Chapter 1 – Introduction
1.5 Literature Review
國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
7 1.4 Expected Contribution
As the most debated topic in every Presidential election, the unification/independence issue has become extremely critical for parties to attract young supporters, the major source of votes. This thesis will analyze the cross-strait policies made by parties across the strait for the past two decades to see how much the public opinion has affected the cross-strait situation, and further examine the outcome to find out if the parties have been working on the right track to fulfill their goals. By identifying the factors shaping the cross-strait relations, we might as well predict the future of it.
1.5 Literature Review
It is important to apply theoretical tools and adopt the most suitable theories for studying social phenomenon. In the attempt of discussing the impact brought by the growing Taiwan identity, the first thing is to introduce identity related theories, I will begin with the social identities defined by Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston and Rose McDermott in their article “Identity as a Variable (2006)” to pave the way to the most popular theories regarding identity-primordialism, instrumentalism and constructivism.
Constructivism emphasizes the construction of identity is influenced by external factors, the thesis intends to explain the evolving identity construction by discussing major political events, therefore I found Sears’s and Valention’s “event-driven socialization”4 happens to hold the same view with mine. Their research proved teenagers’ political attitude and behavior could be influenced by the political events which took place during Presidential elections, one thing worth mentioning is that they also found most events that caused greater impact were negative.
Domestic academic opinions also show that constructivism is the most applied theory in analyzing Taiwan’s identity issue. Xiao Gao-yen believes national identity can be defined
4 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997
‧
influenced by relations between ethnic groups, political parties and interest groups, and limited by the culture of the society and the political system. National identity is also affected by the interactions with other countries.7The thesis focus on national identity on the island and its impact for the cross-strait relationship, therefore before analyzing the impacts, it is necessary to understand the development of Taiwan identity first. After the 228 incident in 1947, intellectuals with political ambitions went abroad to pursue higher academic achievement and devoted themselves in Taiwan Independence movements. Since 1960’s, Taiwan identity turned into a political issue, and was greatly promoted by oversea Taiwanese Independence activists. Their work still encourages Taiwan identity up to today and the related publication not only documented their contribution but also has served as materials in studying the forming and growth of Taiwan identity, i.e Forty Years of Oversea Taiwan Independent Movement by Chen Ming-chen8, Taiwan’s Independence and Founding of State by Chen Lung-chu9 andA Taste of Freedom by Peng Ming-ming10.
Moreover, Chen Fu-pian in his master thesis “History of the Oversea Taiwan Independence Movement”11 also tried to preserve the stories of oversea Taiwan independent activists and remind the young generation how precious the democracy is.
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
9
Wu Nai-teh pointed out that ethnicity is crucial for Taiwan’s political divergence since the ethnic identities are reached by the self-recognition gained from the history and certain social benefits (political, economic, and cultural resource) enjoyed by certain groups. However, the line between Ben shen ren (local Taiwanese) and Wai shen ren (mainlanders) is loose and insignificant in daily life, the tension is mainly shown when it comes to politics, hence, the identity issue is often used in political activities and mobilization.12
In accordance with the topic of this research, the literature cited here would be the researches that examined the variables in the Presidential elections in Taiwan, especially the national identity. The literature proved that the national identity has been used as the main strategy to differentiate political parties in the Presidential election in 2000, 2004 and 2008.
Niu Tse-hsun in his PhD thesis, campaign strategies of Presidential candidates- A Case Study of 2000 Presidential election, mentioned that the KMT devoted a lot of effort in telling the voters that a pro-independence ruling party would lead to a hostile cross-strait relationship. In the campaign, the DPP legitimately promoted its “Taiwanese shall rule their own country” ideology after Beijing sent its verbal warning, and the result of that year’s election showed the Taiwan identity was no longer a taboo, but an awakening of public opinion13.
Shaw Chong-hai and Tang Yu-li believed people have stronger ethnic identity would be more willing to participate in politics.14The most significant example was the DPP’s 228 Hand in Hand to Protect Taiwan activity in 2004 which attracted two millions of people
12吳乃德,〈省籍意識、政治支持和國家認同〉, 張茂桂等著《族群關係與國家認同》, 台北, 業強出 版社, 2013
13 鈕則勳, 〈總統候選人之競選傳播策略--以公元二 OOO 年我國總統大選為例〉, 博士論文, 國立政 治大學政治學系, 2001
14 邵宗海, 唐玉禮, 〈台灣地區的族群差異意識與政治參與〉, 會議論文, 政治大學國家發展研究所, 2004
‧
participants (360,000 people) identified themselves as Taiwanese and they were DPP-affiliated16. The figure was extremely critical for a tight competition. With the Taiwan identity being successfully raised, the 2004 Presidential election was a battle between“Taiwan identity” and “China identity”
Professor of the Department of Political Science from the National Chen Chi University, Sheng Shing-yuan, believed that the unification/independence issue would no doubt bring huge impact on the elections which might help the DPP at the beginning, but it might become an obstruction later17.
Professor Shen was right, the identity card could not save the DPP in 2008 since the KMT candidate also identified himself as a Taiwanese, so it was no longer effective to use the identity issue as the main campaign strategy. In fact, both parties concentrated more on social topics like economic development, pension reform, and so on.
The economic voting theory explained the reason why the China-friendly KMT party won the Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, when Taiwan identity surpassed the dual identity (both Taiwanese and Chinese) and became the mainstream. The theory was developed by Michzol S. Lewis-Beck in 1988. 18 The economic voting theory believes economic conditions shape election outcomes in the democratic countries. Good times keep parties in office, bad times cast them out. The economic voter, who holds the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot box. Although voters do not look exclusively at economic issues, they generally weigh those more heavily than any others19. In Taiwan’s case, the voters considered cross-strait
15 手牽手護台灣 兩百萬人破台紀錄, 蘋果日報, Feb 29th, 2004,
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20040229/747784/
16 最新總統民調, 連宋 43%, 扁呂 36%, TVBS, Mar 1st, 2004, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/380727
17盛杏湲, 〈統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行為:一九九 0 年代的分析〉, 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2002
18 Lewis-Beck, Michzol S., Economic and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press, 1988
19 Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & Stegmaier, Mary, “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes”, Annual Review of Political Science, June 2000
‧
cooperation would benefit Taiwan’s economy, and the DPP’s pro-independence ideology would only stress the cross-strait relationship.
Conformity theory can be applied in 2016’s Presidential election after Zhou Tzu-yu incident took place. Many people felt their national identity was challenged, and the entire society was angry. Based on the conformity theory, many people, while making voting decisions, are affected by or take into account how other people might vote20, therefore, when most voters showed their support for Tsai Yin-wen, it might encourage the swing voters to vote for the DPP.