Analysis of Results

Threat Perception: The threat perception that drives the ROC military and society is that of attack from China. This puts Taiwan’s military in the era of a modern military, or akin to what was experienced by much of the West in the pre-Cold War era. Yet the precise nature of the threat is unlike the examples in the West that served as the inspiration for Moskos et al. as they developed the PMMM. Unlike, for example, the nation-states of Europe that experienced centuries of invasion and attack in a pattern that persisted right up until the Second World War, the enemy in the cross-strait scenario is not an alien, foreign invader. The Chinese in China consider the people of Taiwan to be their cousins, albeit distant cousins.

There is no desire to slaughter a hated enemy, as is often the case between the feuding nationalisms of pre-Cold War Europe. The harshest the rhetoric becomes is perhaps among China’s more patriotic netizens, which is a far cry from the racial hatred that the Chinese exhibit towards the Japanese themselves. It should be noted that this affinity is also a factor in why there is no fear in Taiwan of a nuclear attack by China, despite Beijing having a sizeable arsenal of nuclear weapons. Neither the pundits, the analysts, nor the people see this as a realistic possibility, and therefore the assessment of this dimension remains within the modern era, without progressing to the late modern.

Moreover, many of those Taiwan citizens with Mainlander parents, as well as those identifying as Chinese, do not tend to consider China a threat at all, or if they do, prefer to couch it in terms of there being a threat from “an outside country.” This would seem to support the view that Mainlanders and their descendants on Taiwan who still view themselves as Chinese have a closer affinity to the Chinese in China than they do to the Taiwanese in Taiwan. A more thorough analysis of this dimension would take these cultural indicators into account, in qualifying the exact nature of the threat, which may factor into the motivation for the threat. On this last point, the motivation for China’s desire to annex Taiwan is not driven by geopolitics or resource acquisition so much as a desire to win the last battle of the Chinese Civil War by defeating the KMT. It is as much an emotional imperative as a political one, and this is only apparent by taking a culturalist approach.

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Force Structure: Despite the attempts to transition the ROC military to an AVF, conscription remains the only viable form of ensuring sufficient manpower, and this is in large part why the ROC military is consistent with a Modern (pre-Cold War) military in this dimension.

Despite the effort by the military to make the AVF transition during the Ma administration, this remains a goal that is not shared by the people of Taiwan, who according to the present research would prefer to keep conscription. Indeed: the persistent threat of attack from China, with its increasingly powerful and well-equipped PLA and the hundreds of missiles pointed at Taiwan, is a strong argument for keeping the draft, rather that rushing headlong into a model of a professional military staffed by recruitment simply because this is what advanced nations do, and the government of Taiwan wishes to be perceived as an advanced nation.

Major Mission Definition: Defense of the nation against invasion by an outside military force is still the major concern, putting Taiwan’s military squarely in the modern period. This dimension is, of course, inextricably tied to the first dimension, that of perceived threat, and like that dimension, this has not progressed to the postmodern, or even the late-modern, phase.

Dominant Military Professional: While the National Defense University does an excellent job of producing highly educated and proficient leaders with a strong grounding in the study of combat, Taiwan is not yet at the postmodern stage in this dimension, that of having the dominant military professional be soldier-statesmen and scholar-soldiers. Rather, they are very competent technicians and managers, consistent with a placement in the late-modern category. The main reason for this, of course, is external factors affecting the experience obtained by Taiwan’s military leaders. Due to the lack of diplomatic allies and the international pressure exerted by China to keep Taiwan from participating in international fora and events, members of the military have not had the opportunity to take part in multinational combat or peacekeeping missions, and the decades-long standoff with China has largely been akin to a cold war, with no flare-ups or exchanges of gunfire in at least two generations. As a result, there are few officers with actual combat experience that could be labeled as “combat leaders,” and the aforementioned diplomatic blockade makes the acquisition of the relevant experience necessary in becoming a soldier-statesmen all but impossible to Taiwan’s officers.

