、科技以及金融產業)一億美元以上對外直接投資決 定因素進行分析。本研究考量之變數包含各國 GDP、平均每人 GDP、
匯率變動率、通貨膨脹率、能源與礦產出口比重、科技發展指數、股 市交易周轉率、人口密度、都市人口年增率以及中國自各國原物料進 口比率。
不同於過去相關研究，在中國對外投資決定因素分析中，除了考 量整體樣本外，更依被投資國人均國民所得高低進行分類與分析。研 究結果發現，中國對高所得與非高所得國家的投資明顯存在不同的決 定因素。研究也發現，不同產業的對外投資考量因素不盡相同，而匯 率的變動在各產業中多呈現不顯著，顯示人民幣對被投資國貨幣的升 貶，並非中國對外直接投資的考量因素。
由於本研究使用之 China Global Investment Tracker 資料庫，雖排除 以轉投資及假外資為目的的問題，但只包含中國對外大額直接投資，
建議未來的研究若能包含所有對外投資案例，研究結果應更能反映完 整情況。此外，由於順序機率單元模型(Ordered Probit Model)能夠更區 分不同投資規模，對投資動機分析，具一定參考價值，建議可做為未 來相關研究的方向。
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附錄一
China Global Investment Tracker 2014 年 1-3 月大額投資案
年分 月 中資投資方 百萬美元 股權 被投資企業 產業 次產業 被投資國 被投資國所屬區域
2014 January Sinomach $100
Kuwait National
Petroleum Energy Alternative Kuwait
Arab Middle East and North Africa
2014 January Fuyao $200 Transport Autos USA USA
2014 January China Communications Construction $680 Transport Aviation Sudan
Arab Middle East and North Africa
2014 January Sinoma $190 Hewa Real estate Construction Iraq
Arab Middle East and North Africa
2014 January Goodbaby $100 100% Columbus Holding Other Consumer Germany Europe
2014 January Power Construction Corp $240 Energy Hydro Pakistan West Asia
2014 January Meidu Holding $290 Woodbine Energy Oil USA USA
2014 January Shanghai Greenland $980 Minerva Real estate Property Britain Europe
2014 January CIC $1,280 Blackstone Real estate Property Britain Europe
2014 January China Railway Construction $1,450 Transport Rail Sudan
Arab Middle East and North Africa
2014 January Lenovo $2,910 100% Motorola Mobility Technology Telecom USA USA
2014 January Sinomach $130 Energy Chad Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 January Fosun $1,360 80% CaixaGeral Finance Portugal Europe
2014 January China National Nuclear $190 25% Langer Heinrich Metals Namibia Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 January Lenovo $2,140 IBM Technology USA USA
2014 January Sinomach $300 Ghana Water Utilities Ghana Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 February Dongfeng $1,100 14% Pugeot Transport Autos France Europe
2014 February Power Construction Corp $480 80% Camargo Correa Transport Autos Venezuela South America
2014 February Sinomach $130 Transport Autos Congo Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 February Wanxiang $150 100% Fisker Automotive Transport Autos USA USA
2014 February China Nonferrous $150 Metals Copper Congo Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 February China Nonferrous $490 Kazakhmys Metals Copper Kazakhstan West Asia
年分 月 中資投資方 百萬美元 股權 被投資企業 產業 次產業 被投資國 被投資國所屬區域 2014 February State Construction Engineering $520 Other Entertainment Congo Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 February CNPC $1,400 Energy Gas Kyrgyzstan West Asia
2014 February Three Gorges $390 33% Terra Novo Energy Hydro Brazil South America 2014 February Power Construction Corp $240 Hidorequinoccio Energy Hydro Ecuador South America 2014 February
Bank of China, China Life, and Hopu
Investment $160 2%
Global Logistics
Properties Other Industry Singapore East Asia 2014 February ICBC $690 60% Standard Bank Finance Investment Britain Europe
2014 February China Energy Engineering $160 Energy Oil Liberia Sub-Saharan Africa 2014 February Shaanxi Coal and Chemical $430 Energy Oil Kyrgyzstan West Asia
2014 February Shanghai Greenland $540
Brookfield Asset
Management Real estate Property Australia Australia 2014 February Beijing Capital $100 Silverstone Real estate Property USA USA 2014 February China Communications Construction $200 Transport Shipping Saudi Arabia
Arab Middle East and North Africa
2014 February China Communications Construction $100 Transport Shipping Cuba North America 2014 February China Communications Construction $490 Transport Shipping Trinidad-Tobago North America 2014 February China Communications Construction $400 Transport Shipping Eritrea Sub-Saharan Africa 2014 February China Communications Construction $200 Transport Shipping Tanzania Sub-Saharan Africa 2014 February Huaxin $310 85% Alcatel-Lucent Technology Telecom France Europe
2014 February COFCO $1,250 51% Nidera Agriculture Netherlands Europe
2014 February State Grid $970 51% Electrobras Energy Brazil South America
2014 February Goldleaf Jewelry $670 95% ERG Resources Energy USA USA
2014 February Hong Han $1,100 50% Genting Singapore Tourism South Korea East Asia
2014 March Zhenfa New Energy Science $250 Energy Alternative Zimbabwe Sub-Saharan Africa 2014 March Beijing Urban Construction $1,300 50% Zenith Sdn. Transport Autos Malaysia East Asia
2014 March Geely Auto $200 100%
Emerald
Automotive Transport Autos Britain Europe 2014 March China Communications Construction $1,120 Transport Autos Montenegro Europe
2014 March State Construction Engineering $210 Transport Autos USA USA
2014 March China Energy Engineering $400 Transport Autos Pakistan West Asia
2014 March China Merchants $990 Transport Autos Sri Lanka West Asia
年分 月 中資投資方 百萬美元 股權 被投資企業 產業 次產業 被投資國 被投資國所屬區域
2014 March Fosun $140 19% BHF Finance Banking Germany Europe
2014 March China Communications Construction $160 Real estate Construction Iran West Asia 2014 March State Construction Engineering $710 Real estate Construction
Russian
Federation West Asia
2014 March Tencent $500 28% CJ Games Other Consumer South Korea East Asia
2014 March Sinosteel $780 CBM Energy Gas Zimbabwe Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 March Three Gorges $900 Energy Hydro Pakistan West Asia
2014 March Hainan Zhenghe $530 95% Mateng Petroleum Energy Oil Kazakhstan West Asia 2014 March Shanghai Greenland $990
Commercial Estates
Group Real estate Property Britain Europe
2014 March Shanghai Greenland $360 Real estate Property Canada North America
2014 March Cinda $300 70% Zeller Realty Real estate Property USA USA
2014 March China Communications Construction $220 Transport Shipping Pakistan West Asia
2014 March Alibaba $220 20% TangoMe Technology Telecom USA USA
2014 March Shandong RuYi $120 Other Textiles Pakistan West Asia
2014 March SAFE $2,760 2%, 3% Eni, Enel Energy Italy Europe
2014 March Sichuan Wande $360 Real estate Ghana Sub-Saharan Africa
2014 March Beijing Capital $800 Transpacific Utilities New Zealand East Asia
2014 March Sinomach $250 Utilities Congo Sub-Saharan Africa
附錄二
Probit 模型回歸結果(續)