Chapter 5: Analysis
6: Discussion
6.7 Conclusion
A military does not run on weapons, equipment, and manpower numbers. A military runs on esprit de corps, honor, and morale. History has shown, time and again, that even a numerically inferior, less-equipped force has the potential to emerge victorious against a larger foe if these intangible elements are present. The ROC military is in a doldrums—as evidenced by the current research, the public has little confidence or trust in their military, while remaining acutely aware of the need for it. Even President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan’s military is in need of “drastic” reforms, and while there has been much analysis as to what strategic and weapons systems should be adopted by ROC defense planners, relatively little is being written on how to create a more relevant military within the current state of Taiwan society. This research is aimed at that endeavor: not to be the final word on the issue, but rather to spark a discussion of the issue—a discussion that is sorely needed, and yet is not taking place. The recommendations enumerated above are but aspects of that discussion: many analysts, sociologists, politicians, and other interested parties will no doubt have differing opinions on the relative value of such suggestions, but at least then they will be having this much needed discussion.
The current state of the ROC armed forces is often characterized as being in dire need of reform, with analysts and journalists citing a plethora of problems including inadequate training, low morale, poor discipline, limited resources, and a lack of strategic guidance among officers (McCauley 2016: 5).
To return to the Beckhard formula:
D x V x F > R
In the Taiwan context, the D—dissatisfaction—is evident. Virtually all quarters, from the government, to the populace, to the serving military members themselves, all are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs. The problem arises when one seeks to find V—a shared vision of a more amenable future state. Because of the unique cultural, social and political
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divide in Taiwan, finding a shared vision of the future remains a daunting task. The current research sought to illuminate some of the intricacies of that lack of unity, by measuring the dependent variables related to military perception against the independent variables of self-identification, ethnically, politically and aspirationally for the future of Taiwan.
Quantitative research of this nature is imperative to move beyond mere public opinion surveys in order to define the differences and hence find areas of convergence and therefore shared vision. It is the opinion of this researcher that a good start for this shared vision is the land: Despite all the differences in belief and opinion among the various groups in Taiwan, it is the land that represents home, family, and the most likely potential source of unity and shared vision. Especially as regards the defense of the nation; or rather, the defense of the land. Once such a shared vision is articulated, then policy can be made in the task of reforming the military and its place in society: only then can F—first steps—be taken on a roadmap to achieve this vision. Until then, the reverse of the Beckhard formula will remain true, and R—resistance to change—will continue to outweigh efforts to effect change.
In terms of dissatisfaction: pollsters have illustrated it, and ordinary citizens seems to instinctively be aware of it, but so far few attempts have been made to measure it using a theoretical framework such as is done in the current research using the Postmodern Military Model. Designed as a means to conceptualize the evolution of militaries from the modern to the postmodern eras, the PMMM is an excellent analytical tool for understanding the current state of the ROC military/society relationship. Research such as this will become an indispensible tool to be used by government and military planners seeking to fix the problems that exist today. Thus far, without a comprehensive and science-based understanding of the problems besetting the ROC military, the attempts at remedy have largely been band-aid solutions, which risk exacerbating the problems in the long term. Rather, a well-researched, carefully constructed plan is needed to transform the ROC military, not merely from conscription-based to an AVF, but from an institution distrusted by the society it protects, to one that is the source of national pride. Such a transformation will remain an impossibility without the understanding provided by the sort of sociological research for which this project represents both a beginning and a clarion call.
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