Public Attitude Towards the Military: The survey results demonstrate clearly there is an ambivalence in the public’s attitudes toward the ROC military, again arguing for placement in the late-modern era. To achieve the postmodern designation, in which public attitudes toward the military are marked by general indifference, would be impossible so long as so many people are directly affected by the military in the form of continued conscription: ensuring that every young man, not able to obtain a waiver, must don the uniform and potentially be put into harm’s way, thereby affecting not only all these young men of conscription age, but their fathers, mothers, sisters, and every member of the family. Put simply: the people of Taiwan do not have the luxury of being indifferent to their military. Moreover, a large part of the ambivalence comes from the image of the military as a conservative, deep-blue institution in society, whereas society itself is split between those who sympathize with the pan-blue worldview of one day returning to China, and the pan-green worldview of having a Taiwan for Taiwanese.

Media Relations: Strictly speaking, the military courts the media in Taiwan today, putting it in the postmodern era. Looking closer, however, there appears to be an antagonistic relationship between much of Taiwan’s media and the military. Moreover, the power relationship has inverted: whereas the military once wielded so much power in society that it essentially controlled the media accounts of military (and indeed, non-military) matters,

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today the media has much more power to influence public perception of military issues.

Indeed, many in the media seem to gleefully report on errors and scandals in the military ranks—beyond the true tragedies, such as training deaths and the like. There are many reasons for this, not least of which is the freedom enjoyed by the media today, as well as the competition for an audience/readership, meaning that scandal and death sell more papers—following the age-old Western newspaper adage: “if it bleeds, it leads.” The military makes an easy target for this sort of sensationalistic media, because the nature of the military’s operations are inherently dangerous and hence more likely to experience accidents and deaths, but also because of the secrecy and opacity with which the military inevitably tries to handle such occurrences, thus giving the reporters who break the story the frisson of having exposed a big secret.

Civilian Employees: While there is a medium component of civilian employees working alongside the ROC military, which is consistent with the late-modern model, there are some unique characteristics behind the numbers that paint a picture of a very different situation than the one experienced by Western militaries and on which the PMMM is based. As described, the civilian employees in the ROC military appear to be concentrated at the high end and the low end: assisting in planning and decision-making, as well as performing as soldier-type employees. There is a much lower degree of civilians who—either because they possess technical skills unavailable to the service member, or because they can perform menial tasks cheaper than the ROC soldier (an unrealistic prospect in a system with conscription)—are integrated in an operational role at ROC military bases and vessels. Thus the penetration of civilian employees into the operational side of military operations is a minor component, and this dimension is most closely aligned with the modern era.

Women in the Military: Women’s participation in the military, while officially unfettered by any legalistic obstacles to full participation, can still best be described as partial integration, again putting Taiwan in the late-modern stage.

Spouses and the Military: The ROC military is consistent with the postmodern military in terms of spouses and the role they play in the military experience. In effect, the spouses have been removed from military life today, with very little overlap between the worlds of family and military.

Homosexuals in the Military: There is no law or regulation permitting homosexuals to serve in the military. On the other hand, this also means that there is no law or regulation forbidding it. And while in practice, homosexual activity has been dealt with harshly by superiors and peers, on paper at least, homosexuals seem to be largely ignored in the ROC Army, almost as much are they are genuinely accepted by Taiwan society. Thus this dimension can be assessed as being in the realm of the postmodern military. It has been said that Taiwan is not a “crusader culture,” and therefore it is little surprise that there has been less interest in effecting big, loud, society-wide change on this issue, and more in just going along quietly. As evidence of this, the present survey results indicate that 58.5 percent of respondents expressed a preference for, essentially, a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. This in fact might best suit the needs of the ROC military, at least in the present generation, which appears to be caught between young people with a strong belief in the values of democracy and personal freedom, and a more conservative, traditionalist culture that views such values as a Western import.

Conscientious Objection: The alternative service channels that allow young men of conscription age to avoid donning the uniform in favor of performing some other, non-military service puts Taiwan in the postmodern category in this dimension. However, the

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lack of combat deployments in the past several decades means that commitment to conscientious objection has not been put to the test, the way it has for example in the US military, when even volunteer soldiers declared themselves CO after receiving orders to deploy in the First Gulf War.